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Lateline Business -

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(generated from captions) indigenous organisations in

central Australia say their

programs for people in need are

being put at risk by the extraordinary amount of red

tape required by all levels of

government. The NPY women's

kourn which delivers services

including dealing with domestic

violence and petrol sniffing

says its work is being

strangled by bureaucracy. Sara Everingham reports from

Darwin. The NPY Women's Council

represents women from remote

communities in Central

Australia, WA and the APY lands

in northern SA, known as the

tri state region. The council

delivers programs to

communities with around 6,000

people. Its clients are high

risk. Since 2007, six

Aboriginal women in the

council's area have died from

domestic violence. The need

here is great, but the location

makes funding extremely complicated. We're dealing with

a huge number of funding

sources, probably more than 50

at the moment. We're funded by

the State s for a variety of

work. It's cross-border women's

organisation that doesn't fit

easily into a little pigeon

hole. The council receives

grants from four different

governments - the reporting

requirements are

overwhelming. Staff who are delivering domestic violence

services, rescuing abused

children, rescuing youngsters

who are suffering various

stages of brain deterioration

and anti-social behaviour as a

result of petrol sniffing and

the many other services that

the Women's Council deliver s

are hampered by the reporting requirements. Marcia Langton

says there should be a trie

State authority in Australia to deal with the problems and the

funding requirements. If the

governments are serious about

protecting women and children,

then they ought to be investing

in this organisation andern

suring that the organisation - and ensuring the that the

organisation has all the

support it needs to operate

effectively. But even groups operating in one jurisdiction

face a similar problem. In the

Northern Territory, the mournt

Theo outstation north-west of

Alice Springs was set up to

combat petrol sniffing. It

deals with 36 different funding

grants and says the

putting key services at administrative burden is

risk. The level at which we can

or certainly our youth workers

can respond to crises among

young people and I am talking

life threatening situations -

if you have a team that are

constantly trying to, you know,

write down numbers, collect

data, make reports, they're

utterly exhausted. Previous Ministers for indigenous

affairs have made un fulfilled

promises to red the red drn -

cut st red tape. The current

Minister, Jenny Macklin, says

she is trying to pool the

funding to into one agreement.

The Women's Council says if the

Government is serious about

close ing the gap, the red tape

must go. A quick look at the

weather - light showers in

Melbourne and Hobart. Showers

and storms in Perth. Sunny

after morning frost in Canberra

and Sydney. Fine in Adelaide,

Darwin and Brisbane. Lateline

Business coming up in a moment

but if you would like to look

back at tonight's interview with Cynthia Callard or review any of our stories or

transcripts, you can visit our

website. Now here is Lateline

Business with Ali Moore. Thanks. Tonight - first

iron ore, now coal. A collapse

in demand forces BHP to accept

sharply lower prices. There

still is some downside

potential to prices for met

lurjal coal in particular as

well as thermal coal. The good

news economy - confidence jumps

on the recession that never

was. The reason was we were

about to have a recession and

they heard last twheek we

didn't have a recession. And a

big tax break for small

business. If there's no

interest and there's an

arrangement to make the

paimentds it's certainly going

to help small business a lot.

First to the markets and a

surge in commodity prices

pushed Australian share shairs

to another 7-month high. The

All Ords closed above 4,000

paints. The ASX 200 climbed

2.25% on gains in energy and

mining stocks. The rally

continued across the region. In

Japan the Nikkei added%. The

hang essential surged 4%. And

in London the FTSE is also

higher. While BHP Billiton

continues to battle China over

iron ore prices, the miner has

managed to complete most of its

coking coal contracts. And the

news is not good but that is

not surprising. BHP has

accepted a hefty 58% cut to

this year's prices and analysts

warn there could be worse to

come. Desley Coleman reports.

Used in the steel making

process, demand for coking coal

has collapsed. There still is

some downside potential to

prices for metallurgical coal,

in particular as well as

thermal coal. We see that

mainly due to there being an

overfly in the market. BHP is

the world's biggest exporter of

coking coal. Back in April it

warn ed that this year's

production could drop by as

much as 15%. The reality is

that there just isn't the

demand for steel and this is an

integral part of the steel

making process. So with steel

being cut back as much as it

has been and is likely to be in

the sort of non-Asian markets,

there really is a concern about

demand. It's the first setback

for the coal mine nertion years, which extract year after

year of strong price rises

during the boom. It has seen

last year a rise of over 200%

for high quality coking coal,

particularly what we're talking

about. And you no it's been

rising strongly with the rising

global steel demand, which

reached a peak last year but we

have now seen really savage

cuts. Those savage cut also

also flow through to national

income and the Government's

bottom line. Australia's

commodities fore caster ABARE

warns that export income will

be down 42% on the 36 billion

dollars earned last year. Ta>>

time of the Budget, the

Government had a 13% fall in

what they call the terms of

trade, the Trisho wean our export and our import

prices. And that was going to

cut 3% off income growth. Now

so it doesn't effect productivity directly but that

pushing down mining investment

and company tax reseats and

affects the income of Australians. And Chris Caton is most worried about the decline

in mining investment. He says

the size of those cuts will be

a key factor in determines the

depth and severity of the

current downturn. Households for now at least are betting

the downturn will be relatively

mild. News that Australia avoid

add technical recession saw

consumer confidence boast its

biggest monthly prize fliez two

years. The stimulus payments

also helped but retailers are worried about what will happen

when the money runs out. They

have one eye on tomorrow's

unemployment figures. If

they're bad, shoppers'

confidence should prove short

lived. Finance correspondent

Phillip Lasker reports. This

shop floor is empty now but the

crowds could be making a

comeback if the surge in

consumer confidence means

anything. Westpac's consumer

confidence index shot up more

than 12% in June, to levels not seen since before the

recession. The reason was that

we were about to va recession

and they heard last week that

we didn't have a recession. We

shouldn't get too carried away

with month to month figures but

these figures do provide some

evidence of the benefit of

economic stimulus. And its

impact on consumer confidence. While consumers

didn't feel much better about

their current circumstances,

they're much more confident

about the future. It all helped

boost the stock market and the Australian dollar. But

sentiment doesn't always

translate into transactions.

The mid-year sails are well

under way and now that the Government's cheques are spent

or saved, retailers expect

cautious consumers to bide

their time. There might be

inclined to spend at Christmas.

We should see a very

substantial Christmas this

year. But a report by Access

Economics says consumer also

cut back and it's forecast very

weak growth, below 1%, for the

next two financial years. A far

cry from the more than 4%

growth during boom times in the

2008 financial year. There were

technical reasons why we didn't

have a negative growth

quartiner March. But I expect

the technical reasons that

helped March be adverse for

June. I don't think we're out of the woods on a recession. I

think the really concerning

period for all dere-tail lers

be the first two quarters of

2010. >>St because the economy

is slowing and that confidence

killer - rising umentd is

stalking. In fact, we may get a

taste of it tomorrow.

Unemployment is expected to

rise back towards 6% after a

month's respite. There's also

promising signs for the housing

market, with home loans rising

for a 7th consecutive month.

Record low interest rates and

the higher first home owners

grant helped loans for owner

occupiers rise near ly 1% in

April. Investors are also back

in a big way. The value of loan

s secured by investors surged

nearly 9%. Nor a look at the

day on the market I spoke

earlier to David Halliday from

Macquarie Private Wealth. David

Halliday, another 7-month high

for the market today. How much

of that was rising oil and

metals prices? A fair bit.

Plefnt oi of smiles on the face

of the the people around here.

A big part was due to metals

and oil price f.s we take for

example BHP, Rio Tinto and

Fortescue Metals, the rises in

those stocks alone contributed

25 of the 89 poifns gain - so

almost a quartiner just those

three stocks. Woodside was up

1.5%, Santos was up 4% and

clearly that is just a

reflection of the oil price

moving over $70 and people

being a bit more optimist

European Union on the outlook

for base metals and commodity

prooss more generally going forward. More optimistic about

the outlook for prices but was

there also a little bit of

speculation about where the

Chinese might invest

next? They're left a little bit

short now, and we've seen a big

run up in most of the small

iron ore player s pre

dominantly base ed in WA - the

Murchison, the gin Dalby and at

the bigger - end the Fortescue

have had a good run. More

broadly that probably extends

to base metal s place and oil

and gas players because China

is starting to look like

they're left short of asset s particularly in that space at

the moment. Given Australia's

proximity it is a very good

easy place for them to

look. But the joy in the mine

irrelevance was not shared by

Oz Minerals ahead of the vote

on min metals. That -

Minmetals. It is a very high

stakes game that one. Reports

of competing proposals hitting

the table at Oz Minerals over

the past three or four days

maybe a case of too little, too

late. But certainly the

company's 1.2 billion dollars

in debt does roll over or need

to be re refinanced next week.

I would have thought that shareholders would have voted

on the caution but it was only

two or three months ago it

looked like the company would

going to hit the wall. Without

a compelling re capitalise

Asian program, I think that the

certainty of the Minmetals

proposal and leaving prominent

Hill as their key asset with

plenty of cash for expansion

and acquisitions it would be and acquisitions it would be

hard for shareholders to look

past that 11th hour proposal

that is hitting the table. And reflecting that, the share

price went against the trend

today? It was down about Dr Two

cents back to 89 cents but well

and truly off the lows in the

40s and even the 30 cent in the

worst part of the market back

in the early part of this year.

It has been a good run over the

past three or four months and

people are now starting to come

to the the view if the company can consummate this deal, end

with ad 600 million in cash and

a good asset, then potentially

the earnings upside for this

company if the copper price

keeps going up could be into

the $1 or $2 range. What about

the surge in consumer

confidence today? How did that

play out in the market? That

was impressive. The biggest

leap in 22 years and big moves

in the stocks. We saw

Woolworths and s we farmers up

1%. But more important ly

Harvey Norman and David Jones

up 3 and 5% respectively.

That's where clearly that

con#150u78er confidence number

dwsh - consumer confidence

number does kick in. We've had

a fiscal stimulus package

that's encouraged people to get

out and spend and the

unemployment number has only

moved up to around that 5.5%

mark against forecast of 8%. Probably some caution in there

against the fact that that

stimulus package will run out

or won't be extended beyond

this point. Certainly rates

look like they're move up, not

down, or staying platd for a

little white while. With the

oil price at $70, the consumer

Budget if unemployment does

start to rise over the next six

months might be squeeze add

bit. And the banks had a very

solid day today. It is probably

hard to explain given the

cyclical move we've seen in the

market in the past week. People

are moving to the large

resource stocks and the energy companies but the banks haven't

missed out. Today most of the

banks were up which around

2.5%, with the exception of NAB

which was up 2% but still a

very reasonable day. The banks contributing around 20 points

to the gain. So banks an

resources doing most of the

heavy lifting in the market. I

think you can only describe it

as the fact that new money must

have been coming into the

market, it wasn't a retation of

banks to resources. They went

up in Harmony and that probably reflects people starting to

move money into the market

again. Thank you for talk

toution. Thank you. To the

other major movers - Bluescope

Steele jumped 10%. >>Sh

With China's apparent

disquiet at being spurned by

Rio Tinto, what does it mean

for future trade relations with

China for both Rio and even for

Australia? China's concern

comes against the backdrop of

the country's growing economic

muscle. And in a climate where

global trade is being hailed as

essential to recovery from the

economic crisis. With the G20

leaders committing themselveses

to trying to reach agreement in

the Doha round of trade talks

and to resisting protectionism.

One man well placed to assess

the global trade outlook is

Robert Lawrence, the Professor

of international trade at

Harvard University. He is

currently visiting Sydney at a

guest of the US study

centre. Professor Robert Lawrence, welcome to Lateline

Business. Thank you very

much. If we can start with the

issue of the moment of the

apparent Chinese wrath over

their rejection by Rio Tinto,

the words have been very

strong, but does this really

have broader implication s for

the trade relationship between

the big iron ore miners and

China or indeed for Australia?

And China? Well they're clearly

upset with what has happened

but I think it tells us

something firstly about how

quickly markets are turn ing

around. That's really striking

that this deal which looked

reasonable at one price a few

months ago doesn't look

reasonable now. I think the

Chinese have a huge need for

stable relationships around the

world and that is not going to

change. This is a bump in the

road but if you look at the entire Chinese trade strategy

and indeed their foreign

investment strategy, it is

basically drive quen by their

huge need voracious need for

raw materials. And that is

going to be there and I think

ultimately the underlying

realities will dictate there

will be a strong relationship

between the two countries. This

financial crisis has really

highlighted China's I guess

first of all wealth, relative

wealth, the huge foreign currency reserves and I mean

it's propping up the US

Government deficit at the

moment. And also its desire for

resources. How do you see

China's future changing the

global power balance, if you

like? Well, clearly China is an emerging player and its

importance is going to grow

over time. I think its ability

to command financial resource

currently does give it

leverage. I think its emergence

as a player in the World Trade

Organisation has been

significant. So, yes, this is

the Biggin ing of the future in

which - beginning of the future

in which China is a huge player

in the global economy. And what

are the implication s, particularly

for America of that

change? Well, I think it will

take a lot of adjustment on the

part of the US. The financial

crisis is going to weaken the

United States and its ability

to act unilaterally . And so I

see in fact in the foreign

policy of President Obama a

warranted recognition of the importance of multi lateral cooperation for the United

States. And that's a change.

We've seen mitt the trading

system, we're seeing it in the

G20. This is a world in which

the United States independently

or the United States together

with the European Union can

dictate what happens. So we're

going have to play and

recognise the interests of

these big players like

China. You talk about multi

lateral trade there. But isn't

one of the issues that come out

of this crisis the risk of

rising protection ism, or the

G20 leaders stood in London in

April hand on hearts and said

we must not be protectionist.

But the reality is somewhat

different, isn't it? Actually I

still think the big pictd sur

that there is a universal

recognition of the dangers of

protectionism. And that's one

of the reasons why this crisis

hopefully is not going to

repeat the 1930s. Because people intellectually

understand the importance of

maintaining open markets and in

fact in terms of the global

chains that - supply chain s

that have been developed have

the real interest in

maintaining open market. It is

fraying at the edges. Yes,

you're right, there was a

pledge not to take protectionist action but

there's a lot of wiggle room in

the language. And countries

actually still have a lot of

scope to take measures which

don't con cra - contravene the

rules of the World Trade

Organisation, so government

procurement is a great case in

point - which is becoming an

issue in this country. Yes, a

big issue everywhere. Now,

there is a government

procurement agreement among the

developed countries, so so they

can't discriminate against products coming from one

another. But the developing

countries haven't signed that

agreement. So it's perfectly

within the legal right of the

United States not to buy Indian

rail road ties or Chinese products through government

purchases. And what does that

mean down the track, this fraying around the edges in

terms of global trade which is

already forecast to decline

some 10% as a result of the

crisis longer term where does

the fraying ends? I think the

key question is how quick can

the recovery come. We can live

with a little fraying in a

sense if we get a

recovery. What is your best

tip, though? Do you think we're

in the scarier or we're close

er to being out of the woods? The decline was so

sharp, the kind of inventory

cycle we've seen where suddenly

demand seized up and people

don't put in Nair oorders and

we've seen it reverberate

through global supply chains an

we've seen it decline in orders

an dead mand and trade. That is

almost certain to have to reverse. Eventually people are

going to put in order,

eventually they run down the

inventory. So we will see a

recovery. I expect to see some

sort of recovery through to the

end of this year. But the

question is how sustained it is

going to be. And when it comes

to particularly the US economy

and the European economies I am

still worried. I think we will

get some recovery but

sustaining growth and

reigniting growth I think is

going to be problematic. I am

more optimistic about the

developing countries which seem

to have held their own. If you

your concern proves on the well

founded with the developed

countries with the US and

Europe, what does that mean

down if track for trade? Does

it basically spell the death

nell for complete ing a multi

lateral round like Doha, does

it means the fraying becomes

something we can't live

with? There are concerns about

protection ism but when I think

about the United States I think

our interest in trade

negotiations is actually going

grow over time. Multi lateral

or bi lateral? Both. I think if

you ask yourself the question

where will the demand come from

to reignite the US economy, the

housing market is depressed,

investment we have huge levels

of unused capacity, the

Government is currently

carrying the full load. But

it's not sustainable over a

long run period of time. So

America is going to have to

adjust, I think, through more

ex ports. And so how do you

reignite your exports? Well,

one possibly is a weaker

dollar, probably we will see

that. But the second one is to

try to encourage others to open

their markets to yur products.

So I think an American

President who is concerned

about his national interest

will want to see the global

trading system succeed. And

that's why I think par

doxically perhaps even under

difficult circumstances we're

going to re discover the importance of the world trading system in the United States. Professor Lawrence, many thanks for joining

us. You're most welcome. The

Australian tax office has won a

round of applause from the

small business community,

offering a 12-month interest

free period on outstanding

debts. The ATO says it's part

of a plan to help small

business manage cash flow

through the downturn. But the

commissioner of taxation,

Michael D'Ascenzo, is promising

a tough line on avoid ance which he says often rises

during a recession. Neal

Woolrich reports. The official

figures show GDP growth in

March but many pundits argue

the real economy is now in

recession. However, at the

national small business summit

in Melbourne, the mood was

anything but gloomy. We're

actually saying what downturn

because it hasn't really

affected news terms of

work. There's a lot of -

because we're in electrical

plumbing and carpenity trithere

is a lot of work flowing

through to us. There is more

optimism in the room than I was

expecting. It give me a lot of

hope and it means we're on the

right track. And while the tax

man rarely brings glad tidings,

even Michael D'Ascenzo did his

part to lift the mood. The

Australian Taxation Office is

offering small business a

12-month interest free period

on tax liabilities, along with

deferral of instalments for

those struggling to pay. Often

the terms of trade are

difficult. They have to pay in

a shorter time and thaet get

money back in a longer time.

And so this ability to defer

the payment date for activity

statements allow ing s you to match those different terms of

trade in a much more coherent

way. It will make a lot of

different to the small business

because when you add the

interest bill on to debt bill

the debt bill becomes higher.

So it will help small business

a lot. But Michael D'Ascenzo

says past experience shows that

many taxpayers will try to

avoid their obligations during

a recession. The ATO is

promising a crackdown to make

sure all businesses comply with

the law, and therefore compete

on a level playing field. We

have been busy with many industry and trade association

s in developing bench mach

marks. And a bench mark says if

you buy so many inputs, then

the likely outcome of that in

terms of net profit is likely

to be in the order of, say,

X. The Federal Government and

Opposition both eager ly court

the small business community.

Kevin Rudd is promising them a greater voice in Canberra

through an independent advisery

committee. The panel will be a

strong voice for small business

in government. The panel will

be consumentd on the early stages of a policies

development and then as the

proposal is about to be

submitted for final dlib raes. But Malcolm Turnbull says

a more pressing need is for the

Government to reconsider its

award mon modernisation program. This is a process that

is clearly being bungled by the

Government and it will have a

dramatic effect on small

businesses around the

country. And obviously

inevitably cost a lot of

jobs. One move tha received

bipartisan political support is

the Budget mesh tour increase

the bonus deduction that small

businesses receive for

investment in plant and

equipment from 30 to 50

Magistrates Court. Get ing a

lot of inquiries on how to

spend that money, how to yietz

and what benefits to their

business it will be. The tax

incentives that the Rudd

Government has been put forward

are a vents rouse for us but we

don't have an excess of cash

flow for us so we near a

protective mode. And that sums

up the difficulty faced by

policy makers try ing to

enshurj spengedz at a time when

business and consumers are

intent on tightening their

belts. Now a look at tomorrow's

business diary. Shareholders in

Oz Mineral also vote on the

proposed $1.5 billion asset

sale to Minmetals. May's

unemployment numbers are rees

lood. Tasmania's Treasurer will

deliver his State's annual

Budget. In the US, the Federal

Reserve publishes its beige

book of regional economic

activity and the latest retail

sales figures are also

out. Before we go ak & look at

what's making news in the

business sections of tomorrow's

newspapers - the 'Herald Sun'

says the Commonwealth Bank may

raise its mortgage rate ahead

of next month's Reserve Bank

board meeting. The 'Australian'

preview s Oz Minerals

shareholder vote on the

Minmetals deal. The Australian

freerve leads on today's

consumer confidence report. And the 'Sydney Morning Herald'

says Crown has written off a

quarter of a billion US dollar

investment in a Las Vegas

casino development. That's all

for tonight. The footy is up 82

points or 1.8%. The Dow frurts

start a start of up 1.1%. I am

Ali Moore. Goodnight.

Closed Captions by CSI

Angela! Susan! Why don't you take these? Actually they're very nice. Thank you very much. Lovely. Thank you. MOBILE PHONE RINGS Hello? It's been six weeks. We should talk about it. No. No, I don't want to. Bloody hell! Did you see that? Come here. Can't we just go now? Sort it out, then, did you? Are you OK? Yes, I'm fine. Let me drive. I said, I'm fine. Jesus! CAR ALARM SOUNDS Can somebody help? Please! Ambulance. Car park of Savemasters Supermarket, Rayners Lane, Wetherton. Urgently. It's all right, love, ambulance is on its way. Could she have been poisoned? Possibly, but it's something I haven't seen before. Anything showed up in her blood? Nothing we usually test for. The labs are still working on it. Look who's here! Uncle Andy. Hello, love. You told me she wasn't arriving till tonight. I am so sorry, Rosie. How do you get here? Taxi. I brought you these. PHONE RINGS It's great to see you. I'll get it. Dalziel. Yeah. Susan Goodman was poisoned by some chemical called Teltroxin. It's a relative of Sarin. Terrorists? Rosie, stay in the car, OK? I picked a bad day, didn't I? No day you come back is ever a bad one. Why would a terrorist be interested in us? Maybe that's the point. Nobody's interested in a small provincial town, so we're vulnerable. Hello, Mrs. Caulfield. Hi, Jason. OK, Dad, let's start with the frost-damaged roses. You know how to cut them back, don't you? I was gardening before you were born. Don't prune them right back, just cut off the dead flowers. OK? Actually, Jason... Could you look at those pots that your Dad planted the other week, please? I don't like the colours. Shall I paint them all red, then? Why do you let her get to you? I detest that woman, she treats me like shit on her shoe. Dad! You'll lose me the contract. Sorry, Jase. Take no notice. She's the same with everyone. We both know that's not true, Mr Caulfield, but thanks for trying. Sorry, Mr Caulfield. Have you found out anything more about this Teltroxin? It's 200 times more deadly than cyanide. One drop on the skin can kill in 30 minutes. It's not a gas like Sarin. It's liquid. Something an assassin would use? Yes, you have to spray it directly onto the skin though. I can't believe Susan Goodman was on some foreign hit list. I mean, are we saying she was a spook? A Wetherton housewife? Don't be daft. Bloody hell, Christine, look at this. They'll be wanting us to wear daffodils in our hair next. Hello, Mr and Mrs Webster and welcome to the magical world of Arcadia. My name's Brian Fairmile and it'll be my pleasure to be your... Haven't you changed that yet? I can't get rid of him! you experience the life-changing possibilities we have to offer. There. Why are you so bloody useless? I need a drink. Let's see what they've got. Oh, well, there's no beer in here! Ten quid for that! Did he say Susan Goodman? I dunno. Shush, be quiet! Don't you shush me! ON TV: We can now go over to Wetherton... That was me and Susan on our wedding day. And that was when I got her to go camping once, just the once. Do you have any children, Mr Goodman? We had a son. Look at him here... The grown-up, independent lad. He emigrated. Died out in Australia. I'm sorry. Got stung by a jellyfish, drowned. Beautiful things, jellyfish. I keep thinking she's going to come in and bring us a cup of tea. I should have turned my pockets out, there was all bits in the dark washing this morning. She was still cross with me and insisted on pushing the trolley. Would anyone want to harm your wife? Harm Susan? No. She was only ever annoyed with me. Never fell out with anyone in the past? No, not that I know of. We've been married 32 years. It would've been 33 next week. Did Susan have any government or political connections? What?