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Sky News The Contrarians -

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(generated from captions) Hello and welcome to The

Contrarians, this is the only

show on sky or anywhere

elsewhere we truly involve

you the viewers by reading

out your Tweets and emails.

Well, a lot of viewers half their luck wouldn't realise

that there is an ongoing email war amongst certain

people in the public that are

constantly bombarding us,

almost spam emails bam barring commentators, myself

and others included dus

Prattly expecting us to raise

the Wilson affair, the saga

that apparently they Isaia

ledgedly engulfs the Prime

Minister most commentators

won't touch it with a bar

pole, Larry Pickering is

driving this push, why won't

we follow him? He is best known for drawing people's

genitals in cartoons, until

there is any more information

there is nothing frankly to

link this to the Prime

Minister beyond what has been

alleged in public, no

evidence, no way that a

credible commentator is going

to go any further than

credible commentators already

have on this saga. If Larry Pickering has anything beyond

what he acknowledges publicly

is a light half truth half fact half friction that's

been wrapped together in a

morbid version of a full

spectrum that's not good

enough, I for one am getting

sick and tired getting Bok

barreded by the emails,

anyone who takes that view

without more evidence I'm not

interested in your emails.

Larry Pickering is not

somebody I turn to for

quality political analysis.

Let's see what the panel

think about wider issues, Dr Greg O'Mahoney thanks for

your company. Hello. Rowan

Dean from the spectator and

dee Madigan. Do you think he

has something valid to say?

I heard it on the radio,

he's deliberately pushing it

as far as he can to get it in

front of a defamation court

to have the only thing

brought out. He's pushing it

very hard. There are

questions - no question there

are things... Unanswered

questions, but it's the extra

step. My newspaper 'The Australian' splashed on this

issue, there are unanswered

question, no-one is denying that. He is going further

than that. But not answering

any of them Gillard fosters

this... Having sex with

chickens, is it up to you to

prove that you don't? Where

are they? She's been accused

of something, is it up to

people to prove it? He says

he's written things with

licence. He's admitted

things he's written aren't

essentially factual. He

doesn't get to put the case,

you tell the truth or put a

piece of fiction. Sounds

like a November lift

reflecting on his early

works. He's a tosser. First and last time we will discuss

it. Pete, you have

guaranteed yourself a full

inbox. I can't wait to see

the emails coming in. I

started the program by saying

I'd be talking about asylum

seekers. Let's start with

Julian Assange, a close

personal friend of yours, is

the irony lost on you the man

who argues for free speech is

seeking asylum in a country

not exactly known for it.

The President of Ecuador is

an interesting character, he

will sue a newspaper that

says anything about him, he

has sued them for millions of

Pesos, his dad was a drug

runner. That Julian Assange

has finally washed up with

him, washed up being the operative word doesn't

surprise me. Assange has

turned himself into a pop

star, WikiLeaks, WikiLeaks is

almost divorced from Assange,

Assange is a bob Geldorf

character. Our college Ross

Kennedy says he was

disappointed WikiLeaks didn't

leak anything from the

Ecuador embassy. They

announced over the PA at the

embassy not the best thing

for the police. Getting more

serious, though, Greg and

Rowan make light of this

saga. There are serious

sexual allegation s against Julian Assange shouldn't he

go to speeden to face it I

think he should. But having

said that the sexual

allegations aren't - they

probably wouldn't actually go

to court in Australia,

they're quite different. It

is a different story, I love

the way people are going up

in arms he can't get

extradited to Sweden, like

it's a back waters country,

it's normally had the poster

child of human rights.

Sweden won't guarantee they

won't export I was going to

say... Extradite him.

Extradite him to America, he is understandably concerned

about that, he might have had

a conversation with David Hicks, list legal rights

might entirely be preserved.

Sweeten can't extradite him

if America has a death

penalty on the table. He has

to face life in prison on

trial at Guantamamo. In if

he's in a car with diplomatic

plates he's okay, sometimes

he has to get in the car. I

wonder how Australia Post

would handle that diplomatic

pouch. They will lose it.

In London they stormed the

embassy, it was great fun,

everyone came around, had a

few beers. It is a breach of

the Vienna convention.

They're allowed to close an

embassy, they have to find

them a new space in the city.

There is talk he may be made

a member of the embassy staff, which is

extraordinary, for him to

become an official delicate

of a government with the most shocking human rights record.

There was a Tweet from a

friend of mine, she made the

point you can loath Assange

at the same time to think it

is inappropriate that the

British consider violating

the sovereign safrnth tee of

the embassy. I don't think

they are going to. He wants

to storm the embassy.

Nothing between now and the

para limb picks, a good

storming of the embassy will

bring the tourists and the TV

cameras back there. We have

had predictable Tweets coming

in why are Australian

journalists scared of, why

won't they embrace the Larry

Pickering story. The embassy

was housing terrorists.

That's a different thing. Are we done? Move on?

Sorry, normally Greg covers

me when I'm reading Tweets

clearly he has hung me out to

dry. Greg, Campbell Newman,

there has been interesting

news about him in the last

few days, you're across it?

This is talk about internal

polling. You're making this

up now. He would lose

Ashgrove if the election was

today. There is talk his personal popularity has gone

through the floor. The seat

of Ashgrove he won in the

context of the wider victory

all good and well to send a

message you're not going to

move out of your chosen area

and win a seat off the Labor

Party. What does this do to him he will either have to

get parachuted out of the

seat, looks bad or stays

where he is and loses in

office. Some of the LNP

wouldn't mind having him out.

It couldn't be worse than

Campbell Newman. I don't

think Campbell Newman is terribly worried about his

polling periods. You always

take the tough decisions

early in office which is

largely what Barry O'Farrell

should do. Bang, bang, bang,

I'll do all of these things.

To get Labor's vote with

Campbell Newman. Even Anna

Bligh has moved. He's

getting rid of jobs, he

promised front line workers wouldn't go, then he changed

the definition of a front

line worker. His constant talking down of the

Queensland economy is

outrageous. If you listen to

him talking about Queensland

you'd think they were talking

about Athens. They are

bloke. A politics would tell

you there is no money in the

kitty, unlike Wayne who

promises you will all this

money, there is nothing

there, billions here,

billions there, there is no

money. He will give millions

to the turf club. The reason

I raised Campbell Newman the

issue is he has changed the definition of front line

services. A secondary issue.

You were about to go there,

I realise. There is a

serious issue. He lied to it

the election rat sfoo. A lot

of people feel betrayed by

Campbell Newman. A brilliant

segue. It explains what he's

done in terms of the talking

down of the economy, clearly

he's trying to massage public

expectations. The state

doesn't have the money it

once did with projects and

infrastructure, nothing in

the predicament in which he

finds himself in his

rhetoric. He is spending

money on turf clubs, not on

services. You have to look

at Europe that countries for

years didn't warn they were

going bankrupt. Nothing like

Spain, sounding like Campbell

Newman. We have the problem

with long-term budget not a

problem. More Australian

states should be doing it.

We will take a commercial

break, we're going through

the running order, not as

complex as dee's notes. When we come back we will look at

asylum seekers to start with

then plain packaging after that.

Welcome back, you're

watching The Contrarians, we

will continue with the panel

discussion, but first let's

look at what is making news.

Britain and he can wa door

are locked-in a stand off

following the decision to grant Julian Assange political asylum. The

British government has

refused to grant Mr Assange

free passage out of the UK,

say they're determined to

extradite him to Sweden after

he's wanted for sexual

assault allegations. Defence and immigration personnel

have arrived at Manus Island

to start work on restoring

the former detention

facility. Four more asylum

seeker vessels returned

yesterday. The Senate last

night passed legislation

which calls for the offshore

processing to be reinstated.

Four people have been killed,

and 20 others injured after

fire tore through a nightclub

in Phuket. Thai authorities

haven't been able to confirm

where the people are from,

but four are thought to be

French nationals. Lightning

is thought to have started

the fire. The original cross

of the Battle of Long Tan has

been officially unveiled at the War Memorial in Canberra.

The first time the cross has

ever gone on display after

being elect recollected in

the site of the battle.

Tomorrow marks the 64th

anniversary of Long Tan where

18 soldiers were killed in

Australia's fiercest fight in

the Vietnam war. Essendon is

back in the fight with

Carlton. They have to win

tonight's match if they're to

have any slim hopes of

winning the finals, cold and

windy, showers easing in the southeast, dry in the North

and in the southwest.

Welcome back, I'm joined by

Dr Greg O'Mahoney, Rowan Dean

and Dee Madigan. Keep your

Tweets and emails coming.

Constant requests for us to

stop talking over each other. Concerns about some of the

views about Sweden, the

attitude generally is John

who has been to Sweden has

made the point that the

Swedes are bemused they could

succumb to US demands if then

didn't have their own

independent view about it.

Generally most of the

commentary coming in were

mostly in favour of Rowan. Greg, you don't rate a

mention. Back to the key

issues, Greg straight to you,

asylum seekers, this will

make you popular with the

viewers, what is your view about what's gone on between

the major parties, I guess we

have seen agreement there in this first week with parliament returning, are you

for one excited about the

recommendations of the expert

panel by the human rights

instincts of both sides of politics to come together in

the spirit of promise to do something about asylum

seekers. It hasn't been the

high point for me of

Australian politics, it's

been a fairly forgettable

week. The only interesting

thing about it is the

politics of it. We have seen

Abbott delivered the sort of

political oxygen for the last

couple of years that

opposition leaders dream off,

he has dominated and bounced

the Government off the wall

on this issue. The

Government has given him the

opportunity to do it. They

have made the right call for

the sake of a week's humiliation. They have

removed one of the key issues

from his arsenal. Rowan

you've been keen... It

follows on from our discussion last week

basically, we have gone back

to how John Howard was doing

it, returned to a John Howard

set of policies, now all we

have to do is do the same

thing on a range of other

issues to sort out and go

back to the John Howard

policies. Go back to the

sorry. Go back to the

competent government they had

under the Liberal, they don't

want Labor any more. You

heard it first on The Contrarians Rowan Dean

pushing for Howard to come

back to the party leadership.

In the spectator he should

come back as the Governor

general It's his first

article in the spectator and the 'Sydney Morning

Herald' Are you sure it's him

who wrote it. Two

like-minded publications the

spectator and the 'Sydney

Morning Herald'. Dee, what

is your view? I have think

it is horrible for anyone to

be locked up for an

indeterminant amount of time.

It's horrible, it will short

people dying, we need a

circuit breaker. It's not just about stopping the

boats, it's about the other

measures the panel says is

going to be implemented,

getting better agreements, with our neighbours, things

like that. Sure, what

happens to the people who go

to Nauru, this is a serious

questions. Let's assume that

this does stop the boats, 3,

400 people in, the boats stop

the message gets through, the

best case scenario yo, a considering to the no

advantage rule they need to

be there, forced to be in

detention if they're one of

the 40 million people

globally in a refugee camp,

that means about 20 years.

These people will sit for 20

years in Nauru with Australia

running the centre? One of

the things is about

increasing the refugee

intake. This is one of many

measures. Even Rowan is

shaking his head at that.

The reality is, you

mentioned this last week,

Peterer the people smugglers

they called our bluff, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard let

them call our bluff. This

government is putting in more

under the liberal parties draconian measures than were

they have to raise the stakes

for the deterrent. It's a

shocking situation, we get

used to many Four Corners

programs over the next

decade. People, years and

years are spent in Nauru,

this is what is going to

happen. The fault of a very incompetent government

allowing it to get to the

stage. I find shocking the

remaining distinction between

labour on this, tow the boats

out. Any Australian that

thinks that is a moral or

doable thing to does kidding

themselves. All it is is inKent advising people already struggling to make

sure they're in a boat that

can't sink and risk lives.

It is a pathetically immoral

attempt. Rather be towed

back on the boat than spend

time on nar rye rue --

Nauru. We saw a formal Admiral come out and

say... Let's talk about what

has been enacted, a situation

that despite the relatively

minor increase this our

refugee intake, 20000, call

it 50000, whatever it goes up

to, 40 mill displaced people

around the world and a no

advantage test, if you're the

unlucky few hundred at best

it could be thousands that

end up in Nauru or Manus

Island, you're going to be

there not for years, but decades if the no advantage

rule is going to be applied.

Whatever your view on off

shore or on shore processing

how can this expert panel

argue anything that

correlates to that

potentially locking people up

for decades. It is still

better than death. That is

the choice. People die by

boat coming to Australia,

100% of people who try will

be locked up for decades.

What, we should let these people drown, that's what

you're saying. My argument

is by their own free will

they're trying to get there.

We should do everything we

can to stop them. If they

don't die at sea coming to

Australia you're going to die

at sea or some where else,

out of sight is not out of

mind. Sound policy should be

a policy that deters people

coming other than through the

proper channels, we had that

policy, we have to build a brand new policy of

deterrence, that is going be

incredibly difficult it do. It is difficult the second

time around, I don't like the

Howard policy, but going back

to it is harder to do. They

have a lot to answer to for unwinding the Pacific

solution. Agree with Sarah Hanson-Young how do they

sleep at night. They have

created this mess, they have

botched it up and made it

worse for everybody. The dichotomy of

the... Acronym It assumes

people are going to die, if

that was the real focal point

you'd set up a ferry service

to make sure they got to

Australia safely. Remember

the Tweets, guys, don't speak

over each other It has to be

the starting point, a circuit

break breaker, it will stop

people dying. Why not the

ferry service. Because

that's not a deterrent, a

ferry service won't act as a

deterrent. We agreed to

increase the immigration. I

agree, we should be

increasing our immigration

intake massively. In the

meantime we have to stop

people hopping on the boat.

It is horrible solution, but

I think it will work, at this

point we just have to... As

long as it works the ends

justifying means. If it

stops people dying, yes.

You keep saying that, 40% of

people die at sea, we

shouldn't lock up 100% of

people who try for decades.

One is we have secure

borders, control the intake

coming in, fantastic, that's

what we need to get to. I'm

not sure this policy in its

form will get there. By the

way if this policy doesn't

stop the boats it is not a single person drowning at

sea, if it doesn't stop

deaths at sea and stop people

coming here deaths will

continue, the 96% of people

who get there will be locked

up for decades. It has to

act as a circuit breaker.

How many people have to die

at sea before we decide to

junk this policy. 400 people

have arrived since it was

announced on Monday, this is

a lag time. The worst case

scenario you have an I am

hunl an solution coupled by

deaths at seas. PVO is in my

view right about the asylum

seeker issues on on shore

processing, that's

representative of the other

Tweets that have come

through, when we come back we

will look at other issues in

the mix, you're watching The Contrarians.

You're watching The

Contrarians, I'm joined by Dr

Greg O'Mahoney, Rowan Dean

and Dee Madigan. We have had

Tweets coming in, one from

somebody in the media making

the point that basically our

panel didn't diverse enough.

Dee and Rowan you have seen

eye to eye on issues and to

ferry people over it puts you

to the right of the audience.

Plain packaging, what's the

view on this, the High Court

has found in favour of the

government. It was always

going to, let's be honest,

the overwhelming number of

experts held that view. It's

a different matter if we look

at what is happening through

trips with world trade? Trips is about

unauthorised... I didn't

realise you were a lawyer, I

was talking to the barrister.

That is unauthorised use by

a third party... You're gone

from framing it to the

authoritative this is what it

is to asking the question to

Greg. I have no idea. What

I'm fascinated about is the

policy, brilliant policy and

indefensible, those opposed

to it. In terms of the broader issue, what's your

view, Rowan? Ridiculous the

whole thing is about so a

bunch of health officers can

go to Europe and pat

themselves on the back, it is

irrelevant, they won't reduce

smoking. It's going to

reduce smoking, the amount of money and time that

advertising agencies, that

cigarette companies spent

working out exactly what

colours motivate people. If

society haven't got the idea

now it's going to kill you,

it's a tiny little. Why did

they fight it? Why did they

spend so much money fighting

it. If the Government was

serious about stopping

smoking it would ban smoking.

Or put it behind the counter

or phase it out. This

government has done more than

any other government in the

world on cigarettes. When

Tony Abbott was Health

Minister, to all of those out

who who say I don't stick up

for Tony Abbott, when he was

Minister he was responsible

for putting the Graffic

images on the packets and had

seen a dramatic decline in

smoking rates. We haven't

seen what will happen with

plain packaging, I think it

will be more. I have a

question for you on that, you

think it will be more, I

don't want to verbal them the

health Minister or former

Health Minister who told us

on Australian Agenda she did

not think that existing

smokers would stop smoking as

a result of plain packaging.

80% of smokers start before

the age of 18, brands start

with teenagers, teenagers

have the affinity for

relating to brand. A Tweet

that has come in, cigarettes

kill more people than weed,

legalise weed. That's not a

bad point. Teenagers will

smoke weed if they want to

regardless of the plastic

pack it comes into. Don't

you mix it with tobacco?

It's a long time since I've

been a teenager. It might

have a tiny effect, a huge

amount of effort from the

Government to something that

is quite unimportant. Ban

smoking. Your argument

fails... It doesn't, ban

smoking. Do everything, if

you didn't do anything... It

is hypocritical carrying on

taking the money they get

from cigarette tax, take that

money and pretend they're

doing something in a tiny way

to reduce it a little bit.

What a tiny way? There are

governments around the world phasing smoking out all

together. I want to bounce

off you, Dee, you think it

will reduce the uptake of

smokers, that being the case

why has the Government got

forward estimates in the

budget that show there is

going to be the same tax

revenue coming in from

smoking taxes in the four

years despite that They will probably raise the price.

That's not part of the

budget figures. I don't know

what the answer to that is.

They have it as part of

their figures, I'll tell you

what it is, fudging their way

to the surplus the. Don't

start on Wayne. Is your mate

Swannie fudging his way to a

surplus? You have to love it

saying the treasurer, no,

there will be smoking

taxation, I get my wafer thin

sur plus, making the argument

that as a result of this legislation there will be a

huge decline in the number of

people who take up smoking

ipso facto a decline in

revenue, no, no, it's like

the treasurer and the health

Minister don't ever speak. I

don't have access to Dee's

talking points. I do not

have talking points for the

record. Be careful, I might

grab them and hold them up.

An increase tax on those

continue to smoke, ie a

reduction in smoking. I've

been quiet as requested, you

go into a garage, there is

all these chocolates,

milkshakes and ice creams all

the glittering colours,

should they be in plain

packs, should Ferrari's not

be red. People bring up alcohol, should we ban

alcohol, it's a problem, it

costs us in terms of health

dollars. I'm not going to

sit by and let that happen.

This are safe limits of

drinking, if people went to

the Government and said I

would like to sell this

product. Everyone who smokes

will become addicted. They

will be laughed out. Eventually it should be band... You mounted a strong argument against your

starting point. This is

fantastic, plain packaging is

fantastic, in 20 years time

cigarettes should be band. I

like this argument if we

can't ban it let's watch it

kill people and place an

impost on health? Why can't

we ban it? The Government

should ban it. As Dee said

you could not introduce that

product today it wouldn't be

allowed. The Government has

a responsibility to protect

its citizens, it should be

phasing cigarettes out all

together. Into this is nanny

state Labor, let's mess with

brands, it's the thin end of

something that's pretty ugly

further down the track. We

had a Tweet come in, saying

what an incredibly arrogant

man that Rowan from the

spectator is, rude,

opinionated, worse even than

Peter. Sorry Peter, you're

in good company. The time we

have got left we will move on

from plain packaging. Tony

Windsor had a spray in the parliament, what do you think

of him? Animated performance

and it's been long coming,

he's been a victim of hate

mail, he's been such a figure

of public score. For me it

was pretty pointless, what

happened what happened two

years ago, I feel for Tony

Windsor, he had two horses to

back, in his wildest dreams

what pd to that horse he

wouldn't have thought. I

thought it was quite good

that Tony selling his is now

in Hansard. With a direct

exchange from a member of

cabinet that particular

member of cabinet - on

Twitter I said it was a

private exchange that was

outed inappropriate, the

cabinet member said to me the

issues of forming government,

it should come out.

Interesting we will hear the

details of when Kevin Rudd

was knifed by Julia Gillard.

We saw so much from the Four

Corners program, the carbon

price, he was up front about

that, if that was his reason,

he would have to say he's

achieved what he wanted to.

He said in his speech in

parliament, though, Tony

Abbott would have introduced

an ETS if that would have got

Windsor 's vote. All would

have is. Didn't use Rhett

torque that said he would do

what he had to, to get the

Prime Ministership. Windsor has extrapolated that into

quite literally he would do

anything. Tony Windsor, are

you a fan? It's a hard one

with him, so much he does

particularly against Abbott I

disagree with, he takes too

far in his hatred, taking him

in a direction he's not known

for, he's known as an

honourable and decent Mannah

round the parliament. He

goes into a territory that

his personality otherwise

does not stoop. Talk, guys,

we have more time on the

program. I think Tony

Windsor has done incredibly

Gillard into the lodge. well out of his deal to put

Apart from the fact he's disliked by a large

proportion of the nation. He

has millions of dollars of

worth of great things and

goodies, he is hoping it will

see him through the next

election. It is bizarre he

is trying to justify his

decision and put it in terms

of Tony Abbott. Self-evidently Tony Abbott

didn't offer everything or

Julia Gillard offered more,

it's a weird thing to say

lrn This is the thing with

releasing the selling his

arse there, he is making a

calling on his character. He

goes too far, the attack back

fires because of the for Ross

tee of the attack. By some

of his ak oh lights, you know

the way that politics

work... We're out of time,

lady and gentlemen, we

appreciate you joining us,

Mahan thanks for your

company, Rowan Dean and Dee

Madigan you appreciate your

company. Thanks for your

company. Be sure to tune in

on Sunday for Australian Agenda, our special guest

live in the studio is the Prime Minister Julia Gillard,

I won't be asking her about

the Wilson saga but a range

of other issues, we will be

joined after that by the

Manager of Opposition

Business, Christopher Pyne

and Tom Lonborg will be

discussing his view on

climate change but the wider

attitude that government is

functioning in this country.

I'm ons ons ons, thanks very

much for your company.-- I'm

Peter van Onselen, thanks for your company.

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