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Australian Agenda -

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Good afternoon, welcome

to the program. This

afternoon we're going to take

a look at the difficult issue

of school funding of the GST

is close to finalising its

plans for reform in this

area. And this is something

that Julia Gillard wants to

be part of her legacy rather

than the other difficult

issues which certainly have

been dominating and hurting

her time in office. But what

is needed and what will last

because much like the carbon

tax the Opposition is opposed

to the sort of reforms the

Government is considering and

it is threatening at least to

undo them should it win the

next election. Coming up

we'll be talking to the

Shadow Education Minister

Christopher Pyne about that

and what his concerns are

when it comes to reform of

school funding. Also take a

look at the warning about the

mining boom possibly coming

to an end in two years. How realistic is that? Stay

tuned. Coming up first we're

going to take a look at the

top stories this hour.

President Obama has been meeting families of the

victims of Friday's shooting

massacre in Colorado. Barack

Obama said the people would

bounce back but needed to

reflect on the senseless

vital that mars the country.

The gun man who opened fire

will appear in court tomorrow

morning Australian time.

It's an all too familiar

ritual, an American town

mourns its dead after a gun

massacre. Tears are shed,

prayers are said and everyone

hopes it will never happen

again. There will be many stories unfold beyond what's

already been told. Many of

those stories are going to

talk about the heroic actions

of Aurora police officers.

Literally within seconds they

had apprehended the suspect

and I refuse to say his name. (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) President Obama also paid

his respects in a short visit

with the bereaved and the

injured. But gun reform is

not a vote maker in America.

I hope that over the next

several days, next several

weeks and next several months

we all reflect on how we can

do something about some of

the sense less violation that

ends up marring this country.

This man drove 16 hours

from Illinois to erect crosses with the names of the

viction. He did the same

thing in 1999 when 13 were

shot dead at the nearby

Columbine High School. This

guy is going to be tormenting these families for the next

five years. Every time they

go to court they 're going to

think about what's going on

with that, you know, and it

wasn't much more than 100

years ago we would take the

guy out and hang him. I'll do

it for you if you want, just

get rid of them, don't give

him that publicity and

retrial even pls trial. We

know he did it. James Holmes

will get a fair trial. He's

currently being held in

solitary confinement in for

his own safety. Holmes was

wearing a bulletproof vest

and didn't resist arrest.

Just like Anders Behring

Breivik it appearings he

wanted to survive the

massacre and be put on trial. Other men already on the

State's death row, if convicted Holmes may join

them. The trial is months

away. Today's court

appearance may give some

insight behind the killing

spree. Why did a High School

student arm himself with four

guns and shoot 70 people? The Prime Minister says the

budget will return to surplus

as planned as part of a new

report predicting it will be

harder to achoef. Deloitte

Access Economics is

forecasting the mining boom

has only another two years to

run and it will make it more

difficult for the Government

to achieve a surplus. The

good news is that governments

only look at the budget s

twice a year. We've got until

November before the next set

of stats come out. Hopefully

it's rebounded by them. As of

today if they had to bring

down a budget, it would on

current trajectory be back in

deficit. The Government has

rejected the claims saying a

slowdown has already been

factored into the budget but the Opposition isn't buying

it. This report is actually

called the glass is half

full, so it is reinforcing

the strength of the Australian economy. The

budget will return to surplus. I'm calling on the Government to come clean

levies it's going to about what taxes and what

introduce to try and make up

for the budget black hole.

The Peter Slipper sexual

harassment case has been adjourned until October the

2nd. Lawyers had been trying

to get the case thrown out.

Cameron Price has more. The sexual harassment case against Peter Slipper has

been delayed for another

three months because of a

constitution al question.

Lawyers have reintroduced

Cabcharge misuse claims that

were dropped at the start of

this case to prove an abuse

of process claim against

James Ashby some of the new

elements of this case that

emerged today focussed around

Mr Ashby's involvement with

the LNP. It's been revealed

that one of the people that

Mr Ashby sought advice from

early on was prominent LNP

figure David Russell QC, a

lawyer who gave him advice

but warned him that the LNP

and himself couldn't be

involved in this case. It's

also been revealed that Mr

Ashby knew Mal Brough and

Queensland LNP President Peter McIver previously. Lawyers for Peter Slipper and

the Commonwealth are trying

to show a connection between

Mr Ashby and the LNP. The

case will resume on October

the 2nd. The Zim's Prime

Minister is calling on the

Australian Government to end

sanctions against his

country. Morgan Tsvangirai

wants all sanctions against

his country suspended even

though that means President

mu gaby would be allowed to

travel freely. He hopes to reengage with leaders during

his advice combrits to

Australia. My visit here has

been largely to explain to

the political leadership and

the business community that

Zim is ready to re-engage, to

re-engage with the

international community as a

member of the international

community and not just as

apart state. The Prime

Minister was elected in 2009

and is in a power sharing

agreement with President mu

gaby who refused to stand

down. Police say an email or

text message threatening harm

to the ecipient unless there

is a pay-off is a scam and

should be ignored. A large number of people have

received the message, it includes the line someone

paid me to kill you, you have

48 hours to pay $5,000,

police say delete the

message, do not pay any money

and there is no need to be

alarmed. This is not a

genuine threat. We are

likening it to a glorified

scam that obviously is hoping

that someone will reply with bank details or forward

money. In simple terms it's a

hoax. The origin of the mess

age is under investigation. A

Sydney teenage er is in a

stable but crit-cam condition

after he was repeated ly

stabbed in the stomach, the

17 year old victim approached

police officers. A 16-year-old boy was arrested

over the incident. He's

since been charged with two

offences, wounding with

intent to murder and also

wounding with intent to cause

grievous bodily harm. He's

been bail refused and he will

appear later today at

Campbelltown Childrens

Court. Police have appealed

for anyone who witnessed the

incident to contact Crime

Stoppers. Melbourne Demons

AFL star Liam Jurrah has

entered the Alice Springs

Magistrates Court for the

first day of his hearing.

Maoems Star Liam Jurrah has

entered the Alice Springs Magistrates Court for the

first day of his committal

hearing. The 2011 leading

goal kicker will face court

for the next three days.

Jurrah along with Christopher

Walker and Josiah Fry are

charged with causing serious

harm, being armed with an

offensive weapon at night and

four counts of aggravated

assault. Police allege the

football star was involved in

an incident at little sisters

town camp in Alice Springs in

March. They also allege

Jurrah's cousin basil suffered serious wounds as a

result of that incident.

Jurrah's lawyers are seeking

to challenge the let of some

of the charges and are hoping that the entire matter will

be thrown out of the Alice

Springs Magistrates Court.

Prosecutors are seeking a

trial early next year. To

sport now, the AFL's match

review panel has laid 21 charges out of the weekend

with Geelong's Matthew

Scarlett facing a one match

ban for striking. Meantime

Esposito denies its --

Essendon... 71 point

thrashing at the hands of

Geelong but Essendon defender

Carl Hardingham says the team

can't wait to take on the

Hawks. If we can take a few

positives out of the game,

we're still top 4 in defence,

and top rankings for Hawthorn

and top rankings for their

forward line. Shane Mumford

has only suffered a jarred

knee after being subbed in

the Swans win over St Kilda.

Showers on the east coast and

in the south-west. Mostly

sunny elsewhere. Thank you. After the break we're going

to look at the issue of

school funding, the Government close to

finalising its plans for

reform. We'll hear from

Christopher Pyne on this.

He's been a staunch critic of

the Gonski proposed reforms.

We'll also discuss that

warning today from Deloitte

Access Economics, the mining

boom, the clock is ticking,

only two years to run on the

mining boom which has been so

crucial in propping up our

success story for some years

now. How realistic is that assessment? Stay with us.

Good afternoon, welcome to

PM Agenda, I'm David Speers.

School funding is a hot

button issue for all Australian families, whether

your kids go to an government or independent school

everyone has a view on

whether their school reefs

enough funding and whether

other schools receive too

much. It is a difficult area

and one the Government has

been trying to tackle. Six months ago the Government received recommendations from

the Gonski review. This was

set up to come up with

recommendations. It called

for a $5 million injection from both the Commonwealth

and the states. It said

schools should be funded on a

basic amount per student with

loading to help. The

Government will announce its

response next month with a

$6.5 billion a year increase.

The Government isn't

confirming anything today but

there are serious doubts about where it would find

this sort of money and how it

would convince financially

struggling and many

politically oppose states to

cooperate. The Federal Opposition certainly won't be. Christopher Pyne has been

one of the strongest critics

of the Gonski reform model

since it was announced. He

fears independent schools

will be worse off over time

and doubts the Government

will find any way finding the

cash for this without

increasing taxes elsewhere. I

spoke to Christopher Pyne

earlier this afternoon.

Christopher Pyne, welcome. If

the Government does go ahead

with this reported $6.5

billion increase in school

funding, do you agree a lot

of parents would actually

welcome that? Look David,

planning a $6.5 billion

injection into the school

funding model on an annual

basis, which is $26 billion

over the next four years is

like planning your family

budget around winning Power

ball on Thursday night. This

is a Government whose surplus

is essentially evaporateing.

It was based on 450 boat

arrivals a month and they're

doubling that. There's no way

they'll deliver a surplus and

there is absolutely no

possibility they that they'll

have $6.5 billion to spend

extra on schools. It is a

cruel hoax. Even entertaining

the possibility is raising

expectations and trying to fool Australian parents and

I'm not going to enter into

that trickery. Some of this

money would come from the

states though, although the

bulk of it presumably would

come from the Commonwealth.

If there is a way of finding

this money, albeit through

more spending cuts or higher taxes, is there an argument

at least for increasing

school funding to this extent? Look David the

states are broke except for

Western Australia. The

Federal Government has a

massive debt problem, has no

surplus, is running

essentially a deficit budget

in real sense. If the

Government has new plans for increasing taxes then it

needs to outline what they

are. If it has new plans to

raise $6.5 billion a year,

remembering that the mining

tax is supposed to collect

$13 billion so if they have

plans to impose a new tax for

school funding they should come clean and explain it to

the Australian public. It is

absolutely outrageous for the

Government to put out there

that they'll be spending $6.5

billion more when everybody,

every parent knows in every

school, this is a broke

Federal Government and it

doesn't have that kinds of

money. Now that kind of

trickery, we saw it with the

carbon tax before the last

election when Julia Gillard

said there will be no carbon

tax under a Government she ed

will and now she's introduced

one. Of course the idea they

have that kind of money is

pure fancy and I'm not going

to encourage the hoaxing of the Australian people by suggesting that money is

available because it is not.

What would happen though if

the Government did find a way

of finding this money and

going ahead with the Gonski

reforms. What would happen if

the Coalition then won the

next election. Would you take

back that money? Would you

repeal any reforms in place?

It's like asking me if it's

true that white rabbits talk

in Alice in Wonderland . If

the Government has $26

billion. Let's see it. The

Coalition does not believe

that the current funding

model is broken. I'm not

prepared to simply accept

that it's broken because it

isn't. It is an objective

needs-based model that

encourage s private

investment that rewards

parents who Scrimp and save

to put their children in

non-government schools. If

the Gonski model was

implemented lock stock and

barrel hundreds of schools

would still miss out, lose

funding and push up parents'

fees. If the Gonski report

goes ahead without extra

money all schools will be

facing higher school fees at

a time of real cost in living

pressures. Whatever way you

implement the Gonski model

hundreds of schools will be

worse off, that means tens of

thousands of parents, if the

Gonski model is implement ed

without the extra money all

schools will be worse off.

Let's see what the government

is doing, now they've gone

very quiet on the subject. The Minister for School

Education isn't even at work

at the moment, isn't on duty.

Let's see the colour of the

Government's money before we start praising anything

they're doing in this space

at all. The Government

though says no school will be

a dollar worse off and

funding will be indexed. This

is just an argument about the

sort of indexation that's

going to be used. You want to stick with the current

funding formula. Are you

therefore saying there is no

case for reform here? Look

David talk is cheap. The

Government keeps talking.

It's had since February this

year when it was publicly

released, the Gonski review,

it's had the Gonski re view

since last December, it's

still talking, all hot air.

Let's see the Government's

response, the colour of their

money. The Coalition has made

a commitment that we will

index the current school

funding at 6%. The

Government's made no such

promise to the non-government

sector. Of the Government

says they'd lose no dollar in

funding. That means no

indexation, that's a $64.2

billion cut to non-government schools. All of this is just

hot air, just talk from a Government that's long on

talk and short on delivery.

Let's see the colour of their

money. But if you're going

to guarantee a 6% funding

rise for all schools, does

that mean to find the funding

for that you would have to

undo whatever the Government

does on this? I don't

believe the Government will

do anything on the Gonski

review. They're running out

of time. They won't have time

this year to implement

legislation, they don't have

the money. They've completely

run into a cul-de-sac on this issue. I believe they'll

simply roll the current SES

funding model over for

another year to get them

through their third election

without a policy by holding

out unrealistic expectations

to schools and parents. I'm

not going to encourage those

unrealistic expectations by

pretending that the Federal

Government has $26 billion in

new money to spend in the

Government sector. What

about the other part of this

reform? The recommendation

for greater transparency so

parents can have more information on the

performance of individual

teachers. Do you support that

side of these proposed

reforms? I think the

teachers, principals and

schools are heavily

overregulated. Whenever the

Federal Government has run

out of things to say, they

always talk about more transparency and

accountability and what that

always means is more red

tape, more bureaucracy, more

hours spent by teachers and

principals filling out forms.

What schools need is less red

tape, less bureaucracy. What

parents want is to see their

teachers teaching rather than

acting as bureaucrats from

the classroom. I can't see

what more transparency or accountability could be required by schools for

parents. Quite frankly what

teachers need is the

opportunity to have more

professional development.

What new teachers need is

better training. So we have

the highest quality teachers

teaching the most robust

curriculum with parents as

involved as possible in their

schools which means more

principal autonomy and more

local control by councils. Just final ly Christopher

Pyne on a separate matter,

Peter Slipper, the court case

on sexual harassment claims

has been adjourned. If the

case is thrown out by the

court should he be allowed to return to the Speaker's

chair? Look I haven't seen

the outcome of the actions in

the fed call court today.

From listening to your news

briefs it appears that that

hasn't been what the Federal

Court has decided. The

Speaker's use of the

Cabcharge dockets hasn't been

resolved. Until both are resolved I don't think it's appropriate for the Speaker

to resume the chair. Of

course no comment from the

Government on this today but certainly when they do

finalise and announce their

plans for school funding we

will bring in more on that.

After the break we're going

to discuss the budget warning from Deloitte Access

Economics today. The mining

boom could only have two years left to run. Is that

right and what would it mean

for the budget and our policy settings? Stay with us.

You're watching PM

Agenda, our panel in just a

moment. First a check of the

top stories. Here's Jacinta

Tynan. The family and

friends of the victims and

survivors of the Aurora cinema massacre have paused

to remember the day their

lives changed forever. A memorial service was held in

Colorado for the 12 people

who were bunked down at the

premier yeah of the Batman

film on Monday night.

President Obama has expressed

his condolences to the

families. The alleged gunman

James Holmes will face court tomorrow. A Deloitte Access

Economics report has warned

that the mining boom has only

another two years to run.

Access director Chris

Richardson says despite our

economy being stronger than

other nations it's dependent

on combrurp and China not

getting any worse. The report

also says the Government will

have difficult returning the

budget to surplus as planned.

Julia Gillard has rejected

the claim. The Peter Slipper

case has been adjourned until

October the 2nd. Lawyers had

been trying to get the case

thrown out. Julia Gillard has

welcomed the Zim ban wan

Prime Minister to Canberra

Morgan Tsvangirai says

Zimbabwe is open for business

having gone through some dark

days. Mr Tsvangirai wants to

further links between the two

countries. Hundreds of Australians have been

targeted by a so called hit

man scam after receiving

death threat text messages on

their mobile phones ordering

them to pay thousands of

dollars. It includes the line

someone paid me to kill you,

you'll have 48 hours to pay

$5,000, if you inform the

police or anybody death is promised. Police say delete

the message, do not pay any

money and there's no need to

be alarmed. The origin of the message is under

investigation. In sport Adam

Scott admits he let a great

chance slip after losing the

British Open by one shot.

Handing the win to South

African Ernie Els . Tomorrow

showers on the east coast.

Mostly sunny elsewhere.

We're going to check in on

the Essential poll as we do

each Monday. The latest

opinion poll numbers and how

they look, Peter Lewis joins

us from Sydney. Peter thanks

for your time. Look, the

numbers have been stuck in

your poll for months. They

moved a little bit last week,

now they've gone back to

where they were That's

right, back to where we were

four weeks ago 33% primary

vote for Labor. That washes

out of a two party preferred

of 56/44. You've also asked

a couple of questions this

week picking up on the

industrial relations debate

which the Government is

pretty keen to push to warn about what Tony Abbott might

do in this area. You've asked

what people think Tony Abbott

would do. How like ly they

think it would be that he

would bring back laws similar

to WorkChoices. Yes, there's

been emphatic denial from the

Coalition. Most people think

it's likely, 26% very likely,

27% quite likely that the

Liberal Party if it won power

would bring back industrial

relation laws similar to

WorkChoices. And when you've

asked whether Australian

workers would be better off

under an Abbott Government,

not great news there for the Coalition. Not great but

this should be a real brand

advantage for Labor. It's

almost line ball, 37% worse

off 32% better off. That

should be an area that

Labor's well ahead of.

They've not done as well as

they traditionally do on

that. Correct, particularly

with the Labor voters 75%

still think it's going to be

a lot worse for them under

Abbott. Expect Labor and the

union movement to try and

address this and target the WorkChoices scare campaign no

doubt before the election.

Thanks very much for that.

We'll catch up next week.

Joining me here in Canberra

Grahame Morris with now with

bort pb beakan. Thanks both

for joining us. I want to

start with the warning that

we heard from Deloitte Access

Economics on what's happening

with the mining boom and how it's going to impact on the budget. We should point out

the report that's released

today is actually titled

glass half full. There are

some positive message here

but it does say Australia is

a global standout, growth

which has not been seen in many other nations. That's

true, but it does warn the

mining boom could come to an

end in two years. Have a

look at some of these charts. The stock market in Australia

has been flat for some time.

This goes back to preglobal

financial crisis when the

market was above 6,000

points, you can see where it

hits off in December 08 since

then some recovery, pretty

stagnant. The second set of

figures I want to show you is

what's happening in China.

This is what the Deloitte

access report points to as

well. Growth in China peaked

by the looks of it here a

couple of years ago and the trend as you can see there

has been slower. It is still

an impressive figure, 8.1%,

since that we've seen it come

down to 6.5%. For this reason

Chris Richardson is the

Deloitte Access Economics is

making this warning. Take a

look at what he had to say

this morning on Sky News.

It's still got legs, in the

senses that there is a magnificent pipeline of

investment projects, massive

mining projects. They're

still the key driver of

growth in Australia. But the

pace at which new ones are

now being approved is rather

less. Probably towards the

end of 2014 you'll see a peak

in that and it will start to

move down again. So Grahame Morris, do you think that's

an overly pessimistic view or

an accurate view of what's happening with the mining

boom? Well, I happen to

think that Chris Richardson

is the best at this in the

country but he's also a bit

of a pessimist. I've heard

him go up and down on how

long the China boom will

last, at the moment he's

going down but he has been

up. It's hard to think all of

a sudden we just fall off a

cliff. Yes, China at some

stage is going to slow but

not stop. It is still going

to be absolutely crucial for Australia for at least

another decade. And even

then, you know, let's say it

does slow a little bit, well

then you've got this entire middle class of Chinese

people who are going to be

looking for our agricultural

products, our food, our - you

know, in some cases it will

be our rural land and in

other cases it will be

services. How do you get a good health service in

China? So it's a second wave

of... We can do it. Gain

for Australia. If we're

ready, if our country is

clever and we look at where

these opportunities are going

to be. The idea in two years

time all of our ironier is

worthless, not going to happen. This is probably

right arrively, the other

point is it's not just China

that's going through this

urbanisation and growth in

the middle class. It's going

to happen in India, Indonesia

as well, we are well placed.

Whether we take advantage of

it or not as Graham says is

true. Should we be worried?

Let's not forget we're coming

off the back of 21 years of

continuous economic growth

anyway. That is unprecedented

globally, particularly in an environment environments

where the rest of the world

is tanking. For us to

continue to stay afloat let

alone thrive is an

achievement in itself. Mining

boom, call it what you want,

sustained investment over 15

years, is that a boom or is

that an evolution of the

industry? Who knows.

Queensland resource council

President today says they

don't talk about booms, they

talk about a pipeline of

investment, that's not going

to fall off a cliff as Graham

has said. Even if thrletion a

flat lining or a decrease in

the prices we're looking at

and the level of demand

coming out of China, it's

going to be replaced whether

or not by India and others,

but equally we are pretty

complex economy, we've got a

great services sector,

whether it be in international education or in

financial services. Which we've had trouble getting

access to the Chinese market

in a lot of those service

areas. If it does develop there's great potential

there. Absolutely, and we've

had some issues in the past.

That seems to all be getting

fixed at the moment. We're

seeing that there's annen

crease, a bit of an uptake in

levels of students coming

back into the country. Nonetheless for the

Government here the great

danger is not hitting that

budget surplus, it's not

going to take much for that

to happen. It's a very, very

narrow surplus target. If

growth in China is edging

down, there is the very real

likelihood that surplus is

going to be missed without

higher taxes or more spending

cuts. Graham do you think the

Government will have to at

some point this year make

further spending cuts or

increase taxes? Or panic.

Look, I can see some people

setting up China and the

growth, or nongrowth in China

as a scape goat for not

hitting this surplus target.

But really it's all about

investment and jobs and

creation and tax. And the business community is just

not interested in the current

climbate, it's bloody awful

right around the country.

There are lots of things that

a Prime Minister, a

Government can do about that.

China's being set up as a

sort of a scape goat for when

the Treasury doesn't hit the

surplus, by jingeos if he

doesn't the political

ramifications for that, it

will flow through everywhere

Blaming slower growth in

China wouldn't wash for a lot

of people. The Government's

staked so much in this

surplus. Even today the PM

is out there saying the

Government will by hook or by

crook achieve a surplus. I

think one of the points to

pick up on what Graham was saying, you talk about confidence out there in the

business community, equally

you're looking at an uptake

in consumer confidence,

seeing retail sales slightly

improving, auto sales

improving in the last

quarter. There is confidence

coming back into the economy.

I don't think it's entirely

right for us to be saying

it's going to all fall at

China's feet. There is going

to be consumer led demand as

well. Sthrr sector like

housing in particular that

are very flat. Absolutely.

There's a way to go. I don't

think anybody's saying

otherwise, but I think we

can't just ignore one and

emphasise one only. When we

look at the bigger picture

question here, the mining

boom will come to an end at

some point, whether it's a

phase out or sudden drop off,

are we doing enough to

prepare for that, Graham?

Well, it would be a really

good start if we extended the

boom. And one way of doing

that is to get our foot off

the throat of the golden

goose. It has really annoyed

me that this country does not get many opportunities to

lead the world in exports and

at the moment we've got

valuable dirt that everyone wants, particularly the

people that are growing like

China. We're doing everything

possible to change the

economic climate, to change

the confidence in the mining

industry, to make the rest of

the world start looking for

other places to buy that's

commodities from. I just

think, blimey, let's get this one right before we worry

about what the hell is

happening a couple of decades

time. We need to be looking

a couple of decades time.

Valid point about whether

we're slowing down the boom

too much with the mining

tax. Then let's look at

food, let's look at services,

let's look at education as

Ashleigh said, a lot of other

stuff there that we're quite

good at exporting. At the

moment we have this golden

goose there that the Labor

Party wants to pluck. Have

we got it right, looking

beyond a mining boom. We've

got some challenges, the

mining boom is out there as a

lead example in the Australian economy, no doubt

about that. Just to pick up

on that point though, let's

look at what's going on

around the world. The

economist magazine only a

couple of weeks ago,

reasonably well regarded

publication, they came out

and said MRIT might not be

the perfect solution, but it

is going down the path of

actually saying, you've got a

valuable resource, do you

squander it now, allow mining

companies to take rah

patience profits or do you

say let's look at spreading

the wealth and spreading that

for everybody to benefit.

Let's not forget either that

it's not just - these are

Commonwealth own ed assets

under the ground. The states

would say state. When I say

Commonwealth I'm referring to

the Commonwealth, that's

right. So I think you - we

need to take a critical eye

to that and think about how

best do you spread the

benefits of the boom, is an

MRIT the way forward. This

Government seems to think

so. A lot of this debate over the mining tax will

continue, even though it's

now in place, a lot of the

focus will be what the

Coalition does, whether it

would say state. When I say

Commonwealth I'm referring to the Commonwealth, that's right. So I think righ . So I think you right. So I think you - we

need to take need to taki a need to take a critical eye

to that and to that ani think to that and think about how to that and think abo t how

best do you spread the

benefits of the boom, is an benefits of the bjom, is an MRIT the MRIT th way MRIT the way forward. MRIT the way fo MRIT the way forwnrd. This Government seems Governm nt seems to Government seems to think Government seems o think so. A lot sr. A lot of so. A lot of this debate

over the mining tax will over th, mining tax will continue, even though it's

now in place, a lot now in place, lot of now in place, a lot of the

focus will be what the focuo will be what the Coalition does, whether Coalition dses, whether it Coalition does, whether it

gets rid of it entirely or

does something else. I does something nlse. I want does something else. I want

to move on to the weekend by-election in Melbourne. by-election in Melbourn . The by-election in Melbourne. The state seat in V ctoria. state seat in Victoria. The Liberals didn t Liberals didn't contest this

time, it was really a La or time, it was really a Labor

Greens battle. Labor just got

there. They dndn't there. They didn't win on primary vote.a I primary vote. I think pr mary vote. I think their primary vote. I think their

primary vote was primary vote tas 33%, primary vote was 33%, the primary v greens 36.4, but gre ns 36.4, but preferences greens 36.4, but preferences

helped Labor over the line. helped Labor over the line. At the end of the day, At the end ofhthe day,

Ashleigh, was anyone a real Ashleigh, was anyone a r al winner out of this result, do you think? This is you think? Thi is a

you think? This is a big win

for the Labor Party. Yes it for the Labor arty. Yes it

was primarily fought on state

issues, but the re lty is issues, but the realty is they needed to win they needed to in it. they needed to wwn it. And they needed to win it. And just on the

lust on the preference just on the p eference issue just on the preference issue

there seems to be a lot there seems to bh a lot of there seems to be a lot of

banter going round about banter going r und about this banter going round about this today. Let's not forget today. today. Let's not forget i 2010 federal lection, 2010 federal election, seat

of Melbourne, Adam Bandt l st of Melbourne, Adai Bandt lost

on primary votes to the on primary vo es to the Labor on primary votes to the Labor candidate. It wms

candidate. It was only on

preference vote hat preference vote that he won. preference vo e that he won.

For the first time the reens For the first time the Greens have beaten Labor on the

primary vote. Sure, that may

well be the case but let's

look at, I wouldn't go round

- if I were in the Green camp - if I we e in the Green camp

I wouldn't be t I wouldn't be happy with I wouldn't be happy with the

result. Look at result. Look a 2009, result. Look at 2009, in result. Lo Western Australia, there Westeon Australia, there was

Western Australia, there was a by-election in Western

Australia, state level, he Australia, state level, the

Greens polled 44%. This is Greens polled 44%. This s not something victory that

the Greens have been trying

to make out. Graham if the Greens had won, if the

preferences had one the preferences had gone the

other way and the Greens other way and the Gre ns had other way and t

just won, this would have ha just won, this would have had implications for JWlia implications for Julia

Gillard wouldn't it, so it's

a pretty big relief for her. As Ad an

As an old campaigner you As an nld campaigner you need As an old campaigner you need the win and you ake

the win and you take the win.

But also all the campaigners But also all the campaigner

around the country know that

this Labor vote was an

absolute d sgrace. absolute disgrac . In absolute disgrace. In that

seat to flat out get, in

seat to flat out ge , in other words, two of other words, tw of three other words, two of three

people did not vote Labor people did not vote yabor in people did not vote Labor in

that seat and some of that s at and some of their that seat and some of the r vote was propped up vote was propp d up by vote was propped up by the vote was proppei up by the

Lynn party, it was an

absolute shocker. What can absolute shoaker. What can

we read into this in terms of

why the state mesults why the state results and federal results, fedenal results, yes federal results, yes by-elections are by-electioas are different. by-elections are differ nt.

Voters know they'reinot Voters know they're not

deciding on who's going to be

in Government or not, they

can send protest messages can send protest messages one can send prote t messages one

way or the other. But if

these sort of results were

repeated in this area and seats like s ats like it, seats like it, inner

seats like t, inner city seats like it, inner cit Melbourne, Sydnei Melbourne, Sydney and even Melbourne, Sydney and ev n Brisbane, Adelaide, Brisbani, Adelaide, what Brisbane, Adelaide, what

would that mean, Ashleigh, do

you think for the Greens? you think for the Gregns? Could it see Adam

Could it see Adam Bandt lose

his one and annual accept?

Entirely possible in Enti ely possible in my Entirely possible in my view. Entirely fossible in my view.

We are seeing a bit of a

fracturing of the political fracturingrof the political landscape ,enerally. I landscape generally. I think y u're

you're going to see while on

one level there is a bit of one level t ere is a bit of

disillusion ament out disillusioa ament out there disillusion ament out there in the elector te. in the electorate. While in the eGectorate. While there's a fracturing there's a fractu ing within there's a fracturing within

the elect Ram cycle at times the elect Ra

of election people of electi n people will of elect of election people will look very critically at ver critically at what very critically at w at political parties can political panties can offer political parties can off r

and there's only one and there' only one political party that political pvrty that is political party that is oing pol

to be able to G to be able to form Government. W 've

Government. We've seen Labor Government. We ve seen Labor hardening hardenin up

hardening up against the

Green, coming out of the NSW right faction, right faction the question right faction, th question will be for the Liberals,

what they preference, putting

them last, presumably they

will, I know you've got a

view on this too, what view on this too, what will that mean e that mean for the Greens? that mean for tne Greens? If

that mean for the Greens? If you look yo look since

you look since 2010 the Greens have promised Greens ha e promised much Greens have promised muc and

Greens have promised much and delivered delive ed bugger d livered bugger all. delivered bugger all. In delivered bugger all. n all delivered bugger all. In all these state elec ions, these state elections, even these sttte elections, even

the by-election at the weekend, people have wee end, people have been weekend, people have een saying here come the saying here nome the Greens, saying here come the Greens, in theory they'veo in theory they've been doing

all right, in practice when

it comes to the ballot box

they have not been the have not been delivering, it delitering, it may delivering, it may well delivering, it may well be, as many as maSy are as many are saying, as many are sayi g, maybe as many are sa ing, maybe they've peaked. Certainly they ve peaked. Certainly you they've peaked. Certainl you

could see both major cou d see both major parties could see both major arties next time prefere next time preferencing against them against hem in against them in certain areas. I don't think areas. I don't think that matters in the House of Reps

unless the Labor Party does unless the Labor Party do s

so badly it's going so badly it's goi g to so badly it's going to run

third. It will certainly

matter in the Senate. I think Mr Bandt in Melbourne is in Mr Bandt in Melbourne is i awful trouble. You reckon a ful trouble. You reckon

they could lose

You're watching PM jand.

We're joined by Ashleigh

Wells and Grahame Morris. The

Lane leadership, I've been

speaking to a lot of people

over the last week. I've got

no idea what is going to

happen here. I reckon anyone

who says they do is pulling

your legs. What do you

think's going on. Are we going to see Kevin Rudd

coming back. Let's keep

things in perspective. As many members of the caucus

have said, that matter was

dealt with in February. I don't know too many members

of the caucus who are particularly keen for

anything to be brought on. I

don't think there is anybody

out there seriously

considering, that I've spoken

to seriously considering that

that's a realistic option.

There are, that's the bottom

line, there are a significant

number who do want to get rid

of Julia Gillard. Look, at the end of the day though I

think there are a lot of

people within the caucus that

are saying equally that while

polls are important they're

not the sole determinant of

who is Prime Minister. So

that's a very low view. I

don't think we can

necessarily say, as you said, you don't know what's going

on, and you're very well informed. It is difficult to know what's going to happen

here. We do know a few things

though. There is a chunk of

the party that think going to

be election with Gillard is

crazy, they should change to

the guy who's twice as

popular. There's a bigger

chunk perhaps that can't stand Kevin Rudd and will

find to stop him getting back

in the job. There's no easy

answers for the party here.

We all know what they should

be doing, but you know, the

Coalition's quite happy if

they leming like just say

where they are and go over

the cliff. Look at the Prime

Minister, she has done

everything one would expect

during the winter break. You

go to a couple of the states,

Queensland and Western

Australia, you get blanket

coverage for five or six

days, try and lift yourself

there. You bucket Tony Abbott

for 12 months, particularly

in the last session, and, you

know, is there a sense that

anything changed? We're about

to find out. We saw from

Peter lieuition's polling,

nothing changed. We'll see

over the next couple of weeks

whether or not all the orthodox things the Prime

Minister should have done, if

they worked or not. The only

other things that are left is

a reshuffle, she doesn't have

the authority to do that. I

happen to like Joel

Fitzgibbon, I think he's a

very good practitioner in the

art of politics but anyone

with any authority with the

Prime Minister with this stuff last week about

leadership would have sacked

him. But she doesn't have

that authority. And you think

what is left for the Prime

Minister to try to get back

into the electorate's good

books and for people to

listen again? Well, you know,

to me the obvious answer is

that some grown-up s tap her

on the shoulder with 20 new

votes that she didn't have

before, or conversely Bill

Shorten can't do this, but

either Mark Arbib or Paul

Howes or one of the people

who were in the sort of cut

Kevin Rudd's throat last

time, they say look last time

we did it for the good of the

party and this time we think

we should do it again for the

good of the party. The

problem there is Mark Arbib

has left the parliament. Paul Howes has never been in the parliament. I don't think it

matters. I think they would

be quite influential if one of the five said I don't

think we got it wrong last

week, we should do it again.

That's the problem with the

so called faceless. Kevin

Rudd has largely laid low

since that February contest

where he said he wouldn't

challenge again. We did see Joel Fitzgibbon's comments

last week. It is hard to see

whether there is any sort of

coordinated strategy, any

stirring going on. One of the

other Labor MPs who is said

to have switched now away from Julia Gillard to Kevin

Rudd is Richard Marles.

Here's what he had to say

this morning on Sky News.

You wouldn't support a Rudd return under any

circumstance? What, I'll

leave the speculation about

leadership to the media. I

don't think there is a

leadership issue here and I

support the Prime Minister.

I support the Prime Minister

is usually the line used when

you're not exactly supporting

the Prime Minister but what

do you think, Ashleigh? I

think Richard and to a lesser extent this conversation has

shown, this debate is really

being fuelled by

commentators. Yep. It is

going on every day, without

fail in the print media, in

the electronic media. The

very fact that you said

earlier you don't know what's

going o we don't know what's

going on, that reflects the

fact that, well ultimately it

is a matter for the caucus,

none of us are members of the

caucus and they're all saying

mum. So this is a debate and

a discussion that is

happening out there in commentator world with the

likes of us sitting around

here talking about it and it

doesn't matter one jot. Some

of them are no doubt using

the media to get various

views across. I think

everyone needs to be fairly

careful about being used in

this situation. Look, that

might be right, but the

electorate is actually

saying, two thirds of them

they want a change. Now, the

Labor Party, I'm a great

believer in having strong two party system and at the

moment the Labor Party is

committing suicide. I'm sure

we will however end up

talking about this again.

Good to have you here. Thanks

for your company as well.

We'll be back same time tomorrow. See you then.

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