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Iraq constitution likely to pass -

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(generated from captions) country, there was far less

country, there was far less violence than anticipated. All very welcome

news for a US President who has

staked his leadership on the war in

Iraq. The vote stands in stark

contrast to the attitudes and

philosophy and strategy of al-Qaeda

and its terrorist friends and

killers. We believe in and the

Iraqis believe the best way forward

is through the democratic process.

There's no real surprise in Shia

and Kurdish numbers. They point to

overwhelming support for the

constitution. The key questions

surround Iraq's Sunnis. For months,

their political leaders had

threatened to boycott the vote

before a major party relented last

week. It appears Sunnis did turn

week. It appears Sunnis did turn out at the polls, certainly many more

than voted in elections last

January. The key here is the Sunnis

have voted in large numbers. That

means they're casting their lot now,

with the democratic process. And

with the democratic process. And one way or another, the Iraqis are

way or another, the Iraqis are going to be in a position to move forward.

And the hope is Sunni

And the hope is Sunni participation in the political process will dry

in the political process will dry up support for Iraq's bloody

insurgency. That shows that their

voice matters, that the political

process provides avenues for

affecting the situation, that the

military option is not the right

option. But some analysts say

there's another risk. If in the end

a majority of Sunnis voted against

the constitution, and it passes

anyway, that could feed the anger

anyway, that could feed the anger of insurgents. If Sunnis say, look, we

turned out, we tried to vote, we

tried the system and it didn't work,

then you have the prospect for

Sunnis going nuts . It appears two

Sunni provinces may reject the deal,

but opponents will fall one short

but opponents will fall one short of the third province they need to

the third province they need to vote no to scrap the constitution. The

government says the way ahead won't

be easy. We know well that either

way, if it's a yes or a no, it's

going to be a tough outcome, that

going to be a tough outcome, that we need to handle. We know that there

is a level of polarisation, and

is a level of polarisation, and Iraq as one big family, we know if part

of the family is not happy, you

cannot live in the same house.

Iraq appears to have voted in

favour of a new constitution. Now,

it will have to live with it.

The leader of Pakistani Kashmir has estimated the death toll in last week's earthquake at more than 53,000 as the international relief operation gets back into top gear. Helicopters are once again ferrying supplies to survivors after heavy rain hampered the relief effort over the weekend. The scale of the catastrophe is still being uncovered. Medical teams have visited remote areas of Kashmir and say there are around 2,000 critically ill patients in one valley alone. They are becoming septic. They are lying down on a bed in the cold. They have a little bit of cover over them,

and they have some blankets over them but very little else. So it is not only the cold and the conditions, it is actually their surgical problems that will, in the not-too-distant future, kill them. The official death toll has climbed to just over 40,000 but local authorities believe tens of thousands of bodies are still to be counted. On day one of the trial into the murder of British tourist Peter Falconio,