Mr JOHN COBB (2:38 PM) —My question is addressed to the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Transport and Regional Services. Would the minister update the House on the drought situation across Australia? What do the most recent weather forecasts for the coming months indicate?

Mr ANDERSON (Minister for Transport and Regional Services) —I thank the honourable member for his question and note his understandable concern about this very important matter affecting a lot of Australians. As we get up for some weeks, we are entering a critical phase in terms of sowing rains for winter crops, pasture for winter and also water storage systems—particularly in the Murray-Darling Basin, which is where more than 50 per cent of Australia's food and fibre is produced. There has been some widespread and very welcome rain over the last month, but it cannot be said that the drought has broken; there are some worrying factors out there. In central Victoria, towns in the Goulburn Valley have gone onto the highest level of water restrictions, with all outdoor water use banned. The catchments there are certainly in desperate need of rain. In south-east Queensland, some centres, like Dalby, have had good rain—around 20 inches, I understand—but the heavy rains missed most of the sowing country, and through the south-western Darling Downs crops and pastures are barely holding on. Yesterday, the New South Wales state drought coordinator described the situation west of the divide as desperate, and pointed out that it is now a month since rain fell and that pastures have browned off or disappeared again. As he pointed out, if there is not more rain soon it will be too late for pasture growth and for sowing rain.

In terms of the forecasts, they are mixed. The good news is—I make the comment, since there is little interest on the other side—that there are a large number of Australians who are very concerned indeed about the weather. It is a very real issue for them. The met office is indicating that El Nino appears to be moving to a neutral phase, and that is encouraging. While the regeneration cannot be ruled out, it is very unlikely. The seasonal rainfall outlook from the bureau's National Climate Centre shows that there is a 60 to 75 per cent chance of above median rainfall in the south-east corner of Queensland and much of the eastern part of New South Wales. The chances of good rain fall away quickly, however, as you look north and west in Queensland and south and west in New South Wales, while the outlook is, at this stage, very much hanging in the balance for the southern part of New South Wales and into Victoria.

The level of Commonwealth drought assistance continues to increase—something like 75 per cent of the Australian agricultural land mass is now covered under the drought measures, including the December declaration, interim EC assistance and full EC declaration. There are 18 areas across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia covered by either a prima facie or full EC declaration. Some 7,300 farmers have received help or are continuing to receive help on an ongoing basis. It is anticipated that current applications will provide some $900 million worth of assistance, but of course there is no substitute for good drought-breaking rain. We sincerely hope that happens over the next month.