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(generated from captions) Tonight - still shaking. It's just really tiring. I think

that's what it is. It's just really exhausting. Christchurch residents rattled by another

series of quakes. The people of Christchurch I'm sure they just

want this to end. Quite

frankly, I'm sure they're over

all of this and they want a

sense of normality to return.

This Program is Captioned Live

Good evening, welcome to

'Lateline', I'm Ali Moore.

Hundreds of regional leaders and global economic thinkers

have descended on Jakarta for

the World Economic Forum on

East-Asia. There couldn't be

more timely. The economic

numbers out of the US this

month have been shocking, reinforcing the Asia and the shift in economic

power from west to East. With

the US mired in debt and no relief for the millions unemployed, the question is being asked whether America is headed for a double-dip. In a

post crisis recovery you

certainly cannot rule out certainly cannot rule out a

relapse. The US economy lacks

the cushion to be able to

withstand a blow. Certainly we are heading into a season that blow could come from our own making given the

dysfunctionality and the

polarisation of our political

debate in Washington right

now. Our guest top is Stephen now. Our guest top

Roach, the non-executive

chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia who talks us through America's

prospects and China's changing

economy. He joins us from New

York later in the program.

First, our other headlines.

Going nowhere - more airline

disruptions expected as Chile's ash cloud across New Zealand and

Australia. Thousands of

Syrians flee across the Turkish

border as the army cracks down on protests. And taking the on protests.

children away - the father of a

child who was taken overseas

child who was taken overseas by

his former wife without consent

calls for law reforms. Tens of

thousands of homes in Christchurch are without power

tonight after a series of

earthquake rocked the city. 10

people were injured and the

panicked and rushed on to the powerful tremors.

streets fearing a repeat of the

earthquake disaster in February. Dominique Schwartz reports from Christchurch. Get

away. The people of

Christchurch were once again running from buildings and

dodging debris as another

series of quakes rocked the

city. It's just really tiring.

I think that's what it is. It

is really exhausting. You sit

here in town and wonder if the

house is standing. This

was like, it kept rolling.

I've only felt one other quake

that rolled like you're on a

ship. That was freaky. A 5.5

magnitude quake struck early in

the afternoon and a magnitude 6

an hour and half later.

Buildings in the CBD already

damaged in previous quakes took

another hit. I just said to my colleagues New Zealand should

decide whether it is an ash

cloud or either quake. I can't

deal with both. Amateur video

effects of the quakes as people

ran from shops on to the

street. Shopping malls and

offices were evacuated, power

was cut to 50,000 homes and

businesses, and roads became gridlocked as thousands of

residents fled the inner

city. Pretty shaken up actually. It is a pretty

traumatic time for everyone.

There are bricks down the road

it is weaving around them to

get out. Houses south of city were left prooek ly get out. Houses south of the

perched after fresh ground shock so much it turned In the eastern suburbs, the

to liquid. Burst water mains

added to the flooding. For the people of Christchurch I'm sure people

they want this toned. I'm sure

they're over all of this and

want a sense of normality to

return. We can all feel their

frustration. But they've got

to know that we stand beside

them, that we are totally

committed to rebuilding the

city. Everybody is tired.

We've been through more than

just about anyone should have to even contemplate to even contemplate going

through. A coronial inquest

into a billing collapse that

killed 116 people in the February earthquake was

interrupted by today's quakes.

Families who lost loved once

just months AgForced to flee

the building. Terrible

reminder. We go numb for a

period of minute or so. An

emergency operations centre has been set up

been set up here on the edge of

the central business district

and residents are being told to prepare for a long night with aftershocks. Dominique

Schwartz, 'Lateline'. Ir line

flights across the country were

in disarray for most of today

after an ash cloud cash caused the closure of Melbourne

Airport. 60,000 people have been affected by the delays

which saw flights cancelled and from Tasmania and New which saw flights cancelled to

Zealand. This evening flights are getting back

are getting back to normal but

there is another cloud of

volcanic ash believed to be

heading towards Australia which

could close airports again. Fitzsimmons reports. On the

last day of a public holiday

much of the country, the timing

couldn't have been worse. The

Australia saw the closure of ash cloud high over southern

Melbourne Airport late

yesterday with no estimate of

when it would reopen. It is a

long way away and there's no

assurance we're going to get on a flight earlier. Earlier this

year flights in parts of northern Europe were grounded.

A volcano in Chile has sent ash hemisphere grounding hundreds

of flights and leaving tens of

thousands stranded. We manage

to get on a flight tomorrow evening at

evening at 8.30 if ahead. The cancellations began evening at 8.30 if that goes

on Sunday. It through holidays

and sporting fixtures into

disarray and many passengers

were angered at the lack of

communication as communication as airlines struggled to cope. We have been

told we can't re-book the

flights here. We have to go

home. Wait on the phone for

three hours and there's nothing

they can do here. I

this staff waiting here and not

being able to do anything.

They're sitting here why can't

they re-book us. They're make

us wait on the phone. By early

afternoon Qantas and Virgin had

resumed flights in and out of Melbourne hand other locations

in an effort to clear the

massive backlog. We have a very full schedule today and

the planes are very full. We

can accommodate every today.

There are some held back

tomorrow. Qantas flight to and

from New Zealand and Tasmania

are grounded as the pash cloud

drifts to wards South Australia. There are more

clouds of ash expected over

Melbourne which means more

disruptions are on the

horizon At this stage the ash

cloud is over New Zealand. It

is over Tasmania and it has

shifted from time to time over

Melbourne. There is a watching brief on a number of other

cities including Adelaide and

Canberra. We do expect that there will be future delays

this week. There are still long coups here at Melbourne Airport, but after a day of delays delays and frustrations, people are getting aboard flights.

How long the airport will remain open is another question. At this stage, it's

still very speculative. still very speculative. We have to be watching it on the

model and satellites and it may

actually disperse before it

gets up to south-east

Australia. Those flying in the

next few days will no doubt be

hoping it does just that. Hamish Fitzsimmons, 'Lateline'. The Defence

Minister Stephen Smith has

issued a statement saying

in the Defence Forces are

concerning. Three former members told tonight's four

Coroner's pra flaerm Coroner's pra flaerm beaten or sexual assaulted and urged to

keep quiet. One was a former

naval cadet who described being

raped as a 17-year old by three

male cadets and said she was

told by investigators to lie on

tape by stating that the sex was consensual. The Defence

Minister says tonight's allegations will be is investigating abuse of past and present Defence Force

members. Submissions to the

inquiry are due on Friday. The Federal Government

the beef industry to compensate

farmers. The suspension of

live exports to Indonesia has

left tens of thousands of

cattle with nowhere to go. Graziers are demanding compensation. compensation. The Agriculture Minister says he's ordered Meat

and Livestock Australia to allocate 500-0000 from their contingency funds. Their early response doesn't look positive.

It looks like they're actually

going to say no. I'll use my

direction powers if that's the case. The former ambassador to Indonesia Bill Farmer will head an inquiry into Australia's

entire live export industry. Western Australia will become

the first State to ban Kronic

and other synthetic cannabis

products. The products will be

illegal from Friday, but there's concern people will

rush to stock up before the

deadline. Alisha O'Flaherty

reports from Perth. There's

been mounting concern about the number of number of people using synthetic cannabis synthetic cannabis such as

Kronic. From Friday the drugs

will be illegal with hefty

penalties in place.

Possession of this substance up

to a $2,000 fine or a two-year

gaol term. The ban comes after

a two month investigation by

several Government agencies

into their harmful effects. Hall effects. Hall allows nations in

particular, seizures and long lasting lasting perception disorders. Several retailers in Perth sell the products and

there's concern the impending

ban will encourage people to stockpile over the next stockpile over the next few

days. It sounds leak a four

day fire sale what. The

government seems to be saying

on the one hand this is a dangerous

dangerous drug we're going to

ought law it, on the other hand

you've got four to days to do what you like with it. Some

retailers say they expect the drugs

drugs to sellout before Friday. take them off their shelves

immediately and hand them over

to police to dispose of. WA

will be the first State to ban

the drugs with several others also considering taking action.

The WA Government has called

for a national ban and will

raise it at the next Health Minister's meeting. The Federal

Government can certainly do a national ban is the best system

rather than what we're doing.

As we've heard, we wanted to

get in and sort this out

quickly. But Government admits banning these only a start and that people

will continue developing new

drugs to bypass existing laws.

Federal Police have charged 18

asylum seekers over the week

long riots at the Christmas

Island desense centre in March.

Police used bean-bag bullets

and fooer tear gas to control

up to 100 people armed with

metal poles and concrete

blocks. The asylum seekers

have been charged with a range

of offences including the use

of weapons, burglary and destroying Commonwealth

property. The men are due to appear in the Christmas Island court on

Wednesday. The Syrian army has

re gained control of the town of Jis Al-Shughur where up to

120 policemen were killed just

over a week ago. Thousands of

residents in the area have fled

in advance of the army and are

seeking refuge along the Syrian

Turkish border. There's

growing concern the military

crackdown on protests in Syria

and Turkey is proving to be one of the most vocal critics. Ben

Knight reports. The Syrian army

says it is now in control of

the city of Jis Al-Shughur.

Exactly what happened there is

not yet known. Syrian state

television says there has been

heavy fighting against armed

gangs in the city. But the opposition says this was actually a crackdown on

soldiers who've turned against

their own army as a warning to

other soldiers in other areas. TRANSLATION: When soldiers

started opening fire on protesters, some within the military objected. There was

an internal clash and many

soldiers were killed. Some defecting soldiers are among

the refugees streaming to wards

the Turkish border. TRANSLATION: Two months ago

they called us for a meeting and told us there are

infiltrators in Syria and

terrorist gangs. When we went

to the streets of Deraa we

found women, children and the

elderly chanting for freedom. There are hundreds of refugees set up refugees set up in makeshift

camps near the Turkey border.

They're unable to cross over

with their livestock but they're unwilling to go back to

their homes. This is their homes. This is why.

These pictures claim to show

troops heading to washed the

north of Syria to join the crackdown firing on protesters

as they pass. The Syrian regime is increasingly

isolated. It is partly by choice. The Syrian President

Bashir al-Assad is no longer

taking calls from the United

Nations Secretary General Ban

Ki-Moon. International anger is growing, but options are

few. We're not entirely

powerless, but we are

constrained by the need for international support for

anything that we do. Russia and

China have said they'll veto

any resolution that authorises military action against Syria. Some Rashid countries are

reluctant. They fear the chaos

that could follow the fall.

Assad regime. Patience is running out running out the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan

has been constantly talking to the Syrian President. But now

he's describing his crackdown

as savagery. Recep Tayyip

Erdogan opinion carries weight in this region, especially now

he's just won his third term as

Turkey's Prime Minister. It makes him

powerful politician since the

founder of modern Turkey.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has

deliberately set about trying

to position Turkey as power-broker in the Middle

East. He's reached out to Iran

and Syria, he's trashed the military relations with Israel

in protest over the Gaza wall

while on the other hand he kept

Turkey in NATO and its ambition

to join Europe alive. to join Europe alive. The Turkish economy is booming and

stability it hasn't known for

decades despite the odd

terrorist attack from Kurdish

except r except risks. They worries party worries party is taking the

done trip down a path towards

religious government and curds

are angry his promises to them

have not been fulfilled.

Regional leaders and global economic thinkers are gathering in Jakarta for the World Economic Forum on East-Asia.

With the US having a horrible

month of economic data and talk again I've double-dip resession, it is Asia where the

hope lies and nowhere more so

than China. Our depeft tonight

is Stephen Roach one of the

most influential economy list on Wall Street. He sent three

years in Asia before returning

to New York where he lectures

as Yale University and is the

non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He joined

me a short time ago. Stephen Roach welcome to 'Lateline'. Thank you Ali

pleasure to be but. The world

economic forum is focusing East-Asia and the

sustainability of regional

growth. That question probably

applies to China more than any

other country. It is a

Government that's trying to turn

turn its economy from one that's been driven by exports

to one that hopefully be driven

by the domestic consumer. How

confident are you that China

not fall off a cliff? I'm very confident. I think the 12th

five-year plan that was enacted in March of this year lays out

three very important building

blocks for this transition.

Number 1, focusing on new

sources of job creations and

services, number two boosting

wage income by very aggressive

urbanisation, moving tens of millions of people each year from the countryside to

cities, and a number three,

boosting the social safety net,

especially by invest ing

insocial security, private pensions and

Do you that and the consumption

share of the Chinese GDP will rise

rise from very low levels up to

about 43% of GDP over the next

five years. I want to ask you

about that. I suppose that savings

savings ratio in a minute. How

pivotal is this moment in think it is very important.

The Chinese miracle has been unprecedented over the last 30

years, but it's mainly been

driven by a producer society

that defends on vigorous growth

in external demand. In the

post crisis world, external

demand that originates in demand that originates in the

United States and Europe and

especially Japan will be unusually weak and so China

knows this and is figured out

it's got to draw much more

support from the internal demand of its

consumer. It has the strategy

and I think the commitment and

the wherewithal to deliver on

that plan. At the same time,

though, of course, inflation

becoming a real problem. How

do you encourage people to

spend more when prices are

going up? Inflation is a

problem. The Chinese

authorities put a very high

priority on this in their public statements. They need

now to deliver on those

concerns and I think they need

tighter monetary policy. Monetary policy China right now and short-term

interest rates need to go

higher. Is there a question mark over that delivery? They raised short-term interest

rates four times since the last

October, but the benchmark short-term lending rate of 6

.3% is only 1 percentage point

above the headline inflation

rate. It needs to be higher

than that. I publicly urged

the Chinese authorities to do

that. I'm headed to China in

the next few hours to once

in that regard. If they don't,

what are the risks to the path that they're on? Look, I'm

confident that they will move aggressively to fight

inflation. Inflation is

historically a difficult issue for

for China and if they don't

move now, they'll have to move

later and it will take a

tighter monetary policy than

otherwise might be the case.

Which would be problematic for their

their growth momentum. You've

stressed a great deal of

confidence that China is on the

right path. Getting back to that question of building a social security net which social security net which is

vital if you're going to reduce

that savings ratio that sits at

something more than 50%

is extraordinary in western

terms, how quickly can they do

that? Building something like

that from scratch takes a very

long time. Keep in mind 11

years they established a national social security fund.

The infrastructure is in place

to do it. Ts it simply needs

more funding. They also need to area of private pensions and in

beefing up the local government

social security fund. These

plans are in place and the coverage is increased dramatically especially in the

last five years in terms of the

number of people or workers

that are covered. The really

think challenge now is to boost

the asset the under management

by these plans and China with

its massive reservoir of $3

trillion in foreign exchange

reserves, certainly has the where withdrawal to fund these

plans. It is time to step up and inject public money into

these plans. It is often said

that the legitimacy of the

Chinese Government is based on

economic growth and that would

keep a lid on any dissent. Do

you think that that argument

still holds with the growth in

social media, the growth in

information flow? Do you see

any prospect of spring slight up rising in

China? The key challenge in

China is absorb surplus labour

and to continue

enough growth that boosts

employment. That's why I'm

very much in favour of a

shifting the sources of employment away from

manufacturing which really

doesn't generate enough jobs

per unit of GDP to more of a

labour intensive services model

in areas like wholesale and retail retail distribution, domestic transportation, hospital and

leisure. If China does that

they can flow slow the doubt great and great and maintain rapid

employment growth. I think the

Chinese Government is very

focused on services in their

12th five-year plan and they'll

be able to stay the course. You

done see any prospect for

unrest? No. I think these fears of the Jasmine Revolution

in China are overblown. The

Chinese authorities are focused

on social stability and job Croatian as the means to keep the

the social instability concerns

at bay. Let's look at the US.

Of course China funds the

massive debt of the US. It's

been a very grim month been a very grim month for economic statistics including

more dismal numbers on the

employment front and we've

already had unprecedented stimulus. Are the latest numbers do you think

serious? I think the US is in

a very difficult and tenuous

post crisis recovery. Job

creation is lagging in large

part because businesses are not

confident on demand prospects

for American consumers. I

think American consumers are think American consumers are

the weak link in the chain, so

much is focused on getting

businesses to hire, they're not

going to hire given the shaky

prospects for consumer demand.

Consumers are overly indebted,

short of savings, lacking in

income and not having the

support from property and

credit markets and facing 24

million of them either

unemployment or

under-employment. This is a under-employment. This is a very difficult environment for

the United States. A slide back

into recession? I hope not.

In a post crisis recovery you

certainly cannot rule out a

relapse. The US the cushion to be able to

withstand a blow and certainly

we are heading into a season where that blow could come from our own making given our own making given the dysfunctionality and the

polarisation of our political

debate in Washington right now. That raises the question I

guess, do you see a possibility

that Congress would not raise

the debt ceiling very, very quickly needing to be increased? We all cavalierly right thing, it will be

difficult, but this is a

Congress that repeatedly has

done the wrong thing over the last several years. last several years. The ability of the Congress to

oversee the financial system is

certainly not been one of its

more shining moments. That's

not to say that the financial services firms don't bear

responsibility for that as

well, but unlike China, where there is a

a very well articulate the a very well articulate the

strategy, the concept of

strategy in Washington has

become something of an oxy moron. A very different

government system. What are

the options here for President

Barak Obama and for the Federal

Reserve. Interest rates have

been at zero for some two years

now? I think key point for

Washington is to recognise that

the strategies that worked in

putting a bottom in economy during the depths of

crisis are not the same strategies that are needed to

foster sustainable recovery in jobs and jobs and economic activity in competitiveness. We seem to be

stuck in the same quagmire

believing that what we did in

the depths of 2008 and 2009 is

exactly the right recipe to deal with

deal with our long-term growth

agenda and that is not the case

at all. We need to get much

more creative in

strategies for recovery rather than containment of economic

and financial crisis. Such as

in Such as focusing on in Such as focusing on the

victims of this post crisis

period, the 24 million workers

who are either unemployed, who

are under-employed, who need are under-employed, who need

retraining, re-skilling, and long-term transitional

assistance to get their balance sheets and economic conditions

back in order. Can Obama presidential election with

employment currently at 9.1%

but the best estimates say next

year it will be 8%. It

going to be very challenging

for the President. It depend s

what the Republicans put up in

term of a candidate. An

extreme candidate from the

Republicans will make it a lot

easier for President

Obama. When you look at the

outlook for the US as you paint

it and also for

does that mean for countries like Australia and other

countries in this region which

are very much tied to China? I

think Australia is think Australia is well positioned to sustain positioned to sustain the current growth model in China,

but it need to recognise that

the Chinese are sending a very

clear signal that the current resource intensive

manufacturing led growth model

is not a sustainable one for

China as well. That's not to

say that the China is going capitulate in this manufacturing led resource

intensive growth model, but

over the next five to 10 years

it's going to be a very different mix of economic

output for China than Australia

and other resource exporters are used to and I think Australia needs to be certainly

mindful of that important shift

in the mix and composition of

commien these d. GDP growth going

going forward. Does that quickly other markets for our raw materials? I think

Australia certainly need to be

more diversified in the sources of its external demand as well

as the sources of its own GDP

growth. It is always risky for

any economy, whether Australia,

the United States or China, to

put too many of its eggs in one basket Stephen Roach much food for thought and many thanks for

joining 'Lateline' this evening. Thank you, Ali. Always a pleasure. Unlike the

US and the UK, Australia has no

criminal law against parental dialled abduction. Instead Australia relies on

international cooperation to

try to get children back. But that hasn't helped Lachlan

Leishman. Almost three years ago

ago his son was removed from

Australia by his former wife

without his consent. Lachlan Leishman

since. He says it is proof the

system is broken. A Senate

inquiry is currently

considering whether more can be

done to return abducted children.

back to the government at the

end of October but Lachlan

Leishman says he's tired of

waiting. Michael Atkin

reports. Lachlan Leishman fell

hard for Gina Fargnoli a beautiful

beautiful classical pianist.

After a whirlwind romance they

married in June 2003 We both

liked travelling talking and

reading books and we thought we

could have a good solid

relationship based on an intellectual intellectual thing I suppose. Gina became pregnant. They

They named their baby boy

Cameron. While they were

celebrating the birg a carding

to Lachlan cracks began to

appear in his relationship and his two other children became

an issue. She started saying

things to me like you can't see your other two children, forget

all your friends that you've made

made up to point in your life.

It is you Cameron and I . In 2006 they 2006 they divorced. Young

Cameron lived with his mother

and Lachlan visited regularly. Gina moved from Noosa to

Sydney. Despite the distance,

Lachlan Leishman continued to

visit Cameron once a month.

That all changed in September

2008 when he called to plan a weekend outing. The phone

disconnected. The mobile

wasn't answering. I rang wasn't answering. I rang the

agent that she was letting from

and she said she broke the lease last week and she's gone. Gina had mentioned plans

to take their son to Italy and

Lachlan had raised concerns.

Never thought Gina would take

Cameron overseas and vanish

without a trace. It violated a Family Court order requiring

one month's reason notice of

Cameron and a copy of a return

plane ticket. There was never

any domestic violence. Nothing that she's could

that she took him out of

Australia because I'm an evil

person or something wrong with

me. The Family Court has now

granted him full custody. His

esstaged wife and son are on an international airport watch

list and an Interpol yellow list and an Interpol yellow

notice for missing children has

been issued. He's also engaged the help of the Federal Police and the Attorney-General's department.

In 2009, a private detective

tracked Gina to her birthplace, Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe. Just when investigators were getting

close, a major roadblock loomed. When I first met Gina,

she was working for the then Opposition Leader, Morgan

Tsvangirai, who is the current Prime Minister of Zimbabwe. When the private detective was

trying to track Gina down in Zimbabwe, Mugabe's

that's the only word to use,

came around to their office and

said why are you harassing this woman? Lachlan Leishman believes Gina Fargnoli

believes Gina Fargnoli is being

protected by powerful interests

in Zimbabwe. She has multiple

passports and has been able to

travel extensively. Now

Lachlan Leishman wants Australian Government to do more. At International Missing Children's Day last year, he confronted the Attorney-General, Robert McClelland. His words to me in

front of my friend and the Minister For Home Affairs,

Brendan O'Connor, was I will

get your file out and get back

to you. I never heard from him again. Robert McClelland says

he asked his department to look into Lachlan Leishman's case. I'm satisfied that my

department is taking department is taking all effective action that they possibly can. This included contacting Zimbabean

authorities and offering to ignore alleged breaches of the

Family Law Act by Gina Fargnoli

if she immediately returned

Cameron to Australia. The Attorney-General said this was one of the few options available to the Government. We

don't have any international cannot send a team of AFP

officers into another country

to remove a child or person. We just simply cannot

do that. Lachlan Leishman's

case is not a one off. Last

year 125 children were wrongly

removed from Australia. 74

have been returned. Michael

Nicholls is an expert in

international child abduction law. convention is effective in most

cases. The 1980s Hague

Abduction Convention is widely regarded as being one of the

successful instruments from deterring international child abduction. Both Australia and

Zimbabwe are signatories, but

Zimbabwe struggles to enforce

it. There are 8 a 5 contracting

states to this convention.

Almost inevitably they vary in

their ability to apply it. International child abduction is not currently a

criminal offence in Australia,

but it is in the US and UK. The advantage of criminalising

abduction is that you can

engage international assistance through Interpol and you can

seek the recovery of the child

through the mechanism of Attorney-General's request, the

Family Law Council recently considered whether international child abduction

should be made a criminal offence.

recommend some changes to the law,

law, it advised against

criminalisation. We need to be

careful in sending a message which, yes, potentially has some power as a disincentive,

that we don't actually make it

more difficult to have children

returned and in particular, to

cause a situation which is likely to drive the parent who has removed the child further underground. But Lachlan Leishman

Leishman says the law should change. It might make people think twice about actually

doing the act if it is illegal.

At the moment it is not even a

slap on the wrist. At his

Cairns house Lachlan Leishman

waits. It is almost three

years since he last saw Cameron. That heart-wrenching,

it's impossible to describe.

It's... You know, what could I

say to Cameron if I could see

him? I mean, just that I love him. Michael Atkin reporting.

'Lateline' contacted Gina

Fargnoli by phone, email and social

social media to request an

interview. Gina Fargnoli has

not taken up the offer. To the weather. Windy with rain at

times in Sydney and Perth, the

chance of a shower or two for Canberra, fine in the other

capital cities. That's all from us. If you'd like to look back at tonight's interview with Stephen Roach or review

any of Lateline's stories or

transcript, you can visit transcript, you can visit our

website or follow us on Twitter

or Facebook. I'll join you

tomorrow night. Good night. Closed Captions by CSI.