Note: Where available, the PDF/Word icon below is provided to view the complete and fully formatted document
DEET leading indicator of employment - February 1995



Download PDFDownload PDF

'-D<2vpt"

DEFT T.FADING INDICATOR OF EMPLOYMENT - FEBRUARY 1995 < ( V n p ( o < y r v A j 2 x v X . The DEET leading indicator of employment consists of seven series which have been shown to lead employment consistently over a long penod.

· i A jdCc CoiJCi^'L'f , Component» of the Leading Indicator iseasonally «djygsd)

2 -

Yearly

(percentage change) Quarterly Monthly

Vehicle Registrations (m) - February -7.0 +2.5 -2.8

Dwelling Approvals (m) - February -13.7 -10.1 +1.3

ANZ Vacancies (m) - February +22.4 -0.3 -2.6

CES Notified Vacancies* (m) - February -4.5 -7.4 +7.0

CES Unfilled Vacancies* (q) - December + 13.2 +27.9

ABS Vacancies (q) - February +25.0 -17.0

ABS Overtime (q) - February -1.6 -5 4

* Seasonally adjusted by DEET.

Value of the Leading Indie «tor over the Past Six Months (standard deviations from the cyclical trend)

Sept 94 Oct 94 Nov 94 Dec 94 Jan 95 Feb 95

; Leading Indicator +0,9612 -rQ.9030 -K),7950 +0.6591 ^0.5168 +0,3712

Level ef the Lillies lilicstir ·! Enpleymeet i l l Cytheei Empliymint

■ 3 J------------------------ 1 --------1 ----------------1 ---------------- ------------------------- ---------t--------« ------- + < 5

5 8 8 $ 8 $ Β $ 8 8 Ξ 8 8 ? ί $

4 4 4 4 4 4 t ί t ί i ί 4 4 I

RESULTS

In February 1995, the DEET Leading Indicator continued the decline which began after the peak in September 1994. Most of the component senes contributed to the decline. The continued decline in the Indicator in February 1995 suggests that growth in employment will fall below its long-term trend rate of growth later in 1995

Economic Analysis Branch Department of Employment Education and Training April 1995