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Thursday, 23 June 2005
Page: 256


Mr Tanner asked the Treasurer, in writing, on 11 May 2005:

(1)   Does the Australian Government have an estimate of when global oil production is likely to peak; if so, in what year does the Government expect this will occur.

(2)   Does the Government have an estimate of the likely rate of annual decline in production after global oil production passes its peak; if so, what are the details.

(3)   Does the Government have estimates of the impact on global oil prices of a continuing decline in global oil production; if so, what are they.

(4)   Has the Government undertaken any economic modelling to determine the consequences for the Australian economy of very large and sustained increases in global oil prices; if so, what are the outcomes of that modelling.


Mr Costello (Treasurer) —The answer to the honourable member’s question is as follows:

(1)   The Department of the Treasury does not generate estimates of whether global oil production will peak, or when, and at what level, such a peak is likely. Such work may have been undertaken by other Australian Government departments or organisations.

(2)   The Department of the Treasury does not generate estimates of oil production. Other Australian Government departments or organisations may generate oil production estimates.

(3)   The Department of the Treasury does not generate estimates of the impact of oil production on oil prices. Other Australian Government departments or organisations may generate price projections.

(4)   The Government’s budget forecasts incorporate the expected impact of oil prices on the Australian economy. The impact of the recent sustained increase in oil prices has been incorporated into the economic outlook contained in the 2005-06 Budget.