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CASA delivers Kokoda crash report.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: The first official word on the plane crash in Papua New Guinea which killed 13
people last month has been released.

The Airlines PNG plane crashed with nine Australians on board. They were heading north to walk the
Kokoda Track.

Our PNG Correspondent Liam Fox has been at the CASA briefing in Port Moresby today and he joins us
now.

Liam, these are the initial findings. Do they shed any light on what went wrong?

LIAM FOX: No they don't Elizabeth. It's only an interim report. It basically outlines the basic
facts and circumstances surrounding the crash. No causes have been identified.

But some of the important facts that it does identify: the last communication received from the
plane was when the pilot messaged to say that she was beginning her descent into Kokoda. Also the
weather at the time. There was extensive low cloud in the area with thunderstorms as well. And also
that other planes had taken off and landed from Kokoda that morning.

The pilots were appropriately qualified. They had extensive experience flying both those Twin Otter
planes and flying in the area.

Now the senior investigator Sid O'Toole says while they're yet to determine a cause and it's early
days in the investigation, he has assured people, particularly the families of the victims that
with Australia's help a lot of resources are being thrown at this investigation.

SIDNEY O'TOOLE: The fact of the matter is there are an enormous amount of resources and manpower
being thrown at this particular occurrence; so much so in fact that I would describe it as being a
watershed and in fact a historical moment in the history of air safety investigation here in Papua
New Guinea.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's senior air crash investigator Sidney O'Toole speaking from Port Moresby a
short time ago.

Liam you mentioned that the last communication with the pilot, she indicated that she was coming in
to land. Did she express any concerns? Was she worried about anything? Has any of that information
emerged?

LIAM FOX: No. In fact Sidney O'Toole said that from the communications and from all other
investigations so far it looks like a normal flight. That was the last communications from the
pilot saying she was beginning her descent. There were no indications of trouble from there.

Sidney O'Toole says yes, at this stage it looks like a normal flight and are yet to determine what
went wrong after that.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Well where does the process go to from here then?

LIAM FOX: Well the technical analysis really begins now.

Soon after the crash the wreckage of the plane was brought back to Port Moresby. The flight
instruments from the plane have now been sent to Canberra. They're going to be examined by officers
from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau who have been providing assistance through this whole
process. The plane's engines will soon be sent to Canada to the manufacturer for analysis there.

We asked Sidney O'Toole how long he thought this whole process might take. He estimated roughly a
final report could be ready within six months.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: He seemed to be indicating from the comment that he just made that for the first
time perhaps air crash investigation in PNG was being taken seriously. Is he hopeful that this will
be the situation from now on or is he concerned that this is perhaps a one-off?

LIAM FOX: No, as his comments indicated he believes this is a watershed. I think it's been
something of a wake-up call to PNG authorities because, due to the fact that it's received so much
international coverage, particularly back in Australia because of the number of Australians on
board the flight, a lot of resources are now being pumped into this Accident Investigation
Commission and it's really got off the ground since this crash.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Now after the crash there was a lot of talk about landing strip upgrades. Are
there any government plans now to change aviation standards in PNG?

LIAM FOX: Well there are no plans that have been announced for wider aviation standards but only a
week or so ago both the Australian and the Papua New Guinean Government announced something like $2
million will be used in the Kokoda area.

Now that will go towards, that will begin with a safety audit of aviation infrastructure in the
area. It's going to be looking at things like the quality of air strips, communications, things
like that. And that's due to begin soon.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Liam thank you.

That's our PNG correspondent joining us from Port Moresby, Liam Fox.

More young to pay for the old

ELIZABETH JACKSON: It's a challenge which the Federal Treasurer says is as great as climate change
- dealing with a bigger and older population.

In a classic good news bad news story the latest Intergenerational Report predicts Australia's
population will rise to 35 million in 40 years' time.

The number of older Australians is growing but there will also be more younger people to help
support those heading into old age.

The Treasurer Wayne Swan has spent the morning looking at the challenges of the ageing population.

Our chief political correspondent Lyndal Curtis reports.

LYNDAL CURTIS: The Treasurer has been out counting heads.

WAYNE SWAN: I can tell you today that Australia's population is projected to grow by 65 per cent to
reach over 35 million people in 2049. That is up from around 21.5 million people right now.

This projection of 35 million people is significantly higher than those that were produced in the
second intergenerational report. The projection there was 28.5 million in 2047.

LYNDAL CURTIS: Higher migration and women having more children will push Australia's population up.
But it is a population that is aging.

Mr Swan has told the launch of a new Institute For Population Ageing Research that over the next 40
years the number of people aged 65 to 84 will more than double and there will be four-and-a-half
times the number of people over 85.

Dealing with those population changes is one of the big challenges.

WAYNE SWAN: I think along with climate change this is the most substantial challenge we face. It's
an intergenerational challenge, it's an economic challenge, it's a social challenge and it goes to
the core in the end of the type of country we want to be.

LYNDAL CURTIS: The Government has already pushed up the retirement age but Mr Swan says more will
need to be done.

WAYNE SWAN: The Government needs to facilitate the significant contribution that older people can
make to the economy and the community and that also means an unparalleled degree of social
engagement and changes of approach in that area.

LYNDAL CURTIS: There is good news in the figures: there will be more younger people than predicted
in previous intergenerational reports.

Peter McDonald is a demographer at the Australian National University. He says that will help pay
for the costs of a rising population and a growing number of older Australians.

PETER MCDONALD: The demographic changes we've seen are making us relatively younger than we would
have been otherwise. And the effects there are quite substantial on budget in fact because a lot of
the costs associated with ageing are health costs and the income support costs. They won't be quite
as big as, relatively, as compared to the size of the labour force, as we'd predicated in the past.

As we've gone through these intergenerational reports the first one was very pessimistic, the
second one was a bit more optimistic and now this one is even more optimistic again in respect to
the costs of ageing.

LYNDAL CURTIS: He does believe that the increase in population will provide some challenges.

PETER MCDONALD: Particularly for cities. Cities will be bigger than we'd projected in the past and
there are, you know we already have problems in our cities. So urban infrastructure is going to be
very, very important.

We have to be considering the potential environmental effects of a bigger population but I think we
can deal with those.

What we're talking about here is a bigger labour force and that labour force will be generating
wealth and so Australia is liable to be quite a wealthy country and I think that's going to give us
the income to make all the environmental changes that we have to make.

LYNDAL CURTIS: But does it give us enough of a source of income to deal with the extra pressures on
the health and social security budgets that will come from having an older population?

PETER MCDONALD: Oh yes, certainly. We're much better off under this population regime than we were
when the first intergenerational report was published with the demographic trends at that time.

LYNDAL CURTIS: The Labor backbencher Kelvin Thomson is less relaxed about the increased population.
He warns Australia is sleepwalking into an environmental disaster.

KELVIN THOMSON: There will be impact on the availability of food, water, energy and land. These
things are already stretched and a 60 per cent population increase will only drive up the cost of
these essentials and lower our living standards.

And what about the impact on our major cities? Declining housing affordability, traffic congestion,
over-crowded concrete jungles.

LYNDAL CURTIS: Mr Thomson wants Australia's immigration rate cut.

KELVIN THOMSON: I think what we need to do is to go back to the sorts of levels that prevailed in
the early to mid-1990s and indeed for many years prior to that. That will produce better outcomes
than the ones we're getting now.

LYNDAL CURTIS: The institute Mr Swan launched has produced a longevity index to track the ability
of people to maintain living standards over their lifetime.

Professor John Evans from actuarial studies at the University of New South Wales is one of those
who have developed the index.

He says Australia isn't particularly good at doing the numbers on population changes but says it's
not the exact numbers that matter.

JOHN EVANS: You don't need to worry too much about the actual decimal places. I don't think that's
all that relevant. What is showing up is that people are definitely living longer than we thought
and therefore we are going to have to provide retirement income for people.

LYNDAL CURTIS: The figures may be tricky to predict; what to do about them though will be the
greater challenge.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Lyndal Curtis reporting.

National strategy targets truants

ELIZABETH JACKSON: It's barely been announced and already a Federal Government strategy to fight
truancy is under attack.

The Federal Families Minister Jenny Macklin joined Queensland Premier Anna Bligh to announce the
plan this morning.

The Minister has told journalists under new laws parents in urban communities will have welfare
payments suspended if their children consistently miss school.

Our reporter Annie Guest was at this morning's press conference and she joins me now.

Annie, what details did the minister reveal about her anti-truancy plan?

ANNIE GUEST: Elizabeth, Jenny Macklin said it would be trialled in 30 schools, affecting 2,000
parents. It'll be the first to be trialled in an outer metropolitan area. It is already being run
for the past six months in Katherine and some Northern Territory communities. This one will operate
in Logan, south of Brisbane, which is an area of, a lower socio-economic area, more people on
welfare and truancy about 15 per cent worse than the rest of the State.

And children who persistently skip school could have their, the parents of those children could
have their welfare payments suspended for 13 weeks. But the minister was at pains, Elizabeth, to
stress that that would only be in extreme circumstances.

JENNY MACKLIN: We want to make sure that children are enrolled to go to school, each and every one
of them. We want to make sure that children go to school on a regular basis. If they don't go to
school on a regular basis they are not going to get a good education. That's what this is all
about. This suspension of welfare payments will be used as a last resort.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's the Federal Families Minister Jenny Macklin speaking in Brisbane a short
time ago this morning.

Annie it sounds as though the minister is laying the blame for truancy at the feet of the parents.
How has that been received?

ANNIE GUEST: Well while this was only announced within the last couple of hours officially it was
leaked to the papers last night so people have had time to digest it this morning and there has
been a negative response in some quarters.

Now I should just clarify that it is also going to be trialled in the Aboriginal communities of
Doomadgee and Mornington Island in Queensland.

But here in Logan where I am at the moment, there is concern from the Logan Mayor that people
could, if they have the payments suspended, may not be able to pay their rent and put food on the
table. So the Mayor of Logan Pam Parker said the children could be worse off.

PAM PARKER: So how are you going to feed the family? Because I come back again to the child. The
child is the victim here. The child is not getting the education then you're wanting to take the
child's food away from the child as well.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's the Logan Mayor, Pam Parker.

Has the minister responded to that Annie?

ANNIE GUEST: Jenny Macklin said that she understood that people did have that view but that there
was a simple answer to it and that parents should just send their children to school.

She said that, she reiterated that it was really in extreme circumstances that payments are cut off
and that a lot of work is done with parents in stages before it gets to that point to try and
encourage them and help them to get their children to school.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Now what about families which don't receive welfare benefits? Has the minister
got a plan for them?

ANNIE GUEST: At this stage no, except for to encourage principals to take enrolments and firmly
insist that children attend school. But no, this plan is aimed at the children of parents who are
on welfare benefits.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Now Queensland's Premier Anna Bligh was with Jenny Macklin this morning. What
involvement if any will the State Government have in this?

ANNIE GUEST: Well it's interesting because the emphasis really was on the principal being the one
to have the relationship with the parents. So the principal of the school will meet with the
parents and if necessary go to the home of the family to have that meeting.

And then they will also along the way prior to that point have been sharing data, enrolment data,
with Centrelink.

So Queensland's Premier Anna Bligh said in a sense that the inference that you could draw from what
she said was that it was breaking down a bureaucratic barrier.

ANNA BLIGH: Really what we've got is two different levels of government, two government agencies,
the Education Department and Centrelink, who have kept their own data and never shared it. What we
will do here is share that information for the first time.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's Queensland's Premier Anna Bligh. And that report from our Brisbane
reporter Annie Guest.

Support builds for Fairfax board spill

ELIZABETH JACKSON: An ugly stoush has erupted in the boardroom of Fairfax Media with a key
independent director calling for the resignation of the group's chairman Ron Walker.

The businessman John B Fairfax who owns almost 10 per cent of Fairfax has launched a blistering
attack after Mr Walker said he'd stand for re-election at the company's next annual general
meeting.

Mr Fairfax has questioned Mr Walker's leadership, in particular the debt funded acquisition of
other media assets at the top of the market.

Here's our business editor Peter Ryan

PETER RYAN: There's been simmering discontent in the Fairfax Media boardroom for more than a year.

Most of it has been about leadership and who's best qualified to lead the once mighty publishing
empire out of its current crisis.

The powerful Melbourne businessman Ron Walker wants to stay in the chairman's seat but a key
independent director John B Fairfax, who owns 9.7 per cent of Fairfax stock, says Ron Walker needs
to go.

In a statement he's launched what most would regard as a blistering attack but Mr Fairfax maintains
it's just business.

EXTRACT FROM JOHN B FAIRFAX'S STATEMENT: We do not do this lightly. It is uncharacteristic. It is
not personal. Fairfax Media is a great company and is fundamental to our democratic process. With a
history of 178 years Fairfax Media needs and deserves the best leadership available.

PETER RYAN: Mr Fairfax says as part of boardroom renewal his company Marinya Media will vote
against Mr Walker's re-election at November's annual general meeting.

He says Mr Walker has failed the leadership tests of rebuilding shareholder value and strategic
direction at a time when the global media industry is in chaos.

JOHN B FAIRFAX: We also consider that inadequate attention has been paid to matters of corporate
governance and in our view during the four year period of Mr Walker's chairmanship an unacceptable
degree of risk was introduced to the company's capital structure through a series of debt funded
acquisitions.

PETER RYAN: John Fairfax's manoeuvre to end Ron Walker's tenure at Fairfax has been backed by the
fund manager Peter Morgan whose 452 Capital owns 5 per cent of Fairfax Media.

PETER MORGAN: I think it's been brewing in that sense that you know when you've got a major
shareholder - and that's the other point, JB has got, you know, a lot of money on the table in this
company. It's his own personal wealth. It probably was coming and is needed to come in the
environment that we're in.

We're in an environment where we've gone through a financial crisis that's still going to take a
while to clear. The consumer in Australia is still wondering whether to spend or not. And media
companies or newspaper companies worldwide are being challenged by the internet.

PETER RYAN: Peter Morgan wants John B Fairfax to step in as chairman, saying Ron Walker's plan for
re-election before retiring in 2010 is confusing for shareholders and the company in general.

PETER MORGAN: I mean that's the strange thing. It sort of puts the company in limbo for 10 months
or so. You know either you stay or you go. I mean, I don't see what, you know, if you're going to
go next year what the difference is going now as opposed to then.

I think it just puts a vacuum under the board during that time. And you know you can't sort of have
a chairman that's going to go being involved in perhaps selecting new directors and perhaps, you
know, still having some sort of control over the company. I think it's better for all concerned
that you go as quickly as possible.

PETER RYAN: Do you believe that between John B Fairfax and Roger Corbett, who came on board
recently, that there are two other potentially highly experienced chairmen in that room at the
moment?

PETER MORGAN: I think, you know, I think Roger's got a lot going for him. The one thing that
perhaps he doesn't have is the ability to work closely with Brian McCarthy and the rest of the
management team.

PETER RYAN: And how concerned are you about the potential for a boardroom stoush and the effect
that that would have on investor confidence?

PETER MORGAN: Well I think, you know, I think it's important that it occurs. I think it's all out
in the open now. I think it's a lot better that it's out in the open than being done behind closed
doors. At least everyone knows what's going on and it brings it to a head.

PETER RYAN: Fairfax shares have been punished over the past year falling to a low of 79 cents in
March.

They've since recovered in line with the rest of the market but today Fairfax fell 2 per cent to
$1.68 because of the boardroom disunity.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's our business editor Peter Ryan. And there'll be an extended interview
with fund manager Peter Morgan on The World Today's website later today.

Terrorism still a priority

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Analysts are warning that Indonesia's terrorist network could quickly recover
from the assassination of its most high profile leader Noordin Mohammad Top who was killed in a
police raid in Java yesterday.

Indonesia's police chief says he now has evidence that Top led a splinter group of Jemaah Islamiah
but was also the leader of a group calling itself Al Qaeda in South East Asia.

Joining us now to discuss the implications of Top's death is Indonesia expert Dr Greg Fealy. He's a
senior lecturer in Indonesian politics at the Australian National University.

Dr Fealy, welcome to The World Today.

GREG FEALY: Thank you Elizabeth, my pleasure.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: What can you tell us about this man Noordin Mohammad Top?

GREG FEALY: Well, he has been really the most important pivotal figure; the pivotal figure in
pretty much all of the terrorist attacks that have taken place in Indonesia since 2003. So that's
going back to the first Marriott Hotel bombing in Jakarta.

And he has been a key person in recruiting terrorists and in planning operations and in helping
people to put together logistics that made those operations come off.

So, and he has been seen by this sort of loosely coordinated network that we know as the Noordin
network, he has been seen as the central figure.

So the question now is: is there someone who is ready to replace him because one of the things we
know about the network is that it was very horizontal and very cell based. This is one of the
things that Noordin did in order to make it harder for the police to penetrate.

So the police might break open one particular cell but people in that cell had only very limited
knowledge of what else was happening in the network. Probably only a handful of people knew much
about the broader operations of this network.

So the question is, now that Noordin is gone how many people are in a position to keep in contact
with all of these cells and to know the stage and planning of various other operations that might
be underway.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: And do you have the answer to that question?

GREG FEALY: Not really. It's also notable that several of the other people who have been either
detained or killed in the police raids in the last couple of days were also seen as critical
people.

One man in particular, Urwa, was a very important person, high up on the police wanted list. There
was another bomb maker who was killed in the same attack that Noordin died in.

And people with skills such as bomb-making skills, these are very specific skills and they can't be
taught overnight. And you also need time to build up people's ability to run complex operations.

So if enough of these kinds of people are no longer available to the network well then that really
does dent their ability to operate in the short-term.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Do you think that's the case though or do you think they're prepared for this
kind of scenario?

GREG FEALY: I think they try to prepare for this kind of scenario. And I think there are a couple
of people. One man in particular Saifuddin Jaelani, who recruited the two suicide bombers for the
Marriott and Ritz Carlton blasts of the 17th of July this year, he is someone who clearly has
leadership ability, he's very resourceful. He may be the kind of person who could occupy the
position that Noordin has occupied until yesterday.

There are a couple of other people who would also seem to have been privy to a lot of Noordin's
arrangements, but again whether they have the personal qualities, whether they have the charisma
and that planning ability, I think we just have to wait and see.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: The Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has said that Top's death is a
significant blow against terrorism in the region. Is he right?

GREG FEALY: I think undoubtedly. It won't eliminate the terrorist threat but I think it will reduce
it in the short term because Noordin had been so successful in bringing people into his network.

He both persuaded people to leave JI and the leadership of JI for some six of seven years has been
opposed to these kinds of bombing attacks on civilians. So he persuaded people to leave JI and to
join his network. And he was also able to recruit people from other jihadist and Islamist groups
into terrorist operations.

So those two factors mean that his elimination will make it that much harder for these groups to
regenerate and to put together new operations.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Greg Fealy, thank you.

GREG FEALY: My pleasure.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's Dr Greg Fealy, senior lecturer in Indonesian politics at the ANU in
Canberra.

Airbus forecasts airline industry upturn.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: When the world's financial markets collapsed last year it spelled disaster for
the airline industry.

More than 30 airlines closed down as business travellers cancelled trips away and tourists planned
holidays closer to home.

But the European plane manufacturer Airbus says it's now hopeful of a recovery. It's forecasting
nearly 5 per cent growth in worldwide passenger numbers next year and it's planning to build 25,000
planes over the next 20 years.

Ashley Hall reports.

ASHLEY HALL: The International Air Transport Association says the world's airlines have never faced
a more difficult situation.

The economic downturn has savaged the industry causing a deeper and longer slump in travel and
cargo than even the September 11 terrorist attacks.

IATA estimates the global industry will lose about $12.5 billion this year.

But there are signs of improvement. The European plane maker Airbus is forecasting a lift in global
passenger numbers next year of about 5 per cent thanks largely to increased demand in China and
India.

And Airbus's chief operating officer John Leahy says that's a conservative estimate.

JOHN LEAHY: This industry has doubled every 15 years since the dawn of the jet age. Now for most of
that doubling we didn't have India and China and that's where the real growth is coming. So you
could actually say that we're being not optimistic, but pessimistic.

ASHLEY HALL: It's not all rosy forecasts though. Mr Leahy says he's expecting more airlines will
cancel or defer orders in the coming months before things begin to improve.

But over the next 20 years Airbus expects to build 25,000 new planes. That's 750 more than was
forecast two years ago.

John Leahy says the growth will be driven by airlines replacing their ageing fleets and a boom in
low cost carriers.

JOHN LEAHY: There's no two ways about it. The low cost phenomenon has been very important. In
America it got started with Southwest and then Jet Blue and Spirit and many of the others. We've
got about 35 per cent of the domestic market as low cost. We've built up to about the same level in
Europe.

But out in Asia right now it's like 10, 12 per cent so there's a big growth market for the low cost
carriers there.

ASHLEY HALL: Tom Ballantyne is the chief correspondent with Orient Aviation magazine. He says the
Airbus forecasts are in line with the expectations of its main rival Boeing.

TOM BALLANTYNE: Just a couple of days ago the director general of the International Air Transport
Association Giovanni Bisignani, was predicting that it would be a couple of years, it would be 2012
in fact before real growth resumed and the market for airlines began to get back to where it was.

ASHLEY HALL: In simple terms, more plane trips mean more carbon emissions. So how will Airbus deal
with the increasing pressure to cut emissions?

JOHN LEAHY: Keep in mind that aviation is producing 2 per cent of the emissions and generating 8
per cent of the world GDP. That's a very good trade off a lot of other industries can't talk about.
Aviation is also important for developing economies.

We've got to be very careful in Western Europe and the United States with a very developed
infrastructure - as I said two trips a person a year in the US, 1.3 here and 0.05 in India - that
we don't sit back and say they're not allowed to grow like we did. You know, let's hold them down.
Keep them on the trains. Let them take motor scooters.

That's just not fair. They have a right to grow their infrastructure just like we did.

ASHLEY HALL: That may sound like Airbus is talking down the chances it'll play a role in cutting
carbon emissions but Tom Ballantyne says that's not the case. He says the airline industry has a
well developed plan for emission cuts.

TOM BALLANTYNE: The airline industry globally is one of the only sectors, industry sectors, in the
world which has actually set its own carbon targets as it were. It has vowed to become carbon
neutral.

And it's not trying to dodge its responsibilities here. The industry is totally unified in the fact
that it wants a carbon trading scheme, an emissions trading scheme for the airline industry.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's Tom Ballantyne, the chief correspondent for Orient Aviation magazine
speaking there with The World Today's Ashley Hall.

US awaits fallout from missile move

ELIZABETH JACKSON: The American President's decision to scrap plans for a land based permanent
missile defence shield based in Eastern Europe has delighted Russia but potentially alienated
Israel.

Analysts say the new mobile sea based shield network will be considerably cheaper and will serve to
placate Iran.

A short time ago I spoke to Dr Glen Barclay, a visiting fellow at the Research School of Humanities
at the Australian National University and asked him what he made of Barack Obama's decision.

GLEN BARCLAY: Well first thing is that this is an absolutely major concession to the Russians. I
mean the Russians have been, quite rightly, furious at the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe.
They've been even more furious at the development of this proposed missile shield.

To argue that the missile shield was going to be there to defend Europe against Iranian missiles is
absolutely absurd. There's only one place in the world that Iran would be aiming its missiles at
and they'd be doing that only after an initial Israeli attack.

So the Russians could only see this as directed against them. So it's a major concession to the
Russians and Obama will have adopted it very largely as an inducement to the more moderate
nationalists in Russia.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: So what did the Russians think then the real purpose of the shield was?

GLEN BARCLAY: Well the real purpose of the shield was to, as the Russians thought, was if you like
to cover or justify the eastward expansion of NATO against themselves.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: So what advantage now does Barack Obama gain by cancelling the shield?

GLEN BARCLAY: Well I think there are two things, very simply. First of all as Gareth Evans used to
say Russia and the United States have a relationship that neither of them can have with anybody
else in the world. Each of them has the capacity to blow, to destroy the planet.

So the Russian/American relationship is basically the most important in the world and this is a
major, major step towards establishing detente. So that's the first thing.

The second thing is quite seriously, given the extreme economic fragility of the United States,
Obama has to make some cuts in government spending somewhere and the one thing that we knew about
the missile shield was it was ruinously expensive. So this is a way of saving money.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: So this is as much an economic decision as it is a diplomatic one?

GLEN BARCLAY: Well you can certainly say it's a diplomatic decision which has been brought on by
economic circumstances, yes.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: What will it mean for American/Iranian relations?

GLEN BARCLAY: First of all Obama is saying that, I mean he's not being, it's not a question of
being soft on Iran because the new elements in the scheme are designed to counter the missiles
which Iran actually has rather than the one it hasn't got.

However there's also no doubt that the Iranians will see this as a conciliatory gesture by the
United States and this could be a step towards establishing some kind of detente between the United
States and Iran which is certainly what the Obama administration wants.

This brings up another issue. The Israelis will see it as signifying the growing estrangement
between the Obama administration and themselves and the question is whether or not it's going to
encourage the Israelis to make a unilateral strike against Iran. I mean that shot's always been on
the board and this gives it a new element if you like.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: And what's your view on that? Is that more likely now do you think?

GLEN BARCLAY: Given the state of Israeli politics, where nobody's got a sort of clear mandate for
anything, it's actually impossible to tell.

But yes, I would think it's marginally more likely that this will lead to an Israeli strike, which
is not to say that it's actually probable. You know, just that it....

ELIZABETH JACKSON: It's now more likely...

GLEN BARCLAY: It does make it more likely.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Now Poland and the Czech Republic are said to be upset by the decision. Do they
have a genuine grievance now?

GLEN BARCLAY: First of all, given their previous experiences with Russia of course they're going to
be highly, highly upset. It's absolutely, you know, psychological reality.

Is it a practical reality? No there, utterly inconceivable that Russia would make any aggressive
moves in Europe, simple as that. So one can understand their concerns but rationally one can't
possibly share them.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Dr Barclay, how will a sea based shield work?

GLEN BARCLAY: Well very simply and very cheaply. It'll simply mean that the anti-missile or
missiles will be loaded on nuclear submarines which of course can cruise around anywhere and have
the great advantage over the land based shield.

First of all nobody knows where they are, so they're almost invulnerable to a first strike attack.
And secondly because they're mobile they're not actually seen as being directed against anybody in
particular.

Now missile bases in Poland and Czechoslovakia could only be seen as directed against the Soviet
Union.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Dr Glen Barclay, thank you very much.

GLEN BARCLAY: My pleasure.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's Doctor Glen Barclay, a visiting fellow at the Research School of
Humanities at the ANU.

Aung San now denied court access

ELIZABETH JACKSON: It might well be an exercise in futility but Burma's beleaguered opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi is today set to appeal last month's court ruling ordering her to a further
18 months of home detention.

But the 64-year-old Nobel laureate won't even be allowed to sit in on the hearing.

Our South East Asia correspondent Karen Percy reports.

KAREN PERCY: When Rangoon's divisional court resumes this morning the one person who should be
there won't be.

The judges this week ruled that Aung San Suu Kyi will not be allowed into the courtroom to hear the
appeal arguments. Her supporters say this is a breach of the country's own laws.

Jared Genser is Suu Kyi's international counsel based in the United States.

JARED GENSER: There's really no justification for it and unfortunately it just reaffirms the
arbitrary nature of the proceeding.

KAREN PERCY: Since winning the country's last national vote in 1990 Suu Kyi has spent more than 14
years in detention.

The court last month sentenced her to an additional 18 months of house arrest after finding her
guilty of breaching the terms of her house detention when American war veteran John Yettaw came
visiting in May.

Lawyer Jared Genser says the original detention order was in fact drawn up under the old
Constitution which has not been valid since 1988.

JARED GENSER: And so the law itself is no longer valid and that's really the primary basis on which
the appeal is based.

But there is also an argument with respect to the lower court having misinterpreted her detention
order which described that she couldn't communicate with the outside world by phone or mail and
they have argued that the order would not apply to what happened with John Yettaw who showed up
uninvited to her home.

Lastly there is an argument about the judges and the police officers illegally entering her home
to, when they brought Yettaw back to re-enact his crime and saying that authorities had a
requirement to notify her in advance which they did not do.

KAREN PERCY: John Yettaw was also convicted. He was given a jail sentence of seven years hard
labour. But last month in a surprising move he was pardoned and deported.

Jared Genser again.

JARED GENSER: Aung San Suu Kyi herself has said that, you know, she doesn't hold a grudge against
Mr Yettaw for what he did and I think that's probably because the clear reality is that the junta
was going to find some kind of pretextual excuse to continue to detain her.

KAREN PERCY: There hasn't been democratic rule in Burma since 1962 when a military coup deposed the
nation's first elected government.

Next year's election is tipped to further entrench the military. The Government is already making
preparations for the poll with reports that hundreds of candidates have already been selected for a
new national politics party. They are mostly military men of course.

This is Karen Percy reporting for The World Today.

ACCC likely to approve coal port deal

ELIZABETH JACKSON: The competition regulator the ACCC says it's likely to approve a new agreement
over coal loading arrangements at Newcastle.

ACCC chairman Graeme Samuel says the agreement forged between the New South Wales Government, the
port operator and coal producers including BHP Billiton gives certainty to the industry.

Graeme Samuel told our finance reporter Sue Lannin it's possible the deal will cut shipping queues
at the port.

GRAEME SAMUEL: It is looking like we will approve the reinstatement of the interim authorisations
that were there to try and manage the queues at the port and to enable the parties to proceed
towards putting in place the long term ship or pay contracts that are an integral part of this long
term solution.

SUE LANNIN: Do you think the agreement will reduce shipping queues off the port of Newcastle?

GRAEME SAMUEL: It will provide for increased capacity and thus the ability for ships to, rather
than sit in a queue, to come through to the ports, take the coal that's coming from the Hunter
Valley coal mines and then move it into export.

That's what's been needed for some time now. But of course no investor was ever going to invest in
expanded capacity until they had at least some assurance that their investment would earn a
reasonable return; that is would be paid for either by ships using it or else by parties saying
we'll pay for it if we don't have the necessary requirements to use the capacity.

They will sign long term what are called "ship or pay" contracts; that's contracts to either have
ships use the capacity or else pay for it in any event. That will provide the certainty that
investors need to expand the capacity of the port.

SUE LANNIN: Now do you think that this agreement will hold? There's so many competing producers
involved.

GRAEME SAMUEL: We've only seen the bare bones of the agreement as was put to us last evening but
I'd have to say to you that the impression that we get, particularly in discussions with the New
South Wales Government, is that this is an agreement that is binding on the parties. It does take
the parties a long way forward now in terms of the implementation of a long term solution.

There's always a slip betwixt cup and lip. If the agreements are in the form that we understand
them to be, and we're only into the very initial sort of review and consultation phase, but if they
are in the form I think there's every expectation that what we've now taken is the big step needed
towards the long term solution with Port Waratah.

SUE LANNIN: Now as you said there is hope that it will increase capacity at the port but the issue
is also about trains. There's not enough rail links or trains going to the port.

GRAEME SAMUEL: Our authorisation was initially intended to stop the ship queues or to reduce them.
Ultimately we've said, you've got to find a long term solution to this. All that you're doing at
the moment is by putting in place this queue allocation system, this capacity allocation system,
you're just providing a temporary stop-gap measure, but you're not providing for a long term
solution. And you're actually reducing the overall ability for the Hunter Valley coal mines to
export their coal.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's the chairman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission,
Graeme Samuel, speaking to our reporter Sue Lannin.

Bushfire survivors join the circus

ELIZABETH JACKSON: When 173 people died and thousands of homes were burned down in the Victorian
bushfires this year Australians donated hundreds of millions of dollars to the bushfire appeal
fund.

Most of the money has been spent rebuilding houses and providing people with essential goods and
services but today the money is also being used to lift the spirits of school students who survived
the fires. They're going to a circus.

Simon Lauder reports.

(Circus music)

SIMON LAUDER: The colour and fanfare is a world away from Black Saturday. But this circus musical
would be without drum player Jed McIntosh if he hadn't have had his priorities straight on the 7th
of February.

JED MCINTOSH: We live in (inaudible) West and we actually moved, we moved out before because the
fire were coming our way. I'm in a brass band and we had their trailer at our house and we actually
just piled all the stuff into the trailer and just took off.

SIMON LAUDER: That quick action saved the drums but Jed McIntosh and his family lost their house.
The 12-year-old says being involved in a state education department production which has just
opened in Melbourne has been a good distraction from the trauma of the fires.

JED MCINTOSH: I mean it's not anyone's cup of tea getting your house burnt down but like the first
few days after stuff happens you get all depressed and everything. But, I'm not saying forget about
what happened but just look to the good things.

SIMON LAUDER: And does escapism help as well?

JED MCINTOSH: Yes, yeah, it very helps to have a distraction and stuff.

SIMON LAUDER: The head of the Victorian Bushfire Reconstruction and Recovery Authority, Christine
Nixon, is hoping the lively portrayal of the life of American showman PT Barnum will lift the
spirits of 1000 school students from bushfire affected areas who have come to Melbourne to see the
show today.

CHRISTINE NIXON: What I've watched in many of the communities in the fires is that a chance for
them to have a break away from the darkness sometimes, the winter that people have been going
through.

And so this occasion is so much light and so much fun. You can't underestimate the difference it
can make to people, just to be able to get out, a chance to meet other people who've had similar
circumstances and have a bit of fun.

SIMON LAUDER: Ms Nixon has been travelling around the bushfire affected towns since the day of the
fires. She says thousands of school children were left traumatised by the fires and a day at the
circus is part of the healing process.

CHRISTINE NIXON: It's just not going to be sort of a short term thing. It's going take some time.
And young people that I've been talking to are gradually coming to terms with what happened.

SIMON LAUDER: Are students in different age groups generally affected in different ways?

CHRISTINE NIXON: Yes they are. The younger students, different effect. In some cases we're seeing
them recover more quickly. Teenagers don't seem to want to talk about it a lot and so we've got to
find different ways and this is perhaps one of them.

SIMON LAUDER: How extensive is any counselling that's happening? What's happening apart from taking
kids to the circus, that kind of thing?

CHRISTINE NIXON: We're doing more than taking kids to the circus. We have about nearly 400 case
workers who've been assigned to work with families and individuals across the whole of the State in
the fire affected areas.

We also have school counsellors who've been put in place. We've got the YMCA who've been given
responsibility for significant use of the bushfire funds to be able to run camps and other
occasions.

And there are lots of private organisations, lots of different groups who are coming together. And
we're also hiring youth workers in the councils to be able to meet with young people. So there's a
lot of resources.

SIMON LAUDER: After long bus journeys from all over Victoria the students arrived at Melbourne's
comedy theatre this morning for a matinee performance.

Year 5 student from Churchill, Vanessa, isn't sure what to expect, but is glad to be among others
who have similar experiences.

VANESSA: We were a kilometre away from one of the fires which was at the tip and the sun went all
red. It was very scary.

SIMON LAUDER: What's it been like since then? Has it been hard just reliving those memories?

VANESSA: Yeah. I feel sorry for the people that haven't got homes and stuff like that.

SIMON LAUDER: And what are you hoping to see today?

VANESSA: Um, I don't know.

SIMON LAUDER: As he prepares for his performance Jed McIntosh has this advice.

JED MCINTOSH: Yeah, just take up a distraction. Learn a musical instrument, you know maybe drums or
anything. Just think about the future and the good things to come instead of the bad things.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Simon Lauder reporting.

Kiwis bowled over by match-fixing claim

ELIZABETH JACKSON: To New Zealand now and there are allegations of match-fixing and corruption in
sport. But it's not Kiwi cricket players in trouble; it's some of the country's best known lawn
bowlers.

The New Zealand men's four is accused of deliberately losing at last month's Asia-Pacific
Championships.

The bowlers have hit back saying the whole sport of lawn bowls is corrupt and management in New
Zealand is only concerned about making money.

Our New Zealand correspondent Kerri Ritchie reports.

BOWLS COMMENTATOR: Gary Lawson with his second pink bowl. (Applause) Good start to New Zealand.
They pick up a three on the first...

KERRI RITCHIE: Forget pristine white uniforms. New Zealand's best lawn bowlers wear black and
they're fiercely competitive.

Kerry Clark is the chief executive of Bowls New Zealand.

KERRY CLARK: We're pretty proud of our reputation both on and off the bowling green. That is a fair
statement, yep.

KERRI RITCHIE: But New Zealand's best four male lawn bowlers are today fighting to save their
reputations. They're accused of match fixing and across the Tasman it's all over the TV news.

EXTRACT FROM TVNZ NEWS RPOERT: Has New Zealand's proud bowls history been tainted forever?

KERRI RITCHIE: World Bowls had lodged a complaint that the four Kiwis deliberately under-performed
in a match against Thailand at the Asia-Pacific Championships in Malaysia last month.

New Zealand's loss meant Canada didn't make the playoffs.

Kerry Clark says Bowls New Zealand is taking the match fixing allegations very seriously.

KERRY CLARK: In the scheme of things it would be regarded as an upset.

KERRI RITCHIE: But one of the players accused of match fixing, Gary Lawson, is livid. In an
interview with Television New Zealand this morning he lashed out at the bosses of lawn bowls and
said this investigation is a witch hunt.

GARY LAWSON: The New Zealand coach, he's the guy that's actually created this drama, eh?

INTERVIEWER: Dave Edwards?

GARY LAWSON: Yeah, I mean you know, to be fair he should be charged with impersonating being a
coach. I mean we won the world championships. We're the number one country in the world. And they
get $1.3 million and the players get $10,000 of that. I don't care if I don't play again eh.

KERRI RITCHIE: Kerry Clark is worried the allegations will leave a black mark against New Zealand's
bowling name.

KERRY CLARK: We haven't as a national body had to investigate anything like this before.

KERRI RITCHIE: Were you shocked when you heard about this Mr Clark?

KERRY CLARK: Yes, certainly was. We are taking it seriously and we're dealing with it in terms of
our constitution which does have a misconduct provision in there where misconduct is defined as
including deliberately losing or attempting to lose a game of bowls or playing unfairly.

KERRI RITCHIE: Match fixing has destroyed the careers of cricketers but Kerry Clark says it's far
too early to say whether it could do the same in lawn bowls.

A judicial hearing is expected to be held in the next fortnight.

This is Kerri Ritchie in Auckland reporting for The World Today.