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Political insider analyses Clinton's victory -

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MIKE BANNERMAN: The tide is turning, well that at least is Hillary Clinton's view after winning a
handsome victory against Barack Obama in the democratic Pennsylvania primary. The former first lady
won 55 per cent of the vote but it remains unclear where whether it's enough to give her a real
chance at the White House. She still trails Senator Obama in terms of pledged delegates and the
popular vote but today she made it clear she won't give up. Meanwhile, Barack Obama hit out at
Hillary Clinton, saying the election that was not just about defeating the Republicans but about
what kind of Democratic party might win power. Earlier this evening I spoke with Bruce Wolpe,
director of corporate affairs for Fairfax Media.

He's worked on many campaigns for Bill Clinton and Al Gore. Bruce Wolpe, Hillary Clinton says she
is turning the tide, is she right or is she simply holding back the inevitable?

BRUCE WOLPE, US ELECTION ANALYST, SMH.COM.AU: In order to avoid a blow-out, and she did that, she
got a 10-point victory. I changed the psychology for her in this race and gave her strength to
continue in two weeks time, two more primary, a lot of delegates at stake there. So she found her
fortitude in Pennsylvania and as she said the road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue runs through
Pennsylvania and she's on that road. But long-term I still think Barack Obama has the fundamentals
to win this race.

MIKE BANNERMAN: If that is true, though, what are the lessons that have been learned in this race
that might inform an upset victory in the next set of primaries we go to?

BRUCE WOLPE: We've seen a big negative campaign between the two of them and that's certainly hurt
them. What's interesting is she's won a short-term Victoria victory but still has some long
problems. Her negatives have gone up. The more she's attacked Barack Obama the more her negatives.
She's now in unfavourable territory. President Clinton is also in unfavourable territory. At the
same time she's found that necessary to do this to win these big States and she's carried big
State, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, California, Texas. So her argument is at the end of the day
I'm more electable and Senator Obama is saying you may have a base which is pretty significant in
the democratic party but I have the stronger appeal, I represent what the American people want,
change, and fundamental change in Washington to deal with the change and the war so stay with me,
let's make history and elect Barack Obama.

MIKE BANNERMAN: This time Hillary Clinton seemed to be appealing to a working-class constituency.
When they go to the next set of primaries, things will be very different and it's likely to favour
Barack Obama. Is that right?

BRUCE WOLPE: Yes, Pennsylvania was favourable to her. She grew up there in part and she did well
among older voter, union households and women. Strong union households, older more Conservative
democratic voters she connected with them. North Carolina, we saw Barack Obama do were well in
States in the south. Indiana becomes a battle ground and it looks somewhat similar to Pennsylvania
but it's different and right now Obama is up by five points in Indiana when Pennsylvania started
Hillary Clinton was up by 20. In North Carolina Obama is up in double digits. So Obama has within
grasp the chance to take her out by a sweep in both States. If he can do it, I think it will lock
up the race, if not, this march will go on for a little while.

MIKE BANNERMAN: Well that's what I was going to ask. Can he really just finish this off in these
next two primaries? Do you think he will?

BRUCE WOLPE: I'm hazarding a guess under these circumstances is really tough. But I think the
elders in the party, so called super delegates even has been talking about, the high pooh-bahs of
the democratic party, they are rational people do and they want a candidate that is good for them
and they also want someone that they feel can unite the party and take on the Republicans. There is
nothing in it for them to prolong this race for another four or five months. It just hurts
everybody. So I think if they see a clear front runner in two weeks time I think the logic of it
will lead them to unite behind the front runner and that should be Barack Obama.

MIKE BANNERMAN: So what do they do? Do they step in and go to Hillary, this is just not on, you're
killing the party and potentially our final candidate you have to go?

BRUCE WOLPE: Yes, and Obama will at some point one of them will say I have the votes, I have the
delegates, I have the majority, the nomination is mine.

MIKE BANNERMAN: It's hard to see Hillary giving away anything.

BRUCE WOLPE: The Clintons never quit, they never leave the field. Look at impeachment fight in the
late 1990, the great right wing conspiracy that Hillary Clinton talks add about. She's a really
great campaigner. She really connected with middle Pennsylvania and her argument is I can connect
with middle America. But Obama is showing an ability to bring in waves of voters the Democrats
never had.

MIKE BANNERMAN: So he is the new groom?

BRUCE WOLPE: He is the groom

MIKE BANNERMAN: He is he's also cashed up isn't he and Hillary Clinton is struggling, she's in

BRUCE WOLPE: Which is serious. you need petrol to run the car in a race.

MIKE BANNERMAN: Especially this race.

BRUCE WOLPE: Yes and she's running out of it. Barack Obama has $40 million in the bank and she has
$8 million and $10 million in debts, before what's coming up in Pennsylvania.

MIKE BANNERMAN: The other thing that's important is all the time this brutal fight is going on,
this slug-fest is going on, the Republicans must be preparing their own ads base on what they're
learning. What for example are Barack Obama's weak points if he gets it?

BRUCE WOLPE: The question is Barack Obama too elite, too ultra liberal to really make it against
John McCain and win middle America? So they're going to use Hillary Clinton's attacks on Obama as
not connecting with working Americans.

MIKE BANNERMAN: Is it going to be effective?

BRUCE WOLPE: You're going to try it and we will see. I think still long-term the economy is in
recession and Pennsylvania, 80 per cent of the voters said we're in recession, we're hurting bad.
The war does not have an end point and the war sun popular. Even as McCain's leadership on the war,
people don't like the direction of the country therefore I think either nominee, Obama or Hillary
Clinton, has to be considered favourite on the fundamentals in November. Even with all the stuff
that will come out the democratic nominee and there's stuff to come back of McCain. We saw age here
in Australia and a exam campaign about the future versus the past was very effective for Kevin
Rudd. I think those same dynamics are in play in America.

MIKE BANNERMAN: It will be interesting we will know in a month. Thank you.

BRUCE WOLPE: Thank you.