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Crunching the numbers the day before the elec -

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(generated from captions) Heather Ewart, thank you very much.The two leaders have spent a final frantic day on the hustings. Tony Abbott was on the attack in Labor's heartland while Kevin Rudd was on the defensive trying to shore up Labor's marginal seats to minimise its losses. Our political editor Chris Uhlmann was out and about following the last day of campaigning and assessing the lay of the land in the key battle ground seats.

All smiles on the surface. That's great, mate.You're favourite band.That's terrific.But the lives of both of these men are about to change dramatic Atley and so will the life of the nation.Well-done.In the campaign's final hours the course the leaders chart on the run to the finish shows exactly how this race will end.For a Queenslander this isn't a bad beach.Today Kevin Rudd was sandbagging the NSW marginal seat of Robertson. While Tony Abbott was stepping out in the supposedly safe Labor seat of Chisholm in Victoria. That's Queensland made.That's Queensland made as well.If you wonder how the leaders think this campaign is going, just listen to them. Kevin Rudd knows he's well behind.According to out today we've got about 3 points to make up and what I know about Australians is there's a whole bunch of people who don't sort out which way they're going to vote until the day itself. And so what I'd say to each and every one of you is to encourage you to get out there and to fight and to fight and to fight right through until 6pm on polling day.The Coalition believes it has beaten Labor, its major concern now is it will be gifted an unworkable Senate by voters backing an array of minor parties. The danger, as we go into the last hourings - hours of this campaign, is that people will dilly-dally with Independents and minor party candidates, sure they might be fun, sure they might be different, but they will damage our country and damage our government if they play the same role in the next Parliament that they played in the last Parliament.And in Sydney's west Labor MPs are pleading to be spared for Opposition.Whatever happens tomorrow you're going to need people like me, people like Chris Bowen that will hold Tony Abbott to account.Jason Clare hints at Labor's darkest fear, that the electorate is set to tear the Government apart. Let's take a conservative look at which seats will fall. Remember the party that gets to 76 wins.And that's where the problem begins for the Government because this race starts with Labor on 72 and the Coalition on 75. In the west the seat to watch is Labor's Brand. But assume no change here.In the Northern Territory the Coalition hopes for Lingiari but no-one really knows how it's tracking so no change.SA will see a large swing to the Coalition but the margins are also large. The seats to watch are Hindmarsh, Adelaide and Wakefield. One falls. Tasmania has an unpopular Labor/Green government and that's lead in the saddlebags of Federal Labor. Bass and Braddon are in the firing line and the Coalition is dreams of Lyons. In Victoria, Corangamite, La Trobe and Deakin are the low hanging fruit. Higher up the tree others are threatened. Melbourne should stay with the Greens and here's there's one possible surprise, the Liberal seat of Indi might fall to an Independent. NSW could be Labor's killing field with Sydney the dagger through its heart. The seats of Lindsey, Greenway, banks, Reid, Werriwa, McMahon are all in play. In the regions Robertson, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Page and Richmond are threatened. Labor looks set to lose at least 8 seats here. The promise that Kevin Rudd in
would revive Labor's fortunes in Queensland has been dashed. On a bad night every one of Labor's 8 seats is in play. Moreton, Petrie, Lilly, Capricornia, Blair, Oxley and the PM's seat of Griffith, assume 2 fall. So under this scenario 16 seats fall but it could be much, much worse.But there was a Coalition stumble with the finish line in sight with the release and swift retraction of a policy that proposed opt out filtering of all adult content on Internet and phone services.The policy was poorly expressed. As soon as we realised it was poorly expressed we corrected it. That's what we do. That's what an adult government does.How is it that with 24 hours to go the Liberal Party thought they could get away with sticking a policy out there on-line to bring about Internet censorship for the nation and get away with it? Obviously that was the plan.It was a rare slip in a very disciplined Coalition campaign but it fitted neatly with Labor's core message.If at this stage of the process you've got doubts about what Mr Abbott has in store for you, given he's kept his plans hidden until the last moment, then dote vote for him.By early afternoon Kevin Rudd was among the union faithful in Mount Druitt in Sydney's west.That's the seat of Chifley, held by Labor on a margin of over 12%.You want the Fair Work Act protected? Do you want fair and decent wages in each of your workplaces? Well vote Labor.24 hours from now we will see how the votes fall.And should Labor fall hard, so will its leader and the party will be left to ponder the second coming of