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The DEETYA Leading Indicator of employment: July 1998



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DEETYA LEADING INDICATOR OF EMPLOYMENT JULY 1998

The DEETYA Leading Indicator of employment is the average of the standardised cyclical elements of six series which have been shown to lead cyclical employment consistently over a long period.

Components of the Leading Indicator (seasonally adjusted)

Yearly

(percentage change) Quarterly Monthly

Vehicle Registrations (m) - July 20.6% 6.9% -4.6%

Dwelling Approvals (m) - July 14.0% -6.6% -7.3%

ANZ Vacancies (m) - July 14.6% 1.5% -0.1%

Skilled Vacancy Survey (m) - July 21.7% -8.6% 1.2%

ABS Vacancies (q) - May 27.6% 8.8%

GDP(A) (q) - June 3.9% 0.8%

Value of the Leading Indicator over the Past Six Months*

Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 June-98 July-98

Leading Indicator -0.29 -0.21. -0.10 -0.01 0.05 0.08

* standard deviations from the cyclical trend

Levels of the DEETYA Leading Indicator of Employment and Cyclical Employment

Leading Indicator

Cyclical Employment

---------h

RESULTS

The Indicator continued to rise in July. This is largely a result of the strong increases recorded in most series in recent months including the robust outcome for real Gross Domestic Product growth during the June Quarter 1998.

Please note: The DEETYA Leading Indicator is now available on the Internet at approximately 2 pm on the day of its release at the following site:

http://www.deetya.gov.au/divisions/epad/lindm/lindhome.htm

Ben Ryland (Ph: (02) 6240 8644) Economic and Labour Market Analysis Branch Department of Employment, Education, Training and Youth Affairs 9 September 1998

The next issue of the DEETYA Leading Indicator will be released on 7 October 1998