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Fiscal budget impact of Federal Coalition policies



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FISCAL BUDGET IMPACT OF FEDERAL COALITION POLICIES 2013-14 $m 2014-15

$m

2015-16 $m

2016-17 $m

Total $m

1.0 Removal of Carbon Tax Package

Removal of Associated Expenditure

1.1 Discontinue business compensation measures - 1,053 1,684 2,350 5,087

1.2 Discontinue energy market compensation measures - 507 -13 -18 476

1.3 Discontinue land initiatives and unnecessary bureaucracies 56 172 127 85 439

1.4 Abolish other carbon tax measures no longer needed 123 604 493 248 1,468

Total Savings From Removal Of Associated Expenditure 179 2,336 2,290 2,666 7,471

1.5 Foregone Revenue From Removal Of Carbon Tax - -2,245 -4,530 -6,744 -13,519

Net Budget Impact - Carbon Tax Package (1) 179 91 -2,240 -4,079 -6,048

2.0 Removal of Mining Tax Package

Removal of Associated Expenditure

2.1 Re-phase Superannuation Guarantee increase - 175 590 875 1,640

2.2 Not proceed with low income super contribution 961 933 921 907 3,722

2.3 Abolish twice yearly mining tax supplementary allowance 146 325 313 323 1,106

2.4 Abolish Schoolkids Bonus 646 1,311 1,333 1,351 4,641

2.5 Discontinue instant asset write-off increase - 850 1,065 990 2,905

2.6 Discontinue phase down of interest withholding tax - 80 160 165 405

2.7 Discontinue tax loss carry back - 350 300 300 950

2.8 Discontinue accelerated depreciation for motor vehicles - 155 155 115 425

2.9 Reduce administrative and other expenses from scrapping the MRRT package 5 26 30 30 91

2.10 Regional Infrastructure Fund (net of funds which can not be returned to Budget, some projects have been separately funded by the Coalition - refer to section 4.0)

126 920 663 776 2,485

Total Savings From Removal of Associated Expenditure 1,884 5,125 5,530 5,832 18,370

2.11 Foregone Revenue From Removal of Mining Tax - -800 -1,100 -1,800 -3,700

Net Budget Impact - Mining Tax Package (2) 1,884 4,325 4,430 4,032 14,670

3.0 Coalition's Paid Parental Leave Scheme Package

3.1 Gross cost of the Coalition PPL - -10 -4,108 -5,684 -9,802

Less:

3.2 Existing Government scheme - - 1,653 2,012 3,665

3.3 Existing Commonwealth and State Public Sector schemes - - 557 672 1,229

3.4 Automatic adjustments to Government spending and revenue - - 665 946 1,611

Remaining Cost - -10 -1,233 -2,054 -3,297

3.5 Levy of 1.5% on company taxable income above $5 million - 300 300 3,800 4,400

Net Budget Impact - Coalition's Paid Parental Leave Scheme Package 0 290 -933 1,746 1,103

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FISCAL BUDGET IMPACT OF FEDERAL COALITION POLICIES 2013-14 $m 2014-15

$m

2015-16 $m

2016-17 $m

Total $m

4.0 Coalition's Infrastructure Package*

4.1 The Coalition’s Plan to Reduce Traffic Congestion: East-West Link -500 -600 -400 - -1,500

4.2 The Coalition’s Plan to Reduce Traffic Congestion: WestConnex Sydney 1 -250 -600 -650 - -1,500

4.3 The Coalition’s Plan to Reduce Traffic Congestion: Gateway Brisbane1 -250 -350 -400 - -1,000

4.4 Toowoomba Range Crossing - - -50 -80 -130

4.5 Pacific Highway2 -1,023 -625 -770 -145 -2,563

4.6 North-South Road Adelaide4 -20 -100 -80 -100 -300

4.7 Perth Airport Gateway3 -136 -300 -123 -64 -622

4.8 Swan Valley Bypass3 - - -40 -160 -200

4.9 Bruce Highway2, 3 -521 -648 -481 -442 -2,092

4.10 Sydney F3 to M2 link1 -5 -150 -75 -25 -255

4.11 Midland Highway - -40 -40 -40 -120

4.12 Warrego Highway3 - -50 -50 -100 -200

4.13 Melbourne-Brisbane Railway1 - -50 -50 -80 -180

4.14 Princes Highway duplication1 - -98 -120 -40 -258

4.15 Ipswich Motorway - Darra Rocklea1 - -20 -20 -25 -65

4.16 Tiger Brennan Drive widening1 -5 -20 -25 -20 -70

4.17 Great Ocean Road -15 - -5 -5 -25

4.18 Ravenswood interchange -45 - - - -45

4.19 Condah-Hotspur Road -3 - - - -3

4.20 Princes Highway East -5 - - - -5

4.21 Mt Barker interchange - - -4 -4 -8

4.22 Outback Way - -11 -11 -11 -33

4.23 Kin Kora roundabout - -13 - - -13

4.24 Shoalhaven River Bridge planning - -5 -5 - -10

4.25 Jane Street extension - -5 -5 -10 -20

4.26 Narellan Road - -22 -9 -9 -40

4.27 Moree Bypass stage 2 - -5 -5 -5 -15

4.28 Dalrymple Road - -5 -10 -5 -20

4.29 D'Aguilar Highway - -5 -5 -6 -16

4.30 Local Road Projects (27 projects) - -26 - - -26

4.31 Bridges renewal programme - -60 -60 -60 -180

Total Coalition Infrastructure Commitments -2,777 -3,807 -3,493 -1,435 -11,512

Less:

4.32 Existing Funding Allocated from the Nation Building Program 1,685 1,571 1,571 1,306 6,134

4.33 Do not proceed with Melbourne metro rail - - 25 50 75

4.34 Do not proceed with Cross river rail 40 272 45 96 453

4.35 Do not proceed with Perth urban rail public transport - 25 25 50 100

4.36 Do not proceed with Tonsley park public rail transport project - 15 16 - 32

4.37 Do not proceed with Airport rail - planning 3 - - - 3

4.38 Do not proceed with Mulgrave River bridge 40 - - - 40

Net Budget Impact - Coalition's Infrastructure Package -1,010 -1,923 -1,810 67 -4,676

*Key:

Unless otherwise specified funding for these projects is greater than the Government's commitment in the forward estimates period:

1 Funding for this project has been accelerated.

2 3 This project is funded without a Mining Tax.

4 The Coalition's plans for this project are different from the Government's current commitment.

The Coalition's funding commitment for this project is greater than the Government's beyond the forward estimates.

2

FISCAL BUDGET IMPACT OF FEDERAL COALITION POLICIES 2013-14 $m 2014-15

$m

2015-16 $m

2016-17 $m

Total $m

5.0 Coalition's Health Policies

Strengthening General Practice 5.1 Doubling practice incentive payments for General Practice teaching - -22 -47 -50 -119

5.2 Investing in rural and regional teaching infrastructure - -30 -15 -8 -53

5.3 Investing in the nursing and allied health workforce - -3 -5 -5 -13

5.4 Investing in medical internships -6 -11 -11 -12 -40

5.5 Apply unallocated funds for health workforce development - 43 52 60 155

Net Additional Funding to Strengthening General Practice -6 -22 -27 -14 -69

Boost Frontline Healthcare and Research 5.6 Full implementation and expansion of bowel cancer screening - - -7 -39 -46

5.7 Type 1 Juvenile Diabetes research commitment -7 -7 -7 -7 -28

5.8 James Cook University Institute for Tropical Health -15 -21 -3 -3 -42

5.9 The Coalition's policy for Dementia research - -40 -40 -40 -120

5.10 Funding from reprioritising Australian Research Council spending 16 31 29 28 103

Net Additional Funding to Boost Frontline Healthcare and Research -7 -38 -28 -61 -133

5.11 The Coalition's policy to index the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card -1 -14 -33 -54 -102

5.12 National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health - -4 -4 -5 -13

5.13 An easily accessible, fully integrated e-Mental Health System -3 -2 -1 - -5

5.14 Peter's Project (cancer care centre) -10 - - - -10

5.15 Bear Cottage (children's palliative care) -2 - - - -2

5.16 Ballina Hospital -5 - - - -5

5.17 Albury-Wodonga Cardiac Catheterisation Laboratory -5 - - - -5

Net Budget Impact - Health Policies -37 -80 -93 -134 -344

6.0 Coalition's Education Policies

6.1 Discontinue development of an Australian Baccalaureate - - 3 3 5

6.2 Reduce additional funding for Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA) 7 6 6 3 23

6.3 Redirect Better Schools - Secure Schools additional funding - 5 5 - 10

6.4 The Coalition's Policy for Schools Safe and secure schools - -6 -6 -6 -18

Independent Public Schools Fund -10 -20 -20 -20 -70

Flexible literacy learning for remote primary schools -4 -6 -6 -6 -22

Online language learning for pre-school children - trial - -5 -5 - -10

6.5 The Coalition's policy for Better Apprentice Support -5 -9 -34 -38 -85

6.6 A New Colombo Plan -8 -13 -20 -20 -60

6.7 The Coalition's Policy for Better Child Care and Early Learning -2 -3 -3 -3 -11

Net Budget Impact - Education Policies -21 -50 -80 -87 -238

7.0 Other Coalition Policy Commitments

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

7.1 The Coalition's Policy for a Competitive Agriculture Sector Boost funding to rural research and development corporations - -25 -25 -25 -75

Better market access for small exporters - -4 -4 -4 -11

Stronger biosecurity and quarantine -8 -4 -4 -4 -20

Assist native title respondents with costs -1 -1 - - -2

3

FISCAL BUDGET IMPACT OF FEDERAL COALITION POLICIES 2013-14 $m 2014-15

$m

2015-16 $m

2016-17 $m

Total $m

Improve minor use chemical registration - -2 -2 -2 -6

Agriculture in education -1 -1 - - -2

7.2 The Coalition's Policy for Fisheries -3 -2 -2 -2 -9

7.3 The Coalition's Policy for a Strong and Sustainable Forestry Industry - -5 -5 -5 -15

Net Spending - Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries -13 -44 -42 -41 -140

Crime and Terrorism

7.4 Supporting Australian victims of terrorism overseas -30 - - - -30

7.5 The Coalition's Policy to Tackle Crime Safer Streets - Protecting Communities from Crime - -20 -15 -15 -50

Restore and further boost Customs funding for cargo inspections -13 -25 -25 -25 -88

Net Spending - Crime and Terrorism -43 -45 -40 -40 -168

Environment

7.6 The Coalition’s Plan for a Cleaner Environment Emissions Reduction Fund 0 -300 -500 -750 -1,550

Green Army -1 -47 -96 -157 -300

Other Environment Policies 0 -71 -65 -27 -163

Net Spending - Environment -1 -418 -660 -934 -2,013

Coalition's Plan to Grow Tasmania

7.7 The Coalition’s Plan to Grow Tasmania (3) -2 -32 -31 -10 -74

Net spending - Coalition's Plan to Grow Tasmania -2 -32 -31 -10 -74

Building Stronger Communities and Regions

7.8 National Stronger Regions Fund - - -200 -200 -400

7.9 Community Development Grants programme -2 -160 -160 -20 -342

Redirect Building Better Regional Cities programme 25 - - - 25

7.10 Mobile Blackspot programme - -25 -25 -25 -75

Net Spending - Building Stronger Communities and Regions 23 -185 -385 -245 -792

Employment Policies

7.11 Restore and further boost the ABCC - additional funding on top of redirected Fair Work Building Inspectorate funding -5 -10 -10 -10 -36

7.12 Employment Participation Plan Indigenous employment (Australian Employment Covenant - funding of four trial sites) -20 -25 - - -45

Incentives to employers to employ over 50s - -20 -82 -86 -188

Jobseeker relocation allowance and job commitment bonus for young people -1 -5 -21 -48 -75

Redirect Mature Age Participation (job seeker assistance) 3 8 - - 10

Net Spending - Coalition's Employment Participation Plan -18 -42 -103 -134 -297

Net Spending - Employment Policies -23 -53 -114 -144 -333

4

FISCAL BUDGET IMPACT OF FEDERAL COALITION POLICIES 2013-14 $m 2014-15

$m

2015-16 $m

2016-17 $m

Total $m

Border Protection Policies

The Coalition’s Plan for More Secure Borders 7.13 Operation Sovereign Borders Joint Agency Taskforce (OSBJAT) -6 -2 -2 -2 -10

7.14 Clear 30,000 Border Backlog 2 38 . . -95 -55

7.15 Regional Co-operation to Combat People Smuggling Improved regional intelligence and joint policing operations -15 -17 -17 -17 -67

Engage with local communities in Indonesia -7 -6 -3 -3 -20

Tighten regional border controls and improve identity management -20 -7 -6 -6 -38

Appoint special envoy for Operation Sovereign Borders . . -1 . . - -1

Enhanced air surveillance -7 -10 -5 -5 -27

Enhanced search and rescue capacity -18 -27 -13 -13 -71

Interception and transfer of asylum seekers -69 -89 -27 -14 -198

7.16 Border security - withdraw taxpayer funded immigration assistance to illegal boat arrivals 28 35 20 17 100

7.17 Border security - dividend from stopping the boats (4) 93 274 309 413 1,088

Net Spending - Border Protection Policies -19 189 256 274 701

Coalition's Plan for the Automotive Industry

7.18 Reverse change to FBT arrangements for cars -75 -331 -617 -772 -1,795

Net Spending - Coalition's Plan for the Automotive Industry -75 -331 -617 -772 -1,795

Coalition's Plan for Manufacturing

7.19 The Coalition’s Plan to Boost Australian Manufacturing Export Market Development Grants -13 -13 -13 -13 -50

Manufacturing Transition Grants Programme - -25 -25 - -50

Net Spending - Coalition's Plan for Manufacturing -13 -38 -38 -13 -100

Transport Policies

7.20 Improve road safety - support for Keys2Drive -1 -3 -3 -3 -10

7.21 The Coalition's Plan for Aviation En route rebate scheme -1 -1 -1 -1 -4

Inquiry into best practice aviation -1 - - - -1

Expansion of CASA Board - . . . . . . 0

Net Spending - Transport Policies -3 -4 -4 -4 -15

Resources and Energy

7.22 Exploration development incentive - -25 -35 -40 -100

Net Spending - Resources and Energy 0 -25 -35 -40 -100

Supporting Business

7.23 Company Tax rate cut to 28.5 per cent - -400 -300 -4,200 -4,900

7.24 Other Small Business Measures -1 -3 -3 -3 -11

Net Spending - Supporting Business -1 -403 -303 -4,203 -4,911

5

FISCAL BUDGET IMPACT OF FEDERAL COALITION POLICIES 2013-14 $m 2014-15

$m

2015-16 $m

2016-17 $m

Total $m

Defence and Veterans' Affairs

7.25 The Coalition's policy for fair indexation of Military Super (5) - -249 -261 -270 -780

7.26 Re-build ADF Gap Year programme - -18 -38 -58 -113

7.27 Restore Veterans' advocacy funding -1 -1 -1 -1 -4

7.28 Centenary of ANZAC funding -4 - - - -4

Net Budget Impact - Defence and Veterans' Affairs -5 -268 -299 -329 -901

Further Coalition Policy Priorities

7.29 Coalition Plan to Reduce Drownings -1 -3 -3 -3 -10

7.30 The Coalition's Policy for Disability and Carers - -1 -1 -1 -3

7.31 Marriage vouchers trial - -17 -3 - -20

7.32 Prime Minister's Indigenous Council . . . . . . . . -1

7.33 National Commission of Audit -1 - - - -1

7.34 ACCC Funding to ensure scrapping the Carbon Tax means lower prices -3 -6 -1 - -10

7.35 The Coalition's Policy to Enhance Online Safety for Children . . -3 -3 -3 -10

7.36 The Coalition's Policy for Women . . . . . . . . -1

7.37 Coalition's Policy for Tourism - -1 -1 -1 -3

Net Spending - Further Coalition Policy Priorities -6 -31 -12 -8 -59

Net Budget Impact - Other Coalition Policy Commitments -179 -1,687 -2,324 -6,509 -10,700

8.0 Other Announced Coalition Savings

8.1 Reduce Public Service headcount by 12,000 through natural attrition 303 1,198 1,790 1,920 5,212

8.2 Restore humanitarian immigration intake to 13,750 p.a. 141 267 372 489 1,269

8.3 Redirect Carbon Capture and Storage Flagships program 45 67 150 87 349

8.4 Reduce Automotive Transformation Scheme 48 182 182 88 500

Net Budget Impact - Other Announced Coalition Savings 538 1,715 2,494 2,583 7,330

9.0 Further Coalition Savings

9.1 Discontinue Carbon Farming Initiative - advertising campaign 1 - - - 1

9.2 Reduce payments for grants to Australian Organisations . . . . . . . . 1

9.3 Reprioritise Indigenous Policy Reform program 5 13 12 12 42

9.4 ITSA (reduced administration of minor insolvencies) 3 7 7 8 25

9.5 Streamline Family Court processes 2 6 9 13 30

9.6 Redirect Portrayal of Senior Australians in the media . . 1 . . - 1

9.7 Redirect National Crime Prevention Fund to the Coalition's Safer Streets Program - 20 20 . . 41

9.8 Reduce former Department of Climate Change 7 13 13 13 45

9.9 Discontinue direct Commonwealth funding to ICT centre of excellence - 21 21 - 42

9.10 Discontinue ACT Pokies trial 20 22 - - 42

9.11 Foreign Aid - grow in line with inflation 656 873 1,230 1,741 4,500

9.12 Discontinue establishment of Senegal diplomatic post 2 5 3 3 14

9.13 Revert to pre-2010 election personal staffing ratios 1 2 2 2 7

9.14 Further 0.25 per cent p.a. efficiency dividend - reduce advertising, 0 69 139 220 428

9.15 Discontinue Manufacturing Technology Innovation Centre 2 5 5 5 16

9.16 Discontinue Community Cabinets 3 4 4 4 13

9.17 Water Buybacks - re-phase four years' spending over six years 25 174 210 240 650

6

FISCAL BUDGET IMPACT OF FEDERAL COALITION POLICIES 2013-14 $m 2014-15

$m

2015-16 $m

2016-17 $m

Total $m

9.18 Reduce National Low Emissions Coal Initiative 10 13 19 - 42

9.19 Suspend National C02 Infrastructure Plan 8 6 - - 13

9.20 Discontinue RET Counsellor to India . . 1 1 1 3

9.21 Geothermal and Tidal - allocate $40m of existing ARENA funding - 10 15 15 40

9.22 Connecting renewables - connecting to the grid - suspend until committed demand is identified 25 50 55 55 185

9.23 Not proceed with further increase in instant asset write-off to $10,000 - 150 150 -100 200

Net Budget Impact - Further Coalition Savings 769 1,464 1,915 2,231 6,382

7

FISCAL BUDGET IMPACT OF FEDERAL COALITION POLICIES 2013-14 $m 2014-15

$m

2015-16 $m

2016-17 $m

Total $m

10.0 Public Debt Interest (6) 62 273 444 535 1,313

11.0 Coalition Budget Impact

Total Coalition Savings (Including Public Debt Interest) 3,431 11,202 11,741 15,593 41,969

Total Coalition Policy Commitments -1,247 -6,785 -9,937 -15,207 -33,178

Net Impact of Coalition Measures on Budget (Fiscal Basis) 2,183 4,417 1,804 386 8,791

Net Impact of Coalition Measures on Budget (Cash Basis) (7) 1,141 2,429 1,943 576 6,090

Note: Carbon Tax abolition - growth dividend (not included above) (8) - 100 400 600 1,100

12.0 Coalition Debt Reduction

Other Savings Affecting Debt not included above (9) 3,548 3,781 1,646 992 9,967

Debt reduction as a result of Coalition Policies 4,689 6,210 3,589 1,568 16,057

Note: -1,042 -1,988 140 190

Totals may not add due to rounding.

. . Not zero, but rounded to zero.

- Nil.

References:

(1) There is a -$2.5 billion difference between cash and fiscal estimates over the forward estimates period.

(2) There is a -$0.9 billion difference between cash and fiscal estimates over the forward estimates period.

(3) Excludes the Midland Highway commitment identified elsewhere at item 4.11.

(5) There is a +$0.7 billion difference between cash and fiscal estimates over the forward estimates period.

(7) For major differences between cash and fiscal see (1), (2) and (5).

(9) Reduced equity injections to the CEFC and NBN Co.

(8) As calculated by the Parliamentary Budget Office, based on Treasury modelling of the macroeconomic impact of the Carbon Tax.

(4) Represents a conservative estimate of the savings to be achieved by the Coalition's comprehensive suite of Border Protection policies, as modelled on the basis of the scenario analysis as set out in the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook. These savings correspond to reducing illegal maritime arrivals to the long term average rate of 370 per month by the end of 2014 and then gradually continuing to decrease them to 50 per month by 2016-17. The Coalition expects to do better than this. Under the previous Coalition Government there were only a total of 272 illegal arrivals in its last 6 years.

(6) Public Debt Interest is calculated from the net Budget impact of the Coalition's policy package plus further interest savings from reduced equity injections to the CEFC and NBN Co.

8