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RBA forecasts unemployment up to 11% for year or more



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RBA FORECASTS UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO 11% FOR YEAR OR MORE

Reserve Bank Governor, Mr Bernie Fraser, is reported on AAP as forecasting unemployment as high as 11 per cent for at least, another year, in direct contradiction to Treasurer Dawkins forecasts.

In a speech to a Asia Society luncheon in New York today,

Mr Fraser said:

"We have to get used to unemployment at perhaps the 10 to 11 per cent mark that we've got at the moment for

at least another year or s o ."

This is a vast difference from the Treasurer's estimates.

In the Budget Mr Dawkins predicted that unemployment would fall to 10 per cent by June 1993, and that it would fall to below 10 per cent by August 1993.

Mr Dawkins reconfirmed this forecast in October when he said:

"I said at Budget time that twelve months from then the unemployment rate would be below 10 per cent."

(11 October 1992, Doorstop, Perth)

The RBA obviously has a different perspective. The question is: does the RBA reflect confidential Treasury revisions of Budget forecasts?

There is strong evidence that this is the case. For example, it is widely rumoured in Parliament House that Treasurer Dawkins has been urging the Prime Minister to go to a December 19 election because he is frightened by the state of the job market next year.

Mr Dawkins should publicly release any revisions of the Budget forecasts.

13 November 1992 Melbourne

COMMONWEALTH PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY MICAH

Contact: David Turnbull (06) 277 4277 D200/92