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Tuesday, 7 October 2003
Page: 20731


Mr Murphy asked the Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources, upon notice, on 24 June 2003:

Can he provide an estimate of the proportion of Australian petroleum supplies that will be sourced from indigenous reserves by (a) 2005, (b) 2010, and (c) 2020; if so, how confident is he that these estimates are correct; if not, why not.


Mr Ian Macfarlane (Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources) —The answer to the honourable member's question is as follows:

Notwithstanding that the information which the member seeks is otherwise publicly available, petroleum consists of crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas and condensate (a liquid, similar to crude oil, recovered from gas fields). All supplies of both liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas are expected to be sourced from indigenous supplies in the years specified.

Future Australian crude oil and condensate production rates at various probability levels are estimated by Geoscience Australia, and future Australian consumption of crude oil and condensate is estimated by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), as follows. It should be noted that because of geography and the composition of Australian oil, a large proportion of domestic consumption is met by imported feedstock and similarly a large proportion of Australian production is exported. The proportion of Australian domestic demand quoted below takes into account the net effect of imports and exports. The probability level refers to the chance that production will exceed that number.

(a) In 2005: Production from indigenous reserves (at the 50% probability level) is estimated at 452 thousand barrels per day, consumption in Australia is estimated at 771 thousand barrels per day. The proportion sourced from indigenous reserves is 58.6%.

(b) In 2010: Production from indigenous reserves (at the 50% probability level) is estimated at 458 thousand barrels per day, consumption in Australia is estimated at 850 thousand barrels per day. The proportion sourced from indigenous reserves is 53.8%.

(c) In 2015: Production from indigenous reserves (at the 50% probability level) is estimated at 325 thousand barrels per day, consumption in Australia is estimated at 951 thousand barrels per day. The proportion sourced from indigenous reserves is 34.2%.

No estimates for crude oil and condensate production for 2020 are currently available, but a new forecast to 2020 will be finalised this year.

The reliability of the production estimates is reflected in the spread of the estimates as different probability levels; for example, the estimates at the 90% and 10% probability levels in 2015 are 215 thousand barrels per day and 475 thousand barrels per day respectively.