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Good morning. Welcome. in

business today - recovery strategy. The International

infrastructure spending is Monetary Fund says

the best way out of the

recession. Appealing next

Japan's Kieran looking to

absorb Lion Nathan. Ditching traditional fare traditional fare for


Australia's ASX200 Australia's ASX200

climbed. Hong Kong added

2.25% and Shanghai edged up

by 3 point. In Wall Street a

positive day trade. The Dow

Jones put on 1% t Nasdaq rose

by a quater%. Europe trade

down across the board.

Germany's dax losing the most

down 1.25%. Now let's look at

what is happening with

currencies and commodities - The International Monetary

Fund top economist says

infrastructure spend sing is

the best way for Governments

to haul their economies out

of recession. The G20 has

spent an average of 2% of GDP

International Monetary Fund on economic stimulus in line

reputations. In Australia

parts much its stimulus

spending including $20 billion in cash

billion in cash handouts. But the International Monetary

Fund's chief economist Oliver

Blanchard has told the '7.30

Report' increasing

infrastructure projects is a

better opening If people

were to spend would it be

great but at this stage we

think if we put money

randomly in people's pockets

they will save most of it and

they may feel good but in

terms of what it does the

economy that is not good. We

need an increase in demand so

he want to put the money

where it is going to be

spent. His months,as the

fund's chief warns the global

economic and financial crisis

is far from over and ahead of the International Monetary

Fund and World Bank spring

meetings in Washington this

weekend . Japan's second

largest bank is warning of a

5.9 billion dollar annual net

loss. It is a sharp downgrade

from its previous prediltion

of a $1 billion profit and

the first loss in six years.

The bank blames a fall in

stock holdings in higher bad

loan costs for the expected

drop. Japan's largest

brokerage is due the announce

bad news. They are likely to

post a record net loss of

$7.2 billion for the last

functional year mainly

related to buying some of

repan brothers. In South

Korea Hyundai has a 43% drop

to $166 million offering hope

to investors. Exporters were

cushioned with higher

marketing costs and whacker

car sales. Japanese brewer

Kieran has launched a bid for

shares in Lion Nathan it does

not already own. The

high-Maher began Australian

market which operates teen

Fosters and Lion Nathan has

London been citeds appealing

the Japanese brewers looking

to expand beyond their home

market. Lion Nathan has been

checked by Kieran which want

the soak up shares with the

company that engist a duopoly

with the Fosters group

Kieran is looking to buy

growth they have not having

in the Japanese market. The

Japanese market has been

pretty much dead in terms of

volume growth over the last

decade or so. We they that

Kieran is very acquisitive at

the moment. Its long-term

strategy is to increase the

proportion of its sales

outside of its domestic

market Line that nan asked

for a tradingality on

In February Lion Nathan

scrapped a bid by Coca-Cola,

something that might be back

on the table if the Kieran

acquisition is successful.

The deal if completed will

give the new entity

ammunition for Coca-Cola

which would give them 60% of

Australia's $7 billion soft

drink market. Analysts say

such a move is unlikely but

it could happen later this

year Somewhere down the line

this is certainly not the

last we will see in the

Aussie beverage market. If a

Coca-Cola Amatil Fosters combination makes sense those

are the to most logical deals

but it is certainly not the

last deal out there But the Kieran Lion Nathan combination would need

approval if the Foreign Investment Review Board and

watchdog has confirmed it the ACCC. The competition

will review to buy out if it

goes ahead but Vicky Melbourne does not see this

as a major hurdle Lion

Nathan has a strong

competitor in Forster's and

Coca-Cola and its joint venture partner is like to make inroads and there are a

number of other smaller

player. I do not think this acquisition will lessen

competition. Let's collect

the market action. I'm joined

by our reporter from St

George. Most share market

indices up. What helped Wall

Street overnight was a rally

in financial stocks following better-than-expected earning

from regional stocks. That

rally in financial stocks

helped offset weakness shown

in economic reports and it

helped offset nervousness

among investors about what

the Government stress tests

might reveal on 4 May. Among

the regional reports were PNC

financial services and Bank

Corps We have seen a good

profit result for many a

done We did. Amazon beat

Wall Street expectations for

the first quater. In fact its

revenue was up 18% in the

quater amid what is a

sluggish economic

environment. More on line

customers and better than

expected performance for

independent Kindle Reader

helped drive perform cans but

the amount done US is growing

faster than the European

market Will regional markets

follow Wall Street higher?

Most likely. We are likely to

see our Aussie stocks open

higher particularly financial

stocks. Spy Futures indicate

the Aussie share market will

open half a per cent higher

this morning. Let's turn to

commodities. A rise in oil and gold There

and gold There has been. The

depreciation in the US dollar

overnight helping both of

those commodities. With crude

oil prices the better

performance on equities

helped crude oil because

there is the growing view

this the downturn might not

be intensifying and therefore all demand might be greater

in the future. In fact crude

oil is brush evening aside

news earlier this week that

all stock are at 19-year highs.

highs. Not until the

middle of next week is there much on the who are eye on

done but we have durable good

orders expected to post

another 4 and new home sales

are expected to stabilise.

There will be another batch

of earnings reports that

includes steer yoks, honey el and 3M.

Barack Obama has moved

his focus to credit card companies as his

administration tries the

address soaring consumer

debt. US credit card debt has

increased by 25% in the past 25 years reach incorporated

953 in January. The President

has urged credit card

companies to stop unfair rate companies to stop unfair rate

increases and to be more

transparent We are confident

that we can arrive at

something that is come sense,

something that allows the

industry to continue to

provide loans and to run a

stable business model that is

not dependent on bubbles,

that is not dependent on

people getting over-extended

or finding themselves in over

their heads. I trust that

those in the industry who

want to act responsible blil

when gauge with us in a constructive fashion Barack

Obama aired some of his

concerns at a White House

meeting with 13 executives

from stop banks and companies thattish true cars. thattish true cars. Toyota

has retained the top global

car spot despite a 28% dive

in first quater sales. The

company delivered over 1.5

million vehicles in the thee

month to March just ahead of

German rival volume

involvement Toyota is

suffering from falling sales

and Volkswagen is benefiting

from government in China from government in China and

Brazil. Fiat has reported a

first quater loss of $537

million by Fiat's C EO says

the result will not affect

negotiation was the embattled

US car giant which face as

deadline next week to

complete the deal. General Motors will shut 13 plants in

the US for a number of weeks

as it continues to trim

costs. The moifs aimed to further reduce further reduce inventories.

General Motors has until 1

June to restructure debt and

when union concessions or be

forced into bankruptcy. To

look at how currency

movements may impact business

decisions I'm joined by John

noon yafnlt Firstly as typically

strong currencies like the

Australian dollar weaken is

that making takeovers and

emergenciers more attractive

in these nations?

Yes. The Australian dollar is

very, very good value as

compared to what just about a

year ago when it was trading

closer the parity with the

US. The Australian dollar is

one of the weaker currencies

around the world over the

last 6 months so that would

make it very attractive

particularly considering the

fact our economy is holding

up better than other

economies around the OECD We

have seen in the Kieran-Lion

Nathan bid over the last 10

months Australian dollars

shed a third of its value

against the yen That is

right. At one point it lost

more against the yen than

against the US dollar. The Australia y was trading over 100 against the yen about a year ago and we have been

down below 60 this year so it

is about a 40% discount. Apart from

Australia where else is

relatively cheap at the

moment? The British pound was

another very, very - a

currency that loss at huge

amount of ground. Prospects there are not that great at

the moment. They just came

out t UK came out with their

budget this week. They are

going to have to borrow - the

UK Government is going to

have to borrow a lot in the

next few years. That will

keep the pound depressed but

some analysts feel that it is

good value because it has

gone down so much and the UK

economy is showing signs it

may recover before the

eurozone economy for instance

and the New Zealand dollar

has depreciated quite a bit.

That is coming back a bit but

again the economic prospects

for New Zealand are negative at the

at the moment. The Government

is not able to provide

stimulus because their fiscal

situation which means

interest rates in New Zealand

probably will have to come

down further that will keep the New Zealand dollar

underwater for a while.

Let's look at the overnight

movements. Nagging concerns

about the financial system is

still keeping investors from

taking on too much risk so

how much of how much of an

impact did the International

Monetary Fund forecast have

on currencies? There are two

die very fwent views out

there at the moment. The

currencies t risk currencies

loss at bit of ground when

the International Monetary

Fund report came out on

Wednesday but we saw those

currencies recover a bit. The

Australian dollar is back up

at 71.5 cents against the US.

The US dollar the safe haven

currency that does well at

time of risk aversion, the US

dollar lost over 1% overnight

so there are a few optimists

out there who despite the

dire warn ins coming from the International Monetary Fund,

despite poor US data last

night including housing data

fold this the worst is over

so it is time to get the

money off the sidelines and

back into risk. But there is

an equally large contingent

who believes this is a bear

market rally we are seeing in

assets and there is more bad

news to,and we will series

being aversion on the eyes

again. But for the time being

the openty miss are doing

quite well and we are seeing

the dollar not making strong

ground tyen is stable and

some of the more risky

currencies are doing okay

You mentioned the yen is stable. Do you think lit stay

that way for sometime or will

it rise? My views that is

the yen will rise. If we do

series being aversion come

back in the play lit rise.

Reports out of Japan indicate

that the life companies who

export huge amounts of

capital by large amounts of currency year after year are

keeping their money close to

home. There are reports that

some liver companies will put

up to 80% of their

investments in JGBs so this

means there will be a lack of

buying by foreign currencies

by Japanese investors, the

real money invest doors and

that will keep upward

pressure on the yen and that

will come through if the risk

of aversion starts the rise

and if we see equity markets

go down. My feeling is that

the yen will strengthen

towards 95 or stronger With

sufficient a volatile environment out it there is

highly likely risk aversion

will come back into the market, because, you know,

you just do not know where it

is going to go. I is a very

tricky time for investors to

decide had to bet on a more

sustained recovery on

financial markets, a decision

for a risk move? I completely

agree that is why it is very

difficult to forecast what

will happen with the

currencies at the moment. We

had a tug of warring go on

between some of the investors

particularly the hedge funds

coming off the sidelines

looking for his being buying

high a queeld in currencies like the Australian dollar

and real money funds, pension

funds like the Japanese

livers keeping their money

close fers keeping their money

close to If the markets can

get through without taking

too much of a tumble we can

so a euphoric stabilising

situation go on but if the

stress tests reveal the banks

could do with a lot more

capital all the assets, the

asset markets could become

depress To touch on the

meetings at the weekend -

what can be expected to be

seen in foreign exchange at

the meeting of the finance

officials at the G7 in

Washington? It comes on the heel of the recent G20 in

London, I think what they

will say in their communique

will be similar. They will

probably urge countries not to get involved in

competitive devaluations to

foster their economies but

other than that I think it

will be pretty quiet on the

foreign exchange front coming

from the G7. Thank you for

your time today John My


Weakening demand for fuels

has dragged down profits add

India's Reliance Industries

for a second successive quater. Net profit in the

three months to March came in

at $709 million a drop of

9.2% from a ear you earlier.

Reliance derives 70% of its

revenue from exports ever

petrol products. Analysts

predict at pick-up in profits

as the company's gas projects

come online. After a long

regulatory battle China has

won approval to buy large

parts of Australian mining

company Oz Minerals. The

Australian Treasurer gave

China's Minmetals the

go-ahead after it revised its

offer to exclude the

prominent hill mine in South

Australia. The Government has

imposed conditions on the

take over which it says are

designed to protect around

2000 Australian jobs. One of Australia's biggest trading

partners has indicated that

iron ore prices will have to

fall this year. The president

of China's Ansteel has told

business leaders in Perth his

country's steel industry is

losing money and West Australian producers will

have to take a hit. Ansteel

is China's second-biggest

steelmaker and wants to

become one of the largest buyers of Western Australia's iron ore. Today one of the

most powerful figures in

China addressed the West

Australian business community

an made the case for a

reduction in iron ore prices TRANSLATION: Starting

from and this year every single steelmaker in China

made a loss. Miners and steel

mills are currently locked in

negotiations to settle

contract prices of iron ore

for the new financial year.

Last year contract prices

rocketed the a recorded 90 a

ton with predictions for this

year's prices to drop by up

to 40%. While that one favour

Ansteel's margins it is still

working to gain a foot hold

in the Midwest. The company

owns 10% of Midwest miner

Jindalbi Metals and has made

an application to the Federal

Government to take a 36%

stake in the company This

will be a an Australian

project with a major Chinese

partner a new infrastructure

The Chairman and veteran

miner George Jones says recent anti-China sentiment

has harmed business

negotiations. I think that

the reaction of people who

think there is over

investment by China is wrong

and I think we should encourage more investment

from them. China's going to

great lengths to show its cracking down on fake

products but the market for counterfeit goods is a

lucrative one and sellers are

not stopping without a fight.

It is estimated global

companies lose more than $60

became yn annually due to

counterfeiting an piracy in

China. In a

made-for-television moment

Chinese officials fired up the woodchipers in one-day

they say destroying more than

40 million pirates DVD and

bootleg books and in Beijing

and dozens of other cities.

The DVDs being destroyed some

are if biggest box office

titles in Hollywood but none

of them are new releases.

None of these are are

currently replying in

cinemas, in Hollywood, in the

US or anywhere inure oath

even though you can readily

buy them on the street corner

in China and they cost less

than $1.50 a box. But

official say it is a dramatic

to China's commitment to protecting intellectual property TRANSLATION: We

must create an atmosphere

where possession of intellectual property is encourage And to do that

authorities are taking on

some of China's most

tenacious vend yorts in one

of the most famous

destinations for fake goods.

Beijing's Silk Street Market

where the offenders are being

shut down for a week at a

time. It is parts of an out

of court settlement with some

of the biggest brands.

Customers, mostly Westerners,

only want fakes. TRANSLATION:

Our work is like changing the

water in the fish tafnlg it

will take time No more

fakes? No This woman only

sells Silk Street own product

lines these days but business

is slope. Perhaps that is why

some convenient doctors

accused of selling

counterfeit are not giving up

quietly, storming the offices

of the will youers

representing the five luxury

brands accusing them of being

puppets of foreigners. But

the silk street merchants who

do not break the law there

are awards to the complex

management. It seems ending

the sale of counterfeit s in

China might have to be done

one convenient doctor at a

time. Experts warn one

consequence of a weak

Japanese economy could be a

decline in the nation's

health. With incomes falling

many people cut corners when

it comes the eating well so

where do increasing number of

of Japanese to go eat when

they are trying to tighten

their belts? Lunchtime in

down town Tokyo. American,

fast and cheap, a golden

arches t golden tickets for

this job seeker They were

decreasing prices, that is

why I come here to get lunch.

Everything is so cheap

here Japan is biting into

more burgers t recession's

tough times have been a cash

cow for the king of butters.

MacDonalds in Japan posted an

historic record of more than

$5 billion US in 2008. It is

not just dollar menu says

Mack done qualdz but the

whole deal TRANSLATION: Our

product matches Val u for

price which is why customers

support us But you will

eventually pay says this

doctor. The McDonald diet is

upside down? Yes. He says the

Jan these diet of fish and

veggies is ideal for the

country's infamous longevity

and health but it is Rapley

on the decline in this

recession. On the increase,

with all-beef patties and

infamous waistline You

should choose food not like

this but that is good for

your body. Thickerton average

Japanese man this man

diagnosed with high blood

pressure. Doctors ordered him

the walk and hey off

theburgers. Transanswer the

high children love hamburger,

I hope they stop eating them

because the traditional diet

is better. The traditional

Japanese meal is low not and

quite healthy but it also

costs at least twice as much

as a value meal. It is why

restaurant bankruptcies in

Tokyo especially Japanese

restaurant are on track to

make records this year a

stark contrast to McDonald's

success. Macdonald

investigates a balanced life

tile. For a lunch crowd

trying to pinch pennies in

this economic downturn that

is a tough sell Let's look

at what is making head lines

around the region - the

Standard reports Hong Kong

tycoon Richard Lee will pocket pig dividends in the

wake of his failed attempt

the I've is the PPCW. The

'Financial Times' says

Thailand's pipe is prepared

the lift a state of emergency

in days but ruled out early

elections. The 'Wall Street

Journal' looks at why the US Treasury department silenced the pang of American about

its troubled buy-out deal of

Meryl Lynch. That is although

for this edition of Business

Today. If you would like the

look back at any of other

interviews please visit our

web site. We look forward to

your feedback. I'm Wittney

Fitzsimons, thank you for

joining me. Enjoy your day. Closed captions by CSI