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DEET leading indicator of employment - October 1995



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DEET LEADING INDICATOR OF EMPLOYMENT - OCTOBER 1995

The DEET Leading Indicator offemDloymentLonsist?; of seven series which have been shown to lead , employment consistently over a long period. . TDCLpl·. < £ m p ! (Y ym cA *,

Components of the Leading Indicator (seasonally adjusted!

Yearly

(percentage change) Quarterly Monthly

Vehicle Registrations (m) - October -4.9 -0.6 +4.0

Dwelling Approvals (m) - October -37.5 -10.7 -8.0

ANZ Vacancies (m) - October -7.7 -5.4 -3.7

CES Notified Vacancies* (m) - October -6.8 +4.3 +6.8

CES Unfilled Vacancies* (q) - September +3.8 -6.7

ABS Vacancies (q) - August .. -10.0 -1.9

ABS Overtime (q) - August -14.3 -5.8

* Seasonally adjusted by DEET.

Value of the Leading Indicator over the Past Six Months (standard deviations from the cyclical trend)

May 95 June 95 July 95 Aug 95 Sept 95 Oct 95

Leading Indicator 0.202 0.102 -0.016 -0.129 -0.227 -0.304

Lcvd of the DEET Leading Indicator of Bnplpyimnt end CVdicad Employment

5 2 -

— -3

o - · o

60 Ch

R E S U L T S

The continued decline in the DEET Leading Indicator suggests that the rate of employment growth will remain below its long term trend rate of growth fiy. some months.

Economic Analysis Branch Department of Employment, Education and Training December 1995