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Australian Agenda -

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(generated from captions) This is PM Agenda. Good

afternoon, welcome to the

program. I'm David Speers.

There were hugs, cuddles and

even kisses between the Prime

Minister and her Ministers,

even Kevin Rudd today, a sign

of just how relieved Labor is to get this carbon tax

through the House of

Representatives today. The question now is will some of

the political heat come out

of this issue, or can Tony

Abbott sustain the intensity

of his attack on the carbon

tax right up until the

election. Coming up this

house we will be talking to

climate change Minister Greg

Combet and Greg hunt, also

the panel of commentators.

The political dynamic is

likely to shift as the bills

go through parliament. We're

going to check in on the

latest top news stories. Thanks. The

Government has passed its controversial carbon tax

through the house. The

Victory was marked with hugs

and kisses in the chamber,

the Prime Minister even

celebrating the moment by kissing Kevin Rudd. Julia

time to describe the Victory Gillard later used question

as a historic moment. We

have debated climate change

in this parliament and beyond

for more than 10 years. There

have been reports, there have

been inquiries, there have

been debates, there have been votes. The opposition lost

this round, but is vowing to

continue the fight all the

way to the next election. We

on this side will work every

hour of every day to repeal

this bad tax, based on a lie.

We will oppose it with every

breath in our bodies. There

stranded after the New are major concerns the Rena

Zealand coast could be on the

verge of sinking after a

major crack appeared in the

container ship's hull. A fly

overthis afternoon revealed

the worst case scenario is

unfolding as heavy seas

continued to bash the vessel.

The contain ers have fallen

off the deck of the ship.

These pictures shot this

afternoon aboard a military

helicopter clearly somehow a

large split forming in the

hull of the vessel. The Prime

Minister says there is still

a real chance the Rena will

come apart. I'm as frustrated

as they are we have had a

situation where the oil which

is a large amount of oil is

causing this sort of damage.

All I can say is we're

committed to minimising

that. In the ocean around

the vessel containers Bob up

and down, some leaking and

bubbling an unknown

substance, some have already

come ashore. We have lost

more than 30 containers from

the stern and midships and we

are confident that none of

those contain dangerous

goods. The majority of those

containers are empty The

Government is adamant its

disperseant is safe, but not

convincing some. Look at it

now, it's disgusting, embarrassing, our government

embarrassed of our is embarrassing. I'm

government. As oil lined

their beaches Mucatoo locals

lined the shore line seeking

answers. A battle is

ongoing to protect the Dell

see history. We have all the

seafood in this town, we have

it in the rivers, out here,

now we haven't got it. This

morning the oil came ashore

thickly as the Rena continued

to buckle. What could be

mistaken for a clump of oil a

dead penguin entold in the

mess. The troops have arrived

to scoop up what they

sprint, there will be a can. This is a marathon not a

constant clean up. We don't

know how long it will occur

for. This is the man who was in charge of the ship reef. We're not allowed to when it ploughed into the

show you his face amid fierce

from his lawyer he could be

targeted by the public. He's

been granted bail as locals

continue to wonder how his

journey went so long. A

community forum in

north-western NSW has been

told that Australia must

preserve prime agricultural

land to guarantee its food

security. The forum at

Gunnedah is the latest of

coal seam gas protests to be

stabled around the country.

Alan Jones hosted the event,

a said it's not simply about

bark mining companies. The

crisis may not be with us nothing today the crisis will right here and now, if we do

beat us many tomorrow. We're not fundamentally here to

talk about mining. This is a

food security for are you of

the I'm talking about the

need and we are today to

preserve prime agricultural

land so that Australia can

guarantee its food security.

There will be more

disruptions for Qantas

Transport Workers Union has passengers tomorrow. The

confirmed that Qantas members

will strike for four hours in

airports across the nation. A

second beach has been closed

in Perth after reports of a

Shark sight ling. A jet sky

rider reported seeing a Shark

at Mullaloo beach in the

city's North. The local

council says the beach will

remain closed. The sighting

came two days after a fatal

Shark attack. The United

States has accused the Iran

yan government of plotting to

a sass shat. Hillary Clinton

says they will need to be held accountant. A foild

bombing attack on a

restaurant in Washington. A

quick check on the forecast

storms in the east, cooler

showers in the southwest.

That's all the latest news

for now. Back to David Speers

in Canberra as PM Agenda continues. Chris, thanks

very much. Which ever way you

look at it today was a historic day in parliament.

The policy issue at the

centre of political debate

for some years, putting a

finally happened in the House price on car bon. It

of Representatives. The

carbon tax bills were passed

along with the numbers locked

in by the Government during

those months and months of

multi party talks. The bill

still has to go through the

Senate, next month, but given

Labor and the Greens have the

numbers there in the upper

house the real battle was

always going to be right here

in the lower house. Steering

the carbon tax through the

painfully long negotiations house of representatives took

with Labor, the Greens and

those independent MPs, it was

a slow process, it delivered the results Julia Gillard

wanted. Around 9.30 this

morning the final vet was

held. Is 74, know # 2, the

question is resolved in the

affirmative. These bills as a

mepded have been agreed to.

This will be, this will be

remembered as the day the Gillard government broke

faith with the Australian

people and gave itself a

round of applause for doing

so, Mr Speaker. Shame on this

government the people of

Australia were lied to by

this government before the election and they haven't

been listened to by this

government since the election

and Mr Speaker this Prime Minister shouldn't just say, "Sorry" she should resign. The Prime Minister was

clearly relieved to see the

bills go through. She

celebrated the moment with

kisses and hugs with her

Ministers as we can see here, even Kevin Rudd, the former Prime Minister reached in for

a celebration and a show of

support for the Prime

Minister, remembering of

course that Kevin Rudd lost his Prime Ministership after

shelving his Emissions

Trading Scheme that he couldn't get through

parliament after the dramatic

change of leadership on the

liberal state. They thought

the prospect of Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd sharing a hug

and kiss was hilarious: the

passage of bills next month

won't end the political

pressure. Tony Abbott is

keeping the heat on the Prime

Minister over this. Indeed is

demanding an election before

this thing is introduced.

Says he will repeal it too

even if he wins the election.

He wasn't the only one fired

up in parliament today. In

the public galleries the

anticarbon tax protestors who

have been fairly busy in

resent months, staged a

couple of memorable rallies

in Canberra, turned up

outside MPs offices. They

were back this the galleries

to make their protests know,

wave after wave of them stood

up declaring, "Democracy is

dead." Order.

Order. Chanting from the

gallery, "No mandate, no

mandate, no mandate, no

mandate" Order, the house

will come to order. Order.

Order! , "No mandate",

"Democracy is dead" was the

chant from the protestors, in

case you were struggling to

work out what they're saying.

The cameras were controlled

of the parliament, we're unable to get footage of them

in the public gall rice. For

five or 10 minutes there they

were struggling to keep

control. The leader of the

government in the house has

had a bit to do with the protesters after they turned

up after his office, blaming

Tony Abbott and the Coalition

for encouraging them along.

Which is to quote him,

"Written in blood" this is

the sort of language used by the Leader of the Opposition,

the whipping up of people in

the gallery, day after day,

so they've gone from not only

acting hysterically in the chamber, they've gone now

from stacking the galleries,

including, Mr Speaker, people

who were in the speaker's gallery and therefore signed

in by members of parliament

in order to be in that

gallery today. We no last

time, Mr Speaker, that they

took some of these

demonstrators to lunch in the members' and guests dining

room prior to their

disruption and today we saw

their complete lack of

respect for our democratic

processes, their complete

lack of respect for our parliamentary processes.

Well, we know the passage of

these carbon tax bills isn't

about to shift the view of

those demonstrators in the

galleries today, but what about more broadly is this

going to shift the politics,

seeing the bills go through

the lower house and indeed

the Senate next month. Can

Tony Abbott keep up his

intensity on his focus and the focus of the nation right

up to the election. We will

be talking to the climate

change Minister Greg Combet

about the significance of

today. Whether now is the

time to be introducing a

carbon tax in Australia.

First I spoke earlier this

Climate Action Minister, Greg afternoon to the shadow

hunt. Greg hunt thanks for

your time. Now as a student

you wrote an award winning

thesis on pricing carbon in

which you concluded that

ultimately it is by harnessing the natural

economic forces which drive

society that the poll lucks

tax offers us an opportunity

to excerpt a greater control

over the environment. Today

you voted against a poll luks

tax or carbon tax tax. Are you comfortable with your

position? I'm comfortable

with the position. For 20

years I worked in the space

of the environment and using economic instruments to the

best effect. It is about

using good economic

instruments for a good

purpose, not bad economic

instruments for a bad

purpose. So fair to say you

support the idea of a price

on carbon, not this one?

No, my stru is you have to have the right economic

instrument. I support

strongly the very method we

set out of a reverse auction to capture the lowest cost

emission reduction not a dead weight cost of electricity.

This is a betrayal of the

people and eat election promise, it's a dead weight

tax on electricity. So every

time you open the fridge, every time you open or you

turn on the air-conditioner,

every time you turn on the

lights that's an additional

cost. That's what the carbon

tax is made up of. It's made

up of overwhelmingly

increasing economic costs. It

is about putting a price on emissions, you're right. Tony

Abbott has made it clear he

wants to repeal this whole

thing. He said it was a

pledge written in blood. How

long will it take the

Coalition to get rid of the

carbon tax if you win the

next election? Firstly we

will move as the first order of business of a new

government to put in place

legislation to repeal the

carbon tax and then to put in

place our direct action

program. We expect that if

the ALP loses the election

and there is an express,

clear absolute mandate to repeal the carbon tax in

opposition is they will stand

aside. Wayne Swain says he'll

stand-by this legislation,

even in opposition is? He

would say that. You don't

think Labor would stick to

what they have fought so hard

to do against the popular

tide in this term of

government? I do not think

they will thumb their nose at

the Australian people a

second tile of the they

didn't give the Australian

people a say at the last

election of the they haven't

given the Australian people a

say until now. I think that

if they suffer a significant

defeat the reality of life is

that they will not stand in

the way of the repeal of the

if they do we will go to a

double dissolution. To do a

double dissolution would get

some time to point, 2015 by

the time you would do that?

We would take action

the ALP will not stand in the immediately. We expect that

way of repeal. For them to

stand in the way of an

express, clear, absolute

mandate to repeal the tax

betrayal of the Australian would be a further act of

people. The point is if they

do stand-by this, this carbon

tax, you have to have a double dissolution. To do

that through the constitution

it takes a long period of

time to get to that point. In

that time the carbon tax

would become an Emissions

Trading Scheme, it would be

bedded down, a lot of businesses would have made

investments based on the

carbon tax, coal-fired power

stations may have transitioned to cleaner

energy forms. All those

investments they would make

would be worthless? Let me

be absolutely clear here, we

will move to repeal the

carbon tax, we will repeal

the carbon tax if

elected. Are you saying

businesses shouldn't be

making clean energy

investments now? We want people to clean up the company. There are two

different issues here. If

people take steps to clean up

their businesses that's good.

The problem with the carbon

tax thoi is it doesn't clean

up Australia. It's all pain

without gain, Australia's emissions will go up under

the carbon tax and we will be

purchasing three and a half

billion worth of foreign

carbon credits to do the job

that the carbon tax was meant to do. For business here and power generators in particular what you're saying

by saying you're going to

repeal the taks at all costs

you're giving them a

disincentive right now to

invest in cleaner energy.

We're making a pledge to the Australian people that we

will have a contact with

middle Australia to protest

protect Australian their cost-of-living, to

manufacturing by making sure

that we are not bearing a unilateral, dead weight any sort of assurance now tax. Can you give industry

that investments they make

while this carbon tax is law

will be worthwhile? Well, industry under the

government's own assumptions,

under the government's own

increasing Australian modelling will essentially be

emissions between now and

2020 and instead will be

buying foreign carbon credits

of the that's what is

actually going to happen of the Are you saying they

should be investing in clean

energy now or not? What

we're saying is we will

provide a plan to clean up Australia. The Government provides a plan that will

drive up electricity and

spend 3 and a half billion

off shore. Just on this

question, should industry

invest in clean energy?

Anybody that takes action

under the renewable energy target, anybody who takes action to make their

businesses more efficient, that's good. The carbon tax doesn't do that, because the

cost of electricity price

rises will be passes through

according to the Government's

modelling, according to

Professor Garno and energy companies themselves of the

it doesn't clean up electricity, not changing demand. It does mean for a

business they're going to

face a much higher cost on

the emissions. There's an

incentive for them under the

carbon tax, the whole point

to invest in cleaner energy investment is what this thing

is all about. Are you saying

they should do that or

shouldn't do that? The

problem you've outlined the

theory. The Government's own modelling shows the practice

is completely the opposite.

The Government's modelling

shows that rather than

cleaning up Australian

emissions we will be sending

3.5 billion by 2020 straight

to foreign carbon traders.

The best case scenario is any

change occurs overseas, worst

case scenario it's 3.5

billion dollars, they're

beige into pond see schemes

and carbon credits. Snu don't think this carbon tax is

going to put an incentive any

business to invest in clean

energy? We don't think the

carbon tax is effective, it

does one of two things,

increases the cost of

electricity, electricity is

passed on. For those

businesses that are

export-exposed and it -

cannot pass on the cost they

face the risk of moving off

shore of the it doesn't hurt the plan net but it hurts

Australia. Under your direct

action plan there will be any

penalty on heavy polluting

industries to clean up the act? We will provide

incentives. As long as people

adhere to business as usual

there wouldn't be any

penalty. But we have said

beyond that there is a system

where if people produce more

than their business as usual

there will be a cost. That

was set down on 2 February,

2010, nothing has changed.

There is a difference between

the tax incentives, between

car rots and sticks. There is

one classic example l. The

Government has conceded that

their tax will not clean up

any of the cool fired power

stations between now and

2020. Of all the hundreds of

different emissions trading

schemes, of all the hundreds of different emissions

schemes in the world what

have they turned to up - to

clean up the power stations,

the direct AXA approach by

the Coalition. That is the

only scheme they have picked

as cleaning up power stations

of the they want to close

them down, we want to clean

them up. They have conceded

their tax won't clean up

power stations of hundreds of

schemes around the world

they've picked the Coalition's one to clean up

power stations. Speaking of

schemes around the world, if

between now and 2015 we do

Seymour global action on

pricing carbon would you be

prepared to stick with the

carbon tax? We have said in

2015 we will review global

progress. What do I regard as

the chances of the United

States adopting a cap and

trade scheme, the equivalent,

zero. That's the benchmark.

The US has to have a national

scheme for you to agree to a

carbon price in Australia.Ist

if the US doesn't neither

does Canada, not Korea,

China, that is the real world test. That's the Coalition

test as well, no scheme here

until the US has a national

scheme? I do not believe

that it is remotely possible

that the US will have such a

scheme by 2020, let alone by

2015, nor do US congregsal

leaders, White House leaders

or any other senior

officials. ? That ee slent

you wouldn't agree to a

scheme? We will review it

in 2015, I'm telling you what

is nigh judgment in the

course of international

events Thank you

Pleasure. We will take a quick break then back with the Minister, Greg Combet.

we will take a quick break

then back with Greg Combet.

Welcome back, we heard

from the Shadow Minister for climate action Greg hunt.

We're joined by the climate

change Minister Greg Combet

on the day this carbon tax

bill has gone through the House of Representatives.

Minister, some relieve for

you to see the passage of the

bill of the you've been

involved in a number of battles through your career.

How significant was this one?

It's very good we have got

the legislation through the

House of Representatives. It

will go off to the - off to

the Senate for debait. It's not until it's got through

parliament I can focus in

implement of the legislation.

It's a big step today. The

main concern expressed from

Tony Abbott, certainly from

industry critics of the

carbon tax is now is the

worst time to do it given the

global economic uncertainty,

the possibility of a double

dip global recession. Can

you name any leader who says

it's a good time to do it?

When you - can you name a

good tie of the if not now

when, if not us doing it in

this term of parliament, who

and when. There would be some industry leaders that agree

with you on that? There are

industry people who have been

calling for a carbon price a

long time. If you go back 10 years ago the business

counsel sill had a round

table to discuss this issue,

came up with a view that a

market mechanism like an Emissions Trading Scheme that

sent a signal into the

economy to reduce emissions,

drive clean energy the

business council was

supportive of that years

ago. People are saying it's

the wrong time, Heather

Riddert is saying the timing

couldn't be worse? We don't

agree with them. The Australian industry group was arguing a different position.

The fact of the matter is we

do need to make the reform in

our economy of the we have

got to reduce the emissions

intensity of l of our industries, the energy

generating sector to drive

productivity to make sure our

economy is competitive in the

years to come. It's the

economies that invest in

clean energy and Lowy missions technologies for their industry that will be

the most competitive. All the

industry leaders are wrong on

this? Not one you can

cite... I Don't think you can categorically say all the

leaders have the view. I can

assure you over the last 12

months for the years before I

was in parliament when I was

a trade union owe figures

this has been discussed

extensively of the over the

last 12 months as we have

consulted with business

leadership in the private

consultations there are

people who raise concerns.

Perhaps the difficulties in

Europe at the moment means that timing should be different. Fundamentally

everyone nos this reform has

to be made of the they

support it being made. Issues

about... What is that? ?

Their over concern is

starting price, $23 a ton for

carbon. What's the closest

figure around the world for a

price on carbon, the European

price is $14 a ton $14 or

$15 dollars. You pointed to

the disruption in international markets, it's

affected carbon markets as well. Particularly in Europe

a major debt cries sis occurring. One of the merits

in having a fixed price

period introducing an

Emissions Trading Scheme is

to provide stability and

pricing before we go to the

international linkage with

carbon markets A much higher

level than the rest of the world. It was only two

months ago, the rest of the

world's carbon pricing

markets were pretty much in accord with where our fixed

price start is of the we're

confident that the markets

will recover. Are you

entirely concern where the

carbon markets will be in 3.5

years time. It might go down?

We think we're in the right

place with a fixed place,

when it goes to fully flexible trading scheme we

think we will be there or

thereabouts with the

international price. How

certain can you be about

that? Given the global volatility, it's fallen to

$14 in Europe, how can you be

sure it's going to go up to

$23? It's what is called a

market Volatile, it can go up

or further down? We're an

open trading economy. The

dollar has traded every day,

up and down. Why not start

with a floating price. Why

are we fixing at $23. International commodity

prices go up and down every

minute of every day. Some of the variations in the price

of aluminium on the world

market vary more in a day or

so then the impact of a

carbon price will be on the

production of aluminium under

the carbon pricing arrangements Why have you

fixed such a high price?

It's a market and the market

from 1 July 2015 will set the

price. We think by the time

we get there we will be able

to smoothly link with international markets, obviously international

prices. Behave set this price

to start to drive emissions

reductions in our economy. We

have got a 3 year fixed price

period before we do go to the

international linkages in

carbon markets to provide

stability to get this scheme

going, start the emissions reductions, predictability

and price before we do the

linking. In those first three

years Australian industry is

going to have to pay a higher

price than their competitors. It's important

there's stability in the

price over the first few

years. It will allow further negotiations to take

place in the international

community under the UN in

relation to international

agreement on a tackling

climate change and reducing

emissions, provides predict

built of price for investors, investing in electricity

generation, they know where

they're going to be in 2015.

Not inexperienced handling

markets, hedging on prices,

they'll be watching what is

going on in international

markets, they will make their decisions in the same way

they do by the way with any

other good and service they

deal with in a market

sense. When will Australian

emissions come down?

They're growing at 2% a year, would continue to grow

without carbon pricing

significantly, 25% higher

levels expected to be by 2020 if no carbon price was in

place. The carbon price will

start to drive the emissions

down, the minimum emissions

reduction task thereby a

reduction of 160 million

tonnes in 2020. That's the

minimum, equivalent to a 5%

reduction. If you take what I

said a minute ago about where

business as usual would take

us, 25% above year 2000

levels, a 25% cut, a

significant turn around, a

significant reduction in our

net emissions. Yes, I know

the point you're going to

make. Where do Australian

emissions come down? The atmosphere does bt know

nation - national boundary,

this idea it's legitimate to

link up with overseas

markets A pond see scheme?

What are they opposed to

foreign trade, a zen phobic

argue: a ton of emissions

validly produced

overseas. That is the key

validity there have been problems... Environmental

values is a ton reduced in

our economy There have been

probable less, fraud have

been exposed, criminal

involvement alleged? That's

why we have put in place a

number of things, one of them

is to ask the climate change authority chaired by Bernie

Fraser, former Reserve Bank

govern, to provide advice to

this government and future

governments about the carbon cred dits that could be accessed as off sets by

Australian business in

overseas markets to make sure

that we only kwaul Fai in our

scheme ones where there are

valid reduction of carbon

pollution overseas, important

for the integrity of the scheme Final question, do you

expect the poll picks of this

to shift at all the bills are

going through the parliament?

Well, I think over time

it's going to. First of all I think people will see that

the government is very

determined to make a reform

of this nature. There is

support for tackling climate

change within the community.

People will recognise that we

stand up for what we believe

in, make important reforms, tackle hard issues. We're

doing that on a range of

fronts, this is one of them.

What will become increasingly

evident is what a sharl tan

Tony Abbott is. That's going

around terrorising everyone.

He's going to repeal it when

he gets this, this is not

going to happen. When this

comes in on 1 July people

will see that the world won't end that everything Tony

Abbott says is a load of

rubbish, trying to terrify

them. People will have in

their pockets an advanced

payment on the pension increase, the family tax

benefits rgs a million people

will drop out of the tax

system, tax cuts throwing

through to middle and low

income households, support

for jobs and reduce the ee

misses. Climate change

Minister, Greg Combet thanks

for joining us. Our panel

Nicky Saver and Kerry annual

sh. Stay with us. -- Kerry Anne Walsh.

Welcome back, time to

check in on the latest news

headlines. Here's Chris.

The Government has passed its controversial carbon tax

through the House of Representatives today, 19

bills passed through the lower house. It was marked

with hugs and kisses in the chambers, the Prime Minister

even celebrating the deal by

kissing Kevin Rudd. The

package will go to the Senate

with the carbon tax set to

become tax next month. The

cargo ship stranded off New

Zealand's North island has

developed large cracks. 70

containers have fallen and

more oil leaked into the Bay of Plenty and continues to

wash up on the beaches. The

ship's captain has faced

court operating a vessel in a

dangerous manner. His name

has been sup pressed. Broadcaster Alan Jones is

calling on the Government to

support Australian farmers,

it comes after land owners in north-western NSW become

subject to a number of mining

leases because gas seams were

found under the planes. Alan

Jones demanding those under

threat receive political protection. There will be

more disruptions for Qantas

passengers tomorrow with the

Transport Workers Union

confirm the grund crews for

the airlines will strike for

four hours. Staff in Sydney

will stop from two hours at 6

pm and 4 pm Melbourne crews

will begin their action at

7am. Brisbane will be an hour

later. It's expected that

Qantas will announce some

flights have been cancelled.

US authorities say they have

foild a major terror plot to

sass nat the Saudi ambassador

in Washington. Two men are

accused of trying to pay a

hitman 1.5 million to kill

the ambassador. A spokesman

said that the Government

categorically rejects the

allegations, says they're baseless. The Wallabies

insist they have the depth to

cover for any injuries ahead

for the semifinal against the

All Blacks. Kurtley bail will

be given time to prove his fitness. Cooler with showers

in the southwest. Chris,

thank you. Welcome back,

welcome to our panel this

afternoon, joining me here in

Canberra, Kerri-anne Walsh

and Nicky Saver, who writes a

column for the Australian as

well. Thank you both for

joining us. How significant,

Nicky is today? The pass

able of these bills through

the house? I think it's a pretty significant achievement for the

Government. It's been a long

time coming. They've managed

it get it through. If I was

them I'd saver every single

moment of it. Because I don't think it's going to last some

how. This is the key

question, does this shift the

politics at all or is the

intense hey tread of this carbon tax going to continue?

There's a number of people

who have got positions of

influence and power in the

electorate on radio stations,

in politics, loud mouths, if

you like. And they will

continue to talk it down.

They will continue to say

that the roof is going to

fall in because of this

tax. Do people switch off

from that? I don't think

so? Will people fired up

about the tax itself? I

think it's right. It's not

just the carbon tax itself.

It's a much wider issue that

goes to trust, and breach of

faith and I think that that

is one thing that's going to

play all the way through to

the election campaign. The

dynamic of the media coverage

an this - on this, we have

seen it today, a shift of

more questioning of Tony

Abbott, how are you going to

repeal it? The down side for the Government there is a

hell of a long lead in time

now where the anyway sayers

can continue to talk it down,

right through to July 1 next year. Tony Abbott has some

serious questions to answer.

He's got to say what he's

going to unravel, what he's

going to unpick. On a number

of fronts his maths is

looking pretty shaky. I mean

tens of billions of dollars

he's going to pluck out of

the air to do this, that and

all the rest of it

already. Does it face more

scrutiny, his plan? There

will be more scrutiny on him. He has made this pledge,

"Written in blood". Where did

he get this line today. He

doesn't under state things. He always has a cut

through line. This is one of

those, I think. But also he has to. He cannot - there is

no way that he can take a

back ward step on this after

everything that has preceded

it. One way or another

assuming he wins the election he he will have to find the wherewithal and the mechanism to do it. Even if it takes up until 2015 to do that, because you look at the time frame here. The next election if we run the full course is 2015. If Tony Abbott wins that and Labor - let's hear what Wayne Swan committed to this package. Of course we would continue to support it, in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Now, we are saying we will continue defending the carbon tax even if they're in opposition. Is that surprising that he would say that? No, he has to. He can't separate... He does it

mean he would do that? They will, a part from anything else there will be so much bitterness after all that. They can't be seen to be talking - walking away from it. Even if there is a new leader, they have really copped it at the election? Abbott has made it difficult for them, they're going to be returning the favour. If that's the case, Labor continues to defend it, Tony Abbott would have to have a double dissolution to repeal the carbon tax. You look at constitutionally how it works, you wouldn't be able

to do it until the new Senate

sits in 2014, a three-month window introducing the

legislation twice then it's

2015 by the time you could

hold 2015. It's been in

operation for 3

years. Business would have

made a bot of - a lot of

investment by then. Investor uncertainty is a

uncertainty is a big drag. A

number of surveys are showing

businesses are par rised, they're not moving forward on

a whole lot of investments,

inowe nations, because of a

lack of confidence in the

parliamentary and the

political scene. So this is

the sort of thing the opposition is going to have

to think about. Are they

prepared to wear the

consequence of that for another

another three, four years or

whatever it is, or are they

going to say - I mean it's

the kind of crash or crash

through approach Tony Abbott

has made his own, rather than

many compromising and saying

we can work with some parts

of this, maybe we couldn't.

It's a winner take all strategy you never know may

not work for them. You can't

afford to step back after

what has happened with jaj

what has happened with jaj

going to the election saying

there will be no carbon tax,

he's saying there will

definitely be no carbon tax

under my government, if it's elected. He has no choice. He

has no choice but to fight it

to the bitter end. If that

takes a couple of years so

about it. I think that's

right. There are always going

to be theatrical dynamics around today and there was,

after the vote went through. They were beautiful to

They were beautiful to

watch. Kisses and hugs in the

chamber, the Prime Minister celebrating the moment with

some of the front benchers,

including Kevin Rudd. We have

- there they are. So

celebrating with the

Ministers. The cameras didn't

catch it but the still

photographers did. The Prime

Minister and Kevin Rudd

sharing an embrace as well. A

clear congratulations and

show of support from the

former PM who did lose his

former PM who did lose his job as Prime Minister in part

over this issue. What did you

think of that? I thought it

was a kiss of Biblical

proportions myself. In the

context of the swirling leadership speculation, it's

a public show of a faction.

I think the story would have

been if they hadn't embraced,

everybody else on the front

bench lining up, he's

bench lining up, he's the

third or fourth most senior.

If he had have stomped off or

sulked away. That would have

been a killer yarn. For him

to come up, they have this

air kissing. Genuine and

heart felt I'm sure there

was a lot of emotion. We know

he supports putting a price

on carbon, he would be happy

to see the policy

sense... Mixed emotion

sense... Mixed emotion s I

would see watching all that.

On the one hand yes he would

have been pleased on the

other hand it would have been

bittersweet for him because of how it went for him after

it was paced in the house it

all fell apart. You listen to

his comments on this, he

blames the Greens for not

backing this, not backing his

carbon pollution reduction

scheme. The other moment

scheme. The other moment was

when the anticarbon tax mob

who have been vocal in

staging ral Reece, protests

here in Canberra stood up in

the public galleries, wave

after wave of them, that's

shots of them being ejected

from the chamber. It was an

interest interesting way they

did it, a few of them would

stand up then out they would, the final one

the final one was hoeding a

shoe in a threat ening pose,

they made their point. I

think they did in a very

vocal way, it was bit a like

a Mexican wave with sound

effects, first one would get

you, the other would get up,

around they go. It spoilt the

moment a bit for Gillard. It

did a little. These type of

people have strongly held views. They're not

views. They're not about to

shift. Is this the fringe?

Exactly how representative is

it? Who's urging them along? What sort of following does

their organisation have, or

loose organisation, will this

be representative of the

broad community move, post

July 1 next year,

July 1 next year, when the

if the Government is still thing is bedded down. That's

there. If a few other factors

swirling about having

inflicted grieve vus bodily damage on the Government.

They're still around July

next year, bi Christmas

things are bedded down. We're

nearly out of time. Tomorrow

the Government is scheduled

to put the migration bill

into the house, put it to a

vote, very uncertain whether into the house, put it to a

that will go through. If it

fails this will be the first

government defeat on a piece

of legislation in more than

80 years in the house. After today's success is tomorrow

the right time to do that? I thought it should have been

the other way around really,

if they were forced into a

situation where they had to

get it done this week. It

probably would have been

better if they had asylum

better if they had asylum

seeker first then carbon. If

they get it through that's a

pretty good week. That's high again. That's not right, they will finish on a

guaranteed at this stage. Strategically the odds were

with the carbon bills passing

clearly. This one is a big

unknown tomorrow. So the selection committee would

have thought Labor people on

it would have gone hang on,

let's put the high last to

make sure that the weekend is

a good thing. We will see how

it goes many to. Great to

talk to you both, Kerri-anne

Walsh, thanks. We will look

at what is happening with the

container ship, is it going

to break up and cause an

environmental disaster there.

Stay with us.

been seeing throughout the Welcome back as we have

coast of Tauranga in New day the situation off the

Zealand goes from bad to

worse as the container ship

it's run up on a reef showing breaking apart. Have a look since signs of possibly

has at these pictures. A crack

has emerged in the side of

the vessel. Containers have

been seen Bobbing around in

the water, Globules of oil

have washed up on the beach.

Todd, we're looking at the pictures as we speak. They're

pretty shocking. What's the

latest you've got there on

the ground? Well, look, the

latest is those cracks on the

side really are quite a

concern. The crack

particularly on the starboard

side that's the side that's

closest to the ocean there.

It looks as if almost some of

the waves are lapping over

the side of the boat. That

side is close to one of the

tanks which still has oil in

it. The number three

starboard tank in there. So

there are major concerns that

that may rupture at some

point. On the other side of

the boat there is a crack

relatively around the number

3 port tank. That's been

cleared out, but it's on the

other side of the boat away

from the ocean. The major

concern is about what exactly

could happen over the next

little while. Serious worries

that the ship may in fact

break into two. There's a tug

boat out there trying to hold

part of the ship on to the

reef to, I guess, weather the

Storm. The weather is not

very good here in Tauranga.

Not expected to get better tomorrow. Beyond that it may

start to clear up. But it's a

little unknown. Really it has

ham per efforts. Salvage

experts can't get out there.

The ship is a ghost ship,

nobody is on board. All

anybody can do is get close

by boat or plain, an aerial over view from the air

over view from the air is

really the only way that

naval experts have been able

to look at it. There's a

certain going out by boat

with all the containers that

have fallen off, 70 that are

floating some where in the

ocean out in the Bay of

Plenty. A last exclusion zone

has been set up. Some of

those containers have turned

up on Motiti island. It is a

major concern, some of those

containers are expected to

end up on the beach at mount

Monganuni. Thanks for that,

awful scenes, it doesn't look like a ship that's about to

be righted any time soon. We

appreciate you joining us.

We're out of time for today's

show. We will have more after

the break. News is next.

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