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Election 2010: Australia Decides Nine Network -

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(generated from captions) we thought we would cross to Ben

now. Some people are wondering

whether these rivalrys on the panel

are genuine. While John Alexander

was celebrating then the two

members of this side of our panel

were exchanging some very, very

harsh words. I won't repeat them

but I did hear them. It is not put

on at

Delighted. He looks delighted to me. Craig --

Incidentally, the people at Julia

Gillard's party all say there was

very limited applause after Kevin

Rudd spoke and

One --) They are good eyebrows.

Sorry, I can't comment on that.

They are just magnificent. Do you

want to break some numbers down?

One of the things we are looking at

potentially is the Coalition and

Labor, 73, 72 or 73 and 72, with

the five independent. The three who

are already there t Green in

Melbourne and Andrew Wilkie in

Tasmania. So what happens when you

have 72, 73 and five independent.

Someone has to try to get to 76.

Now, Barnaby might have a view on

this, which is the 3 independents

are they going to vote with the

Coalition, are they going to vote

with the party that has the most

seats because they could well hold

the balance? They will go back to

their people and say we are going

to do the best deal for you and if

- no matter which side they pick

they will lose half of her support

immediately. What I found

disingenuous about it, it is always

easy to get in when you say you are

both Arthur and March that and now

they have to make the call. I can

fell you in Tamworth if Mr Windsor

decides he is going to support the

Labor Party that will be the last

election he has to worry about.

Despite the fact that these three

seats are antiLabor, there is a

chance if Labor got 73 and we got

72, there is a strong chance that

those three or two or one of them

would go with the most seats? I

imagine their phones would be

ringing off the support now is we

always supported you because you

are a good person but if you put

the Labor Party back in we will

come down on you like a tonne of

breaks. That is certainly the case

in cattle country and New England.

Tony Windsor discussed a little bit

how they approached it and he said

the stability of the party would be

the first topic he would address,

and the highest votes and the

preferences would come into it. preferences would come into it. In

towns like Tenterfield and Inverell

if you suggested that their vote

was a vote for the Labor Party, it

won't matter what you said it

matters what happens next Can I

just make a comment as someone who

sits in the same house as these

three independents but particularly

wind son and Observingshot they

fall over that they do not vote

more with Labor and the Coalition.

I think it is impossible for anyone

on this panel to pick what they

will do and I think it will depend

on the popular vote across the

country, let alone the seat. I

think that -- We are going to have

to leave it there I can certainly

pick what the people of Inveree,

Tenterfield and -- We will talk to

him shortly and we can ask him.

Let's look how Labor vote has

crashed in crucial areas of Western

Sydney. This is interesting. The

Labor vote is 40.8% to Labor and

Liberal 38.9. That is a swing of

8.8% against the Labor. 5.7% to the

Liberal party. That is a very big

change in Western Sydney. Very big

change. That is very true, Laurie,

and it is is a big hit but at the

same time to be still in front in a

seat like Lindsay after a 25% swing

in the State by election, it shows

that the campaigning of David

Bradbury and the New South Wales

branch has been outstanding. Am'll

ya Adams is in the seat of mac car

their, good evening to you. Good

evening, party time here now I can

tell you. I am here with the

Liberal candidate, Russel Mathieso,

n and more than a 6% swing away

from Labor, 1.3 towards the Liberal,

how are you telling? We are feeling

opt miss fik. We are hoping to get

victory but we are not claiming it

at the present time. Not claiming

it yet, come on, it is a victory?

The Labor Party hasn't give unup.

This is a noionally a Labor seat

which has given you a swing? I

through is a local flavour here, a

lot of people in the local

community were commited to the

Liberal party and winning this seat

and it came object. We had a great

campaign and a great campaign team

and people were excited about

things changes. A lot of people

were feeling the pressure of the

mortgage stress t cost of living,

and people are feeling the pain. So

not quite ready to claim victory

yets but it is looking that way

certainly, another loss for the

Labor Party this evening here in Western Sydney.

Can I just go to you briefly, the

8.8% swing, would you have conceded

even more than that? Are you in a

way happy that some of those seats

aren't going as far as you thought

they would? Look, that is a seat

which takes in Camden, it is is a

Liberal party area and we don't

have a sitting Labor MP so we never

expected to win a seat like that.

Linds say we have been behind in on

Day 1 but to be in front on

election night is remarkable. Green

way, we are just in front there.

The Central Coast is an area which

we at the start of the campaign and

a couple of days ago the Liberal

party said they won that. So in New

South Wales the two states that

have kept news the game is New

South Wales and Victoria. Without

those this campaign would be over.

I think we have Tony Windsor now

who is standing by in New England.

Tony, geech to you. English good

evening to you. Can you hear us? It

is Karl speaking? No. We will try

to re-establish communications with

Tony because a whole lot of people

want to talk to him and see where

his votes are going to go. It is

one of the compelling things if it

is a hung Parliament which it is

looking increasingly likely. Tony,

good evening to you, well done,

first of all. Good evening, thanks

very much. You must be delighted. I

guess the obvious question, apart

from the well dones and the

congratulations is, where are your

votes going to go if it is a hung

Parliament? Well, I think the best

thing most of us could do,

particularly on a Saturday night is

just breathe in for a while and

let's see what happens. There is no

guarantee that it is a hung

Parliament. There is no guarantee

that my particular vote would make

any real difference one way or the

other. I will be sitting down in

the coolness of the day and

actually examining what has

actually happened, and then if in

fact there is a hung Parliament we

will deal with it. I have been in

one before. It is not the end of

the world. In fact, it could be a

very good thing for the Parliament.

Tony, if you are a betting man,

which way would you say it is going

to go at the moment? Well, we have

been more interested in our results

rather than the national ones, but

people have been telling me that it

is close. So, I'm taking that on

board. I haven't been sitting

watching it unfold through the

evening, but it looks close. It

would be close. You know, we are

talking about serious issues here.

If it is is a hung Parliament it is

the stability of the nation. There

are a whole range of things that

need to be looked at and I think we

just need to breathe in and let see

how the numbers unfold and then sit

down and talk with various people

about it. Tony, Ben Oxenbould here.

You and the other two independents

did meet and talk about the

possibility of a hung palm, didn't

you? Yes, Laurie, and what we did

say then is if this scenario did

arise let's at least the three of

us, - and there may be for people -

sit down and tack about it when it

happens. And that's still my advice

and I think the others would

probably agree with that. Let's see

how it unfolds. I the can tell you

one thing, Laurie. -- On radio this

morning I tell you one thing,

Laurie. -- Tell me. Keep going,

Tony. I am getting -- You were

going to tell me something. I will

tell you one thing though, I won't

be taking any advice from Barnaby

Joyce in terms of what I should and

shouldn't be doing. I just want to

know -- They want to take him off

the script. Do you think there is

any position thablt the any of the

independents would accept the

speecher ship. I can't speak for

anyone else but I won't. It is a

good job. I mate be a good job but

I like the job I have and that is

representing the people of new

glaebd and I won't be bought off

with some sort of speakership or

some part time cabinet job.

Would your consis units tolerate

you supporting a Labor government?

Well, let's see how it unfolds. As

I said, I would absolutely take no

notice of what Barnaby's Joyce's

advice would be. It is is a crucial

question Tony and you should give a

straight answer. Would you support

a Labor government, "yes" or "no",

give a straight answer. I don't

have to talk to you Barnaby. I will

refer to my people and make -- You

can't make one can. Peter Costello

would like to ask you a yes. First

of all congratulations on your e

elect shin. Can I ask you this.

There is three of you,, three

independent, can you manage the

three of you going different ways

or do you envisage that you will

all go the same way if it is a hung

Parliament? Well, we haven't talked

about that. I will keep my council

to myself until such time that it

actually means something. There is

a long way to go in terms of the

accounting - there is a whole range

of different scenarios that are out

there. You know, I haven't - I

don't have the right to speak for

the other two, they will speak for

themselves. I represent one seat,

they represent other seats. There

is no deal or group session. We

agreed to just talk about it if in

fact this sort of scenario came

about, and that is all I intend to

do. I don't give an undertaking

that I agree with them or disagree

with them. So you all reserve your

right to go your independent way.

So it is feasible that some might

join the Coalition and some might

not? Well, that's - that is quite

feasible. I can only speak for

myself. I will do what my judgment

is at the time, and then they will

as well. If the three people agree,

the three country represents, they

may or may not, but I'm not losing

any sleep over that at the moment

until we now just how the numbers

unfold. Just one other question,

Tony, would you consider having

discussions with an independent if

an independent gets elected in Dennison, would you consider having

discussions with a Green if a Green

gets elected in Melbourne? You are

breaking up there a bit. I was

asking -- Instead of having

discussions with -- With a green

who looks like he is been elected

in Melbourne, or an independent in

Dennison, would you envisage making

a phone call to either of them? Why

not. They are duly elected members

of the Parliament. This isn't about

who is who in the zoo, this is

about the running of the country. I

am quite happy to talk to anybody.

I have a good relationship with Bob

Brown and others in the building. I

don't - I am an independent, I

don't have to play this

philosophical farce that goes on

week in, week out. I am more than

happy to talk to anybody who wants

to talk to me. As long as it means

an improved situation for the

country. The most important issue

here is stability of governance.

Otherwise - and I know people are

concocting all sorts of

arrangements where independents and

others might hold the Parliament to

power. The first thing that would

happen is that the government of

the day or the Govenor-General

would go back to the poles. This is

not armed rob by that is taking

place, this is a quirk of numbers

and I think we have to sit down and

coolie work through it and see if

there is a scenario, if in fact it

is a hung Parliament that can

actually work. If it is a scenario

that won't, well, people get

another vote and I am sure they

will enjoy that. I have to say,

Tony, Australia is probably not

ready to go back o back to the

poles again after tonight. I think

that would be right. I don't think that would be right. I don't think

we could cope with another election

campaign. No, we would go bad. Nick

la has one question for you. Tell

low, it was just a comment it

wasn't going to be a question, I

was going to say I think Tony is

absolutely shown what I was saying

before about him and about Rob,

they are not anybody's people. They

are going to wait and see as you

would expect an independent to do

and I think it is absolutely right

to be letting the night go a little

bit further and talking about these

things in a calm way. All I was

really going to follow up, I think

true independents are going to do

that. Tony is in that camp. What

she is going to say you are extreme

I will hand some and she is

prepared to have lunch with with

you. Congratulations again on the

win and we will

win and we will see you soon. We

are going to get an update o on

where things sit at this point. If

you look at the number the Labor on

67 and the Coalition on 6 and the

three end pen dens there. 13 still

in doubt. Let's get an update on

the figures in WA there. Some

numbers going through there. There

have been quite a lot counted in

western as. We can see in Hasluck,

the Liberal candidate

The greens have 12% of the vote,

Labor 37 and the Liberal 43. That

is a 3.1% swing against the Labor

Party but a still swing against the Liberals.

Liberals. On those figures Wjatt

would become the first indigenous

member of the House of

Representatives. It is a fairly

significant appointments having. We

have the 20-year-old boy who who

has won his seat. We have the first

indigenous and we have our first

Green in the seat of Melbourne. And

we have the first woman Prime

Minister tipped out of Parliament.

And possibly Eden-Monaro may not be

the bellwether it possibly was. I

think we have some numbers in for swan as

So the Liberals have nearly So the Liberals have nearly 48% of

the vote, Labor 35, the Greens 11.

It is a big swing against the Labor

Party, 4.5%. The mining tax in Western Australia is certainly

biting there. The Liberal on those

figures would take that seat. We

will get to the discussion on that?

Just a sec but Alison is on the

tally room floor. Hi, thanks Karl,

I do have Warren here with me. You

are having a pretty good night. You

have had an 8% swing to you, all 9

sitting members have had really big

swings and you are looking at

picking up with seats, how are you

feeling? Certainly the nationals

have done well, all of the members

have -- We are being interrupted.

We have just had Bob Brown walk on

the the tally room floor. Did he

win the election or something? He

is getting a heroes welcome. We

might go over and have a listen to

Bob. Do you find if we come back to

you OK. Has it been a night of

celebrations for the Greens, do you

think? Absolutely. There he is. That was a

That was a real heroes welcome. And

band band in Melbourne, there is

quite a chance remains of the

Greens winning in Dennison. In the

Senate, up 5% to 14%. Great to be

with such a happy crowd, up to 14%.

It looks like we have have nine

Senators in the new Parliament, a

party room of 10. From where I sit

that is a Green slide and we are in

this to make this nation much

happier, much more loving as Adam

said, and much more responsive to

the people and the huge

opportunities in the future. A

couple of days ago, a baby whale

was born in the Derwent for the

first time in 200 clears. Two days

later we are seeing the real birth

of a new political movement which

is headed to much greater things in

the future but which today has come

of age in a parliamentary sense as

the undisputed third party in the

Parliament with a bigger compliment

of people than ever before. Let me

give this commitment frpt we will -

we will use this vote from the Australian people responsibly. We

will use it to give this nation

leadership. We will use it to

innovate. We will use it to get a

much better dividend for education.

We will use it to get a much better

public health system. We will use

it - and I note Warren H Williams

fantastic vote of 16% in the

Northern Territory - to get a much

better deal for indigenous

Australians. To save the forest,

and to get a carbon price which is

business wants and which will give

business the future ash suredness

that it needs in an able of climate

change. We will use it to look

after farm lands in Australia. The

National Party got 12% of the votes

tonight, we got 12% of the votes.

So it is a very, very wonderful

night. On a vote for vote basis the

Greens on 12% would be having 17

seats in the lower house, and it is

time we moved to proportional

representation, so that everybody's

vote is equal in this country. One

person, one vote, one value. I

thank the people of Australia. I

congratulation both the Coalition

team with Mr Abbott and the Labor

team with Prime Minister Gillard.

Congratulate all candidates and all

parties that took part. I also want

to, whilst she has taken Gary

Humphreys below the quota, Lyn is

now a very outside chance in the

Senate but she just won the biggest

state or provincial Green vote

anywhere in the world, topping the

Belgium phlegmish Greens anywhere

in the world. We will leave Bob

Brown there. He has a whole list --

he is going to go through the whole

lot. Looking at the numbers with

Coalition on 67 and Labor on 67. We

are inching closer, but I don't

think we are inching closer to the

result. Probably a good time for

everyone to get an up date on where

you think things are at. The

greater number of people ever voted

before the election, they voted

yesterday and the days before, but

if you voted in if own seat they

are counting those tonight and most

of them have already been counted

and that mean the number of counts

Monday on wards is lower than

normally. What that means is this.

At this stage I think the Coalition

have 70, I think Labor have got 70.

We have the three independents, the

Green and Mr Wilkie in Tasmania,

there is five, and there are five

no doubt. So it is possible but

unlikely that one party could get

to 65. They would have to win all

the ones in doubt. The most likely

position now is that it is going be

72, 73, 73, 72, a at an outside, 74,

71, or something like that. It is

position thabl the Coalition can

win the election with the support

of the three independents and the

nationals if they got 73, they

would be the highest party. Then

again it would be possible if the

Labor stkpwot 74 and they got the

green and Wilkie they could win.

One seat is now 50, 50, if you look

at the vote. Sarah hender son is a

big comeback, for reasons you can't

explain, but she has. That is now

in doubt where it was previously in

the Labor camp. We are not going to

know the result to night. I think

you are going to find some

challenges in some seats in the few

next week. There were some seats

with only a few hundred votes you

will have challenged to the Australian Electoral Commission,

you will have challenges to the

High Court. It is possible that we

may not have a government in this

country for a number of weeks. We

may be uncertain about the

government for a number of weeks

because this is an election the

light of which we have never seen

before. If you are wondering what

that cheering is, Bob Brown is

still going on over there and

people will still cheering the list

of successes for the greens. Meantime,

Meantime, would you agree with what

Michael just said? Broadly. I think

it is interesting to consider that

we, on my information, have 8 seats

that are less than 1% in either

direction, Lindsay, green way,

Morton, Latrobe, Boothby, Hasluck

Macquarie, those 8 are all too

close to call. I do agree with

Michael that we are unlikely to

know all of those tonight, but it

means there is quite a big chunch.

It is not the end of election night.

If all those seats did go one way

or the other it would make a huge

difference and I think particularly

for viewers at home, I think 8

seats under 1 pk, breaking both

ways we are not going to know for a

long time. It is still fascinating

viewing though, that is important

to recognise at this point. Even

though there has been a collective

sigh at home. Julia Gillard will be

busily doing the numbers where she

is. It is probably very tense there.

Tracy Grimshaw joins us now. Hi,

how is it going? Hey, Karl I, am

here with a much more swelled crowd

I must tell you at Julia Gillard

headquarters at the Melbourne

convention centre. I am with a man,

Steve Brax who is a good friend of

Julia Gillard, he has been with her

tonight. Hi, nice to see you. Hi.

What is the mood in the hotel room

mood to night I think it is the

same mood all around the country,

that is wait to see. Julia Gillard

is waiting to see the final results

and I don't think you will see a

final result tonight. I heard a bit

of Michael's commentary and I

concur completely. I think we are

headed for a hung Parliament and it

will be a position where the end

pen debts and the Greens will be

negotiating with either party and

they will be negotiating around no

confidence motions and security of

supply and the assurance they can

give to the Govenor-General on

those matters and if they are given

to one of the parties then a

government can be formed. That will

take some time. That will be some

negotiation and I don't think we

will see the outcome of that

because we will need to count out

some of these seats and there will

be a magic 72, 73 type figurely be the pre-requirement for that. It

will be a very long period before we know the outcome.

Do you think that Labor will be

able the scoop up the independents?

I don't know. I know we had a

similar situation in 199199. Two of

the three independents that were

required to form government (1999)

were actually conservative end

pebtdts, ex-National Party, they

went with a charter of responsibilities with your

government and we went on to serve

very well I thought as a government.

It can be done. They are

disaffected from their previous

party for a reason. I don't think

you should presuppose. I think they

are independent in the true sense

of the word. They decide themselves

on this and I think they probably

don't like the pushing and prodding,

they will need the time. Given your

experience in the area and your

closeness to Julia Gillard, have

you been discussing with this her

tonight? Not in any detail in

passing I think I said all signs

lead to a hung Parliament and I

couldn't think of anyone more

capable to take on that task. I

think she is streamly good, a once

in a generation politician F he

gets the chance for her to govern

as Prime Minister people will see

her true positions. Her job will be

to secure the term and that is that

is going to be the task over the

next couple of days. What do you

think has caused the backlash that

you have seen tonight? When you say

backlash, Labor are within a

striking chance to get a second

material. Just There has been a

swing against them, it is just. I

think the party has to have a

complete review, not only of the

campaign, yes, there needs to be a

review of the campaign but of

policy and also of the, if you like,

the performance that we have had

over this period as well. I think

that review will through a up a

through things. Clearly there has

been differentials in different

states. We can't escape the fact

that the federal Labor Party has

been used as a sur row gat in other

states in relation to the Labor

Party. Whatever we say that has

happened. There is not too much

wrong in Australia currently. We

have low unemployment, CPI which is

low, the growth is good, we are the

Envy of other countries. Sure,

there are issues but there wasn't

any issue that was overriding some

of the State issues in other states.

Maxine McKew says that the campaign

was undisciplined and that she

would probably still be member for

Bennelong if the campaign had been

as disciplined as it was in 2007.

When you say that there will need

to be a review, would that be your

criticism? Well, I think that you

are better off when you are in a

position, and I sympathise with

Maxine, she was a good candidate,

she won the seat she was a good

member, but when she looks back on

the interview she might think she

should have waited because there is

a lot of emotions that run on

election night and I think it would

be better in reflection to think

about what really happened and what

happened in the seat more broadly.

I think it is too early to make

those judgments. I don't think you

can really pin it on just the

campaign. Of course that will be

one of the components, but maybe

there is a policy position. Maybe

we need a stronger platform. Maybe

we need a stronger proposition for

the future. I think we need to

examine those matters and come to a

position coolie and calmly but

let's see if we can form government.

It is not over yet. Am I reading

between the lines, that youry

saying there wasn't enough grand

vision, bold courageous vision from

Labor? I there there was. I think

it is hard to get it described

adequately and understood. I think

gets clear air to get that through

and understood was the difficulty.

We need to examine that and see how

we can do better in the future.

Have you been surprised at how

disciplines Tony Abbott has been in

this campaign? Not really. I think

he is a professional politician.

Julia Gillard is too. They are

seasoned, abled politicians and I

think we expected that he would do

well and he did do well, but he is

not there yet. Alright. Thanks very

much. Unless anyone else wants to

ask a question, he has an earpiece

and can hear you. Do you have any

questions? How did you go about

getting the independents on your

side when you formed the minority

government, Steve? Laurie, we

actually asked the independents to

think about what they wanted in

government, what they aspire to and

to come up with a charter or a set

of principles pore policies and

then we responded to that. We said

what we stood for and where there

was commonality we talked about

that. I think it is important

probably to find the common threads

of the independence, what are they

seeking n regional policies or

Dempsey, agenda and the Parliament.

Are they looking for fix terms,

more security in the Parliament,

better participation in the

democratic process. They would be

matters like that that are contheir

agenda and if they put that

position strongly and coherently

the partys will be obliged to

response. That is what happened in

our case. Do you think they will

respond to the kind of threats that

we have heard from Barnaby Joyce?

Look, I honestly haven't heard

those, Laurie. I am not sure what

he said. Barnaby says if they go

with labour their constit units

will rise up. Well, Barnaby Joyce

has just opened the negotiations

and he has assisted in the

goologists on behalf of the Labor

Party. Thank you very much for that

Steve bracskss and good news for

the next two weeks. Yeah. Julia

Gillard told me on Thursday to

bring my sleeping bag. I am going

home to get it. Just a quick

comment there. Let me make this

point about the independents, I

think Adam Bandt, the Green in

Melbourne said he will put his vote

behind the Labor Party. That is one

in the bag. I think Andrew Wilkie

in Dennison is much more commited

to the Labor Party than any of the

ex Nats are commited to the

Coalition. Do I would think that if

Labor has one or more of the

Coalition, the Govenor-General will

sends for the Labor leader, Julia

Gillard and my assumption is she

will be able to count on them and

as a consequence of that she is

more likely to be able to form a

government than Tony Abbott. Now, I

would be extremely nice to phone

any Windsor and extremely nice to

Rob Oakshot and Bob Catter in the

interim, but I think the Green and

Andrew Wilkie are much more

commited to Labor than the other

three independents commited to the

Coalition. I think Adam Bandt has

been open about that and I don't he

he would have won Melbourne if he

hasnd bend open about it. He has

been open that he would work with a

Labor government. I don't think any

such comment sels been made by

Andrew Wilkie so I think that is a

little more unknown and clearly the

Tony Windsor, Rob oakshot situation

is not so known We are not there

yet. Let's have a look at the cliff

hangers. We are definitely not there yet.

Let let's look at them Closely.

You would have expected he would

have a postial vote application and

they will come in If he has done

his job, that is true. I think the

postial votes could be a problem

for us. We ran a great campaign in

getting postial ballots out to

people and put them in the hands

exactly the time we were being

beaten around the head with leaks.

That may not go well for us. That

is exactly the point I was going to

make, nick la. If people lodged

their postial votes in the second

week of the campaign t start of the

third week, after the leaks but

after Julia Gillard stupid promise

to do with climate change, and

after the eruptions with Mark

Latham, people who cast their votes

then are much likely to vote

against you. Canning now, Laurie.

Labor 42.1% of the votes, Liberal

42.9, Green 8.2. The three point 9%

swing to the Labor Party in canning,

and a swing against the Liberals.

She is a very interesting candidate.

Remember, she was a former minister

in the State Labor government. She

delivered a railway line, think I,

to the electorate she is running in.

She is very well known. If someone

is going to buck the trend, it will

be her. That is going to be an

interesting one to keep an eye on.

Still in WA, let's look at

Fremantle. 9% swing to lose One.

Labour will hold on with the

preferences from the Greens. A very

good results. She will be a

minister next time round. Remember,

this is the seat that at the State

level went to the greens. So you

wouldn't be surprised that there is

quite a big Green vote. They may

not keep that. I think after all

the scandal that was there -- She

became quite famous, didn't she.

That Green become very friendly

with the Liberal treasurer, but we

don't need to go on about that. The

picture of things building against

Labor has pretty much stopped and

we are looking at a minority

government either way of one sort

of another this. Is part of a

bigger picture in world government.

You have a minority government in

Britain, and in can darbgs it looks

very likely we will have one here.

It is going to have to lead to a

different kind of politics. What

kind of politics is that, though,?

Is it a mess? Does it slow down the

wheels of deckcy. Things don't get

done It is going to take a lot more

sophistication. I really like

Barnaby Joyce, but I think his

approach you saw in his dealing

with the Tony Windsor, it is the

sort of thing that doesn't work in

this new world, where you have to

seek to hold independents, Greens,

bits and pieces here and there in

order to get things done. It does

make things difficult. We have been

a government without a majority. We

are been dealing with not just the

Greens, but a family first, an

independent from South Australia. I

publicly said before this can be a

pretty challenges team of people to

negotiate with and I think Steve

Bracks pointed to it. You will need

a more formal approach and need

time to work out what the deal

would include. I think you are

right but this kind of poll tinges

is not up to cutting one deal that

stitches. It has allowed most of

the Federal Governments and

federation to get the Bills through

the Senate even when they haven't

got the numbers which is usually

never. I think lex lek lex who has

just won Bennelong is a very

interesting contrasting style to

many of the other Coalition voss

with we have heard tonight. Polite,

civil, thoughtful, reflective, and

I think the control control has to

develop that sort of approach to,

deal in this new world of minority

government. I thought it would lead

to less efficient government, but

efficiency is not everything. I

think there is is a hung Parliament

it would have to lead to a more

civil political discourse and that

would be a damn good thing. What

happened when Wayne Swan was

talking earlier I think is wrong

with is wrong with the Australian

politics. I have to say that Wayne

Swan has been a successful

treasurer. He did get through us

the GFC and he didn't deserve it.

That is the kind of thing that we

need to tone down. We do need to be

more civil and sensible and

civilised. If a hung Parliament

does that, that is beautiful. Does

it mean, though, Laurie, that the

decision making is slower, that

things slow down. They can't be

much lower than they were many some

areas under Kevin Rudd. Maybe they

won't. Is this is ultimate way to

keep the was tards honest. It helps.

The role that was played by the

demonstrates in the sthath could be

played by the independents in the house of

house of reps because they would

only undertake to guarantee sly. It

means on other issues they can vote

against the government and keep

them honest. I am old fashioned

enough to think that a majority

government is the better way to go

but I can see a lot of advantages

of a hung Parliament, and I do

think politics has got too nasty,

too argumentative and too

adversarial and if a hung

Parliament would pull that in, that

would be good. I think slowing

things down would be OK for policy,

but it does mean that the public

will have to adjust their

expectation about how quickly the

government can ac. I really

disagree with that. Can we leave

that disagreement until later. E

have to go to the Four Seasons

Hotel where we find Peter who is at

Tony Abbott headquarters right now.

Any sign of him yet? Lisa, the Four

Seasons Hotel here we certainly

have an atmosphere now, compared to

when acrossed to you earlier. A

very excited Liberal party faithful

here. We have camera crews out the

front in the foyer of this hotel.

They are waiting for the arrival of

Tony Abbott and I believe his

family, his wife Margie, and his

daughters, Louise, Francis and

bridge it, Mr and Mrs Absenior,

Tony Abbott parents are already at

the hotel. It is Tony time,

certainly a very goods feeling here

amongst the Liberal faithful. What

Tony Abbott has achieved so far as

trying to keep them quiet is a task

inist. A good atmosphere here. We

will go back to you as soon as Tony

Abbott appears. Woe don't think

think will be a result tonight but

both leaders will address the

support es and the Australian

public. Let's go to Western

Australia now, and Hasluck. Nadya

joins u now. What is the mood like there this morning?

The Liberals candidate is on track

to win. But it's going to be very

close and one that will go down to

the wire. It will. We won't be able

to claim any sort of victory until

we see what the final figures are.

There seat historically has always

been very close and being a

marginal seat, sometimes it takes a

come of days before we know the

result. The big thing here was the

mining tax you found that was

something that there was a big

protest against that here. The

mining tax was quite strong because

it impacts on the fly in fly outs

but also we've got many small

businesses that rely on the mining

sector. When there's a down turn or

there is concern about the

possibility of a mining project not

proceeding, then people

automatically think about that

impact to them. We're seeing a

swing at the moment of about 1%

which would be enough if you could

maintain that to win. It would be.

We need more than 0.9. So anything

above that is then - really open it

is door for a different future.

This would be a very historic win

for you because if you do win you

would then be the first Aboriginal

person to sit in the House of Representatives. How significant

would that be? I think it's going

to be important. I think it's going

to have an impact for me personally and to have an impact for me personally

and also for our own people because

they're going to see somebody who

has been there and many more to

follow and voices in the House of Representatives and the senate.

Thank you very much for that.

Congratulations. That will be very

historic -- historic if it comes to

pass. Still very close there, too

close to call at the moment. Yes,

it seems that way. Let's now see

what's happening on Twitter. Ben

Fordham is our big Twit tonight.

Thank you. Isn't that just lovely.

I appreciate that. I should tell

you, quite interesting, Maxine

McKew is the number 1 trending

topic on Twitter worldwide at the

moment. I know half the globe is

asleep, but the reason that's

happening is because she had a bit

of a melt down after losing her

seat and basically blamed the ALP

machine, said you can't get rid of

a Prime Minister then go to the

polls and expect to have a positive

message. They're all talking about

Maxine McKew at the moment

including Paul Murray from triple M.

He says:

The other one is Bob Brown because

he made an appearance in the tally

room before and he used that line, the

the green slide, which was very popular.

Lot of people talking about that on

Twitter. A lot of people watching,

believe it or not, other television

coverages including Andrew Hansen

from the chaser. A bit of a summary of SBS.

That's mean. I didn't say it. He

said it. Fair enough, too. Keep

Twittering away. Thanks for that.

Shorten was a key player in the

koup that removed Kevin Rudd and he

joins us now from Maribyrnong. Good

evening to you. Congratulations

first of all of all on the victory.

Not a great night for Labor

overalthough you'd have to say. No,

it's a long and uncertain night. In

the local area it's greet. Had a 4%

swing in Maribyrnong. I take my cue

from the locals. They're obviously

very supportive of Julia Gillard

but across the nation it's an

uncertain night. What do you think

the reason is for that big swing?

Well, first of all, I just have to

say, as the saying goes, the fat

lady hasn't sung yet. Before we

talk about the reasons and all the

where fors, we have to see who's

won this election. I'm optimistic

that Labor can win this election. Certainly it's clear, though, that

there's been state factors at work

in Queensland and NSW. But having

said that, Julia Gillard's

performed magnificently, as has the

whole Labor team. Maxine McKew has

had something to say about the

swing. She says you can't remove a

sitting Prime Minister and then go

to the polls and expect it to have

a happy outcome. Well, I'm sorry to

hear that Maxine has lost her seat.

She's been a great member of

Parliament. She did the impossible

ask, she slayed John Howard. She's

done a greet job in Parliament. I'm

very disappointed for her. I think

voters of Bennelong have lost a

great MP. Beyond that, I say this

election isn't over F they think

voting for Tony Abbott, they've got

John Howard again, he's not. He's

not John Howard hour, he's John

Howard but very much the second 11

of the John Howard brigade. I think

what's important is to see what

happens in the rest of tonight and

tomorrow. Labor had a message,

Labor has a message. If Labor loses,

do you think the knifeing of Kevin

Rudd will have been a factor and

what other people do you people

will blame you and Mark ar bib for

the loss? The two - the magic word

you used at the start of the

sentence is if. It's by no means

clear to me that Labor has lost or

won. I think the event is very

uncertain. That's why I used the

word if. Yeah, yeah, word if. Yeah, yeah, and it's spot

on with your English there. But

what I was going to saw to you

continue was this. I think this

election, when people go to the

booths is decided by what people

think is in their interests. I

think there is a very big state

factor in NSW and Queensland. It

must be the case because in

Victoria Labor's done pretty well

really, won two seats it would

appear. So I think there are state

and regional factors which will

have to be examined and I think

that's what's been at play. If

Kevin Rudd hadn't had his head

chopped off do you think you would

have lost the election? Would he

have lost it? We went to the

election with Julia Gillard. This

was a competition between Julia

Gillard and Tony Abbott. I think

Julia Gillard did a greet job.

There's no doubt that after she

became leader Labor's stocks liftd.

There's no doubt that with the

leaks that was very unhelpible as

you identified earlier on the show

and still Julia has taken us back

into a competitive position. It's a

long night. I think it's a very confident person who would predict

the outcome and I certainly think

that Julia Gillard has done her

overwhelming best to put Labor into

a competitive position at this

election which is reflected -

stkpwhru you have no regrets about

your role in getting rid of Kevin

Rudd? Laurie, I certainly think

that Julia Gillard was the best

person to lead us to this election

and I think she's demonstrated that.

You know, when I look at this

election there's been a few unusual

things. The introduction of Latham

on Channel Nine as a journalist for

instance. There's been plenty of

unusual - there's Ben plenty of

unusual issues in this election but

I think when you get down to the

substance, Julia Gillard's

communicated a message act the

future. This election night is not

over. I just wonder, you mention

state factors were a significant

issue here. I wonder if state

factors were to blame why you

didn't get Queensland to oust Anna

Bligh. In the process. Well, this

is a Federal election, and I think

certainly it's clear to me that the

LNP in Queensland have tried to

link Julia Gillard and Bligh. Julia

Gillard came - has come forward

with a very good message. What

worries me about tonight's election

is if Labor is unsuccessful there's

millions of Australians who are not

going to get 12% superannuation.

What worries me about tonight's

election is the future of hospital

reform. What worries me tonight is

the future of small business

getting that 5,000 dollars

depreciation allowance which has

been promiseed. What worries me is

we might have a Prime Minister who

thinks that climate change is crap.

But anyway all of this is for the

future. I'm not going to put the

cart before the horse. Tonight

we'll see the country in the South

Australian territory, Western

Australian seats and the key seats

in Sydney. I know what I think's in

the best interests of this country

and that will be if Julia Gillard will be able to

will be able to form a Government

But if she can't form a Government,

who do you think will be the next

leader of Labor Party? Michael has

said it would be you. Your thoughts.

I'm reasonably sure Michael won't

be the next leader of the Labor

Party that's all I do know. No, he

said you would be the next leader

of the Labor Party. You know,

that's - talk about the kiss of

death. What I'm interested in is

Julia Gillard winning this election.

Will you put Julia Gillard - are

you saying that you gave Julia

Gillard the kiss of death? Oh,

listen, Julia Gillard is a Labor

rock star. She's taken us from the

brink of a real disaster not once

but twice. She took us up there.

The leaks were clearly unhelpful as

has been observed by your own panel

tonight and she's taken us up again.

She's done a mountain of this work.

This election isn't over until we

see all the seats and where they

fall. What I say to the million

million of Australians who put

their trust in Labor is hang in

there. Peter Costello here. You've

mentioned on at least two occasions

now that the leaks were damaging.

How much responsibility for this

result, this Labor result, do you

think Kevin Rudd should take? Oh,

no I'm not allocating blame act who

and what. I don't think that's the

issue. The point is the leaks were

clearly malicious and clearly

unhelpful. Your advertising

campaign, Peter, of the Liberal

Party targeted that issue. But, as

I say, before we get into the

postmortem, this game, the score,

the siren hasn't rung on this game.

I understand my team, the Magpies

got up by two or three points

tonight against the Crows. It's a

long game. The score hasn't been

declared. Before we start looking

at what and why and I've offered

some views to you about the leaks

and about the impact of the State

Governments, in terms of the

Federal election, beyond that what

I'd say is it's a long night. I

don't think we have seen all the

seats decided and I know that Julia

Gillard has done an outstanding job.

Fair's fair but you shouldn't get

into Peter over advertising. He

starred in your best add. Can I say,

Bill, you've said it's the leaks

that's the problems but if it wasn't Kevin Rudd who was

responsible for the leaks would you

like tf give us a culprit who we

could look to? Peter, I'm in the a

member of the CSI investigations

unit. This is not Hollywood

detectives. I know the consequence

of it. But, you know, Laurie Oakes

is the bloke who can answer these

questions not me and I don't think

he will be telling anyone.

Certainly not. Easy, easy. Haerbg

well done on winning your seat. The

hub bub of your panel is deafening.

Well done on winning your seat and

congratulations as always. We'll

see you very soon. Thank you very

much Let's recap the Labor

politician who is have lost their

seats tonight. There's 16 of them.

This is uncomfortable for Nicola

Roxon. Look away. It's not a happy thing. That's true.

It's a sad list.

They're still coming. 16 in all.

Just to keep Mark happy we're going

to have the two coalition dead

ducks. They are:

The hero cop from Black Saturday.

He was a very good candidate. You

know what Channel Nine needs? St

floating ducks, the one that is are

still there in the pond we're not

quite sure of Floating on the top

and working really hard under the

water. If you've got a spare 50,000

dollars we'll work on there. You

need to keep an eye on Boothby.

We're not giving tup fight there.

We still think there's a chance

there. That's very close. The other

one is Macquarie. It's in the lost

list. Our scrutineers are saying we

have a chance there. Michael, you

want - a big picture here. Putting

your hand up. If you want to know

why Shorten will be the next leader

of the Labor Party you need to look

at that performance tonight. He

doesn't like Julia Gillard. She's

from a different faction. They've

been enemys for 20 years. Hang on.

Stop interrupting. That's nonsense.

It is true, Mark. Everybody knows

that she's in the left and Bill's

in the right for 30 years. That was

the first class performance by him

tonight. But you claim to have

friends on the left of the Liberal

Party. Yeah, but they're not

friends. You know that. I know that.

Everybody knows that. What you're

seeing is the situation where he

gave a word perfect performance

tonight. It must be breaking his

heart to see this Government almost

seemingly could be brought down

after one term but that was an

incredibly discipline performance

by him tonight. Julia Gillard,

she's like Kevin Rudd. In the 110

member of your caucus Rudd only had

30 supporters. That's why he

couldn't run the ballot. Julia

Gillard is in the left, but she's

in the left. That's the same sort

of 30 votes. The majority faction

in the ALP caucus which includes

you two, they have 08 votes.

Shorten's in the group that's got

80. It beg ars belief that Julia

Gillard will lead Labor to the next

election shun. That kind of

analysis is the problem. There's a

big screaming issue in in election

that has had no comment tonight.

It's called The Greens with 14% of

the vote. Now, the mystery of

election to me is why Labor could

not come up with a convincing

climate policy that could drag back

many traditionAl support frrs The

Greens where they've fallen. Most

worryingly nor Labor with young

people for the first time. Once

you've made your first vote for a

party it's pretty hard to drag it

back. Do you think it's because

young people embrace climate change,

believe it's happening, believe

that it could have been solved by

Labor and they stepped back from

that challenge? The greatest moral

challenge of our time. Enduring

mystery of the Rudd and Gillard Government why Labor could not come

up with a single convincing strong

policy on climate change that said

to supporters of the environmental

policies generally, vote Labor. It

shouldn't have been brain surgery.

This is a natural Labor issue. The

fact you've got The Greens tonight

with 14% of the vote they'll have a

stack of senators and their first

elected lower house member, that is

the real historic element tonight.

Boy, is it going to have long-term

effects. Tony Abbott read that same

element on the other side. He

picked up on it right from the

electorate saying, hang hon a

section, ETS, majority of kun

Australians don't like it. He got a

lot of support from that and Labor,

that spooked Labor. Isn't that fair

to say? What What's the other

notable thing about Tony Abbott ab

tonight? He doesn't have a majority

of seats and not talking ak a

Abbott Government. Give him a go.

This is a first time Government

which has essentially lost its

majority. Who was leading the

Liberal Party? Abbott. You're

saying he hasn't got a five or 10

or 15 seat majority. But let's make

this point. He has takable 14 seats

off the Labor. That's not a bad

result. Who would have put money on

Tony Abbott to have done that a

year ago? Not you. Let me tell you

the great winners in in election

campaign. Number 1, Tony Abbott

because he has taken the coalition

within a whiff. The second person

who is a great - That's called

losing so far. Terrible loss. Julia

Gillard lost her majority in the

Parliament. You ought to sit there

if you think that's a good result

you'll be on your own. The other

person who is a greet winner

tonight is Bob Brown. He not only

has probably two votes in the House

of Representatives, he's got

control of the senate. You won't be

able to actually do anything

without Bob Brown. In fact I think

aMr Interesting thing here is going

to be whether Julia Gillard Julia

Gillard not just negotiates to try

and get minority -- minority

support tw the two greepbs. She

might ebt into a packet with the

gleens in the senate as well.

Labor's vote has collapsed. I don't

think there's a great mystery why

it collapsed. Labor went to the

right. They decided they were going

to be as tough as the coalition on

border. They decide they would

campaign on balanced budgets give

up the ETS and started haemorrhages

on the left. That was always

Labor's problem. Labor got there by

saying they would deal with all of

these things. Labor deserted that

and let the green in on the left

and this is a big problem for Labor.

And the coalition's problem many

people did not want to vote Labor

this election but the coalition led

by Tony Abbott could not persuade

them to come across directly to

them. A real indictment of the

Abbott leadership. Great result for

Julia Gillard. Lost her majority in

the first term of Government. Why

didn't I think of that. Peter

Costello is about to blow his stack.

I want to make a point. Before we

move on. All this talk, Laurie

mentioned br of -- before of a mo