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Wednesday, 9 May 2012
Page: 3056

Uranium Exports

(Question No. 1787)

Senator Ludlam asked the Minister representing the Minister for Resources and Energy, upon notice , on 27 March 2012:

With reference to paragraph 12 of the answer to question on notice no. 1566 (Senate Hansard, 22 March 2012, proof p. 113), can the general background information supplied by the department, relating to India's potential uranium demand and the forecast expansion of its nuclear sector, be provided.

Senator Chris Evans: The Minister for Resources and Energy has provided the following answer to the honourable senator's question:

Indian demand for uranium is currently relatively modest at approximately 1,539 t U3O8 in 2011 [Source: World Nuclear Association]. IAEA forecasts suggest that demand will remain low until 2015.

Looking out to 2030, India is planning to rapidly increase its nuclear power generating capacity. In addition to the 20 nuclear reactors currently in operation (4.4 GWe), India has six reactors (4.6 GWe) under construction and another 17 reactors (15 GWe) planned [World Nuclear Association, January 2012]. The IAEA forecasts India's demand for uranium to increase to between 3,600 - 9,400 t U3O8 by 2030.

India currently has 20 nuclear power reactors producing 4.4GWe electricity and has plans to increase nuclear power capacity to at least 20 GWe by 2020 and 63 GWe by 2030. India has little indigenous uranium reserves and has attributed the restarting of some older nuclear reactors and overall increased levels of nuclear power generation during 2010 to the availability of imported uranium. The World Nuclear Association estimates that India will require approximately 1,500 tonnes of uranium oxide in 2011.

The increase in Indian uranium demand around 2020 is likely to correspond with increases in Australian uranium supply as new mines in South Australia and Western Australia are developed. This could provide Australian uranium producers with the opportunity to secure a large fraction of the Indian uranium market.

Projected Uranium demand (t U3O8)

	2011	2015 forecast	2020 forecast
India	1539*	1663 - 2983^	2394 - 4788^
China	4810*	5,425 - 7,606^	7606—9670^
World Wide	81,334*	84,864 - 93,927^	90,708 - 107,836^

* WNA figures January 2012

^ IAEA low and high forecasts—Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand

However if China's stated goal capacity of 60GWe by 2020 (WNA) was achieved demand would be approximately 12,735 t U3O8.