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(generated from captions) Olga crossing the coast. A to our Olga crossing the coast. A high which will allow a to our south will move tomorrow

move over us and then there currently over central NSW to

showers. Rainfall has been a possible of afternoon

pretty ordinary to say the these expected least so far this year and

Wednesday onwards aren't much. these expected showers from

For Australia Day around the great southern land: Virginia, I've got some sad news - the bush picnic was going to be held at Titinbilla tomorrow has cancelled due to a dinky di Australian reason, a total ban because of the Australian reason, a total fire

conditions but the ban because of the bushfire

particularly as you'll be are still on. That's good news,

there. I'll cross live night so if you want to have a at Commonwealth park there. I'll cross live to Mark

chat to him be my guest. That's ABC News. Stay with us for the '7.30 Report' coming up You can find the latest headlines 24 hours a day at ABC online. I'll be back with a news update at 8:30. Until goodnight. news update at 8:30. Until then

Closed Captions by CSI

Tonight on the 7:30 Report

- the first of a special

five-part series on the most

crucial challenge facing the

nation. 443,000 people are

being added to the Australian

continent every year. With

Australia's population expected

to hit 35 million by 2050, can

the country cope? Why do we

have to cram this coastal strip

with tens of millions more

people? I'd like to see 100

million.

This Program is Captioned

Live. Welcome to the program.

It's good to be back after a

summer break. This week we're

getting our teeth into an issue

every Australian has a stake in

- how big can we afford to grow

as a nation. For that matter,

can we afford not to grow? If

as Treasury forecast suggest we

face a population explosion of

60% or more over the next four

decades, is it going to be

possible to manage that in an

environment ally sustainable

way without pre siding over a

corrosive decline in both urban

and regional lifestyles? For

many, life in the bigger cities

is not too flash as it is.

There's not an enormous There's not an enormous level

of trust in government, at any

level, but particularly State Government. Over the next few

days we will take a look at how

an increased population an increased population is

likely to reshape Australia -

where it will be acome dated,

how government will cope with

the pressures on all those

fundamentals like jobs,

transport, housing, food,

energy and water, health and

education. And how we're going

to maintain social cohesion

through the next wave of

immigration. - immigration. The

Rudd Government supports a "big

Australia" and the Prime

Minister will face some of the

questions we're posing in this

series later in the week.

Tonight, Matt peek bsh - sh

Peacock starts with an

overview.

The current population

growth in Australia is

unprecedented. There really

does need to be a wake-up call

in our big cities. If we don't

manage this, then it's chaos.

And we pay the price. We can

do it. Whether we do it fast

enough to stop enough people

suffering is a question.

Australia in 2010, with 22

million people and rising

rapidly. Just over every minute

of the day a new person is

added to the country's total

according to Prime Minister population. Growth that's good,

Kevin Rudd on this program last

year. Is tha time for year. Is this going to be a

time for national leadership to

come well and truly to the fore

across the whole spectrum of

problems thrown up by

that? First of all, let me just

say I actually believe in a big Australia. I haik no apology

for that. I think it's good

news that our population is

growing. In fact, our population is growing much

faster than the US, Britain and

the EU, faster even than many

developing countries. Our

population growth is certainly

twice that of China's and substantially greater than that

of Indonesia. Today's

extraordinary growth is being

driven firstly by more babies,

a development that occurred

even before the baby bonus. But

the country's natural increase

is outstripped by

immigration. And that, in

particular, has been boosted by

a recent surge in overseas

students. Mainly from India and

China. Population expert

growth is Bernard Salt says this kind of

unprecedented: 443,000 people

are being added to the

Australian continent every

year. In the late 1990s we used

to average around 200,000 per

year. We have upped the birth

rate, Generation X, producing

about 50,000 more babies per year now than we did in the

year 2000. And the level of

overseas migration has sky

rocketed from an average of

about 100,000 per year in the

1990s to around 240,000 now. It's growth the Howard Government started and the Rudd

Government wants to continue,

especially to fill the gap left

by ageing baby boomer, soon to

retire from the work force. I

think along with climate change

this is THE most substantial

intergenerational challenge, challenge we face. It's an

it's an economic challenge,

it's a social challenge, and it

goes to the core in the end of

the type of country we want to

be. By 2050, Treasury

estimates Brisbane and Perth's

population will likely double

in size. Sydney and Melbourne

will become cities of 7 million

people. By then, Australia's

population will have soared by population d by 60%,

60%, to 35 million. I think

there will be not 35 million

but probably 55 million. Harry

Triguboff came to Australia

over 60 years ago and he is now

one of the country's most rich

est men. The Sydney sigh

Skyline is dominateded by his

Meriton high rise developments.

In this rare television

interview he warns that without

population growth the economy

will stall as id it did in

Japan I would like to see

1,200 million because I think

we will have many things to do we will have many things te

here besides drilling holes and

selling coal. Our agriculture

has to be huge. Our desalination will be fantastic. Our rivers must flow

the right way. It will all have

to be developed. But others see

growth differently, including a

late convert who made his

millions from growth

entrepreneur Dick smi. Now it's

easy to make money when you're growing. Harry would know when

you're not growing it's harder

to make money, but it's

possible. And one day

capitalism has to grow. We want

work forever. Hair yir is

taking the easy way out but I

think say of your grandchildren, mate, because

they are going to have the

difficulties that we're creating. A big Australia

might destroy the country's

fragile and already stressed

environment, argue conservationists, amongst them the former NSW Premier Bob Carr A bigger Australia

doesn't mean deeper soils, it

doesn't mean larger river flow,

it doesn't mean bigger

rainfall, we're only biginer

one sense, the increase in the

total number of humans crammed

into the narrow coastal strip.

Australia's post war boom

in immigrantses and babies has

provided another reason to

boost the current population.

Those baby boomers are now

reaching retirement age without

replacement workers claim s

Adelaide University's demographer Professor Graeme

Hugo, the economy will

nosedive. 43% of our work force

is made up of baby beerms. They will be leaving the work force

over the next two decades and

replacing them will require

population growth, it will

require immigration. If we

don't get this right, then we

don't have enough tax to fund

the retire. To baby beefrms an

all hell break s loose, our our

cities break down, there's not

enough water or power. You

would have to run massive

immigration for decades before

you have the slightest impact

on the ageing of the

population. Let's face it. The

population is & ageing. We've

got to get people to stay in

the work force longer, to work

more productively for longer.

What's frustrating is going

past this pub where everyone is

having a drink and enjoyling

thes and we're stuck in the

traffic. Already warn the urban

plan terse nation's cities are

stretched. Airport worker Steve winds his way through

Brisbane's gridlock. His

average trip takes more than average trip takes more than an

hour but on a bad day the journey can stretch on and

on. Object two hours. Probably

max two hours. Once three

hours. We are at risk of seeing

increasingly dysfunctional

cities and some Australian

cities like Sydney, for

example, or say Melbourne we're

starting to see fragmentation

and break breakdown of the

transport systems an increasing frustration for the residents

of those cities rying to get

around. More of the angry

scenes that have already

blighted some of our cities

could result from increased

population pressure unless some

of these frustrations are

eased, according to Griffivity

University's Dr Jago

Dodson: Most of these people

will be going to our city,

needsing housing, they will be

travelling around the cities so

our transport system also need

to cope with that growth. We

will have to provide nement our

cities and all the other forms

of infrastructure - hospitals,

educational facilities, we're

going to have to improve as going to has well. Wit well. Without these we could face urbane disintegration,

warns Curtin University's

Professor Peter Newman. If we

don't adapt and become more

resilient, then we head down

the track of collapse and there

are modern cities that are

still heading down that

track. US cities like Philadelphia or Detroit failed

to adopt dapt to their changed

circumstances to their cost.

And if Australia's population

continues to boom, then

construction of the

infrastructure needed for new

people has to start now,

believes Adelaide University's

Professor Mike Young. Most of

the decisions around, for

example, where you locate a

sewage treatment plafrnt, where

you locate the big pipes, are

made with the expectation that

they will last 100 years. If

the vision is to take Australia

to 35 million people in the

next 20 to 30 years, then it

has to be planned now and has

to be planned with great care

and has to be climate proofed

as well. - change proofed as

prel. - climate change

Professor proofed as well. It

is tt l not the first great population boom in Australia

and the changes to our city's

landscapes were just as

profound 100 years ago. For

some, it's just progress. For

others, a step too far. I don't

see any great problem in

Australians or in Melburnians,

Sydneysider, move ing from 4

million to 7 million: I think

it can be organised. It needs

to be plands. I needs to be

prudent: It needs to be

appropriate growth. But I don't

think that it's not doable.

What's wrong with a bit of

space? What's wrong with the

possibility of being alibi to

get to a beach and get on to

the beach? The opportunity of

going for a walk in a national going for a walk in a natik less park less than an hour's drive

from the centre of the city?

What is wrong with these

things? What is wrong with

having headlands still in a

natural state? What the wrong

with having magnificent coastal

parks. Why do we have to cram

this coastal strip with tens of

millions more people? The main

message is don't fear the

population debate. This is an opportunity to help craft our

future and if you're not

involved the future will just

take you a way anyway. That

report from Matt peacock and

tomorrow ieth we will look at

the specific challenge force

transport and housing. Just a

short time ago the Prime Minister announced the

Australian of the Year for 2010. Coinciding of course with

Australia Day tomorrow. He's

not a household name. He is not

a celebrity. But psychiatrist

Patrick McGorry is a leading international researcher, internat clinician

clinician and mental health re

former. Professor McGorry is

executive director of Origin

World Health, a world renowned

mental health organisation for

young people based in Melbourne

that has put Australia at the

forefront of innovation in the

prevention and treatment of

mental illness. And Professor

Patrick McGorry joins me now

from the award ceremony at Parliament House in

Canberra. Patrick McGorry,

congratulations on the award

and to the extent that you've

had a chance to reflect on it,

what does it mean to you? What

do you take from it? Thanks

very much. Well, I think it's

really a coming of age of the

mental health field. I feel a

bit symbolic of that because

we've seen great growth of

awareness in recent years

amongst the general public

about the need for about the need for better

mental health care, even about

recognising mental ill health

when it's all around us. And

now we're poised for I think a

new era of engineering,

reengineering of our Mental

health system and I am hoping

that is what will follow

now. You've seen a lot of

change in the mental health

field in theeer nearly 30

years. You've been an agent for

change. What are the big

changes you've seen,

particularly in regard to

treatment for the young and recognition of the illness in

the young? Yeah, I think that

the issue that we hadn't really

grasped until recently is as

well as having effective

treatments which we certainly

have these days in the mental

health fields, the timing of

treatment we got it completely

wrong. We were not putting any

emphasis at owl or energy into creating ways for particularly

young people but even people at

any stage of life to actually

get timely treatment. The treatment when the treatment

might have a chance or a

fighting chance of working. We

often tree even not at all or

too late. The unmet need in the

mental health area is double

the level in the physical

health area even now and so

we've had a lot of awareness

raising but we haven't had enough action in building the

new system s of care to provide

access to the right

groups. It's your view that the

mental health of young people

is actually getting worse. Why

do you think that is? We do you think that is? We know

that 75% of Mental health

problems an disorders are

appear by age 25. So it is the

peak period of prevalence in children, particularly

adolescents and young adults.

There are indications around

the world and within Australia

this is actually getting worse

and it's a paradox because physical health is improving

while the mental health

particularly of the young is

getting worse. Richard ekersly,

the well known ANU commentator has called young people the

miner s canary of society

because they're probably

showing up the unhealthy parts

in the mental health sense that

are affecting us all to some

degree. Why is it and I know

that background noise must be distrabilityings, professor,

but if we can make the best of

it, why is it that we're most

likely to suffer mental illness

between childhood and early

adult hold? Why is that? The

problems are the rock band next

door. They're quite good, by 2

way. As you say, 12 to 25 is

the peak period. We've got a

developing during this period problems brain, actively drop

of life. We have massive

psychologic changes psychological and social

changes around the person, it's

very challenging period of life

and there are many ways it

could go wrong, particularly

with people with

vulnerabilities on a biological

or psychological basis

frommerier on. It is no wonder

that it's the peak periods of

vulnerability and the emergence

of these problems. But that

peak period is dropping where I

think it was not so long ago a

peak period in the late 20s

it's now much younger: Yeah. I

think that is true. The onsets

are coming a bit earlier. And

also this whole period of life

has evoxed over the last 30 or

40 year, it's a much more

complex and de sin cronist

period of maturation than when

I was a teenager. People take

longer to grow up. We have this

period of emerging adulthood

before people being fully

pledged adults. So the period

of vulnerability is longer and

the risks are greater. So while

we've got the elements around

us that are causing us to be

exposed to life much earlier,

that is out of sinwick our

emotional develop - zing with

our emotion al development is

environment - the reason for that a problem? I think the

the rise in problems is

environmental because our genes

haven't changed. So the

vulnerability would be there

but our environments these days

seem to be more effective in

bringing out these signs of

mental ill health and mental

illness as well. You are saying

that the health systems are

currently are poorly designed

for what is happening. What

should be happening? What

should be happening that

isn't? It's only very recently

that we were in a 19th century

model of care and we've just

struggled to find our way out

of. That we've really created

very much a base camp of community mental health

services. They haven't been

proper lir invested in or

further evolved beyond that

base camp. And there are many

ways in way they need to be

restructure and re-engineered.

The one I focus on in my career

has been the teenage young adult period. There are many

other examples. Community

mental health al health cannot

grow and flourish under current

med el of health system we.

Have we is need a radical rejig

and restructure of it and that

might be facilitiated by the

more broad spectium mental

health reforms on the table at

the moment. Is is your own

profession ready for change -

kind of change that you think

profession willing to embrace is necessary? Is your own

this change? I think Australia

as a country is perfectly

poised to really drive this

sort of reform internationally.

mental health system in We are very innovative in the

Australia. We have a track

record of that but we don't

have a track record of

systematic roll out of our

innovation and advance.

Australia is very well poised

to do. This but the right

support from Government and

particularly with the right

support of the whole of the

Australian community. Because

50% of us will develop a mental

health problem at some point in

the life span. I use the slogan

every me and every you because

I think it is true, at some

point we are all going to need

it one way or

another. Professor McGorry,

you're going to have plenty of

opportunity to highlight opportunity to highlight these

issues throughout the year and

once again congratulations for

your award. Thank you. Thanks

very much, Kerry. Thank you. As tennis players continue to vie

for glory at the Australian

Open this week, some marketing

representatives are quietly

working the corridors in search

of support for what they see as

a bold new vision for the game.

A World Cup of tennis. It's

been put on the table by a man

better known for his AFL

skills. But former Essendon

champion James Hird says his

company has been working on the

con#1e79 for more than 15

months and has discussed with

it the sport's governing body.

Trad traditionalists fear the

newcomer could de rail the

century-old Davis Cup tourn.

But James Hird has told Mary

Gearin that a tennis World Cup

could capture a new, younger audience, without threat

enyging the traditional game. - threatening the traditional

game. Dynamic, exciting, we're

proposing a tennis World

Cup. Similar to a football

World Cup. Or a rugby World

Cup. 32 nations from all

around the world. Focussed and

playing the tournament in one

venue. Bringing the whole

world and the eyes of the world

into a nation's based tennis

event. In terms of world

tennis, the mild mannered

businessman talking up a big

new concept has come from nowhere. This is in fact James

Hird, former AFL champion

player and captain for Essendon

just two years into his

retirement. What people might

not know is he's been working

for several years as an

international marketing

consultant and now he's wanting to transform another sport with

his vision of a World Cup of

tennis. Can we do something

that creates even more fans

which creates more money, which

means more money goes back into

the sport which means more kids

playing tense and tennis gets

bigger and bigger. That's been

the example with Twenty20

cricket. It's not killed Test cricket. It is still a

fantastic sport but it's

brought in a whole new consumer

and helped cricket in the

ends. Hird is a co partner in

gem ba, an international

entertainment marketing

company. In their n th case

their client is tince and he

wants his tennis to be a match

maker between player, authority, TV networks sponsors

an investors to create a

biennial - biennial tournament

with a new, snap ier format. If

you run a World Cup over 10

days you can't have mens ties

that go for three or four

hours.Sh What We're removing the advantage, so deuce point

and the next point is the

winning point and the tiebreak

tiebreakers are down to the

best of fife. So there's a

nine-point tiebreak. So what

that allows is that the game is

reduced to about two hours and

20 minutes at its maximum. So

this is over 10 days with three

players allowed to play within

one match, still a five-set

match but the players can be

substituted on or off as the

coach likes. Ghemba

representatives have been pork working quietly around the

circuit for about 15 months and

for the rest of the week they

will continue to talk to

players involving in the

Australian Open. Already a few

top players have spoken in

support of the concept. But

it's drawn flak from

self-proclaimed pra traditionalists and

sceptics Am I old fashioned at

44? I don't think so. I like

the pure form of the game of

tennis. So you think this is a

gimmick? Um, I am wondering

whether it's just drummed up

publicity. Pat Cash doesn't

like to talk about format

changes to tennis either, in particular the talk of

substitution. The biggest load

of rub irn I've heard of my

life. Subbing. It's moving down

the way of the Harlem Globetrotters. What I read was

being proposed, it's not going

to get through. to get through. The International Tennis Federation

is made up of countries all

over the world and then it's

not going to say that's a good

idea we will do it. It's not

that easy. If they were to

establish this, it would affect

the Davis Cup. So I think - I

hope that some sort of

compromise can be made because

I think the name Davis Cup

should be kept in the

forefront. Davis Cup

champion Pat Cash thinks

players might be saying yes to the World Cup idea because

the World Cup idea because the

year-long schedule for the

Davis Cup where players also

represent their country is

simply so demanding. Think

think top players are spoilt.

Not all of them. But they are

spilt for - spoilt for money

and choices. They say they

can't fit the tennis into - the

Davis Cup into their schedule.

I would say stop playing

exhibition matches. Some top

players have been increasingly

selective about their Davis Cup

involvement. America's James

Blake and Andy Roddick and

Britain's Andy Murray have all

pulled out of up coming ties,

citing scheduling or injury

worries. And networks in the UK

and US are dropping their

coverage. Long-term correspondent Neil Harman

believes the World Cup concept

will be widely welcomed in the

community. In its current

position, players who have more

interest in the grand slam

scheme of things are saying now

Davis Cup is a bit too much of

a burden. And whereas it still

remains a great competition. I don't think anyone is looking

to kill it off. People are

looking to refine it, modernise

it. But if the top players

aren't playing nit, that's got

to be a concern for people in

the sport. How could it not

compromise the Davis Cup if it

will attract top players to

playing that tournament which

would be essentially quick and easy compared with the Davis

Cup? I suppose it's how it fits

in with the du, whether it's

part of the Davis Cup or not. I can't answer that question

until we work out where it is

in the calendar and how it fits

into the shed you. So there's a possibly that the Davis Cup

could be a feeder

competition? Not at the moment.

There's not that possibly

because the ITF would not, I

wouldn't think, would help that

as happening. But time will

tell how it works in the tennis

calendar. James Hird says he is

not seeking to form a breakaway

event. The company has already met with the International Tennis Federation, the sports

governing body. Has the ITF

actually been responsive? A.

ITF hasn't been totally

negative towards it. They're

very concerned about their own

tournament and they wouldn't

like to see something like this

upset ta Davis Cup. John

Newcombe sees the tennis

authorities as being the

biggest obstacles. We floated

an idea like this 10 years ago

and, you know, the ITF's made

up of basically of amateur

officials and amateur officials

are not known to act like professional businessmen

saying, yes, that's a really

good decision, let's make

it. We've got a concept, a

fantastic idea, we've got

financial support for it. But

the tince family will ultimately decide whether

something like this

works. James Hird will be using

a t blaze of publicity surround

ing the Australian Open to

lift his idea. It's still quite

small, to be honest It's still

a small chance of something

like this getting off the

ground. You're trying to bring

a new format into a very tra al

game that is very successful.

But that small chance is

growing every day . We might be

up to 20 or 30% now and

hopefully by the middle of the

year we will have it over 50. Mary Gearin with that

report. Before we go a quick

taste of tomorrow night's

special report on Australia's

high risephyture. Why a bigger

population is going to change

the face of suburbia.

Australian cities are on

the brink of a major

transformation. We have the

most car dependent country in

the world, with the lowest

urban densities which means we

really spread our people out.

People object to more high

rise. All t debate is over. If

we're going to go for a

population of 35 million by

2050, a whole lot of our cities

will be for high rise. The

environment you see here is set for destruction, total destruction. This sort of

destruction is coming to a

suburb near you, some day. That's the program for

tonight. If you'd like to check

back on any of our stories,

just go to the website

For now, goodnight.

Closed Captions by CSI

'We live in a society that worships youth. On television and magazines, in advertisements and on billboards, what sells and what is sold to us is youth. But in some cultures it is the elders of the community who are valued and whose wisdom is sought. In this series we're going to seek out six prominent elders of our tribe, to see what life has taught them. each over the age of 65, Welcome to The Elders.' GENTLE PIANO MUSIC PLAYS dined with the leaders of her age. 'She has walked with monarchs and Though her family name is considered in the world, one of the most powerful she has lived a life of service. And beneath it all lies a love story has been able to diminish. that not even death A love story that began 80 years ago Dame Elisabeth Murdoch.' for the remarkable Yes. Was it love at first sight? Definitely. where you first met. That remarkable night Still clear to you? Yes, that's right. Yes, absolutely. Can you describe to me that meeting? and we were introduced, Well, we were out at a dance but he didn't even... I was with another escort, so I didn't dance with him,

but I was struck by his strong, strong eyes and I kept sort of looking, seeing, and next day he rang and asked me if I would go out with him

to Portsea. And I said, "Yes," and I got into terrible trouble. My family said, "Nobody should go out with a man so much older than herself," and so forth. I had to tell him, Anyway, next time he asked me to go