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Warning on ETS amendment changes

ELEANOR HALL: But we begin today in Canberra where the negotiations on climate change are about to
get serious.

The Climate Change Minister Penny Wong will meet the Opposition's emissions trading spokesman, Ian
Macfarlane, this afternoon, to discuss amending the Government's emissions trading scheme

Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull won approval from his party room yesterday to negotiate with the
Climate Change Minister and is now proposing changes in six major areas. But even before they've
exchanged a word Mr Macfarlane has warned the Government that if the Opposition's amendments are
tweaked too much, the legislation is as good as dead.

From Canberra, Sabra Lane reports.

SABRA LANE: After Question Time this afternoon, the Climate Change Minister Penny Wong and the
Coalition's emissions trading spokesman Ian Macfarlane will finally sit down face to face, and
start talking about the Opposition's amendments.

Yesterday the Coalition agreed on amendments covering six areas in the Government's carbon
pollution reduction bills. But Ian Macfarlane was sounding tough this morning on Radio National,
indicating to Penny Wong there's not much room for compromise.

IAN MACFARLANE: If the party room doesn't accept those amendments when they come back from the
meeting with Minister Wong then the legislation is dead.

SABRA LANE: The Climate Change Minister's also talking tough; Penny Wong says regardless of today's
talks, the Government has a strict timetable.

PENNY WONG: We'll be introducing this legislation into the House on Thursday of this week. We
propose to have it debated in the week thereafter and voted on in the week beginning November 16th
and we'll be debating it in the Senate thereafter.

SABRA LANE: So you are expecting a vote the last week of November and that is what you'll live and
die by?

PENNY WONG: We have made our timetable clear for a long time now. That we wanted this voted on this
year. We have offered if the Opposition required additional sittings. Mr Turnbull indicated that is
not necessary. So we are going to be focussing now on engaging in the negotiations in relation to
the proposals Mr Turnbull has put forward.

SABRA LANE: The Government's 11 bills setting up the scheme will be introduced into the Lower House
on Thursday, where they'll be passed, as the Government has the numbers. The Senate will be the
sticking point, with the Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull conceding that even if the Coalition
frontbench agrees to final amendments, there'll probably be some senators who'll cross the floor

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, I wouldn't say I am happy but it is a fact of life. It has happened on many
issues and there are many distinguished members of the Liberal party room past and present who have
crossed the floor on occasions. We have a much greater respect for individual freedom of conscience
if you like on our side.

SABRA LANE: And already Malcolm Turnbull knows if it comes to that, Nationals Senator Ron Boswell
will be among those crossing the floor.

RON BOSWELL: The National Party will be voting against this.

SABRA LANE: But Senator Boswell fears the Government has another secret agenda at hand.

RON BOSWELL: I'm frightened the Government might vote for our members and put us into a lot of
pain, give us a lot of pain.

SABRA LANE: Yet his Opposition colleague Andrew Laming thinks the Government will reject all the
amendments this time round but will accept them next year and dress them up as Government changes.

ANDREW LAMING: This Prime Minister does not want to share credit with the Coalition in making
concessions. He is desperately hoping to have a divisive war over this and then make these same
concessions himself next year on his own and that's his game for 2010.

SABRA LANE: The Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce, arrived at Parliament this morning, wearing
a campaign T-shirt endorsing Bill Clinton and famous climate change campaigner Al Gore.

BARNABY JOYCE: This guy was president of the United States. This guy is a movie star.

SABRA LANE: The Senator says the Government's plans can be distilled down into one easy policy

BARNABY JOYCE: Don't you realise that what is happening here is you are just getting set up by a
massive new tax. The reality is that the temperature of the globe will go in exactly the same
course whether this legislation goes in or not.

SABRA LANE: If he believes that, Family First Senator Steve Fielding asks, why did he give Mr
Turnbull approval to negotiate with the Government?

STEVE FIELDING: Barnaby Joyce is a fraud when it comes to the ETS. Giving Malcolm Turnbull approval
to agree to amendments is a proxy vote for signing off an ETS before Copenhagen and that is
ridiculous. The Coalition is at risk of losing all economic credibility that they have left by
signing an ETS before Copenhagen. It is a sell out.

SABRA LANE: Minister Wong says the Government will assess the Opposition's amendments on whether
they're economically credible and environmentally sound.

The Opposition wants greater exemptions for big greenhouse-emitting industries. It also wants
agriculture permanently excluded from the scheme, more compensation for coal-fired power generators
and lower electricity prices.

And the Greens have condemned it all. Climate change spokeswoman, Christine Milne.

CHRISTINE MILNE: The Coalition don't believe the science. The Government knows what the science is
and hasn't got the courage to address it. They are as bad as each other but the Prime Minister is
running the country - not Malcolm Turnbull. It is the Prime Minister who will sell out future
generations if he does not recognise that what he is doing is green wash. It is just really

ELEANOR HALL: That is the Greens' spokeswoman on climate change, Christine Milne, ending that
report by Sabra Lane.

Scientists cite soil as significant

ELEANOR HALL: The Coalition may want agriculture excluded from the ETS but the nation's top climate
scientists are calling on the Federal Government to include soil and vegetation in Australia's
emissions trading scheme.

A report released by the Wentworth Group of Scientists says that unless this is done, it will be
"next to impossible" to achieve the emissions cuts needed to avoid the worst effects of climate

The ABC's environment reporter Sarah Clarke has been speaking to Wentworth Group scientist, Peter

PETER COSIER: Well, our analysis shows that if we increase the amount of carbon stored in
vegetation and soils across our landscape, it has the potential not only to make a profound
contribution to meeting our carbon pollution reduction targets but it also presents a unique
opportunity to address a raft of other seemingly intractable environmental problems.

In other words we can use soil and vegetation carbon to help address climate change but we can get
win-win outcomes if we design our institutional structures properly.

SARAH CLARKE: Is that the problem - that there are no institutional structures in place now?

PETER COSIER: Well at this stage we don't have those structures in place because we don't have a
terrestrial carbon market but if we do introduce a CPRS and if the Government does extend the
ability for polluters to offset their pollution by storing carbon in soil and vegetation then we
will create a very large terrestrial carbon market.

SARAH CLARKE: How effective is soil and vegetation? How effective are they in storing carbon?

PETER COSIER: Well the analysis that we have looked at which follows on some work by CSIRO for the
Queensland Government is that if Australia were to capture just 15 per cent of the biophysical
capacity of our landscape to store carbon, you would offset the equivalent of 25 per cent of
Australia's greenhouse gas emissions every year for the next 40 years.

SARAH CLARKE: Are other governments recognising soil and vegetation as an effective way of storing

PETER COSIER: Some governments have recognised it. In the United States for example the legislation
going through the United States does recognise soil and vegetation offsets as part of their
legislation but Australia is rather uniquely placed because, because we are relatively small
economy with a large landscape the contribution that terrestrial carbon can make to our carbon
pollution reduction targets is actually far greater relative to other nations.

SARAH CLARKE: What is the market worth then?

PETER COSIER: Well, if we were to achieve, capture 15 per cent of the potential that CSIRO estimate
is possible, we could potentially create a terrestrial carbon market in Australia of between $3
billion and $6 billion per annum as I said, every year for the next 40 years.

The actual market created would depend of course, on the size of the reduction target the
Government commits to.

SARAH CLARKE: How would farmers do this though? Would they have to put land aside to simply use
that soil to store carbon or could they continue farming and producing fruit and vegetables and
their produce?

PETER COSIER: Well, at the moment the CPRS does allow offsets into carbon forestry as it is called,
Kyoto-compliant forestry. If farmers chose to, they would be able to use some of those
opportunities to plant carbon forests or biodiversity plantings if they chose to on parts of their
property and that would give them a new income stream.

Of course there is a risk that if we don't properly regulate the market we could also see large
areas of agricultural land taken out of food production and converted into these carbon forests so
we need a balance but if we get the balance right, the potential benefits to agriculture in terms
of new income streams, the benefits for restoring degraded landscapes and biodiversity conservation
are enormous.

ELEANOR HALL: That is Peter Cosier from the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists speaking to our
environment reporter Sarah Clarke.

Coal fired protest in UK

ELEANOR HALL: In what may be a taste of things to come in the lead-up to the international climate
talks in Copenhagen, about 1000 demonstrators tried to shut down a coal-fired power station in

A large police contingent ensured that the protestors did not succeed but there were injuries and
arrests, as well as a message for coal exporting nations like Australia.

The ABC's Europe correspondent, Philip Williams filed this report.

(Sound of sirens)

PHILIP WILLIAMS No sooner had police surrounded the climate change protestors, another group world
break away and try and push through the fence somewhere else.

The aim, to shut the coal-fired power station at Ratcliffe-on-Soar - a facility they say does
enormous environmental damage. Some did get through, but the business of generating power continued
uninterrupted as did the publicity for the cause.

PROTESTOR: We have definitely drawn attention to the issues here around burning coal. There is no
future in this industry.

PROTESTOR 2: Nearly 1000 people came here this weekend to take part in that kind of civil
disobedience, to take these kind of actions and to take these risks to show just how passionate
they are about climate change and about stopping burning coal in this country.

PHILIP WILLIAMS: Police and demonstrators were injured in the scuffles. Chief Inspector Linda
McCarthy was in charge of security.

LINDA MCCARTHY: I don't think we were surprised. We had planned for this. I think what we were was
very disappointed. Of course all of this has a cost to it and sometimes very sadly that means the
individuals will be unnecessarily injured.

PHILIP WILLIAMS: The Labour Government is in a tricky political position. It needs to be seen as
sympathetic to the climate change activists' goals but not when they break the law.

British Climate Change Minister Ed Miliband.

ED MILIBAND: So while I think the aims of peaceful campaigners are right. I really would discourage
those who are engaging in the unlawful protests from doing so.

PHILIP WILLIAMS: But on the countdown to Copenhagen there will be more protests like this trying to
pressure all governments into investing in alternative energy.

Ed Thompson was part of the protest and he told me that major coa-exporting countries like
Australia carry a special responsibility but if governments won't act, groups like his will.

ED THOMPSON: The power station that we are protesting at producing 9.9 million tonnes of carbon
dioxide every single year which is actually the annual equivalent to whole entire nations such as
Nepal, Cambodia, Cameroon.

PHILIP WILLIAMS: Now your methods have been questioned by the Government. They say that there is no
place for illegal activity, for violence. How would you respond?

ED THOMPSON: In Britain we have got large numbers of very big environmental NGOs that have been
campaigning on climate change for years and years and years and in response the Government has said
yes to airport expansion, yes to new coal-fired power stations and no to significant investment
into renewables so basically you know, standard lobbying to the political elite really isn't

We have to take direct action in our own hands. Emissions have to start falling now. This is what
the scientists are saying. It is not happening so the people are doing it for themselves.

PHILIP WILLIAMS: The power didn't go off at Ratcliffe on Soar nor did the pressure on the British
Government as the Copenhagen deadline approaches.

This is Philip Williams in London reporting for The World Today.

People smuggler on Sri Lankan boat

The Federal Government has confirmed that a convicted people smuggler known as "Captain Bram" was
on board a boat carrying 250 Sri Lankan asylum seekers bound for Australia. His case will be
discussed by the Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister, when they head to Indonesia tonight.
But the Opposition says the Government should stop expecting Indonesia to do its dirty work, and
acknowledge that its policies have led to an increase in boat arrivals.

ELEANOR HALL: The Federal Government has confirmed that a convicted people smuggler was on board a
boat bound for Australia carrying 250 Sri Lankan asylum seekers. The boat remains docked in the
port of Merak in West Java and Indonesian authorities have taken the man into custody.

The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Foreign Minister Stephen Smith will fly to Indonesia this evening
and are expected to discuss the asylum-seeker issue in detail with their Indonesian counterparts.

In Canberra, Naomi Woodley reports.

NAOMI WOODLEY: Kevin Rudd and Stephen Smith are flying to Indonesia tonight to attend the
inauguration of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. But behind the pomp and ceremony the issues of
people smuggling and border protection will dominate talks.

Speaking on AM this morning, Stephen Smith highlighted the size of the problem for both nations.

STEPHEN SMITH: There have been two boats in the last 24 hours where Australian facilities or assets
have rendered assistance. One has been taken to Christmas Island because it was in Australian
waters. The other we are in consultation with the Indonesian search and rescue authority because it
was within the Indonesian search and rescue area.

NAOMI WOODLEY: But it is the wooden boat carrying 250 Sri Lankan asylum seekers that is still the
focus of attention. Stephen Smith has confirmed that a man previously convicted of people smuggling
was on board.

Abraham Lauhenapessy has now been arrested by Indonesian authorities in Merak in West Java, where
the boat is docked.

STEPHEN SMITH: What my most recent advice is, is that Abraham or Captain Bram as he is known, has
been taken into custody by Indonesian authorities.

I am advised that he was on the boat. He is now in their custody. He is of course, someone who has
previously been convicted of people smuggling offences. He is well known to Australian and to
Indonesian authorities.

NAOMI WOODLEY: The Foreign Affairs Minister says he can't confirm allegations by the spokesman for
the asylum seekers, that the boat was within five hours of Australian waters, but turned back,
because Captain Bram faced 20 years jail in Australia if he was arrested. That's in stark contrast
to the two years in jail and $3,000 fine he was given by Indonesian authorities on previous people
smuggling charges.

Mr Smith says he will discuss the case with his counterpart Hassan Wirajuda during talks in Jakarta
- but won't say if Australia will be pushing for a tougher sentence this time.

STEPHEN SMITH: The Indonesian authorities know all too well that this is a big regional problem.

NAOMI WOODLEY: The Opposition's immigration spokeswoman Sharman Stone says the need for tougher
penalties in Indonesia is clear - but she says simply giving Indonesia more money to address the
problem won't work.

SHARMAN STONE: Prime Minister Rudd has to acknowledge that Indonesia can't do its dirty work, it
can't do its heavy lifting. It has got to be a regional response of course but while the pull
factors are so powerful, you are not going to have boats suddenly stop because they are told that
Australia is spending more money on Indonesian detention facilities.

NAOMI WOODLEY: She says the Federal Government must acknowledge that it's to blame for the steady
increase in asylum seekers trying to reach Australia by boat.

SHARMAN STONE: It is not Indonesia's problem. It is not Malaysia's problem. It is Australia's
problem for recommencing the pipeline of smugglers. There were none in business when we were in
Coalition, when we had sorted it. This government has got to sort it.

NAOMI WOODLEY: The Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith is maintaining the Government's view that
unrest around the world and not its decision to scrap temporary visas or the Pacific Solution is
the problem.

STEPHEN SMITH: The push factors from Afghanistan, the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area and most
recently from the civil disruption in Sri Lanka are seeing large numbers of people coming our way.

NAOMI WOODLEY: It's a view the Government backbencher Nick Champion tried to convey heading into
Parliament House this morning - before the media's attention was distracted by the arrival of the
maverick Liberal backbencher, Wilson Tuckey.

NICK CHAMPION: The issue of asylum seekers is mainly due to push factors, things like Afghanistan,
conflicts in Sri Lanka. There has been a huge increase just this year because of Afghanistan. There
are some 15 million refugees on their ... that is all right. That is OK.

NAOMI WOODLEY: Opposition backbenchers too - were grabbing their chance to make a political point.
Andrew Laming and Jamie Briggs say it's clear the Australian Government is to blame.

ANDREW LAMING: A direct result of Mr Rudd's actions coming back to haunt him.

JAMIE BRIGGS: Kevin Rudd needs to answer and the Labor Party members need to answer. Why did they
make those changes?

NAOMI WOODLEY: And Sharman Stone says while there may be push factors from conflicts around the
world, there are pull factors too.

SHARMAN STONE: This Government has got to understand, they are the problem. They are the pull
factors. They are the ones who have made it a great commercial opportunity for smuggling.

NAOMI WOODLEY: The Australian Federal Police has announced another seven Indonesian men have been
charged with people-smuggling offences. They're alleged to have been the crews of two separate
boats which arrived in Australia in September with 146 people on board.

ELEANOR HALL: Naomi Woodley reporting.

President points to Pakistan

ELEANOR HALL: Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmedinajad, is now accusing Pakistan of being behind the
suicide attack on his Revolutionary Guards in the country's south-east overnight.

A Sunni group known as Jundallah has claimed responsibility for the attack which killed more than
three dozen people including several senior members of the President's elite Revolutionary Guard.
Initially the Iranian leadership accused the United States and Britain of being involved in the
attack, which coincides with the preparations for the Vienna talks on Iran's nuclear future.

Dr Anthony Bubalo is the program director for West Asia at the Lowy Institute and he spoke to me a
short time ago.

Anthony Bubalo, the Jundallah has reportedly claimed responsibility for this suicide attack. What
can you tell us about this group?

ANTHONY BUBALO: This is an organisation that is, a Sunni terrorist organisation, that for a number
of years has been fighting a violent campaign in support of the Baluchi rights in Balochistan a
predominately Sunni province of Iran.

ELEANOR HALL: And how lawless is this region of Iran which of course borders Afghanistan and

ANTHONY BUBALO: Some of the groups along this border including Jundallah have been heavily involved
in drug smuggling and other smuggling activities so the border area has been fairly lawless and
opened up a lot of movement back and forth across into Pakistan and into Afghanistan including by
this group.

ELEANOR HALL: And there have been similar attacks earlier this year on the Revolutionary Guard but
is it unusual that these suicide bombers managed to breach security around such high-level members
of the Revolutionary Guard?

ANTHONY BUBALO: It doesn't happen that often but it is not that unusual in the sense that sometimes
they get lucky and they get a good piece of intelligence as they seem to have in this case.

ELEANOR HALL: And President Ahmedinajad has accused Pakistani security agents of being involved in
this attack. Do you think that is likely?

ANTHONY BUBALO: Look, it is very unclear. We don't know. Of course the Iranians have alleged and in
fact it's the case that Jundallah does operate across the border but precisely what connection
Jundallah has to the Pakistani intelligence services and whether they would have been involved in
this particular attack is not clear.

What is interesting I suppose is that initially at least, the regime was blaming the US for having
links in the Jundallah and now seems to shift the focus to Pakistan and that might be significant
given the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear issue.

ELEANOR HALL: And what would be the motivation for Pakistani security agents to be involved in an
attack like this?

ANTHONY BUBALO: Oh look, both countries have traded allegations. There is a Baluchi insurgency on
the Pakistani side of the border against the Pakistani state and the Pakistanis have claimed that
Iran has supported groups on its side of the border. So there has been a kind of tit for tat
element to it as well.

ELEANOR HALL: The Iranian leadership was initially blaming the US and the UK. Is this any more than
just predictable rhetoric?

ANTHONY BUBALO: I think it is. I mean there have been claims in the press from time to time that
the US, the US intelligence agencies have had connections into some of these insurgent groups but
nothing has ever been proven about those connections and again the most interesting thing for me
here is how the focus was initially on the US and the UK and now seems to have shifted to Pakistan
and that may suggest that the regime is keen that this not play into and affect its current
negotiations and talks with the US and others on the nuclear issue.

ELEANOR HALL: Well this attack has happened just before the Vienna meeting to discuss an agreement
on Iran's nuclear future. Is it likely to be connected to that, do you think?

ANTHONY BUBALO: I don't think it is. I think these groups are fairly opportunistic and it would
have been the opportunity more than any specific connection to the negotiations that would have
motivated the attack.

ELEANOR HALL: Well, also the Revolutionary Guard led the crackdown on election protestors this
year. Is there likely to be a connection between this spate of attacks on the Revolutionary Guard
and the disputed election results?

ANTHONY BUBALO: No, I don't think so. I think, as I said, these groups are fairly opportunistic.
They would have taken any opportunity to strike at senior, particularly security and intelligence
forces personnel from the regime. So I don't think you should read too much into this in terms of
the post-election unrest in Iran.

ELEANOR HALL: And President Ahmedinajad has vowed retaliation for this attack. What form do you
think that might take?

ANTHONY BUBALO: Time will tell. The interesting question will be whether they try and strike at
some of these groups within Pakistan. I think that is probably unlikely but that is a possibility.

ELEANOR HALL: Is it worrying if there is a growing divide between Pakistan and Iran?

ANTHONY BUBALO: There has always been a high degree of competition between Iran and Pakistan
including in Afghanistan where they have tended to support different sides of the political divide
in that country but, and of course, it does become a concern if this increases tensions between the
two countries.

ELEANOR HALL: Anthony Bubalo, thanks very much for joining us.


ELEANOR HALL: That is Anthony Bubolo, the program director for West Asia at the Lowy Institute.

Pakistan offensive takes toll on Taliban

ELEANOR HALL: In Pakistan, Government forces are pushing deep into Taliban territory in the
volatile South Waziristan region.

The Pakistani military says it has so far killed 60 militants but the Taliban is putting up fierce
resistance and is warning that it will carry out more terrorist attacks.

This report from South Asia correspondent Sally Sara.

(Hakimullah Mehsud speaking)

SALLY SARA: This is the voice of the man who has declared war on the Pakistani Government.
Hakimullah Mehsud is the young leader of the Pakistani Taliban. He's threatening to take the fight
to every corner of the country. He's believed to be somewhere in South Waziristan, the remote
region along the border with Afghanistan. More than 30,000 Pakistani troops are pushing into the
area, hunting for Mehsud and his fighters.

Pakistani Army spokesman, Major General Athar Abbas, says the progress of the troops has been slow.

ATHAR ABBAS: They are moving at a slow pace because it is a mountainous terrain. We have to be very
sure footed. There are a number of mines and IEDs (improvised explosive devices) in the area which
require clearance. So, there are search and clearance operations also going on.

SALLY SARA: The Pakistani military has been planning this operation for months. It was approved by
the government back in July. Since then, the Taliban have carried out a series of deadly terrorist
attacks and warned the Government to back off. But, the Government says there will be no peace
deals and public opinion now seems to be in favour of the military offensive.

Security analyst Maria Sultan says the aim is to take out the leadership of the Taliban, even if
there are more terrorist attacks in the short term.

MARIA SULTAN: These kinds of attacks, we should not think they are going to diminish. They are more
likely to increase for the time being. But, if you take out the leadership and you take out the
backbone, you will have much more success in eradicating these elements and also ensuring that it
does not become a mass movement.

SALLY SARA: The civilians of South Waziristan are caught in the middle of the fight. Thousands have
already fled the unrest, but many others remain trapped in their homes.

The Government says most of the displaced families are staying with relatives in other districts.
But, local administrator Tariq Haqqi Khan says help will be provided.

TARIQ HAQQI KHAN: We are already looking after 12,800 families as of today who have moved out of
South Waziristan. We are not ruling out the possibility of establishing camps for the IDPs
(internally displaced people) if need be and we are ready for it.

SALLY SARA: The military offensive is still in its early stages and many Pakistanis are bracing
themselves for the Taliban's promised revenge attacks. Security forces remain on high alert across
the country

This is Sally Sara in Islamabad for The World Today.

US losing patience with Afghan deadlock

ELEANOR HALL: The US administration is showing increasing impatience with Afghanistan's
politicians, with yet another delay in the handing down of the official review into election fraud.

A ruling had been expected on the weekend, but Afghan officials now say the two commissions
involved in deciding the outcome are deadlocked on what constitutes fraud.

Afghan authorities have said if an election run-off is required, it could be organised within two
weeks. But the Obama administration is indicating that any troop increase will not happen until
Afghanistan's political problems are resolved.

Barney Porter has our report.

BARNEY PORTER: The tone was direct.

RAHM EMANUEL: It would be reckless to make a decision on US troop level if in fact we hadn't done a
thorough analysis of whether in fact there is an Afghan partner ready to fill that space that the
US troops would create and become a true partner in the governing the Afghan country.

BARNEY PORTER: Rahm Emanuel is the White House chief of staff.

RAHM EMANUEL: The most important there, get a government that is seen as legitimate to the people
and has the credibility to be a partner in the effort to secure Afghanistan so it's not a haven for
Al Qaeda or other type of terrorists or international terrorist organisations.

BARNEY PORTER: As Rahm Emanuel made those comments on CNN, Senator John Kerry told CBS television
President Obama should delay his decision on whether to increase troop numbers in Afghanistan until
after the election cloud had lifted.

JOHN KERRY: Look it would be entirely irresponsible for the President of the United States to
commit more troops to this country when we don't even have an election finished and know who the
president is and what kind of government we are working with.

And when our own commanding general tells us that a critical component of achieving our mission
here is in fact, good governance and we are living with a government that we know has to change and
provide it, how could the president responsibly say, oh they asked for more, sure, here they are
and we know that two critical schools of counter insurgency aren't going to stand. That would be
irresponsible for a president of the United States.

BARNEY PORTER: President Karzai is said by preliminary results to have won about 55 per cent of the
vote. But amid the fraud accusations, he's come under mounting pressure to accept a run-off against
his rival - the ex-foreign minister, Abdullah Abdullah - who's reported to have garnered about 28
per cent of the vote.

General Jack Keane is a former US army vice chief of staff who helped persuade president George W
Bush to back the military surge in Iraq. He's not concerned about the political problems.

JACK KEANE: In all due to respect to the Senator, we should not let a challenging political
situation trump the security situation in Afghanistan. The commanding general has already told us
we have a deteriorating situation. If we wait weeks or months for the political situation to
resolve itself, the security situation will be considerably worse and even if the political
situation did resolve itself, it will have no impact on the security situation.

BARNEY PORTER: Fred Barbash is a senior editor at the US newspaper, Politico. He says the Obama
administration appears to have lost confidence in the Government.

FRED BARBASH: It sounds like they're paving the way for some sort of middle-of-the-road strategy in
Afghanistan by essentially saying success depends not on us but on them.

And as long as you put the emphasis on them, especially given the public opinion polling here, the
United, citizens here polled had no confidence in the Government in Afghanistan whatsoever, as long
as the emphasis is placed on the Karzai Government, there isn't going to be any support for a
really vigorous increase, a surge type of increase in American troops over there.

BARNEY PORTER: That's also the view of Professor Clive Williams, from the Centre for Policing,
Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism at Macquarie University.

CLIVE WILLIAMS: I think they are trying to water down what General McChrystal wanted and I don't
think he specifically put a number on but generally speaking people were expecting that he would
seek something like 40,000 extra military US military there.

And because the critical period from most analysts' point of view is the next 12 to 18 months
because we will see some weakening perhaps of NATO resolve in that period and there is a need to
certainly upsurge the training of the military, the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National
Police and so that next 12 to 18 months is pretty critical.

But if he doesn't get what he wants then he is obviously going to have to rethink his strategy,
particularly the issue of local security because that is a prerequisite really to doing a lot of
the reconstruction work that he was proposing.

BARNEY PORTER: Should Australia be sending more troops into this theatre when there are so many

CLIVE WILLIAMS: Well, I think Oruzgan is probably a more management province. It is nowhere near as
dangerous as Helmut and if we were to have equivalence with the US commitment and the British
commitment, you would be looking at something like 2,500 Australians there.

But I am not sure that the Australian Government wants to go down that line. I am pretty sure they
don't want to go down that track because of course the potential, if you have got more people
there, you are going to have more casualties so that is something we are trying to avoid and the
reason we are there of course is for alliance solidarity but if it starts to look as though we are
not pulling our weight then we probably will come under more pressure to provide more people.

ELEANOR HALL: That is Professor Clive Williams, from the Centre for Policing, Intelligence and
Counter-Terrorism at Macquarie University ending Barney Porter's report.

Forecaster says crisis over, but recovery will be painful

ELEANOR HALL: Australia might have avoided the worst of the global economic downturn, but today the
economic forecaster Access Economics is warning that the recovery is unlikely to be robust.

Economists though are rapidly revising their outlooks for interest rates, with some predicting that
the official cash rate could rise to 4 per cent by the end of this year, as business editor Peter
Ryan reports.

PETER RYAN: This time last year, Chris Richardson was like most other economists in predicting
massive government stimulus, rising unemployment and plunging interest rates as the global
financial crisis unfolded. Now the view that Australia has escaped the worst case scenario has
Chris Richardson breathing a qualified sigh of relief.

CHRIS RICHARDSON: Recovery is starting in Australia. It is starting around the world and that is
magnificent news. Equally, it does come at a cost.

PETER RYAN: In the latest Business Outlook from Access Economics, Chris Richardson warns the
headwinds of recovery will be difficult to navigate. He says unemployment, currently 5.7 per cent,
is yet to peak at 6.8 per cent and that the price of better times will be higher interest rates.

CHRIS RICHARDSON: The better things get, the more that interest rates need to rise. They dropped to
emergency lows when things were at their worst. They keep rising from here. Well, normally they are
about two percentage points higher than they are today. Chances are, we will get back there the
first half of 2011.

PETER RYAN: What is going to happen to rates do you think then in the next 12 months?

CHRIS RICHARDSON: That means fairly steady rate rises from now. Not too much all at once and the
Reserve Bank knows that we sail through this crisis on the back of stimulus. It won't raise rates
too fast but it will raise them steadily from here.

PETER RYAN: Chris Richardson says the trillions of dollars of economic stimulus paid by governments
around the world over the past year has boosted economic activity rather than just putting a floor
under it. But when the stimulus is gradually rolled back, he says it won't be pleasant.

CHRIS RICHARDSON: The average Australian family has sailed through this on the back of a temporary
10 per cent pay rise from governments or the cash splash and from interest rate cuts. Now the cash
splash has gone. The interest rate cuts are being unwound. This will hurt more than most people

PETER RYAN: The pace of the recovery and the Reserve Bank's swift action in declaring the emergency
over has surprised most interest rate watchers, including Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans.
He's now expecting the RBA to move aggressively in November with a 50 basis point hike on Melbourne
Cup Day.

BILL EVANS: Well, I think that the Reserve Bank will certainly raise rates in both November and
December. I think the urgency that we read into the speech that the Reserve Bank governor gave last
week and the fact that interest rates are so low at the moment indicates that they will be active
in both months and there is a reasonable chance that the movement in November might be as much as
half a per cent rather than the standard quarter of a per cent.

PETER RYAN: Do you think that the Reserve Bank board is taking the view that rates need to rise and
it is better to push them up earlier rather than taking a more gradual approach?

BILL EVANS: Well, I think they have taken the approach that says that the 125 basis points that
were done earlier on this year in terms of cutting rates were in a very different environment of
the economic outlook to where we are today and so it makes some sense to redress that relatively

PETER RYAN: Do you think that the Reserve Bank also wants to make the point that it is a good thing
that the economy is in better shape and to send the message to the general public that when the
economy is in good shape, that is when rates need to go up?

BILL EVANS: Yes, I think the fact that rates go up is indicating that the economy is in good shape
but the important point is that they are at such low levels now that rates rising isn't pushing
rates into a level that would constrain the economy. We are a long way from that.

PETER RYAN: When the Reserve Bank governor talks about normalising rates, what figure do you think
that he has in mind for the cash rate?

BILL EVANS: Well, I don't think he really knows. I think he knows that it is above current levels.
Our view is that once rates reach 4.5 per cent, the cash rate, next year which we think will
probably be sometime in the second quarter of next year, then the Reserve Bank will go for a
substantially extended pause.

PETER RYAN: Economists are now waiting on tomorrow's release of the minutes from the last meeting
of the Reserve Bank board for any sign of how aggressive future rate rises will be.

ELEANOR HALL: That is business editor, Peter Ryan.

Court knocks back biggest NSW development

ELEANOR HALL: The New South Wales Opposition says there's something rotten in the state when it
comes to planning approvals for housing developments.

Today, the Land and Environment Court overturned a Government approval for the largest housing
development in the state. While in Parliament, the former planning minister was grilled over the
role that lobbyists play in the government's planning process.

In Sydney, Timothy McDonald reports.

TIMOTHY MCDONALD: It was supposed to be the biggest housing development in the state but today the
Land and Environment Court ruled against the project, saying a land swap deal the Government did
with the developer made it invalid.

The Sweetwater Action Group took the Government to court over the 7,200-house project in the Lower
Hunter. Spokesman James Ryan says locals think it's a good outcome.

JAMES RYAN: They value their village. They value their heritage. They value their bushland and they
value a quiet way of life and they really like living where they do and to have the State
Government come along and foist on them an entirely new town of 20,000 people in an environmentally
sensitive area and done in a way with this last-minute lobbying from large developers when the site
had been assessed as being the least suitable out of 91 in the whole of the Lower Hunter, it really
made people angry.

TIMOTHY MCDONALD: Local resident Dennis Rothwell says many in the area will be pleased, because
they weren't satisfied with the process.

DENNIS ROTHWELL: I'd say it's a great victory for sanity and I think it can only be to the
advantage of all the local residents. Nobody who chooses to live in a rural area wants to be
overwhelmed by a development of this size, particularly when you consider the process by which the
permission was obtained.

TIMOTHY MCDONALD: The developer, Huntlee Holdings, agreed to transfer nearly 6,000 hectares of land
to the Government which would be set aside for national parks and conservation reserves. In one
previous similar case, the Land and Environment Court went so far as to describe a similar swap as
a "land bribe". The court said that by accepting the land, the previous minister Frank Sartor would
potentially have been a biased participant rather than an impartial umpire.

A spokesman for the current Minister Kristina Keneally says today's decision not to contest the
matter came after a review of previous court decisions. The Government argues there's nothing wrong
with environmental offsets per se - it's just that the proper procedures weren't followed in this

But the Opposition's planning spokesman Brad Hazzard says the case is further evidence that the
planning system in New South Wales is in desperate need of an overhaul.

BRAD HAZZARD: Planning laws need to be certain. They need to be clear. They need to be transparent.
What we know as a result of this decision and the Government and State Labor's admissions is that
there is no transparency, no certainty particularly where there has been dollars donated to the
State Labor Party before the planning decision approvals were given.

TIMOTHY MCDONALD: Community groups too have long argued that political donors and their lobbyists
have a relationship with the Government that's far too cosy.

That relationship has come under the microscope at a parliamentary inquiry into the death of
Michael McGurk, a Sydney developer who was gunned down outside his home. The inquiry has previously
heard that Labor identity Graeme Richardson previously met with the head of the planning

The former planning minister Frank Sartor says he met with Mr Richardson about once a year, but
never discussed planning matters.

FRANK SARTOR: He kept quite clear of me.

QUESTIONER: He kept clear of you?


QUESTIONER: Do you think that was deliberate?

FRANK SARTOR: I have no idea. You would have to ask Graeme that.


TIMOTHY MCDONALD: Mr Sartor defends his own record of dealing with lobbyists and says he never
allowed them to discuss the merits of a proposal during a meeting. But he says it's a tricky issue
to deal with because the planning process requires constant revision, and meetings between
department officials and developers. He says it's difficult to know exactly where to draw the line
about who meets with who.

FRANK SARTOR: I think we need to bring a bit of sanity into this debate. There are two types of
people involved in a development process. There is the applicant and their technical advisors and
then there is a whole bunch of people that give them other advice like public relations companies,
like government relations people, like lobbyists and so on.

The difficulty you have in starting to buy into that is that you can't just have a rule for Graeme
Richardson. You have got to have a rule for everybody.

TIMOTHY MCDONALD: Graeme Richardson is expected to face the inquiry this afternoon.

ELEANOR HALL: Timothy McDonald in Sydney.

More resources needed to fix oil spill

ELEANOR HALL: The Federal Opposition says oil is continuing to leak from a rig into the Timor Sea
not because of a technological problem but because of a lack of resources.

And it's calling on the Federal Government to assist the company responsible by providing more

people and equipment to help plug the leak. The operator of the offshore rig says it will try for
the fourth time to cap the leak later this week.

Bronwyn Herbert reports.

BRONWYN HERBERT: It's now labelled a "deep ocean tragedy" as more than 400 barrels of oil each day
spew from the Montara Well into the Timor Sea. Eight weeks on, the latest efforts by the operator
to plug the leak with heavy mud have failed.

West Australian Greens Senator Rachel Siewert.

RACHEL SIEWERT: This operation was always going to be extremely difficult. It is like finding a
straw with a straw beneath the seabed and so I must admit I am not surprised that it has taken this
many attempts.

BRONWYN HERBERT: The Federal environment department commissioned a team of biologists to conduct a
survey of marine life in the region last month. Senator Siewert says she wants to know why the
results haven't been released.

RACHEL SIEWERT: Information about the extent of this spill and also the impacts of this spill, we
have been extremely critical of the Government's slow response. After this spill they should have
had a monitoring plan in place in a much more speedy manner than they have.

BRONWYN HERBERT: The Thai-owned company PTTEP Australasia says it will need time to recalculate,
before it makes its fourth attempt to intercept the leak. Senator Siewert says she is concerned the
Federal Government enquiry into the spill won't be comprehensive.

RACHEL SIEWERT: I'm extremely concerned that the enquiry that the Minister for Resources, Minister
Ferguson intends to carry out will be a limited enquiry into regulation and whether the regulatory
process was effective, that in fact implemented. That, of course, is very important but we need a
much more comprehensive enquiry looking at the coordination across all state and federal agencies.

BRONWYN HERBERT: The leak is now in its ninth week and its estimated tens of millions of litres of
oil have made their way into the ocean. Last week fisherman in West Timor said the spill is
responsible for thousands of fish being killed and that people have become sick after eating
oil-affected fish.

The Federal Opposition environment spokesman Greg Hunt says the failure of the Government and the
company to use resources when offered shows an error of judgement.

GREG HUNT: They were offered assistance by Woodside, one of Australia's great companies, to help -
they rejected that assistance - they have sat idly by. It is time for the Government to ensure that
the best of the best from around the world are called in. If this had been off St Kilda or Bondi or
somewhere off the eastern states then we would have had a national outcry.

BRONWYN HERBERT: Greg Hunt says the Government shouldn't delay in releasing all the available

GREG HUNT: There should be full and complete disclosure for all marine research into the marine
tragedy that is unfolding. This is a deep ocean tragedy. It is affecting marine life. There can be
no doubt that that is the case and what we are hearing from reports from the fishing community both
in Australia and overseas is that there are real effects on marine life.

BRONWYN HERBERT: A Department of Environment spokeswoman says the Government's marine report will
be made public in due course. The department says 16 birds have died and there are no confirmed
reports of whales or other marine mammals impacted by the oil spill.

PTTEP Australasia was not available to speak with The World Today, but a company spokesman said
more than 300 people were working on the problem.

ELEANOR HALL: Bronwyn Herbert reporting.

Calls for a new way of dealing with pain

ELEANOR HALL: It affects the lives of millions of Australians and is estimated to cost the economy
tens of billions of dollars. But Australian health authorities don't have an official strategy when
it comes to dealing with chronic pain.

Now an expert committee is working to change that by calling for chronic pain to be treated as a
disease in its own right rather than just a symptom, as Simon Lauder reports.

SIMON LAUDER: Fifty-three-year-old Mandy Sedgewick has lived with chronic pain since the mid 1980s.
It seemed to be brought on by hours of holding a phone to her ear with her shoulder at work and the
pain got so bad she couldn't function normally anymore.

MANDY SEDGEWICK: I virtually just got more pain as it went on over the months and then I couldn't
drive my car, couldn't look after my kids. Found that the doctors couldn't work out what was wrong
with me and it took three years for a doctor to work out that I had been born with extra ribs and
I'd actually crushed them on all the thoracic outlets.

SIMON LAUDER: Ms Sedgewick was eventually diagnosed with chronic regional pain syndrome, but she
says it was a struggle to find the right help.

MANDY SEDGEWICK: I'd go in and someone would say to me, well you look alright and I'd say yeah,
well my arms are swollen and all this and that and they'd say well, we can't find anything wrong
with you. They'd look at me and with nerve damage and with pain, you can't see it and unless you
have done something very bad to yourself, you are not going to be swollen enough to even be able to
prove that.

SIMON LAUDER: Chronic pain is classed as constant pain that sticks around for three months or more.
It can be caused by an accident, an underlying problem or it can appear after surgery. An estimated
three million Australians have it and an Access Economics report estimates the cost to the
Australian economy at $34.4 billion dollars per year.

But internationally renowned pain specialist, Professor Michael Cousins, says the enigma of a
medical problem which can't be seen has led to great stigma for sufferers.

MICHAEL COUSINS: There are a lot of myths out there about chronic pain. You know, it is all in your
head. You are just trying to get strong painkillers. You are just trying to get off work and myths,
of course, are very, very difficult to dispel.

SIMON LAUDER: Professor Michael Cousins is the chairman of the National Pain Summit steering
committee. It's just finished drafting a National Pain Strategy recommending major changes to the
way pain is dealt with by the medical profession.

One of the recommendations is for more effort to be made to destigmatise pain, in the same way that
publicity campaigns have focussed on depression.

Professor Cousins says people need to acknowledge that pain itself can change people.

MICHAEL COUSINS: When pain goes on for more than about three months we believe, it starts to
produce changes in the individual which are physical, psychological and even environmental and all
of these add up to a disease entity just the same as any other disease.

SIMON LAUDER: The draft National Pain Strategy calls for chronic pain to be recognised as a disease
in its own right. Professor Cousins says brain-imaging technology has recently brought insights
into how the brain can be altered by chronic pain.

MICHAEL COUSINS: We've started to see that there are changes in the part of the cortex of the
brain, that is right on the surface of the brain, that deals with sensation and also with,
interestingly enough, with motor function and what has been found is that there are really quite
dramatic changes there in the anatomy and even sometime pathological changes that are associated
with some of the really nasty chronic pain conditions.

For example pain after spinal cord injury, pain associated with amputation and when one starts to
see these changes in humans, it becomes a lot easier for people to believe that regardless of the
condition that started the pain, and that might be for example spinal cord injury, that additional
pathology occurs in the nervous system which represents the disease of chronic pain.

SIMON LAUDER: The National Pain Summit steering committee says pain should become one of the vital
signs measured by hospitals when patients are admitted and the management of pain should be
addressed as part of the Federal Government's national health reforms.

The draft guidelines have the support of the Australian Medical Association. It's vice president,
Dr Steve Hambleton, says pain is one of the most difficult things for GPs to deal with.

STEVE HAMBLETON: And it is associated with depression. It is certainly associated with disability.
With our aging population we are seeing more pain sufferers all the time and a focus on this area
is certainly needed.

SIMON LAUDER: The National Pain Strategy will be finalised at a meeting of experts next year.

ELEANOR HALL: Simon Lauder with that report.