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(generated from captions) where we see dry ing trends, we

see bushfires but nufrls all

the modelling suggestions and

indeed the observation

suggestions in the other part s

of the world as well, as the

globe warms the risk of severe

fires goes up. We've always had

severe fires in Australia but

the likelihood of them sin

creasing. We saw a really bad

one in the Canberra area in

2003, now we see Victorian

fires in 2009 That is only a

six-year interval, and the

likelihood of these big fires

continues to go up so long as

the climate shifts we're seeing continue. And the best evidence

we have now is that the drying

trend in eastern and southern

Australia although there is

strong evidence of natural

availability, we're seeing a

link with climate change there.

So this is another aspect we're

seeing is in addition to the

big ticket items like sea level

and many location around the

world, extreme events are on

the increase. We would be

expected to increase further so

long as climate keeps shifting

towards the higher temperature

ranges in the future. What is

the latest science you're

hearing over there about

raising temperatures? We have

our heads arn the fact that if

we can avert anything over two

degrees we should be OK. Is

there a suggestion that that is

also out of wlak, that projection? - whack, that

projection: It is still a

number that is being talked

about a lot a the Congress.

Iitithy there is a strong

consenious that anything above two degrees will be dangerous.

We're putting a cap on this

quite strongly in terms of what

we understand from the science,

in terms of the impacts above

2. I have heard arguments that

the numbers below two coulds

will be daing wrous in certain

areas. Particularly those in

the poor parts of the world

where the adaptive commasity is

not as great as here in

Australia. So people are

talking about a degree and a

half could be pretty serious in

parts of the word: Just to put

this in context we're now

seeing since preindustrial

temperatures between 0.67 and

0.8 egrees. There is also

inertia in the climate some so we're committed to further

change even if we cut e

missions tomorrow. That will

rise will bring us to 1.3% so

we're getting close to the 1.5

that people are considering

dangerous. We're now pushing

hard at the two degrees. This

is one of one of the reasons

there is a sense of urgency. It

will take time to turn around

energy systems. This has to be

done over a time frame but the

longer we wait and we put it in

dashon emit ing infrastructure,

the twors problem is gok to

get. In terms of carbon die

oxid concentration traetions

in the atmosphere, what does

2cm means? When you have carbon

dioxide at and we need to cap

carbon dioxide equivalent, we

are . That really does put the

accelerator on in terms of

getting to grips with the

problem. Just briefly, you

return home to Canberra next

week. You're going to be briefing Australia's

politicians. Did you ever x

expect you were going to be

delivering sump damning new

evidence to them? Well, I think the scientific community for

quite a while has suspended

that the climate system can -

suss pecked that the climate

system can move pretty fast. I

think the way we operate is we

want to know we know what we're

talking about before we brief

people on it. We've seen a lot

of papers warning this sort of

thing could happen. There's a

lot of give and take in the

scientific community, we've got

to go through that and through

the care peer review and

there's been such an

acceleration of research in the

three or four years since the

cut-off of the last IPCC that

things that were flagged in the

IPCC - and all these issues

were flagged as possible

frocious the future - we can

now say with more authority and

certainly that the warnings

that the IPCC were given are

start tock realise ted. These

warnings were out theretor a

while, with, we're now more

confident than we were five

year s ago that that we can

stand by these warnings that

were on the radar a little

earlier. Will Steffen, thank

you very much. My pleasure.

Issues an British

politicians have - Irish and British politicians have vowed

that resurgence violence in

Northern Ireland will not

derail the peace process. Two

men, a 17-year-old and a

37-year-old were arrested in

connection with the shooting

death of a policeman near

Belfast on Monday. A dissent

Republican group call ing

itself the Continuity IRA has

claimed responsible. -

spovenlt These people, small

group of evil people, have the

capacity to kill and to maim.

What they don't have is the

capacity to undermine the

advances that we have made in

society and on the island of Ireland. Thousands of people

are expected to turn out for

rallies across Northern Ireland

today to protest against the

killings. Now to the weather -

thunderstorms are possible in

Melbourne, Adelaide, and

Darwin. Showers for Brisbane,

Sydney, Hobart and Perth. Fine

in Canberra. That's all from

us. Lateline Business coming up

in just a moment. If you would

like to look back at tonight's

interview with Will Steffen or review any Lateline stories or

transcripts, you can visit our

website. And now Lateline Business with Ticky Fullerton. Thanks. Tonight -

Citigroup leads a major rally

on Wall Street as the Fed calls

on the banks to start lending

again. If we can do that, then

I think that there's a good

chance the recession will end

later this year and that 2000

so will be a period of

growth. Get - 2010 will be a

period of growth. Business

urged to make the most of the

stimulus package. That will

give a rr significant boost to

our economy. And another

reprieve for an Australian man

in Jersey accused of money

laundserring. Can you just tell

me what do you say to the charges you helped

charges you helped Australians

avoid hundreds of millions of

dollars worth of tax? I have no

comment to make.

First to the marts and

taking the lead from Wall

Street, Australian shares

gained for a third consecutive

session. The All Ords dliem ed

to a one-week high as bargain

stocks. hubtsers sort out bargain

stocks. The ASX 200 jumped 2%

within the start of trade and

stayed there all day. Nikkei

has had its best one-day gain

in six weeks. The hang

essential added 2% but in

London the FTSE has lost ground

and there's more bad news from

UB. - UBS. A short time ago UBS

revised up its net loss, $1 billion,

billion, to $19 billion. US

stocks have had their biggest

one-day rally if four months

after reporting that Citigroup

made a profit in the first two

months of 2009. The upbeat news

on struggling Citigroup was re

rel vood in an internal memory

- revealed in an internal memo

to staff from the CEO who said

he was confident about the

he was confident about the

company. The IMF is saying that

the global economy will shrink

for the first time send the end

of the Second World War. Until

now, the IMF had been

forecasting the global economy

would continue to grow in year,

albeit very slightly. Not

anymore. Managing director

Andrew Strauss

Andrew Strauss says is -

Strauss Khan says the slowdown

could devastate many. The

crisis has hit part those in

the economy but they will kill

people in the poor er kournts

ries Richer nations are

continuing to grapwell the

turmoil. Bevern Bernanke says

America's financial system is

still in disarray. Until we

still in disarray. Until we

stabilise the financial system,

a sustainable economic recovery

will remain out of reach. The

Fed chief is calling for much tighter financial

relationslations. He is also

worried that many of America's

troubled banks are considered

too big to fail pl. Bernanke

says this belief encourages

excessive risk

taking. Moreover, if Government

rescues are too big to fail

terms can be costly to taxpayers

taxpayers as we have seen

recently. Indeed in the present

crisis the too big to fail

issue has enerjd as an enormous

problem. One bank in this

category is Citigroup. They've

stunned investors but revealing

it's made a profit over the

last two months and the bank

says an infusion of government

money has dramatically improved

its capital position. The Dow

Jones soared, the biggest one

day rally of what's been a

depress ing year. The market

was so oversold that it really

doesn't cause a lot to cause

the shorts to get nervous an

you get some very powerful rallies. I don't know that

we're out of the woods but it

feels good. Investors have also

been buoyed by this

been buoyed by this

analysis. It depends critically

on our ability to get the bank

and the financial system more

broadly not necessarily back to

2005 but back to a situation

where the markets are

reasonably stable and they can

perform their critical function

of providing credit to the

economy. If we can do that, I

think there's a good chance

that the recession will ends

later this year and 2010 will

be a period of growth. But Mr

be a period of growth. But Mr

Bernanke warn s his forecasting

record of late has been been

that grae. After the big games

on - gains on Wall Street, what

about the markets here? Earlier

I spoke to Martin Lakos of

Macquarie Private wealth. Ben

Bernanke's talk about being out

of a recession by year end, and

Citigroup's managing to turn a

profit in the last two months

lit a wick under Wall Street. Is that behind

Is that behind the rally? Apart

from being a very oversold

market having 16 consecutive

falls so the month of February and early March has been

terrible in terms of

performance. We're looking for

a catalyst to rebound some what

and with Bernanke putting to

some ex tent a time line with

regards to the end of the

recession has inspired the

market to rally. Obviously we

really have to wait to see how

really have to wait to see how

that pans out. Which also saw

that in Citigroup two months of

profitability was a surprise to

everyone and that inspired the

rest of the US financial sector

to rally behind. That and the

rest of the sector was up 16%.

That has rubbed off on our

market as well. In Australia

mining stocks have put on

another strong performance is

that just also off the optimism in the

in the snu>> our muns stocks

have been doing well in the

last three trading days. BHP

closed at $30.72, up 4% or

$1.22. There does appear to be

some nus an - news and a bit of

investor confidence that coking

coal and iron ore prices may be

stable ides. There is some news

coming out of commn but there

coming out of commn but there

might be re building of

important stock piles and that

is inspiring investors that may

be the big sell-off in

commodity prices we've seen in

the last 12 months may be not

necessarily coming to an end

but we're seeking a pick-up in ternary glass regards too

demand. Are we starting to see

the beginnings of a rotation

out of defensive stocks? It is

very early days yet but

certainly I think post this

certainly I think post this

reporting season we've had, the

market is clearly raking over

the coals of the positive

surprises verse use the

negative surprises. There

appears to be a bit more focus

on the companies earning

positive certainty. Toll

Holdings, a couple of days

prior to its result, the stock

was down at $4.38. Today's

close at $5.80. And

close at $5.80. And large ly

driven by the fact that the market is more comfortable with

the earnings of toll and

comfortable with the balance

sheet. So that stock has

rallied 30% in two weeks. So

the market is now starting to

prepare to reward those

companies that are showing sustainable earnings growth

going forward. And what's happening with the Australian

dollar? Aussie dollar,hood ing

64 cents. The key for the

Aussie dollar will be commodity

Aussie dollar will be commodity

prices which is a large part of

the recession. If you look

against the cash rates against

the US and Europe, broadly

speaking the Aussie dollar is

still a high yielding kurnry -

currency. If there is another

rate cut that will I re move

some of the support for the

Aussie dollar. At this point in

time it's a bit of a state of

flux. If rates come off, that remains

remains some of the support for

the dollar. A weaker dollar

will be great for Australian ex

ports. Good to have some better

news. Thank you. To if other

major movers on our market

today - with investors buying

back into financial stock, AMP

rose over 6%. Macquarie Group

gained 4.5%. Qantas has

announced it will share some weekly

weekly middle eastern flight.

And can west is nearly its

deadline to renegotiate its

$4.5 billion debt.

The continuing barrage of

gloomy economic news might be

starting to lose its impact on Australian consumer confidence. The

Westpac-Melbourne Institute

survey found that sentiment

fell by just 0.2% in March, the

better than expected result has

been put down to falling interest rates and the Federal

Government's $42 billion

Government's $42 billion stimulus package. And cashing

in on the Government's

increased grants scheme, first home buyers are flooding back

into the housing market. The

value of owner occupied loans

rose 3.5% in January to $19

billion, with first home buyers

accounting for a record 26% of

total financing. And the

Government largesse continues -

the next stage of its stimulus

package began today, with Centrelink

Centrelink distributing one-off

$950 cash handouts to families

and pensioners. And businesses

have until the end of the tax

year to cash in on their cut of

Government stimulus package.

The small and general business

tax break offers firms a 30%

tax deduction for equipment

purchased before July. The tax

break is designed to kick start

business investment but there

is concern many companies are

is concern many companies are

un aware of their entitlements.

Neal Woolrich reports. Business

investment has been a key part

of Australia's recent economic

prosper ity. But there are

fears it could contract sharply

and push Australia into a

deeper downturn. As part of its

plan to cushion the economy,

the Federal Government

announced a tax break for

businesses that purchase

equipment this calendar

year. That will give a very significant boost

significant boost to our economy. The legislation, when

passed, would let businesses

claim a tach deduction equal to

30% of the cost of capital

equipment acquired before July

or 10% for purchases made

between July and December.

That's on top of any deprecious

claims the business could make

against the items. The full

deduction translates to an

extra $900 tax save

extra $900 tax save ing for

every $10,000 spent. The

measure is really a free kick

from the Government to

stimulate investment, to en

courage business to bring

forward investment decisions or

at least not postpone them

which tends to happen when the

economic conditions are

down. Notwithstanding those tax

incentives, businesses still need to

need to make a commercial case for the investment and that

could be the sticking points in

this troubled environment. It's

tough the term s of getting

finance. You have to look at

your cash flow, your budgeting,

all things to see that your

business is in good shape

because you may well have to

finance it and front the Banks

and the banks are looking at

things with great er scruet ni

these days. The proposed measure mays will be suffering

measure mays will be suffering

from a lack of publicity.

Several small and medium firms approached by Lateline Business

were un aware that the tax

break is becoming available.

Even though the measure has bipartisan support, some

companies may be unwilling to

commit to new expenditure until

the law is passed. National

Australia Bank general manager

of agribusiness Khan Horne says

it's a worth while attempt to

limit the downturn. This package

package will help. There is no

doubt about that. This package

- 30% is attractive. It will

bring decisions forward. Just

after 30 June it is still 10%.

It will be a stimulus that

would for the SMEs and

agribusiness will assist. The

Government expects the mesh lur

cost $2.7 billion over four

years. But, like so many other

parts of the economic stimulus

debate tlrkts will be no way

debate tlrkts will be no way to

accurately assess how effective

the measure has in fact been. The stimulus package is

one of the many issues under

discussion at the Taxation

Institute of Australia's

national convention in Sydney

this week. A short while ago I

spoke with its President, Joan

Roberts. Welcome to Lateline

Business, Thank you. Can I ask

you first about Neal Woolrich's

story. This tax break for

story. This tax break for

businesses, will it be taken up

well, do you think? I think it

will be when people get to know

about it. It seems to be an

issue that lots of small businesses don't know a lot

about it. How could the message

get out? Obviously as more tax

agents and advisors come to

know about it. But we do think

that there are some difficulties with both the

scope of it and the timing of

it. Times

it. Times perhaps is a problem

because 30 June is coming up

very quickly. Yes, indeed. Do

you think 30% is enough or

perhaps that 30% should be

extended from July to December,

is that what you're

saying? That would see a lot

more people taking it up. What

about the other things that

Government might be able to

address through the Budget

rather than wait until the tax review

review itself? There are a number of things and the

Government has already made a

concession with taxation funds

and announced some weeks ago

now that the minimum amounts

for pension payments have been

reduced by 50%. Do you consider that on the superannuation

front that is a tick for

Government? I think that's a good initiative for Government.

It will help

It will help people to manage

their superannuation better

with troubling times coming.

They won't have to be forced to

sell down shares to ensure the

minimum amounts of paid this

year. And for small businesses,

PAYG, anything there? Certainly

we would like to see more

flexibility in people being

able to vary their tax instalments. We have

instalments. We have the tax

review coming out at the end of

the year. But obviously the

economic crisis has had a huge

impact on the market. Do you

think it will also have an

impact on what is being

considered and indeed the

recommendations to come out of

the Ken Henry review? I am sure

it will impact on the things

that are being put to the

review panel. Of course

review panel. Of course this

review is about the 30-year

future. So it's a long time and

hopefully the economic

conditions are very short term

within that time frame. But

nevertheless you have got

presumably the tax basis that

last year were enormous -

things like capital gains

things like capital gains tax

and taxes like a GST, if

consumption goes down those are

going to be shrinking or

certainly not growing at the

same rate. They've got different challenges, haven't

they? Certainly but that is the

Government's immediate

challenge whereas the Henry

review is to set up the tax

system for Australia for the

next 30 year. Ken Henry in his editorial said

editorial said yesterday

dealing with complex ity is a

complex issue in itself. Do you

think they are really going to

do much about reducing complex

ity? - complexity? We certainly

hope so. That's one of our

major submissions to the Ken

Henry review. Are there easier

ways for it to be done? There

is still a lot

is still a lot of complexity

and you might think about

different ways between the

social welfare system and

taxes. I should ask you about

tax and climate change. The

CPRS exposure draft legislation

was released yesterday. Are you

happy with it? We're

disappointed that there's still

going to be GST on permits.

going to be GST on permits. We

think that is unfortunate. Why?

Because you feel that the cost

could actually end up going

through the to the

consumer? Absolutely, yes. It's

a large cost to business that's

in the system and somehow or

another that has to be - come

through the other end and consumers will

consumers will bear that cost.

Some of it is just churn, it's

holding cost but still it is an

expense. Are there other ways

around this? Are there other precedents already around the

world on this? Yes. In New

Zealand, which is a very good

example because un like our GST

system the consumption tax in

New Zealand is almost

universal. It applies to food

and education for example yet

they have an exception for

carbon trading permits. Joan

Roberts, thank you very talking

to us Thank you, it's a

pleasure. The disgraced Wall

Street tycoon Bernard Madoff

has been charged over a

multibillion-dollar fraud that

could see him jailed for the

rest of his life. The

70-year-old former Nasdaq

chairman is accused of fe de frauding clients of at least

frauding clients of at least

$100 billion. Madoff appeared

in a New York court on 11

charges relating to a pyramid

scheme in which he stole from

300 million investors. His

lawyer said that his client

would plead guilty but was

adamant there was no plea

bargain. An Australian man has

avoided extradition from the

island of Jersey in the British

Channel Islands. Philip de

Channel Islands. Philip de

Figueiredo is accused of

helping wealthy Australians

avoid hundreds of millions of

dollars in tax. He was arrested

in December as part of

Operation Wickenby and a court

in Jersey has moved his

extradition hearing to June.

Emma Alberici reports from

Jersey. First it was the jersey cows that put this island on

the map. These days it's the

cash cows. The banks are the

life blood of the town. Jersey's tax haven

Jersey's tax haven status means

the banking sector now

represents 60% of its economy.

It's here in this Bayside house

with views to France that

authorities found the man they

allege masterminded hundreds of

millions of dollars worth of

tax avoidance schemes for

wealthy Australians. This is the fourth time Philip de

Figueiredo has come to Jersey's

Magistrates Court seeking to avoid extradition

avoid extradition to

Australia. In an overnight

hearing, he Baz granted another

3-month retrieve preef. Were

you pleased with the outcome? I

have got no comment to make. I

have told you it is not

appropriate for me to make any

comment at this stage. Can you

just tell me what do you say to

the charges that you helped Australians avoid hundreds of

millions of dollars worth of

tax? I have no comment to make. Sorry. I've been told it

Sorry. I've been told it is not

appropriate to make any comment at this stage. Since Operation

Wickenby was launched five

years ago, 40 people have been

arrested but just one has gone

to jail. Music promoter Glenn

Wheatley. The extradition

process is being handled by the

island's Attorney-General on

behalf of the Australian

Government. Over the years,

we've built up a very good professional

professional relationship with

the Australian authorities. The

global financial crisis has

focussed increasing Government

attention on tax havens like

this one. The British Prime

Minister, Gordon Brown, has vow

ud to make offshore banking a

key agenda item at next month's

G20 summit in London. During the economic low those

splashing out on a holiday

appear to be opting for high

seas. Prepaid accommodation,

seas. Prepaid accommodation, entertainment and unlimited

buffets have attracted cruise

passengers on board in record

numbers. 330,000 Australians

took to a floating holiday in

2008 - an increase of 26%. The

Australasia and South Pacific

region remains the most popular

destination for Australians

with cruising in Europe coming

in second. However, the release

of the figure s coincides with

the global fall in tourism and

will do little to offset the

declining numbers of tourists

visitsing Australia. Global

technology giant IBM has call on the Rudd Government to focus

on Australia's digital

infrastructure as it tries to

stimulate the economy in the

face of the global economic

rrtion. It says Australia is -

recession. It says Australia is

full of dumb systems which are

hindering productivity growth

and holding the country back.

Andrew Robertson reports.

Andrew Robertson reports. As

the Federal Government's spends

up big to try to keep Australia

out of recession, IBM's

Australian chief says it's time

to seize if moment and embrace

technology to build for the

future. Building power grids

that are efficient, building

health systems that look at

electronic health records,

building water srges building

transport system pos the

future. Mr Boreham says sauce full of

full of what he call s dumb systems which

systems which Mr Boreham says

will drive big savings and

greater efficiency. If we could

just squeeze 5% more efficiency

out of the power grids, you

would think of how much less

therefore we have to generate

and then the benefits to that

to both the provider, the

to both the provider, the consumer and of course the

environment. And according to

leading economists, Ric Simes

from Access Economics, bringing

Australia's key infrastructure

systems into the digital age

will give a much needed boost

to Australia's productivity. In

the 1990s, total productivity

growth averaged around 2% a

year in Australia. In this

decade it has fallen back to

around 0.5% a year. Lots of

around 0.5% a year. Lots of

things are going on but that I

think is the reflection at

least in part of a slowing in

the pace of reform. Mr Simes says the global financial

crisis is a wonderful

opportunity for the Government

to restore that pace of reform,

pointing to the precedence from

the recessions of the early

1980s and 1990s. In the early

'90s, a whole series of re

forms came out of that

forms came out of that

recession. Things like the

establishment of enterprise

bargain ing on a much firmer

basis, things like the

establishment of competition re

forms under Hilmer, the reform

of the electricity market and

the like. The principles

outlined by Glenn Boreham and

Ric Simes are already at work

in the drought stricken

Murray-Darling River basin.

Profession Ivan Mareels has

been working at improving water

efficiency in the Basin for the

past 10 years with the water

system around the NSW town of

Colleambaly now totally

computerised. The farmer now

asks for water, we can check is

that in your allocation, the

farmer can get the water. Then

the system can say, OK, this

farmer needs that amount of

water, it is available on the

system we can deliver it and we

can compute in advance because

we understand how the water

moves when he can have that water, typically within two

hours. Equally important water

usage has fallen 20%. If that

could be achieved over the whole Murray-Darling system it

would equate to 1.5 times the

water yaus of Melbourne, making

Farming much mosh sustainable.

Now a look at tomorrow's

business diary. And top billing goes to National Australia

Bank's investor briefing. Last

month's unemployment statistics

are out. Chinese retail sells

numbers are released along with

the latest German industrial

production report and from the

US the latest retail sales

figures are also out. A look at

what is making news in the

business sections of tomorrow's newspapers. The 'Herald Sun'

looks at today' equity marketral dwri. The

'Australian' says despite the

massive fall in price thermal

coal mine verse struck a good

deal with Japanese steel mills.

The Australian 'Financial

Review' leads on the same story and the 'Sydney Morning Herald'

says there is a slump in

Chinese exports. As I leave you

in lo, London the FTSE is down

11 points and it appears as if

Wall Street could be in for

another solid day of trading

with the Dow futures up 43

point 0.0.5%. If you want to review any part of tonight's

program, you can visit our

website where you can watch the

entire program online or down -

download it as a vodcast. I am

Ticky Fullerton. Goodnight.

Closed Captions by CSI

OPERA PLAYING INSIDE Mrs Redfern? Yes. How nice to meet you. You mean you're Martin Barrett. Yes. I think we both expected someone a little different. The only thing that puzzles me is, out of the nine girls who were there, why choose me? Well, research. The key to any successful enterprise. You've been poking your nose into my business. Well, I suppose that's one way of putting it. And what did your research tell you? That for the most part, those girls were pretty insipid. Then your name came up. A bit of an unknown quantity. Independent ways.

Wayward, you mean.



Who is that? DUET CLIMAXES



Morning, sir. Morning. One blast through the window and good night Martin William Barrett, aged 43. Who reported it? Anonymous male, sir. He rang the station at six this morning from the box on the corner. Hello, George. I thought you were supposed to be in France. But for his nibs here, we would have been. People are funny, aren't they? He shot the poor devil to kingdom come from outside, and then put the window back on the catch. Funny, George? Cool, calm and bloody terrifying. Ready to sign him off, Doctor Bullard? What else? Oh... Er... He was a widower, worked for the council. Had very few friends and didn't go out much. All according to the milkman. He would know, would he? Not as much as he thinks. Barrett had a houseguest last night.

He left in a hurry. SHE left in a hurry. There's makeup on these tissues in the bin. Tony... Couldn't have been the girlfriend, though, or she wouldn't be in the spare room. Mother? Daughter? Sister? Why does this place make me feel uncomfortable, sir? Oh, a sensitive lad like you, it must be the body in the kitchen. I can handle that, sir. Maybe it's his taste in music. Mario Lanza's very good.

I think it's the pathological neatness of this place. There's no clutter, there's no unanswered letters. No silly ornaments. Nothing out of place. Not even a mark on his blotter.