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Wednesday, 11 August 2004
Page: 26105


Senator NETTLE (11:06 AM) —The latest CIE report predicts, on page 85:

... employment losses in a large number of manufacturing industries including: textiles; wearing apparel; wood products; paper products, publishing; petroleum, coal products; chemical, rubber, plastic; mineral products (other); ferrous metals; metal products; transport equipment; and machinery.

So I am interested to hear the minister saying that is the report on which the government is relying in saying that there will be 30,000 new jobs created. The Victorian Department of Premier and Cabinet commissioned a study from the Centre of Policy Studies which came to the conclusion that, with respect to Australia's auto and component industry, the US-Australia free trade agreement will lead to over 1,100 full- and part-time jobs being lost from the motor vehicles and parts industry in the long run and that around 800 of these will come from Melbourne and almost 200 from the Barwon region. Modelling commissioned by the South Australian government from the Allens Consulting Group also found there would be likely job losses and contraction in South Australia's automotive and auto component industry.

The University of Michigan analysis of the free trade agreement between Australia and the United States predicted a reduction of output and employment in many Australian industries, including agriculture; mining; leather products and footwear; wood and wood products; chemicals; non-metallic mining products; metal products; transportation and equipment; machinery and equipment; other manufactures; electricity, gas and water; construction; and government services. So I am wondering whether the government has any view other than that of the CIE report, which predicted employment losses in all of these areas. Is that the only study that the government is relying on as to whether or not there will be job losses as a result of the US-Australia free trade agreement?