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Sky News On The Hour 4pm -

View in ParlView

(generated from captions) captioned by Ai-Media This program will be live

Delivering unrivalled live

coverage, this is Sky News - Australia's news channel.

Hello welcome to

Contrarians I am Peter van

Onselen. Coming up the panel

and I will be taking a look

at the various issues of the

week, including the run for

the doors of Parliament House

by Manager of Opposition Business and Tony Abbott, and

we will be looking at

Plibergate whether the

comments and smart aleck natured descriptions of Tony

Abbott in Ted Baillieu's

office is something we should

be -- in Tanya Plibersek's

office is something that is

sat year. The nation's lowest

paid workers have won a pay

rise of over $17 a week, the

decision is more than employers wanted to pay but

demanding, neither side is it is less than unions are

happy with the outcome. David

Speers takes a look at

today's decision and all the reaction. Hardly a kings can

some but an increase

nonetheless for the nation's

lowest paid. The minimum wage

will rise by 2.9%, $17.10 a

week. To $604.40. The

industrial umpire says this

strikes the right balance in

an uncertain economic climate. While the economic

outlook remains sound, a

number of considerations give

rise to some caution. Unions

wanted an increase of $26 ray

week, employers argued for a

rise of only $9.40. Neither

were impressed with the

outcome. Anything less than

$26 is now seeing the

widening gap that's occurred and that's why we are

extremely disappointed on the $17 decision that's been

handed down today, leaving

the most vulnerable worker in

our society behind. We are

concerned this will place undue pressure on the most

vulnerable parts of the economy. The Government and Opposition were happier with

the decision. We think the

announcement of an extra

approximately $900 per year

for low paid workers is a

vote of confidence in the

Australian economy. I

certainly don't begrudge

people a pay rise, I particularly don't begrudge

the low paid workers of

Australia a pay rise because

let's face it, they are about

to be hit with a carbon tax.

And they will need all the

help they can get. But this

increase isn't aimed at

compensating for the carbon tax, according to Fair Work Australia. We should not

provide any additional

assistance to compensate for

the anticipated price effects

introduction of a price on associated with the

carbon. Compensation has

already been provided through

tax cuts and transfer

payments, and further

adjustments would amount to compensation by minimum wage

double dipping. The

industrial umpire also highlighted real concerns

over the global economy. The

global risks continue, most

notably those associated with

continuing sovereign debt

problems in Europe. Those

debt problems are also being

watched intensely by Treasury

officials here in Canberra.

Treasury boss, Martin park

inson has warned if there is

another global shock, well

the promised surplus could be

at risk. Put simply, in the

event of a slow down, tax

revenue would fall, and a

number of people are

unemployed rise, unemployment

benefits go out, the deficit

widens. You don't go out and

try and close that. The

Opposition Leader pounced on

that. Having promised a

surplus, it now looks like

they are about to abandon

that commitment. But what

would be Coalition do in the

event of another global

shock? Well I accept that in

a crisis the so-called

automatic stabilisers will

operate to change the overall

fiscal position. That, says

the Government, means Tony

deficit. Abbott would go into

The Opposition says Australians fighting in Afghanistan are being

compromise ed by the defence Budget. Shadow Defence

Minister, David Johnston says

the Government needs to make tough decisions starting with

what he calls the un

sustainable figure of 22,000 civilians currently managing

59,000 military personnel. Ms

Gillard and Mr Swan keep

telling us we have one of the

best economies in the world.

It's clear that this economy apparently under Labor cannot

afford for us to defend

serious problem for all ourselves. That is a very

Australians. Particularly

while we have men and women

on the front line in Afghanistan fighting. Mr Johnston says that the

increase the defence budget Coalition will look to

if they come to power.

Melbourne police have

confirmed three bodies have

now been recovered from a

mysterious house fire in

Clayton South in the city's

south-east today. Neighbours

say they used axes to try to

gain entry into the home as flames engulfed the property. Neighbours heard

the sounds of hammering and

then screams as flames rip ud

through the roof. My daughter

woke us up she heard a bang,

like a noise and she gets smoke. So, she came in and

said there is a house on

fire. Smoke come out

everywhere from the front of

the house fire, I can see

flames on the backside but

smoke come out from the front

door windows. A family of

four lived at the house, a

mother, fortand their two

young sons aged 5 and 89 but

police have now confirmed the

bodies -- but police have

confirmed bodies of two

children and an adult have

been found in the back of the property. But the cause is

still unknown. We are not

sure what's occurred we have

a number of deceased in the

house so we have got to piece the jigsaw

together. Detectives are

focusing on a note that was

left on top of the car in the

driveway and are looking to the possibility of suspicious

activity. It is a tragedy, it

is shocking and it is sad for

two little ones. The two

young boys attended a local

school in the area, the

principal says the teachers and classmates are shocked by

the tragedy.. The boys are

love I boys, the children

children this morning said said -- lovely boys, the

they remember their smiles and reflected this morning on

them and they one of the big

things that came about is the

generosity and smiles. Crime scene detectives and

explosive experts are at the

home while police try to make

contact with the father who is believed to be travelling

in southern India. Neighbours say they did everything they could as

they waited for fire crews to

arrive including picking up

an axe and smashing their way

through security roller

doors. They got it to go in

and got very heavy smoke

coming up through the windows

and door, they have managed

to go in you know. This is gut wrenching for the emergency services turning up

and also for the members of

the public that live near the

premises. It's a tragedy,

particularly involving yuveng

children. The core nowhere

-- young children. The coroner is now

investigating. Opposition Leader Aung San Suu Kyi has

addressed the World Economic

Forum in bangcock during her

first overseas trip in 24

years she visited migrant

workers in Thailand telling

them she will be fighting to improve economic conditions

so that they could finally

return home. It comes less

than two years after Aung San

Suu Kyi was released from 15

years under house arrest. We

just want to improve the

state of Burma. That's what

we mean when we say

reform. We do not mean the

kind of reforms that may

benefit any particular

individual or group or

organisation. But the kind of

reforms that will mean an improvement for our peoples

in general. Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has

become a grandfather for the

first time. His daughter,

Jessica Rudd and her husband

Albert Tse have announced the

birth of their daughter.

Josephine was born yesterday

but Mr Rudd announced her arrival today by

Twitter. There is something

special in holding the

bunding of joy in your arms

for the first time, it has

been a while, our youngest is

18. That's right and very

tall. But it was a delight

and she is a beautiful little

girl. And when I went into

see Jess, she said I would

like you to meet Josephine

Therese and we got very

teary. It's very nice. Kevin

wasn't a possibility. Filmed by himself the Queen

has kept them underwraps for

decades but today home movies

of a young Prince Charles

have been publicly released

ahead of the Diamond Jubilee celebrations. I Charles

Prince of Wales do become

your leej man of life and

limb. He may have been just

three years old when his mother became queen but Prince Charles can recall

memories and events public

and private throughout the 60

year rein of the woman he

called Mama. 1952, wasn't

it? Using news reels and

never before seen home

movies, like this one filmed

in ball morale in 1952, the

-- Balmoral in 1952 the hour

long tell advised tribute reflects a special bond

between mother and eldest

son. The Crown agony by then, it is incredibly heavy.

That's why you know Mama had

to practice so much wearing

it and, you had to. I

remember Mama coming up, we

were being bathed as children

wearing the Crown, it was

quite funny, for practising.

That's a vivid memory, I must

say. We used to sometimes go

down in the winter as well,

but this is so much... This footage of Charles and

princess Anne was filmed by

the Queen in Norfolk in



The Queen has provided an

amazing record of devotion and dedication and

commitment. Which is why

Prince Charles has been out

and about to ensure his mother's jubilee celebrations

go without a hitch. We have been thinking about what can

go wrong for the last week.

And I have been thinking

about you. The The Diamond

Jubilee I think gives us a

chance to celebrate with pride all that the queen

means to us. Both as a

nation and indeed as one of

her children. Sky News and

APAC will have complete live coverage of the Diamond

Jubilee celebrations over the

coming days. Sky News

national will take you live

to the UK for all the key

events as the Queen marks her

60 $year on the throne. It

will become the Diamond

Jubilee channel bringing you

continuous live coverage from

London complete live coverage

here on Sky News national,

and APAC channel 648. Time for a quick check on the weather:

Peter I will be back with an update later in the

show. I tell you what I won't

be moving a second away from

my television for the Diamond

Jubilee celebrations quite an

opportunity there, endless

fun on the TV set. You are watching Contrarians we will

be taking a break, when we

come back the panel and my rant.

Hello welcome to the

Contrarians this is the only

show on Sky or anywhere else

we truly involve you the

viewers by reading out your Tweets and e-mails.

Well, well, Tony Abbott and Christopher Pyne's mad

dash to get out of the parliament so they wouldn't

be voting with Craig Thomson,

reminded me of Forrest Gump's

film. It was odd scenes, I

understand obviously their

point they want to be true to

their word they want to make

sure they don't accept the

vote of Craig Thomson, that

explains one of them dashing

out of the parliament because

then they are effectively pairing Craig Thomson's vote

once they realised late,

probably too late, the whip,

Warren Entch should take

closer notice what's going on

in the parliament, once they noticed Craig Thomson was

doing what is doing, fine,

why were we in a situation

where there was more than one

persons trying to dash out of

the parliament it makes no sense, why did the Liberal

Party put themselves in a

position where Tony Abbott,

who wants to be Prime

Minister, looked like he is

more interested in running

triathlons than becoming

Prime Minister. Why did we

see the scenes which has seen

parliament, yet again, it has

to be said a fault on all

sides parodied around the

world with Benny Hill music

no less in the background as

these scenes unfold. It's a

minor issue but at the end of

the day it is unnecessary,

the Opposition as long as

they lay down and hold their

breath for the next 18 months

will win the next election

but it scenes of stupidity

like this where they go on

and accuse the government of

being involved in some sort

of scam to make this happen,

I don't believe that for a

second, Anthony Albanese was

in the parliament when the

gag motion with Jobe was

involved, he was not -- with

Joe Hockey, he was not

involved in any way shape or

form. He is not a liar and at

the end of the day I think

this was a Craig Thomson

decision, whatever you make

of that, but why does the

Opposition bother to get

itself into such a

speculative scene like this,

Pyne wants to run out of the

building, fine, Tony Abbott

can we have one place in the

country where he doesn't run?

See what the panel think,

Greg O'Mahoney, Tim Wilson,

works for the IPA that

accepts tobacco sponsorships and Dee Madigan, I have a

bone to pick with you, your

tweet page, whatever you call

it says ad chick, Gruen

transfer pannist regular on

the 'Pe prshtion ritt

Report'. Hello. I will fix that up immediately. Welcome

to the program. Regularly

welcome back to the program.

Let's start with the panel's

thoughts on run Abbott, run,

Tim Wilson you have long been

an add mirror of Tony Abbott

what's your view, do you

think it is unnecessary or do

you think it was was what it

was.. I think it came across

as juvenile on the part of

Tony Abbott, I don't see why

he couldn't have gotten up

and given a very clear speech

had is speak up we don't

accept his vote, therefore I would like to abstain from

the voting or have one of my members abstain from the

voting and it would come

across as dignified and he

would have been able to make

a clear point and reinforce

his existing position whereas

running looked juvenile and

did nothing for himself or

parliament. Craig Thomson

pulled a stunt in my view and it was a clever one and he

got away with it because Tony

Abbott responded. The question was Labor involved

and I agree with what Pete

said. But shocking spectacle

and I'm sure he regrets it,

the people saying it is the worst, do you think it has been the worst day of his

leadership -- I think it is

overstating it. Angel of

Wrath said nice rant but as

you said miner incident. Fast

Puss said pathetic intro,

give you five minutes before

I switch the rubbish off P do

me a favour and switch off

now. I think the polls that

came out did spook Abbott and

I think... You reckon being

that far in front was a

problem? The fact his preferred Prime Minister

thing wasn't and I think. He

is always down in the dumps

on the Prime Minister

ratings. We are weeks away

from the carbon tax he is still struggling, he should

be well ahead now, they have

had Thomson and everything

and he's still behind. I

think he is panicking. Do

you think it might have been

serious. It doesn't matter,

you agree with this, as long

as the Liberal Party lead on

the two party vote and the

primary vote by extension of

that then Abbott is fine,

where I think Abbott will

panic is if Labor find away

to get above on the two party

vote. It will not happen with

Julia Gillard but maybe with

Kevin Rudd. I'm not sure

that's entirely true, Labor

was at the bottom and they

can only go up and once the

carbon tax is in and the

polls start to realign

themselves and they will the Liberal Party will start to

look at Tony Abbott as

perhaps a problem and his leadership will be in

doubt. That's a broken record for ages. Once the carbon tax

is going to come into place

people will open up the

electricity bills and see the

price increase and will not

be overly happy. The Liberal

Party will look at Tony

Abbott, they should have used that Gina Rinehart migrant

deal, they should have

absolutely wiped Labor with

that last week and they

handled it so badly because

Tony Abbott does the small

strategy, instead of saying

you are fork the workers you

are saying you are against

the miners and he goes into

the horrible who said who to

what kind of thing and it

doesn't cut through. We will

get to the carbon tax,

important issue it is, Tim

your tie clashes with your

shirt, a Tweet says, and I

was thinking that before we

went on air. I quite like the combination but that's

fine. I think Tim is going

dancing after the show. I

don't have glitter on my face

this week, there you go, we

have all got it out of our system. Back to the carbon

tax and I will not let

distract us Tim. Greg what do

you think about this, do you

buy the line once the carbon

tax comes in voters will take

the view it is not as bad as

Abbott has been saying and

therefore he will rise in the

polls or do you take the view at the end of the day

introducing the tax, oversold

for how harsh it will be by

the Opposition is not a

popular thing. I think it is

getting more dangerous, the

more the economy slows the

more China slows you hear

talk of four interest rate

cuts before the end of the

year the carbon tax looks

harder and harder for the

government to justify and

don't take my word for it I

think Labor doesn't believe it will go down well whether

it comes in they will be

proudly be declaring we are

on the cusp on this taxation

reform, they know it is the

tax of timeser plenty that

isn't going to work. Do they

have to be careful how much

they crow about it and how.

Things will change because it

is possible with new

leadership the price gets

dumped by Kevin Rudd. If they do that they are delusional.

They have missed the point

for most people the issue

isn't actually the impact of

the tax the issues around how

it was introduced in the

first place and the election

and that's why I don't think

there will be massive rise,

even if you cut the carbon

tax from $23 to $10, my

electricity bill has gone up

this much, meanwhile Julia

Gillard or Kevin Rudd still lied. The problem is whether

this lie is insurmountable or not that's the issue for

Labor. At some point will the electorate forgive her or not

and I reckon they will give

her at least a couple of months after the carbon tax

to see... No, 12 months ago

they stopped forgiving her

but the issue, I agree with

you insofar as I don't think

it is insur moufrnltable for

Labor, for me the last week

or two with the antics and

change of setting from the primary vote going from 27 a

month ago to 32 now, there is

signs of life for Labor, even

if brand Gillard is dead,

they have got to get on with

bringing Kevin Rudd back. You

may not like him Labor

caucus, who does quite

frankly but at the end of the

day he is the chance, he is

Labor's chance of winning the

next election, maybe they are

fearful he will win the next

election then they get him as

PM for another three years. That's Liberal point

as well they want to win the election but then they know

they have Tony Abbott in

charge, same problem. That's

true, for some not all. What

are you hearing two weeks on

the show you and Troy were

saying you had been speaking

to people in Labor and it was

a fait accompli. I don't

think that, what I think is

happening they are going

through that buyers remorse,

they have brought Gillard in

it hasn't worked out, what do

we do about it. The other

thing is they quite like her,

at the end of the day Gillard

is a personable person, whereas Kevin Rudd is

anything but. Behind the

scenes. The polls can't

stand her and she speaks to

the public like they have a

learning disability. If you take... If you take all the

aspects of governing out of

the equasion she hasn't done

a bad job. Take all the

communications areas out, the economy, hospital reform, education and there is plenty

of things she has done well,

it just hasn't cut through to

the public. I find that extraordinary, if you go

through pokies reform, the

back down, how is that anything other than

embarrassing? What she did on

the carbon tax, how is that,

she took a fire and she made

it 10 times bigger. If you

look at the mining tax, the

way they just, in the course

of negotiations she

completely -- backed down in

the face of mining

pressure. What they have

successfully legislated is

the stuff the public hates

and what she works so heavily

against them. If she achieved

some things like gaming

reform that is very popular

with the public opinion,

where is the good

governing. If you look at the

economy there is proof of

good governing, the stimulus

package, that's proof and

hospital reform nation wide

is proof, there is plenty of

evidence. I want to agree

with you because I... Just

do. I editorialised in

favour of Gillard winning the

last election, I wanted her

to be successful but I don't

think she has been, the

reforms she's embarked on

have been piecemeal or

minimal. The one big reform is the tax reform with the

carbon tax but she had to

break her promise in a sense

to do it or at least she

admitted she broke her

promise, she probably should

have stuck to her guns and

said this is an emissions

trading scheme with a fixed

price but she didn't, she admitted it was a carbon

tax. It's a minority

government, a different way

of having to do things. The

day she took over the

leadership said three issues

mining tax, carbon tax and

refugees they are my three

big ticket items. On the

carbon tax we have talked

about it, it is indefenceable

the way she has waxed and

waned. It has come in. She

didn't negotiate the mix as

all. Miners are happy and on

refugee we have all the solution. There is some

revenue there. And refugees.

The Malaysian Solution,

followed by, which was

preceded by the East Timor

solution, the Manu island, a

debacle We are bringing in a

segment every week in the

third part of the show from

next week called tell us

something nice about the

Gillard Government so we will

have a specific segment where

we can try to do that, as a

preamble Tim Wilson you seem

like a person that is crowing

about this government, do it

now. Tell us something nice

and positive about the Gillard Government. Gee

that's a tough one.

Seriously. Seriously I'm trying to think about

something. Pass. What did

they pass? No I mean pass as

in move it on, the only thing

I can think of the things

they dumped, I agree with

when they dumped the Malaysian Solution. They

didn't do that. What about

pokies reform? No, I don't

support the pokies reform and

they dumped that as well. You

are happy about the dumping

of the pokies reform? I don't think it was good public policy. What about Tony

Abbott on the pokies reform,

at the end of the day Julia

Gillard may not have got what

Andrew Wilkie wanted and he's upset about that and made

that clear to the nation, and

I don't blame him quite

frankly but at the end of the

day at least she is still try

for some pokies reform. Tony Abbott is opposed even to

that. I find it unbelievable

that is his position but I

think Tim supports that. What's that. Tony Abbott backing up from any

gaming reform at all. I

actually think his position

on the on-line gaming reform

he announced yesterday is

absurd. I don't understand

why he's actually against

harmenising what's going on

on line versus what is on the

phone. It is ridiculous. You should have consistent

systems. You are pro liberalisation of

gambling. Yes, I am of most

things. It doesn't effect you

that position at all there is

400,000 problem gamblers in

Australia, $1

billion. Firstly I have never

seen this $400,000 figure but

I think that people have to exercise a level of responsibility over their

lives and I don't think we

promote that by creating a culture where government takes responsibility away from people and doesn't

accept... I jump in there

and simply make the point

individual responsibility can

also be made easier if you

don't have a taxation arm of

government that is regressive

like poker machines in the

first place, we will take a commercial break, love to

give you a right of reply you

are watching the Contrarians we will be back in a moment.

Welcome back you are

watching the Contrarians I am

joined by Dr Greg O'Mahoney,

Mr Tim Wilson, and Dee

Madigan, now, there has been

a whole range of different

Tweets coming in including

from a bloke I told to switch

off his channel and head off,

he said he is sticking with

us for the long haul. It is

nice to know. A lot of tweets

have different people has to

be said complain being the

clash of Tim's tie and shirt. I will take the tie off. Definitely the tie

rather than the shirt. I Will

take it off. And the suit

jacket as well. I think

that's harsh. It is not much

of a suit jacket. From my

producers as well in relation

to Tim's problems but also a

range of tweets coming in

about the notion of doing a

segment on the positivity of the Gillard Government, what

we can say, serious concerns on twitter it could be blank

air time there. So this is

the tenure of what's coming

through, what is our view,

let's pick a policy issue for

a moment. Tim Wilson you were

saying before the minimum

wage has been increased were

you personally quite happy

about that. What is your

view? Did it go up by too

much, is it the right

balance, it seems like

employers and employees are unhappy. That's what always happen, the system aam

bit. Can I get to you do up

one of the buttons. Is there

anything else you like me to

do Peter. The deliver is Ambered so both are designed

to be unhappy and in the end

they will complain about the

process and in theory working

people are supposed to get

things better, get the right

outcome. $17 a week, it is

seems like a reasonable

amount I think. Ahead of the

carbon tax coming in. Leave

that alone. This is on top of the carbon tax compensation, so they will be

over, over compensated now is

that the claim. That's not a

bad way to start. I guess

there is no fears of the

inflation impact on this

given the way the global economy is heading at the

moment, is that fair? Yes and

also because it is targeting

the stattum of people it is

targeting will not move the needle in terms of

intoetsz That's the devil's

advocate to this, it is hard

to feel too sorry for

business leaders but at the

end of day businesses are

facing tougher times curtesy

of the global outlook. Small

business, this will not

impact on Gina Rinehart or

Twiggy Forest, Paul Howes

doesn't like this week, it

will be small businesses who

will be hit by the increase

in the cost and they will be

the most likely people, down

turn also not be able to ride

out the cost. I completely

disagree what Dee said before about the government looking

forward to the tax, right now

every day, pretty much or

every second day a company is

going to the wall. We saw

Hastie earlier this week,

Fitness First, announced it

is cutting all its gyms

Australia-wide. You need to

get to the gym more often. I

will do what I can, it will

be difficult, but quite

seriously getting Abbott, for

a year any bad corporate news

Abbott has cited the carbon

tax for it. It is bad for the government because it is

an easy story to tell. We

have had a tweet come in from

Big Billy Three, saying Tim

Wilson is a Labor stooge and

listen sport has said what a

Liberal fool is Tim Wilson, I reckon you two need to get

together and have your own

private twitter exchange and

work it out. I think he's a

Green. I am wearing a red

shirt today and a blue

jacket. Don't forus so much

on your appearance -- focus

on your appearance too much.

We have talked about minimum

wage, I want to get to

something that's caused interesting controversy,

Tanya Plibersek in a moment

what she say s is sat year

within her office has mocked

up -- satire in her office

has mocked up signs of Tony

Abbott selling herself, right

wingers have said is a

disgrace, lefties have said

get your act together. It is

satire. Note not ladies make

me a sand. That was sitting

in Tanya Plibersek's office.

The second one, I am

threatened by boats and gays,

gays on boats with my worst nightmare. Dee Madigan what's

your view on this? Is that

satire that's OK. I think it

is confect ed outrage on his

part, this say man who stood

next to signs saying burn the

witch, at that rally, I don't

believe he is offended even

slightly by it, it is

rubbish. I think in political

skin, you will not be

offended by it but it shows the simplicity of the

attitude of the ALP towards

dealing with Tony Abbott, it

is about how they constantly

think he can be polarised into this position and

character tour. They weren't

meant for public case, they

were meant for mockery around

Tanya Plibersek's office. Those were made by

an ALP website that was set

up so you can design those

types of sign, they have been

floating around Facebook for

ages so the fact someone

printed them out six months

ago and chuck ed them in her

office is no big deal, it

shows simplicity of their attitude towards Tony Abbott

and are not treating him as a serious and credible threat

which has been a big part of

their strategy to this

day. People on both sides of

the political fence do this

all day on Twitter and

YouTube. It is fun It is

funny when, you hear Tony

Abbott speak about gay

marriage it is incredibly awkward. It is almost like he

is saying I have no problem

with gay people, I sat next

to a gay guy on a bus and he

was lovely. He doesn't drink

fruit juice because it has

empty carbs. The big issues

on the Contrarians. So the

carbon tax, comes in in July,

Dee you made that point. Sky will not fall N we will all

be OK. You never know, we

have been reading Twitter it could be a concerning event.

At the end of the day, when

it happens, what happens if

the polling numbers stay bad

for the government? Because,

it is fair and Tim made this

sort of comment today on the

show when you talked about it as perhaps been a turn moment, there have been a lot

of turn moments discussed by people trying to defend this

government and this Prime

Minister and they haven't

eventuated at this step. If

they happen or rather if they

don't happen with the carbon

tax, what happens next is Gillard coming to more

pressure then? It depends why

the reasons are the numbers

aren't change f the numbers aren't changing because people genuinely still hate

the carbon tax, then it is a

carbon tax issue. If they don't hate the carbon tax

still can't get over the

Gillard lie, then it is a

leadership issue. So... a It

is a leadership issue even if it is the carbon tax because

it will take a new leader to

do something about that? Yes,

but it's about the carbon tax, whereas if it's about

the lie, the carbon tax can

stay. That's what I'm

saying. How will he face the

lie, the fact it comes in. Do

you think people might

forget? It may and it may not

but what I'm saying if the

numbers don't move and the reasons aren't because of the carbon tax, but they still

can't get over the fact she

lied, then it is purely a

leadership issue rather than

a carbon tax itself. Kevin

Rudd start amassing numbers

with that situation, where he

gets at the moment they are

playing this silent game

underneath the surface with

the occasional News Ltd

journalists going go Kevin. Give him a break his daughter had a baby

today. They start to amass

numbers purnlly in a way they

are not -- publicly. She needs to step aside with some level of agreement I would

have thought, or else it is messy. He has to show

strength in order to make it

happen, she needs to step

down for her own dignity as much as anything else but it

will not happen by accident,

he will have to force it a bit. How do you think the

decision on the mining, Paul

Howes has been speaking about

Gillard a little bit this week. The Gina Rinehart

situation with Roy Hill. That

was an interesting. You think

about the unions put her in

installed her, Paul Howes

spoke about Gillard earlier this week in the sort of way

he often speaks about Abbott,

you have got to be pretty careful of the people who

made you king. This is where

she got herself into a bind,

on the one hand she was

telling union representatives

she was furious with minister

Bowen's decision yet she gave

him and minister Ferguson the

green light to go down that

path. This is where Liberals

really should have creamed

Labor on it and didn't. They... Why didn't they. Probably because they

liked the decision. No

because Labor is finally

getting some sort of

narrative Labor is for the

workers and against the

miners and instead of Liberal

attacking sort of that on

that narrative saying look

you are saying this and doing this, instead of doing that

they are going, well Gillard

knew or she didn't know, Bowen said this and who knew

and they started doing this

conspiracy theory that

doesn't cut through now

because people are over

it. How can they attack them

on a policy that they

passionately believe in. I

think it is a tricky

ground. I do agree with this

outcome recommended by the Gillard Government So, you

can chuck that in the segment

next week. What are you

talking about? About the

migration agreement, I think

the Gillard Government did

the right thing on that. Why

would we replay you next

week? I am saying - anyway

move on. Tweets are none too

impressed about this concept that the Labor Party can get

away with those signs that we

showed up on screen because the view is that the Liberal

Party if it did the equivalent to Labor wouldn't get away with it. I think

that is right, I think the

left would get outraged at the Liberal Party and I think

that the left can get away

with that and a way that the

right couldn't, the same way

that the right can get away

with not really having much

of an economic blue print which the which the left

couldn't if they are in

opposition. There are double

standards. There is confected

outrage from both

sides. Abbott must have the thicker skin in Australia and

the idea he is losing sleep

at night over a couple of

posters. Did he say that He had words to the fact

something about you find it offensive and I thought no

you don't. This is part of the problem is Tanya

Plibersek is one of those

people who is Contrarians

constantly capable of

feigningout rage when there

is a claim of sexism and if

she or her colleague is in a

similar position and mocked

she goes silent. I think

there is difference. The Meow

comment. It was an outrageous

comment I agree. What's the

difference? There is a level

of sort of,... Something being a homophobe and

ratest. She hasn't had a

clans to get it in. Tony

Abbott -- chance to get it in. Tony Abbott isn't in

favour of gay marriage, he

isn't in favour of refugees

coming over here. Like Julia

Gillard. Yeah, I'm not happy

with that gay marriage

position. But nonetheless

there is truth this that sort

of thing whereas the sexism

thing is quite different and

serious. Tim makes a very

good point, they are smashing

Abbott in that satirical post

which I don't find offensive

I find it funny they are

smashing him about the

attitude on gay marriage and

refugees, this is his Prime

Minister that advocated the

Malaysian Solution and said

she is opposed to gay

marriage. What the? Malaysian Solution flew in

the face of just about

everything she said on that

issue for a decade. And

people talk about the lie on

the carbon tax. I find her

position on refugees beyond belief. I know what your

response to that Dee it's a fair - Tanya Plibersek can

sit there in her office and

her staff can have fun at

Abbott's expense and I will

laugh along with you but I'm laughing at the Prime

Minister because she is in

the same debacle boat on

that, pardon the pun she is advocating the Malaysian Solution which is every bit

as bad as Nauru and some ways

worse and she is opposed to gay marriage des peat being

the leader of a supposed

progressive party and defying

the will large chunks of that

party. The reason it is kind

of OK, humour kind of makes

things OK we are more

forgiving but you make a very

good point. There is

certainly a little bit of a

double standard there no two

ways about it. Maybe they can

print posters with Gillard on

them. The smart arse sandwich

comment, tend of the day what

is Tim doing. Into move on to

a break, are you watching the

Contrarians we will take a commercial break.

Welcome back, you are

watching the Contrarians I am

joined by Tim Wilson Greg

O'Mahoney and Dee Madigan.

There has been an e-mail come

in that says this Dee

Gardener, new name, is clearly delusional or working

for Bruce Hawker, suggesting

they are one and the same

thing. That's from Rocky

Wood. I know Bruce, I'm not

actually working for him. I

have never worked for

Bruce. Do you think he is synonymous with

delusion? Bruce, I wouldn't

say that. He doesn't work

for Hawker Britain anymore?

No he has his own company I

believe. How can you still

have a company called Hawker

Britain when one of the key

elements is off on his

own. Happens all the time in advertising. What about when

they tank. I think they are

doing alright. Maybe post the whole Kevin Rudd thing

because Bruce Hawker was

ostracized from the team as

far as I know. What about

Rudd taking over the

leadership sometime soon,

maybe later this year and then a snap election

called. I reckon if he does take it over that's the best

way to do it because the

honeymoon period will be

short. Take advantage of the

bounce but... I'm not, that's

the conventional wisdom. Not

suggesting you guys are, but

my point is that I actually

think that there will be panic in the Liberal Party

now, as long as Kevin Rudd

comes back and runs a

competent show, big question mark, then I actually think

that the panic that could set in over time in the Liberal

Party is such that it might

be worth his while to hold it

together but it could be

taken out of his hands at the

end of the day independents

or somebody force a

by-election, one of

disaffected ministers said he

was a psycho for example, may

not choose to serve under

him. Not necessarily the next

choice, I am not as convinced

as you. Craig Thomson. Yeah,

Kevin above Craig. You think

Bill? Bill Shorten, no, I

look - I would go Wayne Swan

and I will tell you why,

because I know - I knew you

would go this. It is because, I said this last

time, if Labor's strong point

is the economy, which it is,

he's the link and so in terms

of markets and also he's really boring and that's not

a bad thing t is kind of

stability. It's a rubbish

narrative but the narrative the Government has generally

managed to get up it is they

saved Australia during the global financial crisis when

Kevin Rudd was in charge. No

Wayne Swan was the Treasurer

and also... What about Ken leader Wayne Swan Treasurer then you have the

outcome. The thing is you

could not have them working

together. It wouldn't be like

Keating and Howard, that's

different, the vit

reole. Wayne Swan, he in one

of the most disgraceful acts by a deputy Prime Minister in

the history of this country,

has in an incredibly

unbecoming way released a

clearly unup set and heated

measures -- upset and heated

message to the media very

soon after Kevin Rudd has

announced he is resigning as

Foreign Minister, he hasn't

even said he is challenging the Prime Minister, Simon Crean came out and smashed

him and he said I can't

tolerate that because the PM

is not defending me and Wayne

Swan putting out a vitriolic

spewing vile release where he talks about Kevin Rudd has

never had Labor values and so

on and so forth. Come on. The

judgment why he will never be

leader for starters, the idea of bringing Wayne Swan back

is political insanity. You mean Kevin Rudd? Wayne

Swan. Make him leader? That

is crazy. You are close to

Wayne Swan aren't you? I

have never met the man, in a marketing point of view I think he will be the

best... Wayne Swan? No. You

are joking aren't you? He is the only one managed to get

this narrative up for Labor

getting a fair go for people

in the class warfare. It is

the Contrarians, so. I think

he's the only one who has

actually started to get that

through and I think that's

pulling the polls up. You know when Wayne Swan comes on

television ratings plummet. I

know I have heard the man talk, communication is not

his strong point. Think he's

on the record saying he

doesn't feel comfortable. OK

as long as he doesn't break a

glass. You will look at John

Howard for that. He was an

excellent public speaker. He

got better, but he was boring. Firstly Wayne Swan

doesn't have time to get

better, and Howard at least

had dimension of re

reassurance. I just think

that's a better option than

Shorten. I think whoever

takes over this role will

need the gift of the gab, assuming there is a new

leader in a way we have never

seen, there is so much to explain, there is so much to

talk about, the idea of

giving to a man who can't

handle public speaking. The

policy agenda they will

run... The different is what

they don't need, people are

so sick of spin in a sense

the fact that he can't, that

he is so sort of straightforward. Prosecuting

policies explaining why

policies make sense. Someone

else can write speeches,

that's not a hard thing.

Managing the economy is a

hard thin. All Wayne Swan can

do is spin h they will get

the talking notes he will

follow the brief, he's not as

bad as he was years ago where

he stood there and fumbled

over his notes for 45 seconds

can you look that up on

YouTube, that's true he's not

that but at the end of the

day how will he deal with questioning coming from far

and wide? Slowly and

sensibly. Slowly I agree. I hope Julia Gillard stays in

there and I hope she goes to

the next election but from a marketing point of view

that's who I think if you

have to sell someone, don't

forget we think Wayne Swan is

all that thing, Joe Public

doesn't know jack shit about politicians. It is that kind

of contempt for the average

voter that gets Labor in trouble. It is not contempt

and good on them in a way, we

spend far too much time naval

gazing on politicians. The only thing I give you credibility about this

argument Wayne Swan is the

leader one time where Gillard

didn't do too badly is when

she shut up. She went, low

key and actually they didn't

do too badly because they

didn't give Abbott a reason

to have oxygen. It was

only a week. Julia Gillard's numbers go up when she's out

of the country. That's the

truth. A tweet, slight lit

vulgar but OK for television

I would rather, this from Jen

Adcock to name her I would

rather dive head first into

my own vomit than have Wayne

Swan as Prime Minister. But

I'm guessing she is not voting Labor anyway, you know. Certainly not if Wayne Swan's leader. You know. Amazing, I think one of the great myths of this

government, if it is

remembered at all will be the

idea that Wayne Swan somehow

was just an economic

juggernaut and presided over

just an extraordinary... How

do you think we have this

great economy, we have got -

OK you will say look at the world wide stage, yes things

in the world are not looking

good but Australia is still

sitting pretty. You think he

had nothing to do with it. Do you think the government runs commit rather than the 22 million people making decisions every day about

what they want to do

investment decisions? It is

an absurd proposition., we had the stimulus pack impraj

we will be in a very

different place. That's crap. Who do you think was

the Treasurer at the

time. According to Ken Henry

that had Rudd over it all Wayne Swan was a passenger let's be

honest. I'm not sure that's

entirely true. The idea of

the stimulus certainly

comparison to things like cutting interest rates where

we had flexibility the

Reserve Bank had flexibility,

had much bigger impact on consumer spending than

anything like the stimulus

packages is a narrative run

by the government, spin and lines. Look at the countries that did an austerity package

and look where they are

compared to us. They did

better, Sweden actually did

an austerity package and cut

taxes. And did better. A

country like the US, the UK. I haven't heard anything

I am continuing to just be

aghast at the prospect of

Wayne Swan becoming Prime

Minister. If you look at the

US and UK, they spent massive

amounts of money on stimulus packages it did nothing

except increase the levels of debt. When they go back into

a period where they have to

actually go through another period of austerity because there is an economic down

turn, in part because of all

this money they have

spent. No, come on. This is

crazy stuff. They had a

banking system that was absurd. You can't blame the

stimulus package. You keep spending so if we didn't send

people $9 0 cheques, not

$9,000 cheques, why not do it all the time. Stupid economics, it is

childish. Why don't we bury

money on the outskirts of

Sydney and people can dig it

up. Like an Easter egg

hunt. That sounds like a

powerful idea. Let's raise

the tone and go overseas and

look parkly at what Tim was

looking at as he was going

red in the face. What's going

on in Europe? And the

situation with Greece? Now

what are we likely to see in

the next few day, it's a

pretty crucial period, Greg

you will follow things

closely, what is year view,

where is the global economy

heading, what I have seen is the projections going forward

in this country certainly are

of the cash rate continuing

to plummet, which is bad news

for economic activity, but I

guess on the upside for

people with home mortgages it means they will get interest

rate cuts. It's a worrying

time and put Greece to one

side for a moment, if you

look at Europe and the US the

data suggests there is

serious slow down on the

horizon, we have seen this

week China slow ing at a rate

not seen for 13 years in

terms of etc growth. The

problem is unlikela last --

unlike last time the

countries have run out of

bullets, you don't have them

in Spain and Italy across

Europe you had four or five

years ago, China announced

this week it won't announce a

massive stimulus package, the

US has room to move, I think

it's a really tricky time. How do they have room

to move? There is talk of a

third round of quantitative

easing but the third... Inflation. Inflating

the debt away but it's worked

before Tim and what you said

Tim, about most stimulus ever

in Europe we will be in the

midst of a depression right

now. That is rubbish. Go back

and look at the great

depression and if you look at

the US where they actually

massively regulated their

economy they extended the

Great Depression, if you look

at the UK and Australia, they

actually went through periods of austerity, and actually had the fastest growth

periods of any countries in the world during those time lines. Australia ploughed

public money into works and

things like that, they

stimulate ed Australia out of

the economy. Nowhere near

like the US. This is not

true. Stimulus will not work,

it is just building debt for

future but going back to the

actual question, in terms

Greece. It was about a very difficult period in the

global economics position,

absolutely, and the best

thing to do is to make sure

we are in a position where we

can do things like cut

interest rates again, which

US, and lots of other

countries don't have, because

they are already at zero or

near zero. Tim has gotten the

last word unfortunately but

we are out of time. Dr Greg

O'Mahoney, Mr Tim Wilson, and

Dee Madigan have you updated

that twit? I think I

have. You check it. We are

out of time, thanker now your

company on this episode of Contrarians be sure and tune

in on Sunday morning to 'Australian Agenda' our guest

will be Leader of the House Anthony Albanese which should

be a good one given the last

fortnight of parliamentary sittings will be an

interesting spectacle to

watch, I am Peter van Onselen

see you then. Live Captioning by Ai-Media