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Strong inbound growth expected.

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The Hon Joe Hockey MP Minister for Small Business and Tourism Media Release - 30 April 2004

Strong inbound growth expected

The latest tourism forecasts figures released today by the Hon Joe Hockey MP, Minister for Small Business and Tourism, show an improved outlook for Australian tourism activity over the coming years.

Over the forecast period to 2013, arrivals are expected to increase at an average annual rate of 6.2 per cent, to 8.7 million visitors in 2013. International visitor arrivals are expected to grow by 9.9 per cent in 2004, to 5.2 million arrivals.

“The upcoming release of the refreshed Brand Australia and the additional funding for international marketing provided in the $235 million Tourism White Paper combined with expected global economic growth, signals the start of an exciting period for inbound tourism to Australia,” the Minister said.

Direct tourism export earnings are expected to grow by 2.7 per cent to $17.6 billion in 2004 (constant 2003 dollar terms) and to $27.9 billion in 2013, representing an average annual growth rate of 5 per cent.

Domestic tourism (visitor nights) is expected to continue to record moderate growth of 0.9 per cent in 2004. Over the forecast period to 2013, visitor nights are expected to grow by an average annual rate of 1 per cent, from 297 million visitor nights in 2004, to 325 million visitor nights in 2013.

Outbound travel is expected to increase by 12.1 per cent, to around 3.8 million Australian resident departures in 2004. The long term forecasts expect that total Australian resident departures will increase by an average annual rate of 4.7 per cent, to around 5.4 million departures in 2013.

The Tourism Forecasting Council has developed an enhanced forecasting framework, which includes modifying the methodology to use quarterly data to produce annual forecasts. This new framework, combined with updated economic data and market intelligence, underpins these latest forecasts.

“The Tourism White Paper provides additional funding of $21.5 million over four years for a range of enhancements to Australia’s tourism research and statistics capabilities, including the expansion of a number of surveys conducted by the Bureau of Tourism Research and the Australian Bureau of Statistics; greater forecasting capacity; and improved dissemination of research, particularly to regional Australia,” Minister Hockey said.

The forecasts can be found on the internet at

Media Contact: Sasha Grebe 0408 974 349

Technical Contact: Dr Peter Robins: 02 6213 7125