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Election 2010: Australia Decides Nine Network -

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(generated from captions) Most of Australia has been dry for We are getting Perth way, from a front. A trough is the trigger for north-west NSW of NSW will be fine. The ACT also dry. Canberra - the fog to a sunny day. Blue skies in Melbourne. Perth some early Sydney - plenty breeze bringing in

Some very late rain coming in the west. Some very late rain coming in from

City temperatures tomorrow 8-17. Then either late Sunday Monday we'll all be gone by lunchtime. But that's it for the rain for the of the working week. suburbs also in for a mostly sunny Sunday. Expecting nothing 5mm of rain for Monday at stage. A few cloudy days next but it is going to be windy. The next 4 days starting Sunday up to 50mm likely in parts NSW. 50mm likely in parts of northern election day - a million election day - a day when 14 votes in more than 7,500 million Australians cast their

This program is captioned live.

Welcome back to the tally room here

in Canberra. Hasn't it been an in Canberra. Hasn't it been an

interesting night so far. Polling

booths in South Australia and the

Northern Territory. Our breaking

news, an exclusive exit poll

predicting a knife edge result.

Going down to the wire. A long

night for us here and possibly for

you around Australia. We'll be here

for you. This is how the numbers line up. After preferences --:

That is a 0.7% swing against Labor.

Laurie, the figures get more

meaningful when we look at the

Yes. swings in the individual states.

There are the primary votes from

our exit poll:

Laurie, lots to talk on this panel

about those numbers. Can we believe

them? The polling, this I think is

a valid exercise. But it is worthy

-- whenever the swings are. We -- whenever the swings are. We

don't know in terms of individual

swings where they're occurring.

That primary vote would be

significantly higher than Labor

would have expected in the last

couple of weeks. Labor was down to

35% this week, getting up to 41%

has cheered them up. Michael,

you're not so sure about this exit

poll result. No. Western Australia,

South Australia and the Northern

Territory, I don't think it's quite

right. I don't think there's a

swing to Labor in Western Australia,

might be in South Australia, but I

think it was too small a number of

voters. 24 booths across thousands

across the country. So look exit

polls are the least - the least

reliable of any poll you do. So,

are we terribly influenced by it?

It's an interesting piece of

information. Just to interrupt, we

have the first results coming in

now. Let's see if the early trends

match up with the exit poll. Flynn.

In Flynn, the Liberal Party has 504 votes.

We see there the Liberal National

Party has 65% of the vote. You

wouldn't want that to keep up for

lopbg too long if you're the Labor

Party. That's in line with our

skpit poll. We see there Labor with

29.6% of the vote.

2.2% swing would cost Labor that

seefplt these are early figures.

Let Eagles look now at Forde.

Another Queensland marginal seat,

we see there the sitting Labor MP

with 45 votes. Hardly anything

much. counted there. Doesn't mean very

Next one to Bennelong, the one that

everybody wants to have a good look

at. We see there in Bennelong, :

Again too early for that to mean

very much. Another interesting seat

after we look at those percentages

for Bennelong will be the seat of

Macquarie early days at this point

of course. Yes. You know, but -

This is where Liberal moved away

safe in the redistribution. from gene way which was made less

Again very early. A swing there of

- 2.9% swing to the Labor Party.

Finally let's have a quick look at

Gilmore. Gilmore on the NSW south

coast, Liberal candidate:

Gash is the sitting member but

the redistribution. notionally a Labor seat because of

A swing against Labor. Again very

early figures. Doesn't mean a lot.

Our panel went way into this

shortly, but I want to go to early

figures out of Eden-Monaro. So

called great seat.

Early days. An important seat that

- I think one. Nicola Roxon, did you want to

- I think the to be really careful

about particularly for the regional

seat are these are tiny numbers.

They're likely to be very small

booths in part of the seat, very

different if you go to Gladstone in

Flynn or others. We have to be

cautious because as Laurie's saying,

200 votes, we can't necessarily

detect any trend that early on in

variable if the seats that are enormously

variable if you're in a small

country town or if you're in the

regional part of that electorate.

Good point. We'll still have a --

still have a look at them, early

figures in from Page.

Hardly anything counted.

Let's have a look - It is

meaningless but you have to look at

on those small booths is look at

the swings. It's all over the place.

We've seen a couple of swings to

LNP, couple of swings to the

coalition, we're also seeing some

swings especially in Eden-Monaro

and Page, regional seats back to

small. Small but look at the swings.

If you have a small number you have

a regional booth and that's can't

be counted as a sample that's

relevant to what's going on.

Talking of the regional areas up to

far north Queensland, Leichhardt of

particular interest. Warren is very

popular. Yes, he retired before the

last election so he wasn't caught

slide. up in the antiHoward Rudd side. --

Have to be pretty happy with that.

10% swing to the Liberal National

Party. One of the things you have

to take into account in relation to

those seats is what happened last

time. Now, the seat of Leichhardt

had a swing of 14.2% last time.

That is a huge swing, and you would

expect that there would be some

correction. Almost certainly there

would be - I think Warren's going

to - I'll call Warren a winner

already. I think Warren will win it.

I think we may not have lost it

possibly if Warren had been running

in 2007 but the point I'm making is

this. 14.2% swing last time, all

you need is a correction of four of

that so it's 10% over the two

would think if elections and Warren's back. I

would think if any of those seats

in Queensland, although Leichhardt

looks one of the figureest --

biggest at 4%, I think Warren will

be back in Parliament very shortly

We will continue that analysis

shortly. Right now whatever unfolds

here tonight we're going to make it

easy for you to follow. Use can see,

17 more seats is what the coalition

is guning for tonight. We'll be

keeping you up-to-date as seats are

won and lost. Win a seat and

won and lost. Win a seat and you'll

hear this noise. (bell dings). You

Ding. And see the coalition numbers

click over on the top right of your

screen. If they lose one of their

own seats this will let you know.

(buzzer sounds). The seat number

the coalition is after will grow by

one again and

one again and there'll be constant

information on all the seats not

just the marginals here at the

bottom of the screen as soon as

there are votes in your electorate

you will see it right there. So you

can follow all the progress through

the course of the night. Early

figures, Laurie. Have you got

anything to say about those early

numbers? They're all over the place.

The swings mean something but they

are all over the place. Michael

have you taken a donation or

getting hot off the press

information? No, Chinese. What

would you like? I'll have number 31,

thanks. What you can see early on

is Labor's vote in NSW is around

10% down, primary vote. That's only

on a quarter% of the vote counted

so incredibly early but they are

matched booths. Labor are doing

worse in NSW than they themselves

anticipated. But you don't want to

- Extremely early. I generally take

the view once you have 5perbs of a

vote in a seat -- 5% vote in a seat

you have a good guide as to which

way it will go. Anything under five,

it's interesting but not definitive.

Were you prepared to write-off

Leichhardt before the election? No.

Leichhardt is a very hard seat for

us because Warren was a good local

MP. He's come back in. We have a

very good local MP there, though.

He's a good fight. We've got to

look at what's going on in part of

Cairns, not just in the regional

areas. It's very hard to tell on

the early numbers. He might have

been a very good member and fought

hard but he lost. The radio

announcer has canned Jim Turnour.

There's a general feeling around

the traps that Jim has been a nice

bloke but ineffectual The first

figures from Brisbane. Yes, this is

an interesting seat with a whole

lot of well-known MPs contesting it.

The green, who used to be the

Democrat leader, is doing very well

with nearly 20% of the primary vote

share. It's a 13.9% swing against Labor.

That is very interesting because

that's a generic seat where the

booths are close together. You're

getting a proper sample size of

what's going on, there no regional

discrepancys. Changing seats.

Henderson lives where sea change

was filmed.

This will worry the Labor Party

because they were expecting a swing

in Victoria. Nick la. I have some

figures from a very small boolt in

McEwen, also one in Victoria we're

keeping a close eye on. It is a

small booth but a very strong swing

to us, act 7%. I think this is just

showing figures will be all over

the place tonight. Corangamite,

those early figures are bad for us.

McEwen, these early figures, very

small booth are good for us. Too

early to tell but we'll be watching

Victoria as much as Queensland I

think tonight. Liberales have a

good candidate in McEwen as well.

Yes. Can I make this point? That we

know that Labor's going to lose

seats in Queensland and NSW, no

doubt about that. The only way that

Labor can hang on to Government

therefore is to get a net increase

therefore is to get a net increase

in Victoria. It's not enough in

Victoria for Labor to win McEwen

and lose Corangamite. Labor

actually has to get net wins in

Victoria, has to get up by about

two or three seats to neutralise

what we know is going to go on in

Queensland and NSW. Although the

election won't be decided in

Victoria, if Labor can't

breakthrough, if they can't

breakthrough in La Trobe and if

they lose in Corangamite, that'll be fatal

be fatal for Julia Gillard tonight.

I agree with Peter on that analysis.

We're very keen for those numbers

to continue coming in. Look at Bass

now. In Tasmania.

Hardly anything counted there.

There is a swing to the Labor Party,

but very, very early days. We've

got Bonner -- In terms of Tasmania

we have to clean sweep Tasmania. If

Labor doesn't win the five seats

then we are out of the game Bonner.

The Greens, too, are not polling

particularly well. Another seat

we'll back at banks. That's a pretty safe seat.

Very safe seat.

If they're going to put anyone

against him - He're -- he's a very

good candidate. Lot of support in

the area there. Early results in

Brad ham, fair number of booths are

in but again a lot of small ones, a

good swing to us from those. Again

I think we're seeing across the

country that will be difficult. If

that's right, Mark's point about

hanging on to all of Tasmania will

be important for us. -- Braddon.

There we go.

I think with that close, that's

probably still with preferences as

well, two party preferred would be

one we would be likely to hold.

It's a small number. Swing to Labor

there so that's en couraging --

encouraging for the Labor Party. A

swing against the Liberals. The

problem with Tasmania is Labor

holds the five seats in Tasmania,

it can't get any net additions. But

we can have losses and we're trying

to get the picture across the

country. If you have losses in

Tasmania, then it's a land slide to

Tasmania, then it's a land slide to

Tony Abbott. Good night nurse.

Ffrpblgts you hold Tasmania Tony

Abbott can still win. Labor has to

pick up seats somewhere to off set

what it's going to lose in

Queensland and NSW. It's looking at

Victoria and South Australia,

spoken to both of our candidates in

the marginals in Adelaide just in

the last hour, in Boothby and in

Sturt. Both of them are very confident they're going

confident they're going to hold F

that's the case, there will be no

change in South Australia. If

there's hardly any change in

Victoria, Labor's going to be in a

lot of trouble trying to net off

those loss which are most certainly

coming out of Queensland and NSW. I

we have Lyne coming in. Yes.

What's interesting there is that's

actually taking skin off the

independent member because he had

about many of the votes. He's been

trimmed back down. It could be a

National Party booth. National

Party look like they've gone back

by 18%. I think - Hard to get a

sample. I think we can declare Rob

will win tonight. There is no way

the Liberal or the national or the

Labor Party are winning that seat.

She's called them early and hard.

Let's look now at the seat of Parkes.

I think I'll call this one.

I'll go out on a limb on this one,

Laurie. I'm going to call it. For

the first time we're going to be in

agreement. I agree. Always a first.

It's a swing to your party. It will

be the 8.7%. I

be the 8.7%. I don't think it's

much of a limb, Barnaby. I've been

campaigning in nar brie and we got

all the votes. Paterson coming in,

too, we can have a look at now.

That's would be a tough seat for us

to win. Baldwin has been there for

a long time but we actually have an

extremely good candidate and I

reckon it's going to be one we

should keep our eye on. Big swing

against you there. A lot of red in

the wrong direction. I know but I'm

just saying. You want to make a

point about that. Paterson is very important because

important because that's been made

highly marginal. Bob Baldwin,

fantastic member who is defending

that seat and I believe he'll

probably increase the vote. Looking

at those figures I'd say Bob

Baldwin will be home, he'll

continue as the member for Paterson

and that is consistent with what I

believe you'll see a swing in NSW

of around three to four%. He's done

pretty well, spent about a million

dollars to get there, taxpayers

money. Bob Baldwin will get elected.

You'd never spend a million dollars

would you? How many school halls

did he get? Great classrooms and

labs. Kingsford Smith now.

How are you feeling on that one,

nick la? Well, I mean, I don't

think we're going to have any

trouble there. I don't think those

figures are good. Do I have to say

here I'm keen that we also look at

Jagajaga. I expect efficient --

suspect we have to do that. Just before we get

before we get to that, everybody's

noticed how absent Peter Garrett

has been throughout this campaign.

Would those - I know they're early

numbers but would that indicate

people feel like Peter Garrett just

hasn't been around, you've been

hiding him for the election? I

don't think you can make that

assumption. I think the campaign

has been run as a pretty

presidential campaign on both sides,

but I think we've had front

benchers doing a lot of marginal

seat campaigning pretty much not in

the national media but in a lot of

local media. Peter has been doing

that. I don't think you can read

much into those figures. We have

gelly bran. -- gel brand. -- gel

brand. I wanted to thank you to all

of my campaign team and volunteers.

No one days -- pays much attention

No one days -- pays much attention

to these seats on election night

but the volunteers do the hard

yards and I want to say thank you

to them. There is a big green vote

there. I was going to say we saw

earlier Julia Gillard voting in

your electorate. You don't think

she went green do you? Pretty

confident I had Julia's vote T

people were pretty excited to see

us both. I think one of the Labor

those without hair shall hide.

those without hair shall hide.

We'll -- we'll come back to that point, soon.

That's a good result. That was a

seat we were worried about before

tonight. If they're only getting

that small a swing then you would

say that we're a good chance of

hanging on with green preferences.

Good result on the central coast.

Michael. After 1% of the national

count voted, you have to have 5% to

get anything meaningful, there's a

2.3% swing against Labor across the

nation. Now, for the Parliament

basically to be 73 seats all pretty

tight it needs 2.3%. As everyone

knows, it's been a line ball

election, and the margin so far is

exactly as predicted, 2.3%, which

would mean Labor got 50.4 and the

coalition 49.. That's roughly where

it is after 1% of the vote. That

means it could be a hung Parliament,

could be 75, 71, 74, 72. Only 1%

but that's the early indication. To

Robertson now, see how that's going.

That's another very good result on

the central coast. That's amaze

fing that holds. -- amazing if that

holds. We're seeing slight swings

against the Labor, Liberal Party

going backwards. A bit early going backwards. A bit early to

count your chickens. I'm not doing

that, but I have to say the

Liberals expected to pick those

seats up nice and early. They've

been saying Robertson was gone. To

see a swing early is good. We're a

long way from having the seats but

it's a good start. We're going to

go to Queensland quickly. Vital

seats in Queensland, starting with

Flynn. This is important.

Working a lot with him. He seems to

own Gladstone, he know it is people

in the town. We didn't have to

introduce him. They knew who he was,

and he's typical of that part of

the country. I think we should say

that you also adopted Flynn and you can take can take some of the credit for

that swing I suspect. I don't know

whether I'd be that egotistical.

I'm sure you will. I certainly did

a bit of work. I'd like to thank,

you know, the fact that - It's all

you. Leader. Let's keep going

through them. Another Queensland seat of Dawson.

This is interesting. Brunker, he

smacked to pensioner in the head at

the Bowen races. Come on, you can't

say that. He did. You can't say

that on national television when

that is absolutely disputed. Your candidate

candidate admitted to publishing an

anti woman article as well. He did.

Call it a dead heat I think. It's

not a myth. He admitted to do it,

Mike Brunker. That's That's not

what he admitted. I can't let that

stand. In relation o all of this, I

think what you're sighing now is

north Queensland swing against

Labor. I said earlier I think

Warren will win Leichhardt. I think Dawson,

Dawson, I think Flynn, Cunningham.

The seat I'd want to keep my eye on

is Herbert. Because I'd say we've -

- we've got three out of four F we

go to Herbert that's the harder one.

If we get four out of four we'll be

clean sweeping north Queensland.

That is very significant. Let's

look at Herbert right now. While

you're pulling that up, for the

viewers it's useful to know seats viewers it's useful to know seats

like Herbert and a number of others

that we have to hold are notionally

ours but we don't have a sitting

member. That's going to make a big

difference. We've got at least five

of those seats. But your candidate

is very well-known. I'm saying I

think it's a point for us to

remember. 3.2% swing against him on

those figures.

The best is -- rest is The best is -- rest is going green.

The green in Herbert, this is very

interesting point. The Greens

didn't preference Labor in Herbert.

You know how The Greens entered

into a big deal with the Labor.

This is one of the seats where they

didn't. You'd normally look at the

green and say that will come back

to the Labor Party but it may not.

What I'd say is Leichhardt, I'd

call that a win to the Liberal -- call that a win to the Liberal --

Liberal Party. The National Party.

Liberal National Party. I'm Warren

was a Liberal, he was good before

and he's even better now.

Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, and

Herbert I think bit line ball. So

that eels a good result for us. Brisbane.

I'd be a bit wary of those. It's a

big -- big figure but I'm told that

booth is one which is always a very

strong Liberal voting booth so we

have to be war ry if that's right.

Brisbane often comes down to the

sign. It's a bad sign. It's a big swing.

swing. We wouldn't concede that yet.

Given what we know about the booths

that have been counted. Are we

going to look at Melbourne?

Intrigueed tat green vote so far is

a lot less dramatic than I thought

it would be in a number of these

key seats. Can we see any numbers

from Melbourne? We'll try and

organise that now. There we are.

Not a lot counted.

The Greens would be pretty happy

about that. I don't know about that.

The problem for The Greens, and I

think The Greens are most likely to

win Melbourne, but they have to

make sure that the Liberal Party

goes out before they do. Yes.,

that's right. Because you are

preferenceing them aren't you? Yes, but

but having a look at that, in fact,

the Liberal Party will get The

Greens home if they get home.

Having a look at that, the Liberal

Party was polling pretty well, and

they're actually got a poll worse

than that for The Greens to get up.

One of the interesting things in

the early figures is the green vote

is not as big as one would have

thought especially given the

disaffection among many Labor

people who are environmentalists I think it's a

think it's a good sign for Labor so

far. Page is interesting. I was

there yesterday and that swung back

to us and it's been a hard fight.

Kevin Hogan, he has done an

incredible job. On those fingers

it's a 3.3% swing to the Labor

Party. Check those booths before

you call it for the National Party.

I'm not calling it. You were saying

how you were there and campaigned

for them. Good to see the Barnaby

factor. I thought you would have

told us about school halls you

built there. The hospitals. Go

ahead with the figures.

Greens not polling as well as you'd

expect. Pat farmer's old seat. He

did a runner. That's never a good

look in places -- places like

Campbell town. This is one of those

seats where I mentioned it's

notionally ours but we have no

sitting member. I think well'll have

have a fair bit of pain in a number

of those seats. That's where the

seat where Tony Abbott turned up

and won in the morning and strapped

on the capsicum spray, taser and

they offered him a gun. That was scary. Now Braddon.

The Liberal Party put a lot of

attention into Braddon. They will

be disappointed with that result if

that's what hod up -- houldz up

through that seat. Sid's worked

very hard. Of course he's someone

who has been in the Parliament,

lost his seat before and is

absolutely determined not to do it

again. On those figures he looks

alright. Now, Blair coming up.

Another Queensland seat. Another Queensland seat. We think. There it is.

Tough turf for us, that's Ipswich

and some of those areas. Labor

wouldn't expect to lose this one.

No, you wouldn't. But there is a

swing against the Labor and swing against the Labor and quite a

big one. If there's a swung that

big we will lose it. You wouldn't

think it will be that big. What

about what's going to the greens,

pretty obvious. You will have to

bear in mind you will see big

swings against the Labor Party and

swings to the greens. If Labor gets

home tonight it will be a coalition

Government. It will be a Labor

green Government. The Labor first

preference vote is down below 40. The only

The only way Labor can actually get

into Government is by getting all

the green prefrpbs back. While you

continue to -- Get The Greens

preferences back. While you talk

let's go to Lilley. You find the

swings against Labor tend to net out.

Still holding the seat with green

preferences. See at the end of the

night how he goes. I think the

treasurer will be fine. I suspect

he'll be. No, he'll get back on

green preferences the same as most

of the Labor Party people will, and

when you're looking at his next when you're looking at his next

budget I think you could say "I'd

like to thank Bob brown bron for

getting me leer." Have you given

that to us? There's a huge swing to

Wayne Swan. You're calling a Labor

win already. No I'm saying you have

to net out the ALP and the greepbs.

Peter Costello can net all he likes.

There are three outstanding

features ab these numbers so far, one,

one, a big antiLabor swing in

Queensland. We knew that was coming.

Two, the green vote is much smaller

than expect ad three, the absolute

devastation Labor strategists have

been fearing in NSW is not

happening on those numbers. You'd

have to say early figures are

showing a pretty good outlook for

the Gillard Government. Just gone 7

o'clock. We can xk our South

Australian viewers to us -- we can welcome our South welcome our South Australian

viewers to us. Early figures, a

broad brush stroke on how things

are placed? It's not possible to

say yet who will win this election

but there is a big antiLabor swing

in Queensland and NSW. The Greens

are doing pretty well but perhaps

not as well as they would have

thought. We aren't seeing many

figures of 13% beside the green

candidates. It is on a knife edge, still too close still too close to call. It's going

to be a while before we know. It is

just after 7 o'clock in the eastern

states. Let's regroup and have a

look at where things are placed.

This is an update for everyone

around the country of the seats.

NSW target seats, let's look at those.

those. The Liberals are ahead:

NSW this is the tren. Queensland,

Laurie. NSW, 'This Is It' Laurie. NSW, 'This Is It' -- this

is the trend. -- NSW, this is the trend.

Let's weigh up that information in

the way it affects our virtual

Parliament. Let's jump to Michael

Usher. Michael. Of course thank you

very much. Welcome back I'm here in

the foyer of Parliament house where

we're trying to give you the big

Pickering chur. Straight into the

House of Representatives. House of Representatives. There's -

- give you the big picture. You're

seeing these numbers as I see them

as they're punched into the

computer. They're both at zero now.

The target is 76. In doubt

obviously is 150. That's how many

seats there are in this virtual

Parliament and in the real

Parliament obviously. As they're

confirmed you'll see the numbers

change. Either side gets to 76

they'll get the majority that they need.

need. Let's go back into the foyer

of Parliament house for a quick

history lesson of past election

wins. No doubt there will be a

cliff hanger election, a very tight

result. Even a hung Parliament. How

will tonight's result compare with

past elections? Let's bring up some

portraits of past Prime Ministers.

There was Malcolm Fraser in 1975.

When he came into pour he -- power When he came into pour he -- power

he swept the Government out of

office. It was a massive win, 55

seat majority that you can see

there. The smallest win came when

Labor ended to coalition's 8 year

run in 1985. Bb Hawke. He got over

the line five seats but enough to

get him into power. When Labor's 13

year rein in the lodge came to an

end in 1996, there's John Howard,

he did it for the he did it for the coalition with a

margin of 45 seats, another big win.

Three years ago, when the coalition

was kicked out and Kevin Rudd was

swept into off fi, Labor won by 18

seats. -- swept into office.

Tonight's prediction. It's a great

big question mark. Who will fit in

the frame by the end of the night.

We just don't know. There's a huge

night ahead. I'm going to be here

going through the numbers and results as they

results as they flow in. It's very

early days. You have fascinating

counting back there. Back in the

tally room. Thank you very much. A

lot of number crunching going on

around us as we speak. You can see

some of the numbers up and below us.

Go to Nicola Roxon first of all.

You're hearing disparages between

city and country areas and wild

swings. Yes. I think in NSW it does

look like there's going to be a big difference if you live difference if you live in the city

of Sydney compared to if you live

in regional NSW that. Will make

quite a difference because there

are a number of marginal seats in

marginal -- regional NSW. The early

results I'm getting through in

Victoria are pretty strong for us.

As we said early on, if they're

very strong that will make a

difference. Queensland, however, is

looking pretty grim. Some of my

other colleagues might have views

on that, but early on that's looking

looking pretty bad. Let's look at

Gilmore now. The computer is saying

that it has been won. Yeah.

The redistribution made this a

Labor seat but it looks as though

Joanna gash for Liberal Party hold

it anyway. She was a very popular local member. local member. Get that phone.

Congratulations to Joanna. She's

just held on through various

redistributions. She's been one of

the great stayers. Has the a Labor

seat so Joanna has taken a seat off

the Labor Party, congratulations to

her. What we're seeing is I think

all of those seats which were

notionally Labor notionally Labor are probably going

to be won by the coalition which

means the coalition's grabbed a

swag of NSW and Queensland. What

Labor hasn't won any seats yet. As

I said earlier, Labor has to win

seats to hang on to Government.

Your thoughts. Peter's calling

seats. We're taking a time to see

the figures, but there's no doubt

Gilmore was going to be Gilmore was going to be extremely

tough tore us -- tough for us.

Joanna is extremely popular. It's

notionally ours because of the

redistribution but at the same time

Liberal Party MP, Labor candidate,

always going to be difficult. I

think we have a trend for tonight.

What's going to happen, we'll have

a move towards the coalition and

exclus -- excuses from Mark. Let's

go to Bonner now.

That is a - that is a seat that we

weren't totally certain of. So vase

ta, who was a member before frbgs

has obviously been doing well. It's

a very tight seat, tight polling

booth. So that is a good reflection.

That shows that even in Brisbane,

where we didn't think the sting

would be as bad, the sting is just

as bad and people are not happy.

Can I make a point? If coalition

wins seats like Bonner the

coalition will win the election. I

wouldn't call Bonner yet, but if

the coalition is now starting to

take seats in Brisbane - I said

earlier the coalition will take

seats in north Queensland, some on

the northern outskirts of Brisbane.

To win the election coalition has

to take seats in Brisbane. If it

takes Bonner then it will take

Government. Look at that. Even with

this one, big swing. 13% counted so

a substantial number. You've got to

notice what's happening. Double

figure swings against Labor and 7

or 8% back to the greens but it's

not enough to take away the full

extent of the antiLabor swing. No. Corangamite.

Sarah Henderson I think was pretty

confident about this. Labor thought

they could hold off the challenge

from her because this is Julia Gillard's home state but that

doesn't seem to be working in Corangamite.

It's a swing of 1.5% against Labor,

not to Labor which they would have

expected in Victoria. The Liberals

with 50.3%. If that continues,

Sarah will win that seat. Pretty

tight. I think this is pretty tight

but it is a worrying sign. It's

obviously not consistent with some

of the early figures we're getting

in McEwen and La Trobe. We may even

see massive variations in Victoria

let alone the regional city. Mark,

we're looking at the numbers from

Flynn now. Chris Trevor launched a

pretty scathing attack after the

attack of the dumping of Kevin Rudd.

How much do you take on board the

result there? I don't think that's

got anything to do with his result

T biggest issue up there has been

one of the LNG plants, employment

and preparing tore the mining

sector is a big deal up there.

There was a big proposal for a LNG

mining development which got caught

up in environmental processs. There

isn't a Rudd factor in that? How

can you say there's a Rudd factor?

All I can say to you is in terms of

that seat, it's a disappointing

result. Hang on a second. It's a

very disappointing result. He's a

great candidate but there are local

factors. Snie'll tell you what

happened. Trevor was a good

candidate and good bloke. They got

rid of Kevin Rudd and got everybody

offside. Brought in the ETS and

mining tax and stopped the LNG

plant. That is true. Barnaby has

been campaigning in Flynn against

the emissions trading scheme. Let's

keep number crunching. Barnaby, we

have to keep number crunching. I

was going to say we ought to get

this how the of the way early since

you raised Kevin Rudd. The bottom

line is this. Win, lose or draw, if

Labor had not changed from Rudd to

Gillard they'd be 10 to 15 seats

worse off tonight. Doesn't matter

what you think about Julia Gillard,

whether you supported her mark or

didn't T bottom line is they would

have done much worse under Rudd.

Everybody knows that. His polls was

deteriorating and he would have

wiped tout Labor if -- Labor Party

if he'd remained as leader. You'll

see some people have a got at ha

bib and others. It would be easy to

say they should have kept Rudd. No,

he was a disaster. They did the

right thing getting rid of him. We

wouldn't be talking about a close

result if Kevin Rudd was in power.

We will talk about it through the

course of the night. In the

Queensland seats Labor is doing

very badly and Liberal national are

doing very well. Pretty disastrous

for Labor in Queensland. Not a

surprise but a disaster that. Seat

will go to the lieb natural

National Party. George is a great

councillor. Heaps of money thrown

into that seat by the Labor Party

just like Flynn. Good local

candidates working hard bringing it

home. The other thing you have to

take into account in those seats is

the RSPT. These are coal mining

seats. Labor could have done

nothing more to inflame those seats

than to try and bring in that

resources super profits tax. I

would expect Labor will be punished

very much in those coal mining

areas. Let's look at what happened

on the ground. In the last couple

of weeks watching the Liberal Party

- LNP absolutely slam the Labor

Party over state issues. Let's be

clear about it. The privatisation

has been top of mining Queensland.

Go to your ads, Barnaby. Go to your

adds. Look at your ads. For the

moment, let's keep pileing through

these results so we can give the

folks at home a little bit of fact

ahead of the argument as well. We

see in Macquarie.

Let's go to Gilmore. Think we can

call Macquarie. I'd be prepared to

call that as Louise Markus victory.

Especially after moving over,

changing seats. Gilmore. I think we

can call Gilmore as well.

Notionally Labor because of the

redistribution. Two labour losses

we can call in NSW. Are you

prepared to accept that? Think in

Macquarie it's one of those seats

that is spread across a very

different part of NSW, so you've

got the blue mountains end of it

and city end and a country bit.

It's going to be odd. It's a hard

one. Those two are both in the

handful that we count notionally as

Labor where we don't have a sitting

member. The same thing in Macarthur,

swing of nearly 6% against Labor.

They're ones I think it will be

very hard for us to hold. I'd have

to go back to what - disagree with

Michael. Michael, there's many ways

you can change a tyre but puting

the car on its roof is a bad way to

do it T way they changed to Kevin

Rudd just put everybody offside.

They are dirty about it up in

Queensland. I'm making the point

that if Labor had kept Kevin Rudd

as the leader they would have done

worse tonight than they will do

with Gillard as leader. Michael is

right. It's the biggest furphy of

this election campaign, that Labor

is paying a price for Kevin Rudd

being tossed out in Queensland. The

reason Kevin Rudd is not leader

today is Labor because Labor were

going to lose 10 to 12 seats

minimum under Kevin Rudd. Welcome

to the this evening's proceedings.

And a long-standing - Let's go out

there right now. Tracy Grimshaw is

at headquarters for Julia Gillard

tonight. What is the mood like

there? Somber I'd say. I can tell

you that the numbers have swelled a

little bit. There are some of the

party faith thafl have begun to

filter in in here. They're probably

outnumbered roughly ten to one by

media but the bar is open so we

think people will be starting to

arrive soon. The last time I spoke

to you I said that Julia Gillard

was here. She's now, we think she's

at the Hilton hotel next door. It's

all part of one Melbourne

convention centre complex. We're

told she's in a city hotel. We can

tell you it was initially thought

that her parents would be watching

the count from their home in

Adelaide. It's a big deal for them

to fly. They're both in their 80s

but we know that they are now with

her. Her sister Allison has also

come over from South Australia.

Allison's son and daughter, Tom is

here with his partner. It's a family affair for the Gillards.

They're in a hotel room we think at

the Hilton next door. I can tell

you a little later if you look

behind me, you can see a taped off

area. It's right in front of the

stage, about 7 seats with reserved

on it. We understand that's where

Julia Gillard, Prime Minister Julia

Gillard's family will be. Obviously

her partner as well a little bit

later when she turns up. But we are

told that that won't be for some

hours yet. I must tell you when I

interviewed her in Canberra on

Thursday she told me to bring a

sleeping bag. I think she said

something like no result until

midnight. Obviously she doesn't

have a crystal ball but she's

obviously expecting a long night.

Thanks for that. From Julia Gillard

central we'll go to Tony Abbott

central. Peter Overton, you're at

the four seasons is hotel in Sydney.

Thank you. Still early days in the

count and early days leer as well.

I think there's about 60 members of

the media here and some Liberal

staffers still got an echo -- echo

here. John and jan et Howard are on

the guest list and angry Anderson.

He likes Tony Abbott so he's been

invited. Got me thinks it was less

than three years ago that the Kevin

07 train rolled through and the

Opposition. Unstable leadership,

Nelson, and suddenly late last year

Tony Abbott was thrust into

Opposition leader. You could have

got very long odds less than three

years ago we'd be standing here

with Tony Abbott having a real

chance at being the next Prime

Minister of Australia. We'll keep

checking in with you. Tony Abbott

watching the coverage from his

northern beaches home in his seat

with his three daughters and his

wife. I'm sure some friends but

he'll be here later on. When who

gos. Someone remarked a little

unkindly before that he was perhaps

the Steven Bradbury of the Liberal

Party considering the last couple

of years but

of years but Laurie had a very

cheeky question for you -- for you

before you go. Yes, I was wondering

if Mark Latham has turned up. Fresh

from not voting. I missed the

question. Just ask it qen. I wonder

if Mark Latham had turned up. No,

but I have seen a come of 60

minutes crew but no Mark Latham yet.

But I'll let you know. I'll But I'll let you know. I'll

probably hear him before I see him.

Now let's go to Michael Usher.

Thank you very much. I thought -

there's no Latham in this

environment either. Quick here,

House of Representatives, these

numbers are changing pretty fast

now. The big screen. These are

numbers being fed from the

electoral commission, confirmed

numbers. A bit of a guide numbers. A bit of a guide for you,

too. This isn't just for effect.

The numbers you see over here are

18. You can see there are two

independents, the fellows in grey.

Why they're all bald with crossed

arms but they represent the

politicians. You can have a look on

the Government side right now.

Confirmation of 19 seats all those

serious looking men in red. Nicola

Roxon is upset with you. Where are

all the women? I thought we had all the women? I thought we had a

lot of women in Parliament these

days and we have male streakers.

I'll duck to the ward put it on our

men if you like. I'll try and do

that. Updated numbers, thought we'd

give you those. Back to you in the

tally room. I think we've got more

numbers coming in now from Capricornia.

Another industrial city, another

industrial city that's been - had

their nose out of joint by the their nose out of joint by the

mining tax, association with The

Greens has shut down fishing and a

tip they'reing between Yeppoon and

Rockhampton, which is also stirred

people up. It's a Labor Party heart

land, so that's saying something. In Victoria:

At the moment that's a Labor Party

pick up. I was ability to say I

this is absolutely a seat to watch.

This was not one that people would

have thought was in play. If we win

a seat like

a seat like Dunkley, and Helen is

very well-known, run it is local

community legal centre, been a

candidate before, but still, it was

going to be an unlikely one to win.

If we pick that up, that's going to

be very, very good news for us.

Let's go to western Sydney now with Lindsay.

On that vote, Fiona is looking

pretty good. I have to say, that is

western Sydney heart land. You

recall when Julia Gillard first

became leader she went up to the

Northern Territory to say she was

going to stop the boats and had

David Bradbury on her boat. That

policy was announced to try and get

him back. I have to say he's not

looking too good. Doesn't seem to

be interesting. Get La Trobe.

Lindsay is not heart land. It's

been held by the Liberal Party from

1996 to 2007. La trop:

-- La Trobe:

Swing against Labor. And Liberal

Party. With green preferences. Once

with green preferences in a seat

that has a very big green vote, all

of the hills, I wouldn't - It's a

possible Labor Party pick up.

That's a shame. I think Jason wood

is a member of Greenpeace. Probably

one of the most environmentally

conscious people in the coalition

but he's in rough touch. Just had a

message from Jason wood. There are

swings at booths and going both

ways. He's saying there's still a

long way to go. I would say in

relation to La Trobe that again

it's the illustration we're seeing.

Labor is getting swings against it

every where. The only question in

in election is can The Greens bring

it back? Can The Greens bring Labor

home in this election because Labor

aren't going to get Labor home in

in election. A swing - What we can

say now is The Greens are going to

win the seat of Melbourne. They

were favourites to win the seat of

Melbourne, so it looks as if Adam

is going to win that seat. The

other interesting one is, Anthony

Albanese is in trouble early.

Albanese could be in trouble. That

was never anticipated but it's

still an outside chance. Very

interesting early on, he's in a bit

of trouble. But it looks as if the

104 year rein in the seat of

Melbourne it looks like that's finished. Courtesy of Liberal

preferences to the greens. I think

that will be almost impossible for

Kath to win. I think that's very

sad result obviously for Labor. I

don't agree with Michael that you

will see this passed on into other

seats, for example in NSW. The

entire Victorian green machine has

been in Melbourne. They haven't

campaigned across the rest of the

state. They have put all their

money and all their energy into

that and it looks like it may pay

off but I think it's still too

early to call. No at lot of money

from -- huge amounts of money into

there. McEwen. This was always

going to be interesting.

It looks as though Cameron will not

make it in that seat. Noo this is

the seat that went to the high

court last time. It was only after

the high court had deliberated that

the Liberal Party won it. It's

going to be the hardest for the

Liberal Party to hold. In Victoria

although we had an outstanding

candidate, as you said before.

You'll have to wait for a while to

see what happens in plk union but

again green preferences coming out

against the Liberal Party there.

Chris, just quickly before we - We

all have our noses pressed very

close to the glass in this

conversation. The fact is AEC has

just gone through the - vote

count's just gone through the

million mark. There is now not a

single Australian mainland state

showing any sort of swing to Labor.

Even Victoria is Onions a 0.1 plus

for Labor. As the numbers are

coming in it's looking worse for

Labor by the minute. It's looking

extremely serious now. Get more on

that in a second but back to McEwen.

Peter Costello was saying it was

going to be difficult right from

the start but he is an excellent

candidate. You're in his campaign

headquarters tonight. Good evening.

Yes, we're here in plk union and

with Cameron, the Liberal candidate.

It's been an incredibly tight

contest. It was Australia's most

marginal seat at the last election

and already we've had more

controversy this evening. It was

held by just 31 votes by the

Liberal Party last time. We've just

had word that one of the key booths

here has actually been a problem

with the ballots. They weren't

signed by election officials which

had maez them invalid and up to 100

ballots, obviously with a margin of

31 vos will have a significant

impact. Speebing to those here it

appears as though it will go to

Labor. They're confident they will

take this seat. They need to take

this seat in Victoria. They can't

afford to lose another marginal

seat particularly if they don't

gain Melbourne. We'll come back to

you later in the evening. I want to

go back to Chris, who was getting

pretty good information on the npls.

Can you expand a little more on

that to give everyone at home a

wider perspective on where we're at.

We've count add million votes now,

that's a lot of votes. As Peter has

been saying all night, if Labor is

to survive it has to pick up seats

in Victoria, would have liked to

have picked up seats in South

Australia. But when you look at the

two party preferred figures across two party preferred figures across

mainland Australia, there is no

sign of a Labor pick up anywhere in

aggregate terms. Victoria, the

great hope for the Labor Party,

would off set those horrendous

losses showing in Queensland and

NSW. There's no movement.

Victoria's square. The only place

you're seeing a swing to Labor in

two partyed preferred terms is

Tasmania. That's not going to

result in seats. Even South

Australia was expected to be very good

good for Gillard, showing a swing

against Labor of some significance.

I think it will be interesting to

see the early Sturt Sturt, Boothby

figures where Labors expected to do

well. Before that, expand that from

your perspective that's good news

isn't it? I don't think Labor will

pick up seats in South Australia.

I've spoken to best our members in

those marginals. Think Labor will

lose seats in WA. Once those polls

start closing it's going to get

worse for Labor. Labor has to pull

back enough seats in Victoria to

reverse the losses that it's

already suffered in Queensland and

NSW. It has to win McEwen, La Trobe,

it has to hold Corangamite. I don't

see that Labor is doing well enough

to actually get these net gains. We

know Labor is actually down one in

Victoria at the moment because it's

lost Melbourne. Now, there's

another seat we ought to keep a

very close eye on here tonight when

we're looking at the greepbs

getting into the House of

Representatives. Look at the --

greens getting into the House of

Representatives. That's Denison.

The Greens are most certainly in

with a show I think in winning

another one of these heart land

seats. This will be Labor's

problems. If we the et -- can get

Denison up.

Apbl drew picking up all that swing

against Labor. This is another

opportunity I think for Labor to

actually lose, you're done a redistribution there that

distributes them two ways but

there's a possible Labor loss even

in Denison not to the Liberal Party

but to an independent. Let's look

at the numbers for Melbourne.

Liberals are giving them their

prefrpbs. Labor is not -- --

Liberals are giving them their

preferences. Labor aren't doing

well enough. It's a big win for The

Greens. I suspect if Lindsay tanner

had been running the result might

have been different but he hasn't,

The Greens have seized the

opportunity, put everything into

winning the seat and it's paid off. Brett is

Brett is in party central. It would

be the case. Good evening to you.

Hello. Yes, I think it won't be too

far now until we see Adam step into

this room which has suddenly

started filling up with green

supporters not just the free party

save rys. The bar is open around

the corner. It looks like there

could be a green victory announced

soon in the seat of Melbourne. That

is historic, the first time The

Greens have won at a general

election. It would there wart

Labor's efforts to get a majority

because it takes away a very strong

Labor strong hold in Melbourne. We

will come back to you if that is

the case to celebrate. Bennelong.

That's big rebuff to the woman who

downed John Howard at the last

election. On those figures John

will win this seat back for the

Liberal Party. Your thoughts on

that loss. Look, I think that

inevitably she was the kind of lion

slayer at the last election

bringing down John Howard. It

hasn't been traditionally a seat of

ours. It was a seat John Howard

held for 33 years. That was a

particular election. She's worked

very, very hard but there is a

higher profile lib running against

her. John has done very well. Do

you think the reason she won it

last time was because of the person

she was up against? Do you think

the voters were tired of John

Howard hurd and wanted him out, now

Howard's gone they've gone back to

the Liberal Party. I think that's

possible. I think when you have

such a big swing, I think when John

Howard was a big component in the

last election, that there is the

possibility that what is really a

traditionAl Liberal seat is now

correcting. But obviously if these

results mean we've lost Bennelong,

I'm not sure we're quite conceding

that yet, that would be bad for us.

Probably not a strange readjustment.

Ellen Fanning has been texting me

that the swings she's experienced

in Bennelong are really significant

and they're very symbolic of what's

going to happen to the Gillard

Government if it doesn't win. Ellen

Fanning can text no longer. We can

go to her right now. Good evening

to you. What are you hearing act

those swings there? Yes, I can just

hear you. The enthusiasm you can

hear behind me at the west Epping

bowels -- bowls club is not Maxine

McKew's supporters. This is

supposed to be Maxine McKew's

campaign party. There's no sign of

her. I'm told she's watching from

home. I have spoken to folks in the

Liberal Party camp and think tell

me numbers that pretty much reflect

what you are seeing there. In one

booth, where there's a thousand

votes counted, seen a 9.1% swing to

John Alexander, former tennis star

running for the Liberal running for the Liberal Party. In

another seat where they counted

about 400 vote, 8.7% swing to John

Alexander. An extraordinary night

here in Bennelong in those trends

continue you'd have to say John

would win the seat. It's

extraordinary. Just a few weeks ago,

McKew, the star recruit who knocked

off John Howard last time round and sacred Liberal sacred Liberal Party ground here

could have expected to be a

minister under her mentor Kevin

Rudd. But now I guess we are seeing

the folks tell me from the Liberal

Party HQ that they did feel a mood

among the Asian voters who make up

a big percentage of voters in this

electorate that there was disgust