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Australian Agenda -

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(generated from captions) coverage, this is Sky News,

Australia's news channel.

This is PM Agenda. Good

afternoon, I'm David Speers,

coming to you live from welcome to the program,

parliament house in Canberra.

There is a deep lack of

confidence in Australia at

the moment in both politics

and the economy. The markets

and the polls tell the story today. Australians aren't happy with the choice on today. Australians aren't

offer here in Canberra.

They're certainly pessimistic about the economy. The

Australian market has lost

more than 20 billion in value

today. We will take a look

at that coming up. Clearly

this is being driven by

concerns of where things are

United States. Here in going in Europe and the

Australia too. This will be

a big week for the economy,

tomorrow the Reserve Bank

will let us know whether home

buyers are going to get more

relieve in terms of another

interest rate cut. Many are

predicting we will get a

further rethen the accounts

figure, Thursday the latest

unemployment data. It will

be a week of much focus on

the economy. Tony Abbott is

using this uncertainty over

the economy to pile more pressure on the Government

over the carbon tax. He says

now is the worst time to now is the worst time to be

introducing such a tax. We will know within time what

sort of impact the carbon tax

actually does have. What we

do know right now though the

the cost-of-living impact in

one area at least childcare,

a lot of families at the

moment are absolutely

struggling to make ends meet

to pay for the childcare

fees. They have gone up an

estimated 11% in one year,

the average being paid by

families now more than $70 a

day. We're going to be

talking to the minister for

childcare, Kate Ellis, coming

up this hour. We're also

going to be talking to

independent MP Bob Katter.

He's today issued a call to

arms, calling for expressions

of interests for candidates

to stand at Cater's

Australian party in the next election, lower house and

Senate seats. We will talk

to Bob about what he's

looking for and hoping to

achieve in the Federal

election. How many seats

does he think he'll be able

to win. A little later, not

all doom and gloom, you saw

more than a million people

lining the banks of the

Thames in London to celebrate the Diamond Jubilee, the

Queen notching up 60 years on

the thrown. We're going to

be taking a look at what

power does the Queen really power does the Queen really

have. Does she use it? What

does on behind closed doors,

the Queen one of the most

famous people in the world really someone we know very

little about. We will be

talking to a Professor of

constitutional law who has

carefully researched what the

Queen actually does. To the

top stories. The Australian

share market as we heard at its lowest point in six

months this afternoon around 20 billion already wiped off

the value of local stocks.

The aSX faring now Bridie

Barry joins us now. Across

the screens today we had out of Wall Street Friday night

the weaker than expected read

on jobs there. That sent

Wall Street the three major

industrial average wiping out indiceses, the Dow Jones

the gains for 2012, plus the

concerns about the slow down

in China. We had that weak

read on manufacturing out on

Friday has really added to

concerns about the slowing in

growth globally prompted of

course by the Eurozone

crisis, all of that seeing

investors in Australia today

also fleeing to safety and

exiting a lot of these

stocks. We have got the

benchmark down 1.7%, $3933

points at this stage, lowest

level since late November

year. The major sectors,

dragging the overall market

down, energy we saw all

prices slide over the

weekend, energy being the

worst performing sector here

today down about 3%,

materials the big mining

companies also struggling, of

course they depend on China

for growth. We have got bHP

down about 3% at $30.76, Rio

Tinto 4.6% at $52.98. Banks

weaker today the losses not

quite as steep as energy and

materials, NAB down 1.7% and

aNZ, two of the big four that

fared the worst. Elsewhere,

one sector managed to see

gains that is the tell comes

supported of course by

Telstra which added 1%, $3.67

as we go through the matchup

now. Considered

traditionally a defensive

type play there. Also gold

stocks doing quite well

today. We did see that 4%

rise in the gold price over

the weekend, seen as a safe

haven for investors, a lot of

those gold stocks doing well,

the biggest goldminer on the

market new crest adding 1.8%,

not just the tell comes, the

defensive type stocks, the

gold stocks doing well, bonds

of course also, investors

seeking safety there. We

have seen yields plunge to

record lose, US treasuries,

German and Australian

Government bonds as well, analysts are saying we're at

a bit of a crossroads,

perhaps the market turmoil

could prompt more policy action globally. Whether we

go further from here or that

policy action sees a bounce

we will have to wait and see.

Thank you, bridy, we will

talk to you later. Nigeria's

president has declared three

days of national mourning for

the victims of a plain crash,

300 people were on board the

plane when it crashed into

buildings in Lagos. The

smouldering wreckage quickly

surrounded. Some helped

firefighters bring in water

hoses others desperately

searching for survivors. It

soon became apparent there

was little they could do.

The crowds hammering the

efforts of the emergency

services some simply filmed

the scene on their mobile

phones. The plane had been

travelling from the Nigerian

capital of buja with 150

people on board when it

crashed close to Lagos

airport on Sunday afternoon.

It believed it landed on a

furniture shop as well as

residential buildings in what

was a densely populated part

of the city. The nose of the

plane was left embedded in a

three storey apt building.

Witnesses say it sounded like

a bomb exploding. We were

outside, I thought it was

going to land on top of my

head. The plane passed, it

bent, we noticed it crashed.

It's believed that no-one on

the plane survived.

Nigeria's national emergency management agency say there

are likely to be more

casualties on the ground.

It's not been confirmed what

type of plane this was, but

Dana Air's website says it

operates Boeing MD83 plains

to cities around Nigeria. As

aircraft continued to fly

over head the wreckage and potential victims remained the priority. Finding out

what caused the crash may

take some time. Sky News. A

bikie clubhouse and a tattoo

parlour have been shot at in

Brisbane, the Banditos

clubhouse was sprayed with bullets, residents reported

hearing the gunshots and

called police. It is concerning. It is something

that we will take very

seriously, are and our

investigators including task

force hydro are taking a

front foot approach to it.

The shootings come as the

plips label a court

submission to label a Gold

Coast gang a criminal

association. Troops in

Lebanon have entered parts of

Tripoli to restore calm after

casualties. 14 people have

been killed and 40 wounded in

fighting that broke out on

Saturday and lasted 30 hours.

Sectarian violence has flared

several times in the Lebanese

city of Tripoli since city of Tripoli since the

uprising began. Crowds have

gathered in Tahrir Square in

the second night running of

the acquittal of security officials on trial for the

killing of protesters in last

year's uprising. The former

president Mubarak what is been handed a life sentence

in his role in the killings

of 900 protesters, his sons

and security officials were

killed by the court. More than million people have

lined the banks of the Thames

to celebrate the Queen's

Diamond Jubilee, Her Majesty

and the Royal family took

centre stage among a record

breaking flotilla of 1000

vessels to mark the 60 years

on the thoen, the

celebrations tipped, Julia

Gillard and TAB will light

ceremonial bee cons on the

lawns of parliamentary house.

Joining Paul Murray live on

Sky News Canberra as the bae

conis lit Sky News and aPAC will continue to bring you the colour and movement from

the celebrations. APAC is

live from London on channel

648. Tomorrow's weather

forecast, windy with heavy

rain in the southeast,

showers developing in the

west. Back to David Speers in

Canberra as PM Agenda

continues. Thank you. After

the break we're talking

childcare costs with the

minister, Kate Ellis. We

will also be joined by Bob

Katter. The independent MP

who has high hopes for the

next federal election,

looking for candidates to

stand in lower and upper

house seats of the a little

later we will be talking

about the Diamond Jubilee, looking at what goes on

behind the scenes. What

power does the Queen actually

wield? Does she use the

Power she has? We will be

talking about that with a

constitutional lawyer, stay

with us.

Welcome to the program, I'm

David Speers, the markets

have just closed for the day

ended up 1.94% down, that is the worst result in six

months. We will find out

tomorrow if the Reserve Bank

is going to try to restore a

bit of confidence in the

market by cutting interest

rates again after last

month's half a% cut, many are

expecting we will see a cut

tomorrow. One of the biggest cost-of-living pressures felt

by families now is undoubtedly childcare, fees

went up an estimated 1 #%

over the past year, and -

11%. Feared as many as 180

workers are leaving the sector each week because of

the very poor pay and

conditions. Families are now

paying on average more than

70 a day for a childcare 70 a day for a childcare

place, the Government at the

moment is offering of course

a 50% rebate for childcare.

That's not means tested

capped at 7500 total rebate a

year. What more is the

Government considering doing,

though, to help ease the

pressure on families when it

comes to childcare? The

minister responsible is Kate

Ellis, she joins me now,

thanks for your time. An 11%

increase one year generate of

inflation is a fraction of

that what do you put it down

to? The latest cPI increases

is not as big as 11% that's a

figure which has been thrown

a around. What we know and families know the childcare

costs are increasing. What

the Government is very keen

to remind and assure families as those childcare costs

increase the Government assistance increases even

more. We have seen that we

now have record levels of government assistance going

to families, so while you

talk about $70 a day some

people in the last 24 hours

have been talking about $100

a day or more in fees. Of course the Government is

picking up 50% of those

costs, we are very proud to

do that. We know how hard it

can be to juggle all of these

burdens on the family budget

as well as juggling work.

The rebate is important to

families, but getting back to

that question, when fees do

go up they're still out of

pocket. Why are fees going

on so fast? We have actually

keen that the cPI increase

was lower than it was in the

last two years of the Howard

government. Childcare fees

do rise, they've been rising

for a long time. This is not new, something that's been

going on for years. What is

now knew we have increased

the level of government

assistance to accompany the

price increases. You have

also increased the

requirements on childcare

operators, the staff to child

ratio, the minimum skills

standard for workers, are

these contributing to the

costs? And qualifications.

We were upfront when we went

to the Australian people saying this is what we should

do, we have all the research

about how critical the early years are, what happens in

those days it's not about baby-sitting, it's about shaping the outcomes for that child and that individual.

Yeah, there are cost

implications of that. So it

is contributing to the cost

increase? It is

contributing. One thing

we're being clear on with

centres, they need to be upfront with families about

cost increase s. We have

seen outrageous cost increases. That is not

because of the changes to the quality standard it is

because of business decisions

the centres are makingment

they can't mislead families

about the causes of that, not

just the Government but the

aCCC would be interested in

that. You think there is profit tiering going on.

We're putting a warning out to child-care centres and Australian families they

should ask their child-care

centres why their fees are

going up, can they justify

where these fees are going

tochlt a very small percentage we know because we

are increasing qualifications, increasing

the number of staff. I

stand-by that as absolutely

the right thing to do. The

reason why we have made sure

these changes are brought in

over a number of years is we

don't see a major impact on

cost. The standards of

great. No doubt it's good to

focus on those benefits do

you fear a lot of families

because of the cost are going

to be forced into backyard

operations, that don't have

any of those standards

attached but are affordable:

I would absolutely fear that

if this government wasn't providing record levels of

after assistance. Just to

put that in context what we

have seen since we increased

the rebate from 30% to 50%,

we increased the cap from

4354 to 7500 we have seen

that the average disposal

income that a family has

that's been spent on

childcare as reduced

dramatically from 13% of

their family budget under the

previous government down to 7.5% under ours. That

doesn't make it easy, of

course it is still another

burden on the budget. We are

helping more than a

government has ever helped

before. What more can Labor

do, they promised in 2007

there would be 60 more

child-care centres, that

hasn't happened. Is the

rebate it or contemplating

further help? We have made

it clear we are always open

to new ways of helping families, always looking at

the next steps in reform,

always acknowledging how

important early childhood is.

Of course the job isn't done

yet. We are working with new

ways forward, new assistance

for families, bull at the

same time we have to remind

families what is available. We still have far too many families across Australia who

are dealing with these fees

each and every day, but aren't claiming the childcare

rebate, 100000 families are

receiving the fees but not

claiming the rebate. Is

there a way of claiming it

like you did with the school

kids bonus? We have tried to

do that, it can be paid

fortnightly or direct to

centres, so families don't

have to go through that,

don't see it, it comes off

the bills, we are looking at

new ways, constantly changing

the system to make it easier.

Why haven't more centres

taking it up? Since the

Government introduced it it's

28% of families who have

taken up the options, that is

a chunk of childcare users

not a chunk, but a cohort of

the market using it now, we expect that will continue to

increase. Kate Ellis, thank

you very much for that.

Thank you. We will now turn

to, well, the polls we're

going to look at a little

later actually is the Neilson

poll had bad news for Labor

we didn't ask Kate Ellis

about it, the Labor response

they're not focused too much

on the day-to-day polls.

They're dire for the

Government. Tony Abbott has

taken a hit today. One party

that is hoping to come

through the middle and

capitalise on the dissatisfaction of the two

major parties is Bob Katter's

Australian party. In March

they won two seats, Bob

Katter today has issued a

call to arms, a call for

expressions of interest to

run for his party in lower

and upper house seats. Bob

Katter joins me now. Thanks

for your time. Can you start

by asking you are you

planning on fielding a lot of

candidates on the Federal

election or focusing on a

smaller number of

realistically winnable seats?

We will focus on a larger

number of seats, the strategy

we used in the state campaign, there

campaign, there was some

criticism of that. Clearly

if we concentrated on 10 we

would have won about 10. We

didn't. We went out there

for 76 seats. You've got to understand where we were

trying to go. We're not

really interested in winning

seats in a state parliament

or in a federal parliament.

We're trying to change the

direction of government in

Australia. Free market

countries on earth are being

massacred before breakfast by the state capital lift

countries, China, India and

Brazil. If you draw a graph

as a growth of jobs in 50

years time there will be no

jobs anywhere in the world

except in China, India and

Brazil. They're making mince

meat. Free market, America

or Japan is not free

marketing the only country

free marketing is us. The

rest of the world is stupid

or we're stupid. The point

you've made there is a really

interesting one, about not

wanting to necessarily win a

whole bunch of seats but to

influence the debate. You're

talking about a building up

the support of the party to a

point where your preferences

and sheer support level can't

be ignored? No, I'm sorry,

we're going to win control of

the state and nation. Walk

into my office in Canberra

you'll see a big picture of

Ted Theodore, we're going to

win control of state and

nation. He was on a bicycle

in chillagoe in the back of

Cairns within years of making

this statement they had

control of Queensland and

held control of Queensland

for 50 years. You have want to take control of the

Senate? Most certainly.

That's an easy one, no, our

ambitions are much greater

than that. I mean I would

like to be moving into

like to be moving into

retirement, at my time of

life. We have a country now

that has two industries, an

iron ore quarry and a Cole

quarry, I admire them, laud

them in the history books,

bjelke Peterson and Les

Theiss we have also else.

All the agriculture is gone,

I haven't looked at the

figures there is a fair

chance we will be a net

importer of food in China. Almost all of our seafood

now, a lot of people eat

seafood in Australia almost

all of it is coming from

overseas. A large proportion

of that is from China,

Thailand and Vietnam. You've

also railed against the plan

to bring in foreign workers

on big mining projects which

the two major parties

support. What do you say to

the argument these companies

just can't find enough

Australian workers willing to

do the jobs where they're

located? My answer to that is to burst out laughing

because there's no

alternative to laughing, I

mean, there are 299000 people

registered for full time work

in Queensland that can't find

full-time work. Now, if Gina

Rinehart and Clive Palmer and

the Indian company adarni

can't find any workers out of

290000 people I would say

they should sac their recruitment officers

immediately. Where it's an

insult to our intelligence

the great growth of mining in

Australia was under bjelke

Petersen to Cole industry in

Australia and Charles court

the iron ore industry, the

two great men Lang han come

and of course Les Theiss.

They banned fly and mine --

fly in mining within the

state, you couldn't fly in

mine in the state The subject

of the inquiry was the

decision to allow them to fly

and mine to argile to Alan

bond. In Queensland the

minute that Petersen was gone

from the seat fly in mining

started in the state. We

could find enough workers for

a starting start to create

the greatest forward thrust

in mining in Australian

history, in Australian

history since Hargreaves

found gold. We could find

them then. What they can't

find any now? I mean don't

insult our intelligence.

This is all about bringing in

people who work for half the

price that Australians will

work for, and be very Supine,

taking away our jobs, these

are the plum jobs in

Australia, 175000 a year

these jobs for driving a jobs

these jobs, they won't go to Australians, they're going to

go to foreigners. Of course

they will undermine our

awards, and undermine our

working conditions as well.

That was the reason the Labor

Party was formed. Can I

bring you back to your call

to arms today. Can I finally

ask what sort of candidates

are you looking for? Who

should apply who need not

apply. Secondly the number

of seats you really are

expecting to win. I know in

Queensland you performed

reasonably well for a debut

performance, two sets isn't

what you for cast. What

would be a success at the

Federal election? . This

isn't any news to anyone.

Our name was taken off the

ballot paper, my name was

taken off the ballot party.

We were not allowed to use

our party name, the

Australian party no-one knew

who it was, we had an internal poll done for us

inside the party, it showed

8.5%. We lost as a result of

that decision. It cheated us

out of 8.5% of our vote. If

you take 8.5% off the LNP and

hand it to us we're leading.

In Queensland you had first

past the post voting, a

simple tonne's arrangement.

That's what you have in Queensland, a primitive

voting system. No-one else in the world to my knowledge

has it, we have it here in

Queensland. That was greatly

add vant taj Gus to the LNP.

You're not going to get it in

the Federal arena, it will be preferential voting. That

will be good for our party.

If you add that 8.5% in 33

seats we had over 15%, in 20

seats we had over 20%, if you

take it off the LNP and give

it to us you're looking down

the gun barrel of a sizable

amount of seats and senators

as well. Not only in Queensland but in other

states as well. Who believes

that foreign workers should

take Australian jobs? I mean

the first arrangement is 2000

workers. It's aLP government

that make that decision. I

mean the LNP premier in

Queensland beat the aLP

premier to it by two weeks

handouts he said before the

election he wasn't in favour

of it, two weeks after the

election he said he was going

to facilitate it but the aLP

and LNP have been running

Australia, time's up fellas.

I take it supporters of that

policy need not apply to

stand for your party. We

will have to leave it there,

thank you for joining us.

After the break our panel

with Graham Morris and Bruce Hawker, stay with us.

You're watching PM Agenda,

time for a quick check of the

news headlines, here is

Jacinta. It's a sea of red on

the local share market with

stocks plunging to six month

lose, the aSX is down more

than 1.5% following the lead

from Wul Street which closed

dramatically down on the

weekend. It will put further

pressure on the RBA to slash

official interest rates when

it meets tomorrow. Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathon

has decreed three days of

national mourning and asked

for an investigation into the

plane crash in Lagos. It

plunged into a church, printing shop and two storey

apt in Nigeria's largest

city. A number of people on

the ground are also believed

to have died and rescue ers

are still pulling survivors

out of rubble. Egypt's state

prosecutor has lodged an

appeal in the trial of the

former president Hosni

Mubarak his sons and senior

security officials. Growing

anger since the verdict was

passed with thousands of

protesters streaming into

Cairo's Tahrir Square calling

for a protest outing Hosni

Mubarak. Police are

investigating two shootings

bikie related, bullets were

sprayed at the Banditos

clubhouse. A tattoo parlour

in Melbourne owned by a

member of the Banditos gang

was also hit. The Prime

Minister will light the

Queen's jubilee beacon in

Canberra, a historical day

with more than a million

people lined the Thames for

the Diamond Jubilee pageant,

a record breaking flotilla of

1000 vessels to mark her 60

years on the thrown. Scott

Pendlebury is optimistic his

knee injury isn't too

serious, he undertook scans

this morningment the Bombers

believe they need to work on

the handling, and the

attitude after losing to the

previously winless Melbourne.

Windy with heavy rain in the

southeast, showers developing

in the west Thank you, the

polls, the polls, the polls!

None of them are terribly

good for Labor at the moment,

the fair tax Neilson poll a

shocker for the Government

bad news in terms of Tony

Abbott with the approval

rating: the essential poll

this afternoon it showed slightly better figures from

Labor, Peter Lewis from

essential media

communications to tell us

about it. You have no change

in terms of the primary vote

Labor stuck at 33% primary

vote, two party split that

heavily favours the

coalition. That's right

David coalition at 33. A

half of the ee tore rat

versus a third. We had a

tiny change around the

decimal points which has

tipped the TPP we haven't

picked that turbulence we saw

in the Neilson poll. Craig

Thomson, you asked a series

of questions about this issue

and what voters think about

it. How important do voters

see the issue? What do they

think of the way it's been

handled? Interesting, David

firstly in terms of

importance, 30% very

important, 36 quite

important, 18% not very

important at all. Again like

most things we poll your

voting intention really

shapes your attitude.

Coalition voters 49% think

it's very important, 17% of

Labor voters, 17% of greens

out of interest there as

well. Again one of those

issues that's caught up in

the partisan process now.

When it gets to how the

various parties have dealt

with this. The coalition's

pursuit of it, the Government's defence of Craig

Thomson, the media as well in

covering this what do people

think. We are getting to the

point of a pox on all your

houses, no-one coming out of

this well, 49% poorly, the

Liberal shall 19 pel, 40%

poorly, Craig Thomson 6% well

and 6% poorly, 7% poorly.

We're changing the phase to

it being brand damage for

labour to segment damage for

politics as well. Interesting point, thanks

for that, catch up with you

next week. Cheers. We will

bring in the panel Graham

Morris and Bruce Hawker,

welcome to you both. I want

to talk about the Fairfax

Neilson poll which came out

this morning, a dismal

primary vote much worse than

that essential pole, 26%

support for Labor in the

Fairfax Neilson poll equalled

to the record low down 2

points since the last one, particularly concerning I

suppose after the budget

goodies that were directed at

families a few weeks ago. On

this poll the coalition would

win an election with a 7%

swing which would be the

biggest in nearly 40 years,

but the poll ster John sterj

Gus made the point no

Opposition Leader has won an

election with a net a

personal rate in the

negative. Tony Abbott's is. His personal rate sank a

further 5 points in this

poll. He remains unpopular

there. That's his approval

and his disapproval. So his

disapproval at 57%, his

approval rating only at 39%,

finally this was another one

I thought was really are

interesting in this Nielsen

poll Kevin Rudd is far more

popular than Julia Gillard,

how he compares to Tony

Abbott, Kevin Rudd increasingly popular over

Tony Abbott, food for thought

with the Labor MPs weighing

up where they are at the

moment. Bruce Hawker, what

do you think of those sort of

numbers? He's in more

trouble than the early

settlers David, we have a

long, long way to go, before

we can feel any sense of comfort in any of the numbers

we see there. The only

comfort that we do get from

it I think is that Tony

Abbott's numbers are so bad

and I think, however, that

the opposition will probably

try to start presenting a

more positive image for him

in the coming days and weeks.

On that front, you know, I

just note in some ways he's

been a very effective

Opposition Leader in driving

the negatives down, or

driving the negatives up for

the Government. When you do

that you invariably drive

your own negatives up as

well, so that is the big

opportunity for Labor going

into the next few weeks and

months to really start to

turn the attention on to Tony

Abbott. I think what Peter

Lewis said at the end is

probably right it's a sense

in the electorate that

politics generally is being

played out at a pretty rank

level. I suspect that the

hung parliament has something

to do with that, the fact

that we have people like

Craig Thomson playing such an

important role in the

political life of the nation

means that everyone is being tarn initialled by that.

Well, Tony Abbott as you can

see on your screen there didn't change his tactics on

the basis of today's poll at

all. He went to a council waste disposal centre,

perhaps not going to rubbish

dump not the best day on the

day where your poll numbers

slide, I don't think he's

heading for the rubbish dump

any time soon, Graham Morris,

he's keeping up his

relentless attack on the

carbon tax, the question when

are you going to turn

positive, he says getting rid

of this tax is positive. No

change of tack for him, would

he be worried about that personal satisfaction number

or not? Everyone loves to be

loved, he knows as well as I

do, I keep trying to educate

journalists and pollsters

that the opposition leader's

figure has never mattered

otherwise Malcolm Fraser,

John Howard were never in

front either and wouldn't

have become Prime Minister.

Kevin Rudd had a positive

position. It doesn't matter,

all about the party vote. At

best one in three people is

going to vote Labor. We have just had billions of dollars

given away on the budget and

the Labor Party effective went backwards. Last month during the budget the Prime

Minister had to get, had to

win 90000 votes per month

every month for 18 months

just to get back to the level

of a hung parliament and

another month has gone,

offered billions, and what is

more worrying, I think for

the Government is that was

the last chance between now

and then, never going to be

front page news stories

again, saying, oh well some pensioners might get some

money or some workers might

get a bit of a handout. From

here on in it's all going to

be bad news. Bruce, you said

Labor in more trouble than

the early settlers, the

bottom line is you can't go into an morary vote of I thinko, you an't, that thet, that wou is the g in the and theg in the ord and ting in the againg us again, us with againg us with oh well again, us with 40 well so. peleaving us ght That wouers migh

money, potentialrkers moult, potent workerspe us hneration, s has be ly. I thinBruce, be bad I think the, you s Labmfort in therouble comfort inre troubt the Abbott doeettlers,m to bottAbbott does to bottto change hyou can' I oach to into to politics,with can'tight now. cay right nowould be

ing, that's wipe that's theld loose raham says n the somet says his somethsays his peorder of ort may set may not seatsay not be hliament, leavi lit. Chrie cth

leavin 0 perhap Tha ould

He's got a new grandchild,

very happy in his own skin, I

think. That is the rub now

for everybody. I don't think

Kevin Rudd is in any great

hurry after what we went

through a few months ago to

go through that process

again. Why would he? If the

party came to him, surely,

with a tap on the shoulder to

Julia Gillard surely he

wouldn't refuse it. I'm

probably the last person to

work out what the party

should do. I had a certain

views of that. You might be

the best person to tell us

what Kevin Rudd would do. We

have to to ask Kevin Rudd

what his view is of that. I wouldn't be presumptive

enough to speak on his

behalf. Bruce has to be

careful. How do you see it?

Look, the Labor Party notice

a position now there is no

policy solution any more,

when you're this low it's a

personnel solution, and for

those marginal seats out

there, I can tell them, any

minister the most - the best

campaigner the Labor Party

has ever has on either side

of politics is worth 2%,

2.5%, that's the very best.

Any marginal seat member the

best they can do is 2%, 2.5%

for their own brilliance, 5%,

6%, 8% is going to go over

the top of them. This is a

personnel problem. I thought

too how would you do it, Bill Shorten said he's not going to challenge the Prime Minister others aren't going

to challenge, Kevin won't, at some stage people will look

back on this 26 pole, they

will say this is the

beginning when 20-odd people

started to get together to

tap the Prime Minister on the

shoulder. It wouldn't have

to be 20 very senior people

for the Prime Minister to

move, Beijingos if I was

sitting in any seat under 8%

I'd be trying to find 20

people before Christmas. You

said before Christmas what

about the upcoming winter

break, off to the break, when

the carbon tax will come in

in that time. Would you let

Julia Gillard stay in there

and absorb the introduction

of the carbon tax or get it

over and done with? A lot of

talk about things will happen

in July, I don't understand

it. The best time for any

change, particularly this one

that is coming is Christmas

time, a new leader can pick a

new team to have a chance to

get them all ready before parliament resumes in February for an election

year. Doing it now, many

would say it is time, we

can't wait any further, but

I'm not quite sure that there

are 20 people ready to tap

the Prime Minister on the

shoulder, and for whom, in an

ideal world if you're a Labor

person it would be Kevin one

and shorten two. That's a

deadly combination. Can this

drag out to the end of the

year? Well, I think Julia

Gillard actually is owed the

opportunity to sell the

compensation package. The

tax basically kicks in as we

know at the beginning of July, although the

compensation for it is now

starting to come about. I

think the ads may have some

effect. I for one actually

felt the ads should have

mentioned the carbon tax,

absent the carbon tax in the

ads it doesn't really make it

clear what people are being

compensated for. Cleerl a decision was made about that.

I think the party has made a

decision they're going to

allow this process to take

its course, that Julia and

others have made it quite

clear that they believe they

can sell the compensation

package and the merits of the

tax, and obviously if that's

the case then you need beyond

the winter break in order to

do that. Because the tax

doesn't even come into place

until 1 July at the end. If

I was advising the Prime

Minister I'd say deh beware

the Christmas Elves. Thanks

for that we will catch up

later. The Diamond Jubilee,

we will be taking a close

look at what the Queen actually does. actually does. What power

she has. Does she use it?

Stay with us.

Yes, the Diamond Jubilee in

case you've been under a rock

the past few days the Queen

is celebrating her 60 years

on the thrown, a million

people plus lined the banks

of the Thames in London under

fairly gloomy skies which

turned out to be the largest

parade of boats ever

according to the Guinness Book of Records. Everyone

had a good time. 60 years on

the thrown is more than just

an excuse for a celebration.

It is a point to contemplate who this extraordinary person

is, the same job for 60

years, a job like any other.

The Queen is perhaps the most

famous person in the world.

In reality we know very

little about who she is, what

she does. What goes on

beyond closed doors? What

powers does have the Queen

have? Does she use them, does shem interfere or

intervene in political matters at all?

matters at all? Anne too

manyey is a Professor of

constitutional law in Sydney.

She has researched some of

these questions, Professor,

thank you for your time. A

lot of people assume the

Queen has reserve powers

under the constitution but

doesn't use them, fall back

powers, does she use them and what powers does she have?

It's actually really hard to

find out. There are extreme

secrecy laws that prevent us

from finding out how she

exercises the constitutional

powers, we know she hasn't

sacked a Prime Minister

recently or refused Royal

assent to a bill. She

doesn't need to exercise her

formal powers to do those

things, she has a level of

soft powers beneath it. She

can get to things first

before coming to the time she exercises those powers

formally. You argue she is very adept at using soft

power? Yes, she is, one

example is when places like

Australia, for example, were

served bills for the Queen's

assent, the first rule is you

never give formal advice,

informal advice, if the Queen

doesn't like that informal

advice it's dealt with at

that stage. It never gets to

the point of her rejecting

formal advice there is always

this notion000 shalt not embarrass the Queen, you

don't want to ask her to do

something she doesn't want to

do. In 1979 when Neville

wran wanted to abolish the

Privy Council, he passed the

bill through the parliament,

it got by part son support,

the Queen says if this bill

comes to me for Royal assent

I'm going to refuse assent to

it. It was hidden in the Governor's desk drawer and

never sent to her, the

Government backs down when

the Queen suggests she

doesn't want to accept

something the Government

wants to do. You said it's hard to know what does and

doesn't go on, the privacy

around these things is

extraordinary. That example

you have given there is that

indicative of the sorts of

things the Queen might be

inclined to ignore or

disagree with advice on, when

it effects, I guess, her actual constitutional role

and her power? That's right,

certainly in relation to

Australia, when the Queen did

intervene, and become

particularly involved it was

where powers and changes

affected her own power she

was particularly interested. What would be very

interesting to see, however,

is how she responds in the

United Kingdom when she's far

more involved in the

political and constitutional

system. Does she ever influence bills or suggest to governments not to go ahead

with bills. There is a rule

in the United Kingdom most

people aren't aware of any

bills that affects the

Queen's powers, prog tiffs and financial interests has

to get the Queen's approval

before it even is introduced

into parliament. There is a

stage there at which she can

deal with things, raise concerns and influence government well before it

ever gets to the point of

having to give formal Royal

assent to it. There is a

vast amount of possibility

there for her to influence

and control events, but the

difficulty is the UK laws ban

anyone through Freedom of

Information, or through

archives or any other

legislation ban anyone from

getting that information as

to how she exercises that

role. Even, like, cabinet

records which we do get after

30 years you don't get that

when it comes to the Queen,

they remain private. Based on what little information

there is the monkey is supposed to be above

politics, is it fair to say

the Queen is genuinely

nonpartisan, does she have

political leanings one way or

the other? I'm guessing she

does and doesn't say,

obviously she has got on well

with her Prime Ministers from

time to time, that's never

been a cause of difficulty.

You get the impression from

Ministers who a eventually

have spoken she does have

political views on particular subjects, and she's not

afraid about expressing them

or at least asking questions

and through merely asking a

question about well what is

the Government going to do

about X, that's probably

enough to influence most

politicians, I suspect to pay

a fair deal of attention to

X. I think it probably

would. Professor anne

Toomey, interesting stuff,

thanks for joining us.

You're welcome. Join us for

live coverage of the beacon

lighting which is happening outside parliament house, the

Prime Minister and the

opposition leader will be

there, bae cons lit in all

Commonwealth countries at the

same time tonight our time,

that will happen during the

Paul Murray show. We are out

of time for PM Agenda. Hope

to see you next time. I'm

David Speers, thanks for your company.

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