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Tuesday, 28 November 2006
Page: 199


Mr Kelvin Thomson asked the Minister representing the Minister for the Environment and Heritage, in writing, on 12 September 2006:

(1)   Has the Minister been advised on the economic cost of reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2050; if so, what advice has the Minister received.

(2)   Has the Minister been advised on the economic cost of not reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2050; if so, what advice has the Minister received.

(3)   Has the Minister sought external advice on the impact of climate change upon Australia’s economy; if so, when will the Minister publicly release this advice.

(4)   According to projections made by the Department of the Environment and Heritage, by which year(s) will Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions begin to decline.

(5)   What proportion of Australia’s vulnerable, threatened and endangered species, and ecological communities, will be adversely influenced by climate change.

(6)   What is the projected number of indigenous flora and fauna extinctions between 2006 and (a) the year(s) that Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decline and (b) the year(s) that Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to return to 1990 levels.


Mr Truss (Minister for Trade) —The Minister for the Environment and Heritage has provided the following answer to the honourable member’s question:

(1)   The Department has not commissioned advice on or provided me with its assessment of the economic cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Department has provided me with briefing for my information, on reports that sought to estimate the economic cost of reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The reports by the Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change - The Business Case for Early Action; and ABARE - The Economic Impact of Climate Change Policy: the Role of Technology and Economic Instruments are in the public domain. The Department’s briefing noted the findings of these reports and that their estimates of costs vary according to the assumptions and scenarios used in their respective economic analysis. One scenario modelled by ABARE closely mirrors that proposed by the Australian Labor Party. It concluded that:

  • Petrol prices would double
  • GDP growth would be 11% lower
  • Real wages would be 21% lower
  • Oil and gas production would fall by 60%
  • Coal production would be down 32%
  • Electricity output would fall by 23%
  • Agriculture would decline by 44%

(2)   No.

(3)   No.

(4)   The Department prepares annual projections that estimate Australia’s greenhouse emissions out to 2020. The 2005 projections (the most recent available) estimate that Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors will be 122 per cent of 1990 by 2020. This includes projected emissions savings of 114 Mt CO2-e from Australian Government and other programmes. In the absence of these measures, Australia’s projected emissions are estimated to be 143 per cent of 1990 by 2020. The projected growth in Australia’s emissions reflects a number of factors including strong economic growth, the fact that Australia unlike many developed countries has a growing population, the energy intensive export driven nature of our economy and the large distances that it is necessary to transport goods.

(5)   The Government recognises that climate change is likely to have an adverse impact on a number of vulnerable, threatened and endangered species and ecological communities. However, it is not possible to accurately estimate what proportion will be adversely affected.

(6)   No such projections are available.