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Department of employment, education and training leading indicator



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M I N I S T E R F O R

E m ployment E ducation & T raining THE HON. JOHN DAWKINS M.P.

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DEPARTMENT OF EMPLOYMENT. EDUCATION AND TRAINING LEADING INDICATOR

Attached is a cover note outlining components of DEET's leading indicator, which gives a measure of employment growth in the economy.

Comprising motor vehicle registrations, dwelling approvals, the ANZ vacancy survey, vacancies notified to the Commonwealth Employment Service (CES), unfilled CES vacancies, and ABS vacancies and overtime figures, the index will from this month be released publicly to provide more

information on the labour market.

As noted on the explanatory minute, economists in DEBT have, on the basis of historical experience and current figures, concluded that the indicator seems to have bottomed out.and in line with Budget forecasts, expect some employment growth within three to six months.

September 11,1991

Enquiries: Wayne Bums Mr Dawkins' media adviser 06 2777460

COMMONWEALTH PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY MSCAH

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Department of Employment, Education and Training Central Office

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TIFFT Τ.Γ.ΑΤΜΝΓϊ INDICATOR . .TTTT.V 1991

The DEBT leading indicator consists o f seven series which have been shown to lead employment consistently over a long period. The first graph plots the monthly growth o f the long term trend in employment (annualised growth). The second graph shows the leading indicator together with the cyclical component o f employment

Components of the laaritny htrtlrfltnrlsfl'l

Peremtagg Qjgggg Y ta r ly QuarUrfy M onthly

Motor Vehicle, (,a) July -20.9 +83 +3.6

(Orig.) •16.9 +17.8 +113

Apprw. D well («*) July +133 + 1 7 3 +17.8

(Orig.) +173 +26.8 +23.6

ANZ Vaontdea (ia) July -38.7 -3.1 4 3

(Orig.) •38.9 -2.9 +4.7

Vacanoiei Not. ( m ) July -13.4 +29.1 +170

(Orig) -13.8 +4.9 +27 3

Unfilled Vac. (sa) June Quanar -1.8 +4.3

(Orig) ■fO.7 + 93

ABS Vaoande«(«a) May -49.8 - 4 3

ABS Overtime (aa) May -18.4 -S3

Original figure, not part of leading indicator

Feb Mar April May June July

Leading Indicator -1.15189 -133177 -1.2385 -132474 -1.19015 -1.14736

R e s u lts

The leading indicator appears to have bottomed ou t On the basis o f historical experience this suggests the possibility o f some employment growth within the next one or two quarters.

i k J L a ***> .

Les Andrews

Section Head Labour Market Projects Section

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