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The Drum -

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(generated from captions) Welcome all. You, too, can join us if you're on Twitter and use the #TheDrum. We were warned Britain's vote on whether to stay in or leave the European Union would be close but it feels like no-one was prepared for this result. Britain has voted to leave the EU 52 to 48% - making it the first country to quit in the union's 60-year history. Financial markets have been rocked by the news and Prime Minister David Cameron has just announced he will soon step down.The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected. I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction. I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months. But I do not think it will would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination. This is not a decision I've taken lightly. But I do believe it's in the national interest to have a period of stability and then the new leadership required. There is no need for a precise timetabletoday but in my view we should have aim to have a new Prime Minister in place by the start of the Conservative Party conference in October. Let's get the latest from London where we're joined by Chattenham House Senior Fellow Professor Hi.
Steven Witton. Welcome to The drum. Hi.Was it the right thing for David Cameron to stay he was going to stand down and leave the way for another captain to try to steer the country to new place?To be honest, I don't think he had any choice. The vote was his decision. He went into the last general election promising it. Got the mandate from the country to have it, did the re-negotiation and obviously failed to win the referendum. I don't think he had any other choice but to take the drop.Were you as shocked as so many of your countrymen and women seem to be at this result?Absolutely. I mean, I think when we were looking at the polls, we knew it was going to be tight. But, you know, it just seemed to be a kind of step too far, frankly. And I think everybody I've spoken to today really is, quite literally, in a state of anticipated
shock. It is not something they anticipated would happen. And, clearly, we haven't made any plans for where we're going to go next. So I think that shows a measures of people's expectations, that it was going to be a vote to remain. Before we talk about the reasons why this has happened, can you tell this
me why you think there has been this shock? Why it was not anticipated? Are there any factors there aside from the discrepancies in the polls, the way the markets were reading it, and the betting markets? Like, what actually has gone on?Well, when we look at the vote, what's clear is that, basically, Labour Party supporters deserted the Labour Party and went over to the Leave camp. Big problems for the Labour Party in the future because they've basically gone with a UK Independence Party platform.What do you...I know there are multiple factors that have led to this vote. We've been discussed them all day, if not for weeks and months - concerns about immigration, concerns about the economy, sovereignty, concerns about the EU, you
the need for independence. What do you think has been the most decisive factor pushing this vote? I think immigration is certainly a key factor but I think there is also an issue of people wanting to thumb their noses at politicians. Most of our parliamentarians wanted the UK to remain within the the
European Union and the majority of the public has gone the other way. I think it is very clear that there is a gap between the political elite that sits in Parliament and the country at large. I think that's been something that has been there for a while but it is a delayed consequence of the extensive immigration we've had from other EU member states. Also, I think, really a sort of failure of politicians to take into account those who've been left behind by globalisation. And so I think it's really a kind of body-blow to the body politic of the UK not just to the Prime Minister and the Tory Party.Let's have a look at how Nigel Farage greeted this. He of course said it was a victory for real people. This is what he said earlier today. The EU is dying. I've we've knocked the first brick out of the wall. I hope this is the first step towards a Europe of sovereign nation states trading together, neighbours together, friends together, but without flags, anthems or useless old, unelected Presidents. So what happens now? What happens next? Well, 17 million people have said we must leave the European Union. We now need a Brexit Government. We've just been discussing the need for a Brexit Government. The question now being - who's going to lead that? What kind of shape it will take. What impact this will have on the economy, and if the Prime Minister can actually call for the stability that's required. We've seen a lot of different reports Professor Whitman about what might happen to the economy in Europe. How concerned can we be? Do you think the reaction of the sterling is just an initial correction or do you think we can see, as the IMF predicted, ongoing destabilisation and a possible recession, if this is not sorted out quickly?Well, clearly the markets were wrong-footed. That's why we saw that dramatic drop in the dollar.
the value of the sterling against the dollar. But pretty much every respectable economic forecasting outfit suggested that there would be a real hit to the UK economy by leaving the EU - both in the short-term and the medium-term. But, of course, the idea that the Brexiteers sold is there were a long-term beneficial effect for the economy, getting rid of Brussels regulation and so on would free up the British economy. I think, really, one of the things that has to happen fairly soon is Britain has to decide what kind of Whether
relationship it wants with the EU. Whether it wants to be in the single market or not. As long as we have that uncertainty I think there'll continue to be economic uncertainty and, particularly, it because
will hit investment decisions because businesses won't be sure if they're investing in the single market.Geoff?Professor Whitman, could I ask you about the internal politics of Great Britain. Obviously Labour has been divided, there are pro-European and anti-European politicians. Is there a chance of a realignment in this? The other thing to stir into that is the national list politics, the Scottish Independence Party, because we saw a disjuncture with the way the country voted - Scotland and Northern Ireland voting to remain and England and Wales voting to leave. The British political system, because it is first past the post, really punishes smaller parties. It really is formidable for new parties to find their way into Parliament. But I think there is this question now around the centre of British politics is what's the best way to organise it? Is Labour dying and there needs to be some kind of political realignment around the centre. The left going off somewhere else. The Tory Party tracking more to the right. It is really uncertain. What we have seen with the public's vote is a lot of the old certainty of where people vote, particularly in the north, Labour's old stronghold, that's gone. It lost it in the Scotland and it has lost it in the north. Niki Sava, if I can bring you in here in Canberra, what was your response to this in Canberra? Were you surprised and what do you attribute this 52% to?I have to say, I was absolutely staggered by the result. I think just comparing it, let's say, to an Australian referendum, where we usually take a very cautious approach and when there is division we usually tend to stay with the devil we know, we opt for no change. But in this case the British people have opted for the devil they don't know. It seems clear to me from what Farage said before, he says, "We need someone to guide us through Brexit." Well, who is that going to be and how is it going to look once it's completelied? I don't think people know enough, really, about how it's all going to work and where they're going to land. They just look as if they've taken a big dive off a cliff and, you know, they're just hoping for the best. I don't know what the thinking is. Immigration, certainly, probably, played a big part, and also sovereignty, but maybe there was this desire on the part of some people to take Britain back to what it was, say, before the EU or when, you know, older Britons were growing up. Which, to me, sounds unrealistic and, you know, I wish them the best of luck for that. I just think there's a great period of uncertainty that lies ahead for Britain and also for Europe. And I'm not sure who the person is who's going to guide them through that. Maybe, is it Boris Johnson, do you think? Andrew Southcott, what do you make of the role that Boris Johnson played?As a popular leader throughout this, as an orator, he has had a significant role?Absolutely. He has been a very good Mayor of London and he is now a member of Parliament. In terms of who will end up as the British Prime Minister, my understanding is they have a number of stages. The parliamentary party selects two candidates. Then it actually goes to a rank and file ballot. It was that process 10 years ago that led to David Cameron, who was really, in some ways, on the left of the Conservative Party, e merging as a years
surprise leader, if you like, 10 years ago. He has been leading the Conservative Party over that time. It is too early to say who will emerge from this but Boris Johnson has come out as a very effective referendum.
national leader during this referendum.Let's have a look at some of the things he has been stressing
said. First of all, he has been stressing is this the kind of club we want to join, pointing to the inefficiencies that he saw in the EU and its administration. Let's have a look at his most recent speech on the subject.They say we can't do it. We say we can. They say we have no choice but to bow down to Brussels. We say they are woefully underestimating this country. If we vote Leave and take back control, I believe that this Thursday can be our country's Independence Day.Is it a question, Stephen Loosley, of underestimating people or, at least, chronically misunderstanding, misreading what their views were?Well, insofar as the British polls are concerned, no question. They got the last election wrong. If they'd been right, it would have been a Labour-Scottish National's Coalition with Ed Miliband at number 10. So the polls have been wildly off-beam again. I was wanting to ask the Professor just about the immediate politics of the Tory Party. The Prime Minister has said fresh leadership is required. But is the Chancellor of the Exchequer, is George Osmond terminally damaged given his role in the campaign. There were figures given what would happen if Britain were to exit? Does this mean if Osmond is taken out of the immediate play, it strengthens Boris Johnson's position and he'll likely be the the Prime Minister, as the former London Mayor?I think it is a great question. The interesting thing about the referendum campaign is it's basically destroyed Osborne's status as the kind of Prime Minister-in-waiting.Yes.He was Parliament.
the most effective networker in Parliament. He had a large number of supporters lined up. That's where Boris Johnson has a kind of problem, because he hasn't built that kind of coalition in the Tory Party in the Parliament, which you need to go to the voter to the party at large. A massive would be upset if he doesn't make it to the ballot, because the members of the Parliament go for other candidates. I think you also want to look at Theresa May, the Home Secretary. She played a very clever role in this campaign. She came out on the side of supporting Cameron. But on the other hand, she had a very low-profile role in the referendum campaign. She didn't get herself into too much trouble. Clearly, she is a candidate to watch, I think. Isn't there going to be now be a real division on the terms and conditions of exit under the rules of the European Union? Each item of the relationship will now be put under cross-examination? I would imagine that the radical right wingers who were part of this process might complain about the slowness of it or the terms and conditions not being right. I don't think we've heard the end of the debate about Brexit yet even though the inprinciple vote has gone through?No, I think you're absolutely spot on. What we've had to
is we've had a debate about whether to leave or not. We haven't had any kind of debate about what kind of relationship we want to have with the EU. There are vastly different views around what would be good for the UK, particularly around the issue of immigration - how you will control that, how you would relate to the EU on that - but also if we want to be part of the EU single market or not, or have a more free trading relationship. You continue have a negotiation with the EU until you know what you want. We need to have that conversation to work out what we want to negotiate on but, at the same time, you know, we also have this process or the treaties provide for this process of untangling a state and seeing it leave. So we have two big things going on at once and how those are going to of
mesh together isn't clear because, of course, there is no precedence. The UK is the first country to put itself in this position.Professor Whitman of all the arguments for Britain to leave, the one that seemed to have the most impact and the most discussion throughout this campaign, as you've said, was about immigration. That's led to concerns about what might have been whipped up during the campaign, allegations of xenophobia, and this particular poster Breaking Point was a subject of much dispute. Were people's fears being played on, amplified, were they legitimate? Could they be contained? Where do we go from here in terms of the debate on immigration and what impact will about
this have on the civic discussion about it in Britain?Well, you know, it was a really tough and bad-tempered debate but, also, there was no certainty about what those who want to leave the EU wanted in its place, in place of got,
the current arrangement we have got, in terms of the free movement of EU citizens. There has been discussion about having an Australian-style immigration policy. But remember, we also have large numbers of UK nationals living in other E U member states. We have to work out the best deals for those as well. You probably do have the public at large which voted on the issue of immigration to see it driven down, but the Government may find that the only way it can strike a decent deal with the EU is to keep the immigration relationship, the free similar
movement relationship, quite similar to the one we have now. I think that raises then all sorts of questions about whether people are getting what they think they voted for and the kind of political disruption that would cause if that was the case. OK. Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was just one of many who said a British vote to big
leave the EU would come as a very big shock. Today he said it was a reason to keep the Coalition in Government - a move labelled cynical by Labor.There is no cause for Australians to be alarmed by these developments. However, there will be a period of uncertainty and some instability in global markets. I remind Australians that given that we are living in a world of great opportunities but also great challenges, and uncertainties, now more than ever, Australia needs a stable majority Coalition Government.Now is not the time for these impacts to be politicised or dramatised in a scare campaign. Share markets go up and down all the time. That is not an argument to not change a government.Andrew Southcott, is it appropriate to make the Brexit vote a point in our own election?I think the point that Malcolm Turnbull has made is very well made because, quite simply, you know, when you have a shock like this, which was a possible shock, but in the next term there will be shocks that aren't expected and that is when stability and good economic management come at a premium. It used to be said about Australia that when our major trading partners caught a cold we would catch pneumonia, but what we have seen over the last 20 years through the Asian currency crisis, the GFC, by having our own house in order government,
and stability and secure government, we were able to get through all of those challenges in a way that the old Australian economy, really, wasn't able to. So Malcolm Turnbull's point, I think, is very well made and valid. OK. So you agree with him. Stephen, what's your response to that? Julia, I think we misread the Brexit result. This was a repudiation of the political class. It wasn't simply a repudiation of David Cameron and George Osmond. Not only do we have Jeremy Corbyn out on the stump, we had Tony Blair and Gordon Brown...Barack Obama. Precisely. It is a repudiation of the political class. This populism is not confined to Britain. We see it in France with Marine Le Pen and the National Front. We see it with Donald Trump on the right, and to a lesser extent Bernie Sanders on the left. The issues of economic stress have motivated people to desert the major party and really give the middle finger to the political class as a well.In fact, the Labour Party would mount an argument that their position which is to have health and education focused upon as part of their economic strategy they might say quite effectively it would be better to have a Labor Government in place that integrates economic and social policy to keep the order fair people on side in terms of the process of Government. Interestingly, they've ruled that out by saying they don't want to politicise but I think that is a message from this. That is you have to integrate your economic and social policies. So I think Labor for
could use this, in fact, as a basis for arguing for what they're saying about the budget.But should they be exploiting it? Niki Sava, I would like your view on how you think this might play out here. When people are anxious, if they're anxious about the economy, could this go to the Coalition's side? Well, I think at the moment it does play to Malcolm Turnbull's themes about stability and, you know, one thing I think we know at the moment is that people are sick of the churn with prime ministers - five in six years - do they really want to go through another period of substantial change at this moment, when there is so much volatility and so much uncertainty. So I think, so long as it's not over played, so long as it's not overstated, I think it should work to Turnbull's advantage.I think, Nicky -- Niki, that misses the point about what's happening in vote
contemporary politics. It was a vote against the political class. The political class has to start dealing with that issue instead of assuming it is a problem and ignoring it.I think that's right but I don't think what's happening happening
in Australia is similar to what's happening in the United States or similar to what has happened in the UK. We don't yet have that kind of divide, you know. We don't have a Trump kind of figure, who is building up that kind of tension and that kind of volatility.No, but we do have people who believe they've been left behind by economic growth and the politics of inclusion...But not to the same extent.No, that's true, Niki...We don't have the same divisions alreadyBut you cannot ignore that country,
people in different parts of the country, particularly in some of the regions, believe they have been left behind. With some of the economic changes we've seen, for example, the automobile industry effectively exiting Australia, that challenge is even greater. To see this in parzan terms the -- partisan terms is simply wrong. If all boats are going to arise, everybody should aboard.I think we are talking at cross-purposes here. The argument you're making about the reasons for people voting Remain or Leave, that's a valid argument. But what Malcolm Turnbull was really talking about is the possible immarkets in market terms, in -- in market terms, in investment terms afterwards. That's what he's really talking about. Not going into what's driving the vote. There is no question in Australia that you see, you know, people who feel they've been left behind. In actual fact, I think in some ways this vote is quite similar to the vote we had on the Republic referendum, where you did see Melbourne and Sydney vote yes but a lot of Labor seats voted heavily 'no'. It was really for the same reasons that you've seen this vote in the UK.Professor Whitman I wanted to bring you back in. You were part of the Remain phalanx, trying to convince people that Britain should stay. What have you learned...No, I was a neutral. I've basically had the job for the last few months trying to do fact-checking, mist-busting, basically, one of the most thankless jobs, I think, in this sort of current political debate. So I have probably got a few grey hairs after all of that.Right. What was your personal view?Well, my own view is that for Britain, Britain as a country, we basically probably
now face a challenge which is probably unlike anything we've faced since the second world war. I think in here there is also something really interesting about the economy. We have the left-behinds and we think we know why they voted to leave. But also, one of the reasons why people have felt confident enough to make this vote is that, you know, Britain joined when it was really on its uppers in the early '70s. They'd tried everything else in terms of trying to make its way in the world, Empire, or post-empire, Commonwealth and so on. Our economy was in bad shape. It is a different economy now. People are much more confident about the UK's capacity, basically, to be much more global. So we have this divide in our society between those who see themselves as globally-connected, see lots of advantage in the global economy, and those who are the left-behinds. So my mind, that's something that -- to my mind, that's something that is the essential British political problem that has to be solved and I think is made really manifest by this vote. It was interesting we've ended up with the vote being as it was.Niki Sava, do you think that politicians will be looking to Brexit and do you think in years to come we'll be seeing this as a significant factor in our upcoming election?Well, I think, obviously, it is going to play out in the campaign over the next few days but depend
how long that goes on for will depend on how volatile the situation remains with both currency and the stock market. So if that continues, you know, to oscillate then I think, you know, people get nervous and they will be looking for reassurance. If, however...We'll continue to discuss it - I'm so sorry to have to cut you off - we're out of time now. Thanks

FIONA BRUCE: This week's Roadshow
comes from the beautiful Towy Valley in Wales, from gardens that a little
over a decade ago were lost in time. Welcome to the Antiques Roadshow from Aberglasney Gardens
in Carmarthenshire.

Anyone who visits the gardens
of Aberglasney can't help but be captivated
by their beauty and tranquillity.

It's hard to imagine that,
until recently, this was a place
of riot and disorder. Half a century of neglect meant the gardens were covered
by a shroud of green hidden beneath a jungle of knotweed,
brambles and ivy. The elegant mansion
was overcome by rampant vegetation. Trees burst through the stonework
and snaked through its windows.

But Aberglasney wasn't always
in such a sorry state. From around 1600, the estate
was home to Bishop Anthony Rudd, such a favourite
of Queen Elizabeth I, he was expected to become
Archbishop of Canterbury.

400 years and a succession
of owners later, the crumbling estate was rescued and in 1997, the painstaking process
of restoring the gardens began. As restorers went to work
removing over 100 tons of spoil, they revealed something
unique in Britain - the last surviving Elizabethan
cloister garden of its kind.

In the early 17th century, this walkway provided people with
a place to exercise in bad weather. We may need that ourselves later.

And on a summer's day, you could promenade
along this majestic terrace, overlooking gardens on every side.

An ancient pathway winding
through the woodland garden is known as Bishop Rudd's Walk, because it's the route
he would have taken every day on his way to worship. It leads to St Cathan's Church,
where he rests.

He never did become archbishop - an ill thought-out sermon
referring to the Queen's old age put paid to that, and in the end, he chose to
be buried in humble surroundings, near the gardens he created.

The people of Wales
are waiting with anticipation. Let's hope our experts
manage to unearth some treasures. Over to them. It's a bit of a puzzle, this pin,
because if you look inside the lid, you might assume that it was made
and sold in London, but it wasn't. Tell me what you know about it. Well, all I can tell you
about it is that my aunt ran a grocery shop
in London, and that's about 70-plus years ago, and she was given it...
by a customer who couldn't pay for the groceries. Oh, really? Yes, so it was a payment
for a bad debt. That's all I can tell you about it,
quite honestly. She never knew what it was, and you don't know what it is,
either, I assume. No, I have no idea.
It's very simple, isn't it? It's a little blue plaque
with a white shaft and a little sort of terminal to it. And when you twist it, like that... Right. ..so the end, the little terminal,
comes off. Now, it was made in France. Really? And it's called a jabot pin, and it was made in around about 1925. The back of it has got
some tiny little marks there and those are French control marks. This is a sky-blue chinoiserie. It is an indication, I suppose, of what we think a Chinese man
might look like, so this is designed, I think,
in France, with the concept of what
a Chinese person would look like, and it's composed of sky-blue,
turquoise-blue glass. Glass, really?
Glass with diamond chips. Has it been valued before?
No, no. Well, I'm going to tell you
that I think it's worth £750. My goodness. That's fantastic.

Judging by the colour of this, it looks like you've had it
in your attic for many a year.