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Friday, 28 November 1986
Page: 4044

(Question No. 4847)


Mr Cobb asked the Minister representing the Minister for Industry, Technology and Commerce, upon notice, on 23 October 1986:

(1) Has the Minister's attention been drawn to page 197 of volume 1 of the IAC Report No. 386 on the textile, clothing and footwear industries where an estimate is given on how much more consumers paid for textile, clothing and footwear purchases in 1982-83 than they would have paid had there been no barrier assistance.

(2) Is the Minister able to provide a corresponding estimate for 1986-87; if not, is the Minister able to say whether the figure for 1986-87 would be more or less than the 1982-83 estimate.

(3) Has the Minister's attention been drawn to page 198 of the report which states that under the IAC's preferred option up to 3 jobs could be created elsewhere in the economy for each job lost in the textile, clothing and footwear industries.

(4) Does the Minister have evidence to substantiate this claim; if so, can the Minister provide it.

(5) If the Commission's conclusion cannot be substantiated, what is the Minister's estimation of the number of jobs that could be created elsewhere in the economy for each job lost in the textile, clothing and footwear industries.


Mr Barry Jones —The Minister for Industry, Technology and Commerce has provided the following answer to the honourable member's question:

(1) Yes.

(2) No. The information required to produce an estimate of the additional payments made by consumers for domestically produced and imported goods during 1986-87 as a result of barrier assistance will not be available until some time after the end of this financial year.

At present, 1982-83 is the most recent year for which the Industries Assistance Commission (IAC) has published estimates of these additional consumer payments. However, the IAC will shortly be publishing estimates of assistance to manufacturing (including the additional consumer payments) for 1983-84 and 1984-85. Due to the increased level of local production in recent years and the effects of inflation, estimates of additional consumer payments in 1983-84 and 1984-85 are expected to exceed those published for earlier years.

(3) Yes.

(4) The statement in the IAC's Report No. 386, Page 198, reflects the Commission's judgement about the possible extent of job creation. The IAC used the ORANI model of the Australian economy to examine two different wage scenarios and their effect. The IAC's Report, Vol 3, Appendix W, Table 5.1, Page W-83, substantiates the results of these sensitivity tests. Use of models such as ORANI provides an econometric framework to examine responses to assistance changes.

(5) Not applicable, see (3) and (4) above.