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ABC News Breakfast -

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(generated from captions) ambition s to own all of Britain's biggest broadcaster,

Sky. Now a key Independent MPs

have played a big part in the

design of the Government's

carbon tax plan and their

support is vital for it to get

through Parliament. One of them

is the independent member

roent. He joins us now from

Canberra. How do you rate the chances of success of Julia

Gillard going out and as she

says wearing out her shoe

leather selling this idea to

the general public? This is up

to her and up to I am sure Tony

Abbott to try to knock it down.

In the end we've gone through a

process of tret trying to get a

good policy responding to the

science and the economics and

the best experts in Australia

pointing us in a direction I

think the politician s let down

this through if country and the country if we can't get

that will be the next three or four months. Tony Abbott

yesterday was speaking to or

describing of this fragile

agreement that Julia Gillard

has in place, seemingly

indicating there might be a

weak link, that the support

doesn't complete ly exist in

the lower house and the upper

house. Are you aware of that?

Is there a weak link in this

agreement? Not that I am aware

of. So he is just flying kites

there? You have to ask him. I

know you want this - you've

been speak about how important

this, is you want this to get

through. As far as you're aware there is enough support for

this to go through both houses

of Parliament? Essentially what

we have done through is through

a process of trying to come up

with the best package for

Australia in response to both

the science question that's

been put to us by the scientist

and the economic response

that's been put to us by the

economists. We are no further

advanced, though, thatton 42nd

Parliament got to and failed

three times. So the next three

months are THE most important

and critical part of this. I am

confident there is majority

support in the the lower and

upper house. It's a huge money

churn, robbing Pete tore pay

Pieter according to one

commentator. How shore are you

substantial difference to that all of this money makes a

Australia's emissions? I

disagree with the premise that

it's money churn. It is a

market and in all markets there

is buying and selling. That is

the very point of trying to get

people to pay or innovate. I

live in a country that is

confident and bold and can

innovate and does innovate. I

would certainly hope that is

what the business community -

in fact irknow that is what the

business community will do in

regards to this from all the

conversation to date. I would

critics through the dlit also add for those that are

political process of the next

three months, particularly the

Coalition, we've all got jour

joint party room documents from

2009 that say you back this

plan I think it would be really

disappointing if this now came

down to some sort of political

campaign for people's own

existence, rather than looking

for good policy for the right

reasons for the nation. You've

the most important things that always said that this is one of

this Parliament has to deal

with. Yet even under this plan

our emission also still rise.

Was that difficult for you to

sign off on? No, I think the

issue that we're trying to risk

manage in a conservative way is

the number of share price

shocks. It is not only the

front end where everyone now

can see that we've shot low and

gone stloe. But the most

important one at my end is the

back end price shock and the

question of when and how is an

international agreement going

to be reached. In my view,

there will be one reached

within the next five to 10

years. And so it's that back

end price shock that is the one

we've got to manage. And so if

there is projections of growth

within carbon outputs within developing economies up to

2020, that is a reality of the

lack of that international

agreement at the moment. But,

as night follows day and anyone

who is following this closely,

that international agreement is

coming and we will see those emissions peak some time

throughout the 2020s, and

hopefully with agreement from

the global community substantially decline through

to 2050 and beyond. You and

Tony Windsor won concessions

for transport and for farmer,

particularly projects that you

hope will ease that transition

for them. Will that be enough

in your view to allay the

substantial fears that do exist

in those communities? Sorry you

might have to repeat that. I

will give you a moment to fix

thatary piece. We have Rob

Oakeshott speaking to us out of

the Canberra studio and he is

struggling with the ear piece.

I was asking you about the con

investigation - concessions

that you and Tony Windsor won

for road transport workers, for faerments and the like,

investment projects there as

well. Will that be enough to

allay the substantial fierce in

the community or will there

still be anxiety? Aren't

concessions for Tony Windsor

and myself. This is a committee

process and there was agreenlt from everyone around the table

on the policy reasons for

excludeing both fuel for

motorist and for heavy road

transport in regards to te

inquestionities that would have

in payments for - the in in

equities that would have in

payments. We've all talked

about a very fast train and it

hadn't happened - let's build

it so we can have the behaviour change. In regards to whether

that is enough to a) get it

through a Parliament, I hope.

So but that is the debate we

will go in and b) whether it's

enough for 22 million

Australians. I think that is

the stage we're also in where I

hope we haven't lost people

over the last five years o

political embarrassment and

there's enough people who are

willing to go to the website,

the small business go to the

hotline 1800 777 725 and look

at what's nit for you. Really

good to talk to you this morning. Thank you for joining